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Material risk
Access to technology minerals
September 2010
In June 2010, the European Commission (EC) published a report1
which identified 14 raw mineral materials as critical to European
industry. In this paper we explore the supply risks facing producers
and consumers of these technology minerals, and assess the
European mining and metals sector’s ability to respond to the
supply chain challenge.

                        Michel Nestour
                        Director Mining & Metals
                        London
                        T: +44 (0)20 7951 4936
                        E: mnestour@uk.ey.com




               5
                                                                                         Rare Earths


              4.5



               4


                                                                                                                   PGM
              3.5



               3
Supply risk




                                                                                                        Germanium                                                            Niobium
                                                                               Antimony
                                                                                                          Magnesium
              2.5                                                                                              Gallium


               2                                                                                                   Indium
                                                                                                                                                                      Tungsten
                               Barytes
                                                                                                                                       Fluorspar
              1.5
                                                                                                           Beryllium                                                  Graphite
                                                                                                                             Cobalt
                                                                                                                                      Tantalum
               1
                                                                               Lithium                                                                                       Magnesite          Chromium
                                                                                                                                            Rhenium
                                                                                                   Limestone                                                                                    Vanadium
                                                                  Borates                                                                          Tellurium               Molybdenum
              0.5           Diatomite                                         Bentonite                                                                                                  Zinc
                                         Perlite     Gypsum                                                                                                                                        Manganese
                                                   Clays             Silver                                                                            Iron
                                Talc                                                      Silica                                                               Aluminium          Bauxite Nickel
                                                              Feldspar           Copper
               0
                                                                            Titanium
                    3              4                          5                             6                            7                         8                        9                       10


                                                                                                   Economic importance
Source: Critical raw materials for the EU: report of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials, European Commission, June 2010.




1
    Critical raw materials for the EU: report of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials, European Commission, June 2010.



                                                                     Material risk Access to technology minerals
Material risk
Access to technology minerals




Critical raw materials for the European Union (EU)
The world’s population growth and rapid industrialization have           EC experts have identified a selection of 14 raw materials as
led to a swift increase in demand for metal intensive technology         critical, out of 41 minerals and metals analyzed. These materials
such as LCD screens, hybrid cars and wind turbine magnets. The           are referred to in this paper as “technology minerals”.
emergence of China as a metal superpower and its insatiable thirst
                                                                         The EC study, Critical raw materials for the EU, used a methodology
for minerals to support its economic development, coupled with
                                                                         based on criticality, designed to account for the supply risk and the
worldwide increased dependence on these technologies, prompted
                                                                         economic importance of each mineral and metal considered.
the EC to design an integrated strategy for raw materials in
November 2008. The goal is to ensure that future EU technology           The minerals considered as critical are circled in yellow in the
industries can adequately prepare themselves to face increasing          diagram opposite.
global competition for key mineral inputs.




The response from the rest of the world
Globally, other law makers, federal agencies and companies are           heavily backed by the government, has taken it to Vietnam and
beginning to see increasing supply risks dependence and are              Kazakhstan. US policy makers are pursuing a rare earths plan with
now looking at what needs to be done to secure resources. In             the Rare Earths Supply Technology and Resources Transformation
the case of rare earths, Korean companies aim to obtain rare-            (RESTART) Act, which aims to establish a working group to assess
earth resources from China by equity participation in Chinese            and monitor strategic need for rare earths, create a national
companies, while Japan has begun an unprecedented number of              stockpile, facilitate financing for domestic production and support
exploration projects and acquisitions outside China in an effort         innovation and workforce development to support the industry.
to secure supply. Japan’s search for rare earth investments,




                                              Material risk Access to technology minerals                                                    1
Why worry now about technology minerals?




                                                                             Exploitation of the identified technology minerals is dependent
    The availability of technological minerals appears to be                 on the sector’s ability to: identify and commercially extract the
    increasingly under pressure.                                             minerals from either an accessible and large enough mineral
    This is due to:                                                          deposit, or from smaller mineral deposits of high grade minerals;
    ► New demand from emerging markets                                       or to commercially recycle the mineral harvested from existing
                                                                             metal fabrication. In the case of rare earths, an additional
    ► The impact of the recent economic crisis on the
                                                                             complexity arises from the fact that the mineral composition
      availability of funding, and, in turn, on exploration and
                                                                             of rare earths deposits usually includes all of the 17 rare earth
      production spend
                                                                             elements1 in varying proportions. The demand pattern is different
    ► Continued advances in technology application                           for each of the 17 elements according to their various applications.
    ► Investors’ limited knowledge and understanding of the
                                                                             A number of challenges arise for EU (listed or headquartered)
      technology minerals
                                                                             companies in making the decision to explore or extract such
    However, the main perceived threat is a change in geopolitical-          technology minerals. These include:
    economic frameworks, which could disrupt supply and demand
                                                                             ► The availability of an accessible mineral deposit capable of
    patterns and ultimately lead to protectionism.
                                                                               economic extraction
    We believe that, assuming demand continues to rise, this
                                                                             ► Legislative regimes, mining regulations, political systems and
    scenario is unlikely to occur over the long term as market
                                                                               social and environmental risks
    solutions will prevail — for example, price increases will
    lead to new exploration, long term supply agreements and                 ► Availability of funding to develop the mines
    joint ventures.
                                                                             ► Level of customer demand for the ores
    Nevertheless, if the EU mining and metals industry is to remain
                                                                             In the following pages we address the above mentioned challenges
    competitive in the future supply of these critical technological
                                                                             in the context of technology minerals by looking specifically at:
    minerals, and if customers are to limit their supply chain risks,
    now is the time to take notice. A strategy needs to be developed         ► How many EU companies are involved in the exploration/
    for technology minerals supply, potentially with the support of a          extraction of technology minerals?
    broader incentivized investment framework.
                                                                             ► How geographically concentrated are the global reserves of
                                                                               technology minerals?
                                                                             ► Where these technology minerals are located
                                                                             ► The stability of the mining environment in which these
                                                                               technology mineral reserves are located
                                                                             ► The sources of funding available to develop
                                                                               technology minerals
                                                                             ► The potential market size and demand for these technology
                                                                               minerals and the influence of mineral substitutions or price




    1
        Rare earth elements include: yttrium, scandium,
        lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium,
        promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium,
        terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium,
        ytterbium and lutetium.



2                                                 Material risk Access to technology minerals
Exploration or extraction of technology minerals
by EU companies



We have identified 36 companies listed or headquartered in the EU                                                         About half of those identified EU companies are UK listed or
involved in the exploration or extraction of technology minerals,                                                         headquartered. However, the majority of their ore deposits are
based on information in the public domain. The primary focus of                                                           located outside the EU. Certain companies are in fact subsidiaries
these companies is on platinum group metals (PGMs), magnesium,                                                            of larger groups such as CAMEC (now part of ENRC) or Glebe
fluorspar and tungsten. Often the same company will have several                                                          Mining Limited (part of Ineos Group).
projects covering several technology minerals. Conversely, there
are currently no EU listed or headquartered companies which are
involved in extraction or exploration of beryllium.


