The latest India Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 12.59% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 10.13% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia. In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. India's share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 12.78%, while its share of production is put at 10.84%. By 2014 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 17.52%, with the country accounting for 13.42% of supply. We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 ' compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009. Indian real GDP growth is assumed by BMI to be 7.8% in 2010, with an annual average of 8.0% forecast in 2010-2014. State oil firm Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which in 2010 averages an estimated 830,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, we see production peaking at around 950,000b/d by 2012. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 4-5% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 3.80mn b/d by 2014. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 2.90mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas consumption is set to rise from an estimated 63bcm in 2010 to 110bcm, with domestic supply up from around 45bcm in 2010 to at least 70bcm by 2014. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Indian oil production of 2.41%, with crude volumes peaking in 2012 at 950,000b/d, then falling steadily to reach 850,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 42.27%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 4.45mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 45bcm in 2010 to a possible 95bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 163.6%, India is likely to be importing up to 72bcm per annum of gas by the end of the period, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provide regional and country-specific projections. India is ranked second, behind Australia, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table, leading China as a result of a good performance in both the upstream and downstream segments. India now ranks second ahead of Vietnam in BMI's upstream Business Environment Ratings, with a strong resource position being offset s

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India Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Published on August 2010
Report Summary
The latest India Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 12.59% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by
2014, while providing 10.13% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn
b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to
average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly,
because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 13.07mn b/d.
This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be
China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted
for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm
to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. India's share of gas consumption in 2010 is an
estimated 12.78%, while its share of production is put at 10.84%. By 2014 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 17.52%, with
the country accounting for 13.42% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at
almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an
average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price
of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl,
against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 ' compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For
global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Indian real GDP growth is assumed by BMI to be 7.8% in 2010, with an annual average of 8.0% forecast in 2010-2014. State oil firm
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which in 2010 averages an estimated
830,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, we see production peaking at around 950,000b/d by 2012. Oil
consumption is forecast to increase by 4-5% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 3.80mn b/d by 2014. The import requirement
would therefore be approximately 2.90mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas consumption is set to rise from an estimated
63bcm in 2010 to 110bcm, with domestic supply up from around 45bcm in 2010 to at least 70bcm by 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Indian oil production of 2.41%, with crude volumes peaking in 2012 at
950,000b/d, then falling steadily to reach 850,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 42.27%,
with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 4.45mn b/d by 2019. Gas
production is expected to rise from an estimated 45bcm in 2010 to a possible 95bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 163.6%, India
is likely to be importing up to 72bcm per annum of gas by the end of the period, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year
forecasts can be found later in this report, which provide regional and country-specific projections.
India is ranked second, behind Australia, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table, leading China as a result of a
good performance in both the upstream and downstream segments. India now ranks second ahead of Vietnam in BMI's upstream
Business Environment Ratings, with a strong resource position being offset somewhat by extensive state involvement, a limited
competitive landscape and only a moderate risk environment. The country sits 14 points behind Australia and just one ahead of
Vietnam. The country ranks second, just one behind China, in BMI's downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its status
as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is six
points ahead of Australia, with no threat from the more mature Asian energy economy.
India Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010 Page 1/6

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Table of Content
Executive Summary ...... 7
SWOT Analysis .... 9
India Political SWOT ........ 9
India Economic SWOT .... 10
India Business Environment SWOT .... 11
India Energy Market Overview ........ 12
Global Oil Market Outlook ..... 15
Trouble On The Horizon ...... 15
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 19
Table: Oil Price Forecasts ........ 20
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ..... 20
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)......... 21
Regional Energy Market Overview . 22
Oil Supply And Demand ....... 22
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) ....... 23
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 24
Oil: Downstream .. 25
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 25
Gas Supply And Demand ..... 26
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 26
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) ... 27
Liquefied Natural Gas 28
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) .. 28
Business Environment Ratings ...... 29
Asia Pacific Region .... 29
Composite Scores.. 30
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating ......... 30
Upstream Scores ... 31
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating. 31
India Upstream Rating ' Overview ..... 32
India Upstream Rating ' Rewards ...... 32
India Upstream Rating ' Risks . 32
Downstream Scores ........ 33
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating ....... 33
India Downstream Rating ' Overview 34
India Downstream Rating ' Rewards . 34
India Downstream Rating ' Risks ....... 34
Business Environment ......... 35
Legal Framework ....... 35
Infrastructure ... 37
Labour Force ... 38
Foreign Investment Policy ... 39
Tax Regime ...... 41
Security Risk .... 41
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 43
Oil And Gas Reserves 43
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Oil Supply And Demand ....... 43
Gas Supply And Demand ..... 45
CBM....... 47
LNG ....... 48
Refining And Oil Products Trade ... 49
Revenues/Import Costs......... 49
Table: India Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts ....... 50
Other Energy ... 51
Table: India Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts ...... 58
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .... 58
Long-Term Energy Outlook . 58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure .... 59
Oil Refineries ... 59
Table: Refineries In India ......... 59
Service Stations 61
Oil Storage Facilities . 61
Oil Pipelines .... 61
LNG Terminals 62
Table: LNG Terminals in India . 62
Gas Storage Facilities 63
Gas Pipelines ... 64
Macroeconomic Outlook ....... 66
Table: India - Economic Activity ........ 68
Competitive Landscape ........ 69
Executive Summary .... 69
Table: Key Players ' India Oil And Gas Sector ...... 70
Overview/State Role ... 70
Licensing And Regulation ......... 70
Government Policy ......... 72
Licensing Rounds .. 74
International Energy Relations . 76
Table: Key Upstream Players ... 77
Table: Key Downstream Players ........ 77
Company Monitor ........ 78
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) 78
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) ........ 84
Reliance Industries .... 87
Oil India Ltd (OIL) .... 93
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) . 96
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) ....... 99
GAIL (India) ...101
Cairn India .....104
BP ' Summary .....106
BG Group ' Summary ....107
Shell ' Summary ..107
Total ' Summary ..108
Oilex ' Summary..108
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) ' Summary .......110
Eni ' Summary .....111
Essar Oil ' Summary .....112
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Hardy Oil & Gas ' Summary ...113
Others ' Summary .........113
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ... 114
Regional Oil Demand .........114
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) ......114
Regional Oil Supply ..115
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) .........115
Regional Refining Capacity .....116
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) .........116
Regional Gas Demand ...117
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) .........117
Regional Gas Supply ......118
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) ..118
India Country Overview ......118
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts .....119
Glossary Of Terms .... 120
Business Environment Ratings Methodology. 121
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .........121
Ratings Overview ......121
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Structure ....122
Indicators ........122
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings ' Methodology .122
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings ' Methodology .......124
BMI Forecast Modelling ....... 126
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......126
Energy Industry ........127
Cross Checks ..127
Sources .127
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