                                   10

                                   9

                                   8
    Number of European companies




                                   7

                                   6

                                   5

                                   4

                                   3

                                   2

                                   1

                                   0
                                             Fluorspar   Magnesium     Graphite   Antimony   Rare Earths   Cobalt   Niobium   Tungsten   Tantalum   Indium1   PGMs   Beryllium   Germanium1   Gallium1
                                                         compounds 2

                                        Source: Global OneSource, London Stock Exchange, Raw Materials Group and EY research. It excludes diversified miners such as BHP Billiton,
                                        Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Xstrata.
                                        1
                                            Includes refiners as by-product.
                                        2
                                            Based on magnesite.




                                                                                             Material risk Access to technology minerals                                                                 3
How geographically concentrated are the global
reserves of technology minerals?



Our findings suggest that, for the majority of the technology                                                    view, a high level of geographical reserve concentration poses an
minerals, the three largest reserves account for over 60% of total                                               additional risk to the supply chain for such technology minerals. It
global reserves1, by volume. This means that, with the exception                                                 increases the economic influence of a sector in a local economy. It
of gallium, indium and fluorspar, over 60% of each mineral’s total                                               also increases the risk that such economies may decide to process
reserves are concentrated in three or fewer geographic regions.                                                  the minerals locally to create higher value-add products instead of
This concentration level is higher than we see for bauxite and                                                   simply exporting the minerals overseas for further processing.
iron ore, indicated in the chart for comparative purposes. In our


                      Mineral global reserve concentration %


                      100%

                       80%
    Concentration %




                       60%

                       40%

                       20%

                       0%
                             Germanium   PGMs    Niobium   Tantalum   Graphite      Cobalt   Tungsten Antimony    Rare     Magnesium Beryllium   Bauxite   Gallium   Indium   Iron ore   Fluorspar
                                                                                                                  Earths   compounds

                             Source: Mineral commodity summaries, USGS, January 2010; Mikolajczak, Clair , “Availability of indium and gallium”, September 2009,
                             via www.indium.com.




1
    The level of global reserve concentration ratio is estimated as the proportion of the
    top three largest identified estimated mineral reserves by volume divided by total
    estimated reserves (as compiled by the US Geological Survey (USGS) as at 2009
    from a variety of sources such as mineral commodity national reserves information,
    and in their absence, other sources such as academic articles, company reports,
    trade journals and articles), except for niobium, germanium, tantalum and indium,
    where only the top one or two countries publicly report data. For beryllium, we
    have used the world resources approximation from the USGS as reserves are not
    sufficiently well delineated to report consistent figures by geography. For gallium,
    we have used as a concentration proxy, the bauxite concentration, as gallium is
    primarily a by-product of bauxite and there is no gallium reserve publicly disclosed.



4                                                                                Material risk Access to technology minerals
Where are these concentrated mineral
reserves located?



Sixty percent of the technology mineral reserves are concentrated                    the two largest reserves in volume, the concentration percentage
in three geographic areas: Russia, North Korea (predominantly                        increases to 68% and China accounts for more than 50% of the
magnesium) and China. Discounting magnesium and fluorspar,                           global reserves.


                      Geographic concentration of                                        Geographic concentration of 12 critical global resources
                      14 critical global resources                                                (excluding magnesium and fluorspar)




                                              Russia
                                               24%
                     Others                                                                              Others
                      40%                                                                                 32%
                                                                                                                                     China
                                                                                                                                      51%

                                                 China
                                                  19%
                                                                                                           US
                                                                                                           7%
                                North Korea                                                                       CIS
                                   17%                                                                            10%



Source: Mineral commodity summaries, USGS, January 2010; Mikolajczak, Clair, “Availability of indium and gallium”, September 2009, via www.indium.com.




                                                         Material risk Access to technology minerals                                                     5
How stable is the mining environment in which
these technology mineral reserves are located?



We have cross-referenced the top three technology mineral
reserves’ geographic location (where available) with widely
available qualitative studies. The map opposite shows in visual
form our analysis of these countries in terms of perceived risks.
Our observations suggest that a significant proportion of these
minerals are located in countries considered by these studies to
represent a higher risk of instability.
Source: 2010 Ranking of countries for mining investment, Behre Dolbear
Group inc., via http://www.dolbear.com; IHS Global Insight Country Risk
Ratings Analysis (as at 22/9/2010) via http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com and                     USA
Transparency International Corruption Perception Index 2009, via http://www.
                                                                                            Rare earths
transparency.org; Reserves location sourced from Mineral commodity survey,
USGS, January 2010; Mikolajczak, Clair (Director of Metals and Chemicals)                    Tungsten
“Availability of Indium and Gallium”, September 2009 via www.indium.com.                       PGMs
1
    Gallium reserve location was not available publicly so bauxite location was used         Beryllium
                                                                                                                       Cuba
    as a proxy.                                                                             Germanium
                                                                                                                       Cobalt



                                                                                                    Mexico
                                                                                                   Fluorspar
                                                                                                   Graphite



                                Key:

                                            Negligible risk
                                                                                                             Brazil
                                                                                                            Niobium
                                            Low risk                                                        Tantalum

                                            Medium risk

                                            High risk

                                            Very high risk




6                                                             Material risk Access to technology minerals
Russia
                                                                                              Magnesium
                                                                                               Antimony
                                                                                               Tungsten
                                                                                                 Indium
                                                                                                  PGMs
                                                                                            Rare earths (CIS)

                                                                                         North Korea
                                                                                         Magnesium


                                                                                      China
                                                                                    Fluorspar
                                                                                   Magnesium
                                                                                    Graphite
                                                                                    Antimony
                                                                                   Rare earths
                                                                                    Tungsten
                                               India                                 Indium
Guinea
Gallium1                                      Graphite


     DRC                                                 Thailand
    Cobalt                                               Antimony


                                                                Vietnam
                                                                Gallium1


           South Africa
            Fluorspar
              PGMs
                                                                           Australia
                                                                            Cobalt
                                                                           Tantalum
                                                                           Gallium1




                          Material risk Access to technology minerals                                           7
What sources of funding are available to develop
technology minerals?



Our research on our universe of EU listed or headquartered
companies suggests that, since 2005, they have raised US$2.2b                    Equity issues by EU technology minerals companies
through the stock market. In 2009 and 2010 YTD, more than 50%                                                                            1,038
                                                                                                                                                        14
                                                                                            1100
of the capital raised was by a single company, Lonmin plc. The
                                                                                            1000                                                        12
companies that have raised these funds are primarily focused on                             900
the PGMs and cobalt.                                                                        800                                                         10




                                                                            Proceeds US$m
The majority of our sample has limited access to the debt market                            700
                                                                                                                                                        8
due to the early stage or perceived high risk profile of technology                         600




                                                                                                                                                            Number
                                                                                            500
mineral operations. This is compounded by the fact that the                                                                                             6
                                                                                            400                             367
demand for such minerals is a relatively new phenomenon, arising                                          299
                                                                                            300                                                  274
from increasing technology applications and the desire to bring                             200
                                                                                                                      223                               4

these to global mass markets. A case in point is the ubiquitous                             100
                                                                                                                                                        2
iPhone, which did not exist until June 2007.
Other alternative sources of funding may include joint ventures.                                                                                        0
                                                                                                   2005   2006       2007   2008         2009    2010
The rationale for entering a joint venture varies from transaction
to transaction and may include:                                                                                  Proceeds    Number of issuers



► Spreading the risk                                                      Source: Thomson Reuters, Ernst & Young research

► Matching of capital to assets
                                                                          ► State-backed Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp
► Securing supply in the face of a possible minerals                        (JOGMEC) has agreed to explore and develop mineral
  supply-demand imbalance                                                   resources, with a particular focus on rare earths and rare
                                                                            metals, in Namibia (July 2010). JOGMEC’s role will be to
► Securing price in exchange for off-take agreement and
                                                                            provide advanced technology for the analysis of geological
  provision of funding from customers
                                                                            data and to help Japanese companies join exploration projects.
Recently announced joint ventures in technology minerals include:           JOGMEC aims to stockpile two months’ worth of the special
► Graphit Kropfmuhl, a subsidiary of Dutch group AMG                        metals required in electronics, steel, and car manufacturing to
  Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V., entered into a joint venture           guard against price and supply volatility.
  with Extrativa Grafite do Brasil and REP Minerals to secure             ► In August 2010 JOGMEC also announced a partnership with
  graphite (announced in February 2010).                                    Midland Exploration Inc., (a Canadian exploration company) on
► Planet Resource Recovery Inc., a developer, manufacturer                  the Ytterby rare earths project.
  and marketer of “green” technologies for the remediation and            ► Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG) signed an agreement
  recovery of the planet’s resources, entered a joint venture with          to buy antimony mining rights in Turkey to secure future raw
  Franklin Mining inc., to develop and operate the San Antonia de           material supply in September 2010.
  Turiri Antimony mine in Bolivia (announced in April 2010).
                                                                          Outside of the technology minerals, Bolloré, a developer of lithium-
► Toshiba Corp has signed a definitive agreement with                     metal-polymer batteries, and Eramet, a mining group, signed an
  Kazakhstan’s state-operated nuclear firm Kazatomprom to                 exploration contract in February 2010 with a call option for lithium
  form a joint venture in September 2010 to focus on the global           deposits with Argentinean company Minera Santa Rita. Similarly,
  distribution of niobium-based products to the superconductor            in June 2010, JOGMEC agreed to invest US$4m in the Borate
  industry, tantalum and rare earths such as dysprosium.                  Hills Project to be a joint venture partner with American Lithium
                                                                          Minerals, Inc. (a US based mineral exploration company).
                                                                          Most of these examples represent early indications of mining
                                                                          companies and industrial groups jointly collaborating to find
                                                                          solutions to the supply chain challenge.



8                                              Material risk Access to technology minerals
What is the potential market size and demand for
technology minerals and are these influenced by
mineral substitutions or price?


With the exception of fluorspar, magnesium compounds and                     In addition, one of the factors driving the potential demand for
graphite, the global production of technology minerals is well               technology minerals will be the degree of possible substitution
below a million tons each per annum, and significantly below the             and future technology applications. Possible substitutions
production levels of iron ore (2.3b tons) and bauxite (201m tons),           concerning technology minerals can be summarized into three
illustrated for comparative purposes in Appendix 1. This highlights          broad categories (see table below).
both the limited availability and rate of production or recycling of
                                                                             The degrees of substitution appear to be limited. However, this
these minerals.
                                                                             is a dynamic process which is subject to constant change due
One reason for such limited production rates to date is that these           to evolving technology research and development, discovery
minerals currently represent relatively small markets (with the              and application.
exception of magnesium compounds, PGMs, cobalt and niobium
                                                                             Should there not be an appropriate substitute for a particular
which have an indicative annual global market size of over US$2b).
                                                                             technology mineral, or where production of technology minerals
This has historically reduced the incentive of the mining sector to
                                                                             could not be increased, then the price of that mineral will increase
invest in these markets.
                                                                             accordingly, assuming demand increases. This could impact
In its report, the EC presented an analysis of future demand                 the end consumer by contributing to either the scarcity of the
based on technology change. From this analysis, it identified                product itself or increasing its overall price. However, technology
gallium, indium and germanium as the three minerals that should              minerals comprise only a small proportion of the end product and
experience the largest demand growth. The table in Appendix 2, as            contribute only a modest amount to the total price paid by the
presented in the EC report, shows that demand for these products             consumer (e.g., it is estimated that the cost of indium in a 42”
will more than double by 2030.                                               TV is less than 1% of the TV price). It is important therefore that
                                                                             the industry producing the end product ensures that it maintains
The supply and demand for gallium, indium and germanium
                                                                             a fluid supply-chain through involvement in upstream mineral
minerals, which are by-products of bauxite, zinc, lead and copper
                                                                             procurement (i.e., exploration or extraction) through joint venture
production, is not only dependent on emerging technology
                                                                             or long term supply agreements.
demand, but also (and more significantly) on the supply and
demand for bauxite, zinc, lead and copper. Each of these in turn
responds to its own supply and demand cycle in line with expected
future economic growth and future metal price trends.




 Technology minerals                             Main industrial use                                Substitution
 Antimony                                        Flame retardant                                    No effective substitute for its major application
 Beryllium, germanium, niobium, rare earths,     Electronic, steel, construction, automotive, IT,   Difficult to substitute or where there are
 tantalum and tungsten                           telecommunication and mining                       possibilities there may be a loss of performance
                                                                                                    or higher costs
 Cobalt, fluorspar, gallium, graphite, indium,   Alloys, battery, chemicals, construction, steel,   Limited substitute or only for certain application
 magnesium and PGMs                              semi-conductors, telecommunication, renewable
                                                 technology, electronic and automotive
Source: Ernst & Young research




                                                  Material risk Access to technology minerals                                                            9
Is the EU mining and metals sector ready to
answer the technology minerals supply chain
issue highlighted by the EC?


The number of EU companies involved in technology minerals
exploration or extraction is small and in our view currently
insufficient to respond to the technology minerals supply chain
issue. The main reasons for this timid response are:
► The mineral ore deposits tend to be small when compared
  with iron ore or bauxite. The minerals are themselves often
  extracted as by-products of other more plentiful minerals,
  which affects their extraction rate. For example, the primary
  extraction of gallium does not depend solely on the demand
  for, and price of, gallium. The additional revenues from
  gallium’s production are small compared with the overall
  income generated by bauxite extraction and this can adversely
  affect a miner’s readiness to expand its gallium extraction. In
  addition, it often takes between seven to ten years before a
  new discovery can start to produce minerals.
► The mineral deposits tend to be located in regions where
  mining laws and political regimes are complex or challenging.
► The availability of debt to finance mine development was
  significantly impacted by the global financial crisis and risk
  aversion, and economic uncertainty will continue to impact
  investors’ appetite for investment in exploration1. However,
  mineral technology companies have been able to raise funding
  through the equity market since 2005 with a particular focus
  on cobalt and PGMs. Alternative sources of funding are still
  available and many early stage projects in other mineral
  groups have successfully attracted investment from strategic
  partners acquiring minority equity stakes.
► Investors have limited experience and knowledge of the
  technology minerals fundamentals to date as this is a complex
  new area.
► The demand for technology minerals is increasing but these
  markets still remain small in comparison to those of other
  minerals such as bauxite or iron ore. As a result, they are yet to
  attract the full attention of the mining community.
Failure to address the above challenges promptly could cause
the EU technology industry to dwindle over time. We are already
experiencing a marked decrease in the amount of these minerals
exported from emerging economies, as a result of increasing
internal demand from their technology industry, with the
announced decreasing export quota from China rare earths
industry on 7 July 20102.
Other regions of the world are beginning to take both public and           1
                                                                             See previous Ernst & Young papers, The wall of debt (October 2009) and Life after
                                                                             debt (May 2009). www.ey.com/miningandmetals
private sector action to address this risk – Europe cannot afford to       2
                                                                             “China reduces rare earths export quota by 72%” from China Daily via
be left behind.                                                              www.english.mofcom.gov.cn



10                                              Material risk Access to technology minerals
How can the EU mining and metals sector
better position itself to fulfil the demand for
technology minerals?


Successfully fulfilling the demand for technology minerals must            Ernst & Young’s experience with mining and metals companies
be dependent on whether the EU consumers of these technology               around the world suggests that EU companies that wish to develop
minerals have the requisite appetite for active participation in           in this sector will require support and innovative thinking, given
the technology mineral supply-chain. In the current environment,           the challenges highlighted.
it is doubtful that the response could solely come from the EU
                                                                           There are steps that can be taken to address these challenges:
exploration/extraction sector.
                                                                           ► Development of growth strategies (e.g., greenfield projects or
Early indications concerning other minerals (e.g., lithium) suggest
                                                                             company acquisitions) to compete with foreign state owned
that joint responses between mining companies and industry
                                                                             enterprises in geographies where local knowledge is key.
consumers to find creative and individualized solutions are possible,
such as the proposed lithium joint venture between Eramet, Bolloré         ► Lobbying of government and tax authorities to ensure that the
and Minera Santa Rita. This will take industrial companies into the          authorities understand the risks associated with inaction in the
unfamiliar territory of M&A or joint venture with junior miners.             technology minerals sector.
Unfamiliarity should not prevent the necessary actions.
                                                                           ► Development of new relationships and cultural understanding
Interestingly, opportunities are emerging with one of the major              between miners and technology companies to facilitate future
technology mineral rich countries, China, which has allowed                  joint supply strategies.
foreign companies to enter processing joint ventures with Chinese
rare earths businesses for example. China has also recently
                                                                            For further information on how Ernst & Young can help
stepped up its efforts on research and development of high-end
                                                                            with your material risk, please contact Michel Nestour
technology for the rare earths downstream industry by setting up
a special research fund of between 300m Yuan and 450m Yuan                  on +44 (0)20 7951 4936, mnestour@uk.ey.com or your
(US$44.1m and US$66.1m). Such cross-border joint ventures can               local Ernst & Young contact.
be complex but strategically rewarding.
The EC needs to decide what the next steps will be to ensure that
the EU mining and metals industry takes a greater interest in
technology minerals and remains competitive in this area. This
could take various forms including:
► Tax policy changes including tax breaks (such as flow-through
  financing) for EU based exploration and extraction activities in
  the specified metals.
► Setting up a state-owned enterprise, to take responsibility for
  exploration or provide centralized funding support for private
  exploration or extraction companies.
► State-owned geological surveys for early exploration.
► Creation of national stockpiles.
► Promotion of technology minerials recycling in the EU.
► Creating more innovative supply chains for key metals that
  incentivise the secure supply of key scarce materials. Such
  supply chain features will often attach suitable premiums
  on the necessary materials that will enable the creation of
  capital or the acceptance of greater sourcing and production
  risk. Such premiums may provide incentives for arbitrage
  opportunities from otherwise apparently closed markets.



                                                Material risk Access to technology minerals                                                 11
Appendix 1: Illustrative technology minerals
market size, use, production and reserves



                                                                                                                                                               Indicative
                                                                                                    Leader                 Reserves                            annual
                                                                 Mine Prod. 08       Mine Prod. 09E share of 09E           estimates           Indicative      market size
    Minerals       Source               Industrial use           (metric ton)        (metric ton)   production             (metric ton)        price ($/kg)    ($m)c
    Iron ore       Mined                Steel                    2,220,000,000 2,300,000,000 39% China                     77 billion tons              0.15        345,000

    Bauxite        Mined                Aluminium                  205,000,000          201,000,000 31% Australia          27 billion tons        0.028 (d)               5,628

    Magnesium      Mined                Casting alloys,                5,430,000           4,990,000 56% China             2.3 billion tons            2.85           14,221
    compounds                           packaging                   (excludes US)       (excludes US)


    PGMsa          Mined                Automotive and                        393                  373 58%                 71,000               Pt – 48,900               11,746
                                        electronics                                                    South Africa
                                                                                                                                                Pd -15,600

    Cobalt         Nickel or copper Alloys and                            75,900               62,000 40% DRC              6,600,000                    41.9              2,597
                   by-product       rechargeable
                   or mined         batteries


    Niobium        Mined                Steel or                           62,900              62,000 91% Brazil           2,946,000                     41d              2,542
                                        construction
    Antimony       Mined                Flame retardant                  197,000             187,000 90% China             2,100,000                     9.6              1,795

    Tungsten       Mined                Mining and                         55,900              58,000 81% China            2,800,000                      30               1,740
                                        construction

    Graphite       Mined                Steel                          1,120,000           1,130,000 70% China             71,000,000                   1.2d              1,400

    Rare earths    Mined                Automotive,                      124,000             124,000 96% China             99,000,000                   5.7b                710
                                        renewables
                                        technology
    Fluorspar      Mined                Chemical and steel            6,040,000            5,100,000 58% China             230 million                 0.11c                561
                                                                                                                           tons
    Indium         Zinc, lead,          Electronic                            570                 600 50% China            49,000                       575                 345
                   copper and tin
                   by-product
    Tantalum       Mined                IT and                              1,170               1,160 48% USA              110,000                      87.1                101
                                        telecommunication

    Germanium      Copper, lead or      Telecommunication                     140                  140 71% China           450f                         638                  89
                   zinc by-product      and solar


    Gallium        Bauxite and zinc Semi-conductor                             111                  78 Not available       Not available                600                  47
                   by-product       and renewables
                                    technology

    Beryllium      Mined                Electronic                            200                  140 85% USA             Not available               264d                  37


Source: Mineral commodity summaries, USGS, January 2010; MetalBulletin (23 August 2010); www.mineralprices.com (27 August 2010); and Mikolajczak, Clair (Director of
Metals and Chemicals) - “Availability of indium and gallium”, September 2009, via www.indium.com.
a
    Based on platinum and palladium only, production in kilograms. b Based on rare earths oxides year end 2009. c Based on year end 2009 price for metallurgical grade.
d
    Based on 2009 year end price. e estimated. f USA only; other countries not available.


12                                                           Material risk Access to technology minerals
Appendix 2: Global demand for
technology minerals



                                                                    Demand in 2006                 Estimated demand in
                                                 Production in 2006 from emerging                  2030 from emerging
    Minerals            Source                   (ton)              technology (ton)               technology (ton)              Indicator 20061        Indicator 20301
    Gallium             Bauxite and zinc                            152                       28                          603                   0.18                     3.97
                        by-product

    Indium              Zinc, lead, copper                          581                     234                         1,911                    0.4                     3.29
                        and tin by–product

    Germanium           Copper, lead or zinc                        100                       28                          220                   0.28                     2.20
                        by-product

    Neodynium           Mined                                   16,800                    4,000                        27,900                   0.23                     1.66
    (rare earth)

    PGM (Platinum)      Mined                                       255              Very small                           345                       0                    1.35
    PGM (Palladium)     Mined                                       267                       23                            77                  0.09                     0.29
    Tantalum            Mined                                    1,384                      551                         1,410                    0.4                     1.02


    Cobalt              Nickel or copper                        62,279                   12,820                       26,860                    0.21                     0.43
                        by-product or mined

    Ruthenium           Mined                                        29                        0                             1                      0                    0.03


    Niobium             Mined                                   44,531                      288                         1,410                   0.01                     0.03


    Antimony            Mined                                 172,223                         28                            71                <0.01                 <0.01


Source: Critical raw materials for the EU: report of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials”, European Commission, June 2010, and Annexe V to the
Report; Ernst & Young research
1
    The indicator measures the share of the demand resulting from driving emerging technologies in total today’s demand of each raw material in 2006 and 2030




                                                            Material risk Access to technology minerals                                                                    13
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Access critical minerals secure EU technology

  • 1. Material risk Access to technology minerals September 2010
  • 2. In June 2010, the European Commission (EC) published a report1 which identified 14 raw mineral materials as critical to European industry. In this paper we explore the supply risks facing producers and consumers of these technology minerals, and assess the European mining and metals sector’s ability to respond to the supply chain challenge. Michel Nestour Director Mining & Metals London T: +44 (0)20 7951 4936 E: mnestour@uk.ey.com 5 Rare Earths 4.5 4 PGM 3.5 3 Supply risk Germanium Niobium Antimony Magnesium 2.5 Gallium 2 Indium Tungsten Barytes Fluorspar 1.5 Beryllium Graphite Cobalt Tantalum 1 Lithium Magnesite Chromium Rhenium Limestone Vanadium Borates Tellurium Molybdenum 0.5 Diatomite Bentonite Zinc Perlite Gypsum Manganese Clays Silver Iron Talc Silica Aluminium Bauxite Nickel Feldspar Copper 0 Titanium 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Economic importance Source: Critical raw materials for the EU: report of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials, European Commission, June 2010. 1 Critical raw materials for the EU: report of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials, European Commission, June 2010. Material risk Access to technology minerals
  • 3. Material risk Access to technology minerals Critical raw materials for the European Union (EU) The world’s population growth and rapid industrialization have EC experts have identified a selection of 14 raw materials as led to a swift increase in demand for metal intensive technology critical, out of 41 minerals and metals analyzed. These materials such as LCD screens, hybrid cars and wind turbine magnets. The are referred to in this paper as “technology minerals”. emergence of China as a metal superpower and its insatiable thirst The EC study, Critical raw materials for the EU, used a methodology for minerals to support its economic development, coupled with based on criticality, designed to account for the supply risk and the worldwide increased dependence on these technologies, prompted economic importance of each mineral and metal considered. the EC to design an integrated strategy for raw materials in November 2008. The goal is to ensure that future EU technology The minerals considered as critical are circled in yellow in the industries can adequately prepare themselves to face increasing diagram opposite. global competition for key mineral inputs. The response from the rest of the world Globally, other law makers, federal agencies and companies are heavily backed by the government, has taken it to Vietnam and beginning to see increasing supply risks dependence and are Kazakhstan. US policy makers are pursuing a rare earths plan with now looking at what needs to be done to secure resources. In the Rare Earths Supply Technology and Resources Transformation the case of rare earths, Korean companies aim to obtain rare- (RESTART) Act, which aims to establish a working group to assess earth resources from China by equity participation in Chinese and monitor strategic need for rare earths, create a national companies, while Japan has begun an unprecedented number of stockpile, facilitate financing for domestic production and support exploration projects and acquisitions outside China in an effort innovation and workforce development to support the industry. to secure supply. Japan’s search for rare earth investments, Material risk Access to technology minerals 1
  • 4. Why worry now about technology minerals? Exploitation of the identified technology minerals is dependent The availability of technological minerals appears to be on the sector’s ability to: identify and commercially extract the increasingly under pressure. minerals from either an accessible and large enough mineral This is due to: deposit, or from smaller mineral deposits of high grade minerals; ► New demand from emerging markets or to commercially recycle the mineral harvested from existing metal fabrication. In the case of rare earths, an additional ► The impact of the recent economic crisis on the complexity arises from the fact that the mineral composition availability of funding, and, in turn, on exploration and of rare earths deposits usually includes all of the 17 rare earth production spend elements1 in varying proportions. The demand pattern is different ► Continued advances in technology application for each of the 17 elements according to their various applications. ► Investors’ limited knowledge and understanding of the A number of challenges arise for EU (listed or headquartered) technology minerals companies in making the decision to explore or extract such However, the main perceived threat is a change in geopolitical- technology minerals. These include: economic frameworks, which could disrupt supply and demand ► The availability of an accessible mineral deposit capable of patterns and ultimately lead to protectionism. economic extraction We believe that, assuming demand continues to rise, this ► Legislative regimes, mining regulations, political systems and scenario is unlikely to occur over the long term as market social and environmental risks solutions will prevail — for example, price increases will lead to new exploration, long term supply agreements and ► Availability of funding to develop the mines joint ventures. ► Level of customer demand for the ores Nevertheless, if the EU mining and metals industry is to remain In the following pages we address the above mentioned challenges competitive in the future supply of these critical technological in the context of technology minerals by looking specifically at: minerals, and if customers are to limit their supply chain risks, now is the time to take notice. A strategy needs to be developed ► How many EU companies are involved in the exploration/ for technology minerals supply, potentially with the support of a extraction of technology minerals? broader incentivized investment framework. ► How geographically concentrated are the global reserves of technology minerals? ► Where these technology minerals are located ► The stability of the mining environment in which these technology mineral reserves are located ► The sources of funding available to develop technology minerals ► The potential market size and demand for these technology minerals and the influence of mineral substitutions or price 1 Rare earth elements include: yttrium, scandium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium and lutetium. 2 Material risk Access to technology minerals
  • 5. Exploration or extraction of technology minerals by EU companies We have identified 36 companies listed or headquartered in the EU About half of those identified EU companies are UK listed or involved in the exploration or extraction of technology minerals, headquartered. However, the majority of their ore deposits are based on information in the public domain. The primary focus of located outside the EU. Certain companies are in fact subsidiaries these companies is on platinum group metals (PGMs), magnesium, of larger groups such as CAMEC (now part of ENRC) or Glebe fluorspar and tungsten. Often the same company will have several Mining Limited (part of Ineos Group). projects covering several technology minerals. Conversely, there are currently no EU listed or headquartered companies which are involved in extraction or exploration of beryllium. 10 9 8 Number of European companies 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Fluorspar Magnesium Graphite Antimony Rare Earths Cobalt Niobium Tungsten Tantalum Indium1 PGMs Beryllium Germanium1 Gallium1 compounds 2 Source: Global OneSource, London Stock Exchange, Raw Materials Group and EY research. It excludes diversified miners such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Xstrata. 1 Includes refiners as by-product. 2 Based on magnesite. Material risk Access to technology minerals 3
  • 6. How geographically concentrated are the global reserves of technology minerals? Our findings suggest that, for the majority of the technology view, a high level of geographical reserve concentration poses an minerals, the three largest reserves account for over 60% of total additional risk to the supply chain for such technology minerals. It global reserves1, by volume. This means that, with the exception increases the economic influence of a sector in a local economy. It of gallium, indium and fluorspar, over 60% of each mineral’s total also increases the risk that such economies may decide to process reserves are concentrated in three or fewer geographic regions. the minerals locally to create higher value-add products instead of This concentration level is higher than we see for bauxite and simply exporting the minerals overseas for further processing. iron ore, indicated in the chart for comparative purposes. In our Mineral global reserve concentration % 100% 80% Concentration % 60% 40% 20% 0% Germanium PGMs Niobium Tantalum Graphite Cobalt Tungsten Antimony Rare Magnesium Beryllium Bauxite Gallium Indium Iron ore Fluorspar Earths compounds Source: Mineral commodity summaries, USGS, January 2010; Mikolajczak, Clair , “Availability of indium and gallium”, September 2009, via www.indium.com. 1 The level of global reserve concentration ratio is estimated as the proportion of the top three largest identified estimated mineral reserves by volume divided by total estimated reserves (as compiled by the US Geological Survey (USGS) as at 2009 from a variety of sources such as mineral commodity national reserves information, and in their absence, other sources such as academic articles, company reports, trade journals and articles), except for niobium, germanium, tantalum and indium, where only the top one or two countries publicly report data. For beryllium, we have used the world resources approximation from the USGS as reserves are not sufficiently well delineated to report consistent figures by geography. For gallium, we have used as a concentration proxy, the bauxite concentration, as gallium is primarily a by-product of bauxite and there is no gallium reserve publicly disclosed. 4 Material risk Access to technology minerals
  • 7. Where are these concentrated mineral reserves located? Sixty percent of the technology mineral reserves are concentrated the two largest reserves in volume, the concentration percentage in three geographic areas: Russia, North Korea (predominantly increases to 68% and China accounts for more than 50% of the magnesium) and China. Discounting magnesium and fluorspar, global reserves. Geographic concentration of Geographic concentration of 12 critical global resources 14 critical global resources (excluding magnesium and fluorspar) Russia 24% Others Others 40% 32% China 51% China 19% US 7% North Korea CIS 17% 10% Source: Mineral commodity summaries, USGS, January 2010; Mikolajczak, Clair, “Availability of indium and gallium”, September 2009, via www.indium.com. Material risk Access to technology minerals 5
  • 8. How stable is the mining environment in which these technology mineral reserves are located? We have cross-referenced the top three technology mineral reserves’ geographic location (where available) with widely available qualitative studies. The map opposite shows in visual form our analysis of these countries in terms of perceived risks. Our observations suggest that a significant proportion of these minerals are located in countries considered by these studies to represent a higher risk of instability. Source: 2010 Ranking of countries for mining investment, Behre Dolbear Group inc., via http://www.dolbear.com; IHS Global Insight Country Risk Ratings Analysis (as at 22/9/2010) via http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com and USA Transparency International Corruption Perception Index 2009, via http://www. Rare earths transparency.org; Reserves location sourced from Mineral commodity survey, USGS, January 2010; Mikolajczak, Clair (Director of Metals and Chemicals) Tungsten “Availability of Indium and Gallium”, September 2009 via www.indium.com. PGMs 1 Gallium reserve location was not available publicly so bauxite location was used Beryllium Cuba as a proxy. Germanium Cobalt Mexico Fluorspar Graphite Key: Negligible risk Brazil Niobium Low risk Tantalum Medium risk High risk Very high risk 6 Material risk Access to technology minerals
  • 9. Russia Magnesium Antimony Tungsten Indium PGMs Rare earths (CIS) North Korea Magnesium China Fluorspar Magnesium Graphite Antimony Rare earths Tungsten India Indium Guinea Gallium1 Graphite DRC Thailand Cobalt Antimony Vietnam Gallium1 South Africa Fluorspar PGMs Australia Cobalt Tantalum Gallium1 Material risk Access to technology minerals 7
  • 10. What sources of funding are available to develop technology minerals? Our research on our universe of EU listed or headquartered companies suggests that, since 2005, they have raised US$2.2b Equity issues by EU technology minerals companies through the stock market. In 2009 and 2010 YTD, more than 50% 1,038 14 1100 of the capital raised was by a single company, Lonmin plc. The 1000 12 companies that have raised these funds are primarily focused on 900 the PGMs and cobalt. 800 10 Proceeds US$m The majority of our sample has limited access to the debt market 700 8 due to the early stage or perceived high risk profile of technology 600 Number 500 mineral operations. This is compounded by the fact that the 6 400 367 demand for such minerals is a relatively new phenomenon, arising 299 300 274 from increasing technology applications and the desire to bring 200 223 4 these to global mass markets. A case in point is the ubiquitous 100 2 iPhone, which did not exist until June 2007. Other alternative sources of funding may include joint ventures. 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 The rationale for entering a joint venture varies from transaction to transaction and may include: Proceeds Number of issuers ► Spreading the risk Source: Thomson Reuters, Ernst & Young research ► Matching of capital to assets ► State-backed Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp ► Securing supply in the face of a possible minerals (JOGMEC) has agreed to explore and develop mineral supply-demand imbalance resources, with a particular focus on rare earths and rare metals, in Namibia (July 2010). JOGMEC’s role will be to ► Securing price in exchange for off-take agreement and provide advanced technology for the analysis of geological provision of funding from customers data and to help Japanese companies join exploration projects. Recently announced joint ventures in technology minerals include: JOGMEC aims to stockpile two months’ worth of the special ► Graphit Kropfmuhl, a subsidiary of Dutch group AMG metals required in electronics, steel, and car manufacturing to Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V., entered into a joint venture guard against price and supply volatility. with Extrativa Grafite do Brasil and REP Minerals to secure ► In August 2010 JOGMEC also announced a partnership with graphite (announced in February 2010). Midland Exploration Inc., (a Canadian exploration company) on ► Planet Resource Recovery Inc., a developer, manufacturer the Ytterby rare earths project. and marketer of “green” technologies for the remediation and ► Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG) signed an agreement recovery of the planet’s resources, entered a joint venture with to buy antimony mining rights in Turkey to secure future raw Franklin Mining inc., to develop and operate the San Antonia de material supply in September 2010. Turiri Antimony mine in Bolivia (announced in April 2010). Outside of the technology minerals, Bolloré, a developer of lithium- ► Toshiba Corp has signed a definitive agreement with metal-polymer batteries, and Eramet, a mining group, signed an Kazakhstan’s state-operated nuclear firm Kazatomprom to exploration contract in February 2010 with a call option for lithium form a joint venture in September 2010 to focus on the global deposits with Argentinean company Minera Santa Rita. Similarly, distribution of niobium-based products to the superconductor in June 2010, JOGMEC agreed to invest US$4m in the Borate industry, tantalum and rare earths such as dysprosium. Hills Project to be a joint venture partner with American Lithium Minerals, Inc. (a US based mineral exploration company). Most of these examples represent early indications of mining companies and industrial groups jointly collaborating to find solutions to the supply chain challenge. 8 Material risk Access to technology minerals
  • 11. What is the potential market size and demand for technology minerals and are these influenced by mineral substitutions or price? With the exception of fluorspar, magnesium compounds and In addition, one of the factors driving the potential demand for graphite, the global production of technology minerals is well technology minerals will be the degree of possible substitution below a million tons each per annum, and significantly below the and future technology applications. Possible substitutions production levels of iron ore (2.3b tons) and bauxite (201m tons), concerning technology minerals can be summarized into three illustrated for comparative purposes in Appendix 1. This highlights broad categories (see table below). both the limited availability and rate of production or recycling of The degrees of substitution appear to be limited. However, this these minerals. is a dynamic process which is subject to constant change due One reason for such limited production rates to date is that these to evolving technology research and development, discovery minerals currently represent relatively small markets (with the and application. exception of magnesium compounds, PGMs, cobalt and niobium Should there not be an appropriate substitute for a particular which have an indicative annual global market size of over US$2b). technology mineral, or where production of technology minerals This has historically reduced the incentive of the mining sector to could not be increased, then the price of that mineral will increase invest in these markets. accordingly, assuming demand increases. This could impact In its report, the EC presented an analysis of future demand the end consumer by contributing to either the scarcity of the based on technology change. From this analysis, it identified product itself or increasing its overall price. However, technology gallium, indium and germanium as the three minerals that should minerals comprise only a small proportion of the end product and experience the largest demand growth. The table in Appendix 2, as contribute only a modest amount to the total price paid by the presented in the EC report, shows that demand for these products consumer (e.g., it is estimated that the cost of indium in a 42” will more than double by 2030. TV is less than 1% of the TV price). It is important therefore that the industry producing the end product ensures that it maintains The supply and demand for gallium, indium and germanium a fluid supply-chain through involvement in upstream mineral minerals, which are by-products of bauxite, zinc, lead and copper procurement (i.e., exploration or extraction) through joint venture production, is not only dependent on emerging technology or long term supply agreements. demand, but also (and more significantly) on the supply and demand for bauxite, zinc, lead and copper. Each of these in turn responds to its own supply and demand cycle in line with expected future economic growth and future metal price trends. Technology minerals Main industrial use Substitution Antimony Flame retardant No effective substitute for its major application Beryllium, germanium, niobium, rare earths, Electronic, steel, construction, automotive, IT, Difficult to substitute or where there are tantalum and tungsten telecommunication and mining possibilities there may be a loss of performance or higher costs Cobalt, fluorspar, gallium, graphite, indium, Alloys, battery, chemicals, construction, steel, Limited substitute or only for certain application magnesium and PGMs semi-conductors, telecommunication, renewable technology, electronic and automotive Source: Ernst & Young research Material risk Access to technology minerals 9
  • 12. Is the EU mining and metals sector ready to answer the technology minerals supply chain issue highlighted by the EC? The number of EU companies involved in technology minerals exploration or extraction is small and in our view currently insufficient to respond to the technology minerals supply chain issue. The main reasons for this timid response are: ► The mineral ore deposits tend to be small when compared with iron ore or bauxite. The minerals are themselves often extracted as by-products of other more plentiful minerals, which affects their extraction rate. For example, the primary extraction of gallium does not depend solely on the demand for, and price of, gallium. The additional revenues from gallium’s production are small compared with the overall income generated by bauxite extraction and this can adversely affect a miner’s readiness to expand its gallium extraction. In addition, it often takes between seven to ten years before a new discovery can start to produce minerals. ► The mineral deposits tend to be located in regions where mining laws and political regimes are complex or challenging. ► The availability of debt to finance mine development was significantly impacted by the global financial crisis and risk aversion, and economic uncertainty will continue to impact investors’ appetite for investment in exploration1. However, mineral technology companies have been able to raise funding through the equity market since 2005 with a particular focus on cobalt and PGMs. Alternative sources of funding are still available and many early stage projects in other mineral groups have successfully attracted investment from strategic partners acquiring minority equity stakes. ► Investors have limited experience and knowledge of the technology minerals fundamentals to date as this is a complex new area. ► The demand for technology minerals is increasing but these markets still remain small in comparison to those of other minerals such as bauxite or iron ore. As a result, they are yet to attract the full attention of the mining community. Failure to address the above challenges promptly could cause the EU technology industry to dwindle over time. We are already experiencing a marked decrease in the amount of these minerals exported from emerging economies, as a result of increasing internal demand from their technology industry, with the announced decreasing export quota from China rare earths industry on 7 July 20102. Other regions of the world are beginning to take both public and 1 See previous Ernst & Young papers, The wall of debt (October 2009) and Life after debt (May 2009). www.ey.com/miningandmetals private sector action to address this risk – Europe cannot afford to 2 “China reduces rare earths export quota by 72%” from China Daily via be left behind. www.english.mofcom.gov.cn 10 Material risk Access to technology minerals
  • 13. How can the EU mining and metals sector better position itself to fulfil the demand for technology minerals? Successfully fulfilling the demand for technology minerals must Ernst & Young’s experience with mining and metals companies be dependent on whether the EU consumers of these technology around the world suggests that EU companies that wish to develop minerals have the requisite appetite for active participation in in this sector will require support and innovative thinking, given the technology mineral supply-chain. In the current environment, the challenges highlighted. it is doubtful that the response could solely come from the EU There are steps that can be taken to address these challenges: exploration/extraction sector. ► Development of growth strategies (e.g., greenfield projects or Early indications concerning other minerals (e.g., lithium) suggest company acquisitions) to compete with foreign state owned that joint responses between mining companies and industry enterprises in geographies where local knowledge is key. consumers to find creative and individualized solutions are possible, such as the proposed lithium joint venture between Eramet, Bolloré ► Lobbying of government and tax authorities to ensure that the and Minera Santa Rita. This will take industrial companies into the authorities understand the risks associated with inaction in the unfamiliar territory of M&A or joint venture with junior miners. technology minerals sector. Unfamiliarity should not prevent the necessary actions. ► Development of new relationships and cultural understanding Interestingly, opportunities are emerging with one of the major between miners and technology companies to facilitate future technology mineral rich countries, China, which has allowed joint supply strategies. foreign companies to enter processing joint ventures with Chinese rare earths businesses for example. China has also recently For further information on how Ernst & Young can help stepped up its efforts on research and development of high-end with your material risk, please contact Michel Nestour technology for the rare earths downstream industry by setting up a special research fund of between 300m Yuan and 450m Yuan on +44 (0)20 7951 4936, mnestour@uk.ey.com or your (US$44.1m and US$66.1m). Such cross-border joint ventures can local Ernst & Young contact. be complex but strategically rewarding. The EC needs to decide what the next steps will be to ensure that the EU mining and metals industry takes a greater interest in technology minerals and remains competitive in this area. This could take various forms including: ► Tax policy changes including tax breaks (such as flow-through financing) for EU based exploration and extraction activities in the specified metals. ► Setting up a state-owned enterprise, to take responsibility for exploration or provide centralized funding support for private exploration or extraction companies. ► State-owned geological surveys for early exploration. ► Creation of national stockpiles. ► Promotion of technology minerials recycling in the EU. ► Creating more innovative supply chains for key metals that incentivise the secure supply of key scarce materials. Such supply chain features will often attach suitable premiums on the necessary materials that will enable the creation of capital or the acceptance of greater sourcing and production risk. Such premiums may provide incentives for arbitrage opportunities from otherwise apparently closed markets. Material risk Access to technology minerals 11
  • 14. Appendix 1: Illustrative technology minerals market size, use, production and reserves Indicative Leader Reserves annual Mine Prod. 08 Mine Prod. 09E share of 09E estimates Indicative market size Minerals Source Industrial use (metric ton) (metric ton) production (metric ton) price ($/kg) ($m)c Iron ore Mined Steel 2,220,000,000 2,300,000,000 39% China 77 billion tons 0.15 345,000 Bauxite Mined Aluminium 205,000,000 201,000,000 31% Australia 27 billion tons 0.028 (d) 5,628 Magnesium Mined Casting alloys, 5,430,000 4,990,000 56% China 2.3 billion tons 2.85 14,221 compounds packaging (excludes US) (excludes US) PGMsa Mined Automotive and 393 373 58% 71,000 Pt – 48,900 11,746 electronics South Africa Pd -15,600 Cobalt Nickel or copper Alloys and 75,900 62,000 40% DRC 6,600,000 41.9 2,597 by-product rechargeable or mined batteries Niobium Mined Steel or 62,900 62,000 91% Brazil 2,946,000 41d 2,542 construction Antimony Mined Flame retardant 197,000 187,000 90% China 2,100,000 9.6 1,795 Tungsten Mined Mining and 55,900 58,000 81% China 2,800,000 30 1,740 construction Graphite Mined Steel 1,120,000 1,130,000 70% China 71,000,000 1.2d 1,400 Rare earths Mined Automotive, 124,000 124,000 96% China 99,000,000 5.7b 710 renewables technology Fluorspar Mined Chemical and steel 6,040,000 5,100,000 58% China 230 million 0.11c 561 tons Indium Zinc, lead, Electronic 570 600 50% China 49,000 575 345 copper and tin by-product Tantalum Mined IT and 1,170 1,160 48% USA 110,000 87.1 101 telecommunication Germanium Copper, lead or Telecommunication 140 140 71% China 450f 638 89 zinc by-product and solar Gallium Bauxite and zinc Semi-conductor 111 78 Not available Not available 600 47 by-product and renewables technology Beryllium Mined Electronic 200 140 85% USA Not available 264d 37 Source: Mineral commodity summaries, USGS, January 2010; MetalBulletin (23 August 2010); www.mineralprices.com (27 August 2010); and Mikolajczak, Clair (Director of Metals and Chemicals) - “Availability of indium and gallium”, September 2009, via www.indium.com. a Based on platinum and palladium only, production in kilograms. b Based on rare earths oxides year end 2009. c Based on year end 2009 price for metallurgical grade. d Based on 2009 year end price. e estimated. f USA only; other countries not available. 12 Material risk Access to technology minerals
  • 15. Appendix 2: Global demand for technology minerals Demand in 2006 Estimated demand in Production in 2006 from emerging 2030 from emerging Minerals Source (ton) technology (ton) technology (ton) Indicator 20061 Indicator 20301 Gallium Bauxite and zinc 152 28 603 0.18 3.97 by-product Indium Zinc, lead, copper 581 234 1,911 0.4 3.29 and tin by–product Germanium Copper, lead or zinc 100 28 220 0.28 2.20 by-product Neodynium Mined 16,800 4,000 27,900 0.23 1.66 (rare earth) PGM (Platinum) Mined 255 Very small 345 0 1.35 PGM (Palladium) Mined 267 23 77 0.09 0.29 Tantalum Mined 1,384 551 1,410 0.4 1.02 Cobalt Nickel or copper 62,279 12,820 26,860 0.21 0.43 by-product or mined Ruthenium Mined 29 0 1 0 0.03 Niobium Mined 44,531 288 1,410 0.01 0.03 Antimony Mined 172,223 28 71 <0.01 <0.01 Source: Critical raw materials for the EU: report of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials”, European Commission, June 2010, and Annexe V to the Report; Ernst & Young research 1 The indicator measures the share of the demand resulting from driving emerging technologies in total today’s demand of each raw material in 2006 and 2030 Material risk Access to technology minerals 13
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