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In Search of Yield
Finding Equity Income in a Low-Yield World
                    iShares Market Perspectives   |   September 2012
iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES              [2]




                                  The combined effect of a synchronized global
Executive Summary
                                  deleveraging and deteriorating demographics suggests
                                  that much of the developed world is likely to be stuck in
                                  a slow growth mode well beyond 2012. Consequently,
                                  with demand for capital low and central banks
                                  determined to maintain real rates at or below zero,
                                  investors are likely to remain yield-starved for the
                                  foreseeable future.


                                  Among the many implications of a low-yield regime, one of the most significant is that
                                  investors will need to continue to look beyond fixed income instruments in their search for
                                  income. Fortunately, dividend yields on equities are relatively high, at least compared to
                                  the standards of the past two decades. More importantly, relative to fixed income
                                  alternatives, dividend yields are actually close to a record high.

                                  That said, after four years of struggling in a zero-rate world there are segments of the
                                  equity income market that appear stretched and should probably be avoided. In particu-
                                  lar, some of the more defensive sectors—notably US utilities—look expensive given
                                  investor preference for yield as well as safety. However, outside of these areas we
                                  continue to see good opportunities for income-hungry investors.

          Russ Koesterich,        In particular, we see reasonably valued markets with attractive yields—above 3%—in
          Managing Director,
          iShares Chief
                                  developed Asia, Northern Europe and select emerging markets. In addition, at the sector
          Investment Strategist   level we find energy stocks attractive as they not only offer a reasonable yield, but are
                                  also cheap and offer a natural hedge should inflation start to rise.

                                  Meanwhile, investors searching for income are reasonably worried whether a yield-oriented
                                  strategy is the right approach should the tax rate on dividends rise post-2012. On this,
                                  history offers little guide. Prior to 2003, dividends were generally taxed the same as
                                  ordinary income, so there are few historical precedents on what happens following a
                                  unilateral rise in the dividend tax rate. While obviously a risk, we don’t believe this
                                  possibility changes the basic argument for a dividend tilt. As of today, the most likely
                                  scenario remains a temporary postponement of the fiscal cliff, with the second most
                                  likely outcome being a complete failure from Washington and a broad tax increase. Under
                                  this latter scenario, the general economic drag will be so large as to render the dividend
                                  tax issue less relevant: instead of worrying about the tax rate on dividends, investors will
                                  need to contend with the prospect of another recession.
iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES             [3]




   Dividend Yields: Better Than the Alternative                                             As has been pointed out by many commentators, one silver lining is
                                                                                            that while income is increasingly scarce in fixed income instru-
   The absence of alternatives clears the mind marvelously.                                 ments, it is more readily available in equities. Dividend yields still
   —Henry Kissinger                                                                         remain low compared to the bear- market bottoms witnessed in the
                                                                                            1970s and 1980s, but by the standards of the past 20 years equity
   Most income-oriented investors in developed countries face a                             yields are, for the most part, at the upper end of their recent range.
   stark choice: take on more risk or accept lower income. This was
   not always the case. Up until five years ago, it was still possible to                   Even in the United States, where dividend yields remain relatively
   generate a reasonable yield with little or no risk. For example, since                   low, yields have crept above their 20-year average.The S&P 500
   1982 the average yield on 90-day Treasury bills has been 4.70%.1                         Index (S&P 500) is yielding approximately 2.1%, slightly better than
   In other words, investors could earn roughly 5% on what was                              the 20-year average of 1.95%.
   effectively a risk-free investment. Nor is this average simply an
   artifact of the early 1980s, when yields were well into double digits.                   Outside the United States, the picture looks more enticing. Starting
   As recently as the summer of 2007, it was still possible to earn                         with developed markets, the dividend yield on the MSCI World
   5.25% and get a good night’s sleep.2                                                     Index is 2.9%, roughly 1.5 standard deviations above the 20-year
                                                                                            average.4 Investors willing to invest in emerging markets may do
   Today, investors would need to accept a substantial amount                               better still. The yield on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at 3.2%
   of both interest rate and credit risk to achieve a yield even                            is also comfortably above its 20-year average.5
   approaching 5%. Yields on short-term Treasuries have been below
   1% since the fall of 2009, and even an investor willing to take the                      Yields of 2% or 3% don’t normally set investors’ hearts aflutter, but
   questionable step of lending to the United States for the next 30                        it is important to put these yields in the context of the current
   years would only receive a 2.50% coupon.3                                                environment. While many investors can still remember a 4% yield
                                                                                            in the United States, the last time that was available the world
   Unfortunately, this situation is unlikely to change in the near term.                    looked quite different. Although the S&P 500 yielded 4% in the fall
   In addition to the Federal Reserve Board’s (the Fed’s) guarantee of                      of 1990, equities had to compete with Treasury bills that were still
   “low for long,” the peculiar nature of the recovery—hampered by                          yielding more than 7% and corporate bonds yielding well above
   the ongoing global deleveraging—suggests that growth is unlikely                         10%.6
   to pick up substantially in 2013. This means that investors may be
   facing a low-yield environment for many years to come.                                   Today, equities compare much more favorably with their fixed
                                                                                            income competitors, and even more favorably with cash. Leaving
                                                                                            aside the rock-bottom yield available in developed market
  Figure 1: MSCI World and EM Dividend Yield                                                sovereign debt, equity yields still look attractive when compared
  (1995 to Present)                                                                         against a less manipulated benchmark—investment grade
                     5%                                                                     corporate bonds.
12m Dividend Yield




                     4%                                                                     Figure 2 compares the yield on the MSCI World Index with the yield
                                                                                            on the Moody’s Baa Bond Index. Currently, investors can replicate
                     3%


                                                                                            Figure 2: Equity vs. Bond Yields
                     2%
                                                                                            (1995 to Present)
                                                                                                                   0.7
                     1%
                                                                                                                   0.6
                          1/95   1/98          1/01         1/05         1/08        1/11
                                                                                            Yield MSCI World/YTM
                                                                                              Moody’s Baa Index




                                                                                                                   0.5
                                  MSCI World      MSCI EM
                                                                                                                   0.4

   Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Index yields are for illustrative purposes. Indexes                           0.3
   are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not
   guarantee future results.                                                                                       0.2

                                                                                                                   0.1
   1
    	Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.
                                                                                                                   0.0
   2
    	Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.
                                                                                                                         1/95   1/98        1/01    1/05        1/08           1/11
   3
    	Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.
   4
    	Standard deviation is a measure of how widely values are dispersed from
   	 the average value (the mean).                                                          Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Index yields are for illustrative purposes. Indexes
   5
    	Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.                                                             are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not
   6
    	Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.                                                             guarantee future results.
iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES           [4]




nearly 60% of the yield on the Baa Bond Index by investing in the          long-term average of 22%. Nor is this simply a US phenomenon:
MSCI World benchmark, close to the record witnessed last fall. By          companies in most developed countries continue to enjoy
way of comparison, the long-term average is around 30%. Even in            near-record profitability. The ROE for firms in the MSCI World
early 2011, investors could only replace roughly one-third of the          Index at 22% is also close to a record high. Even in emerging
income of the Baa Bond Index with a broad equity index. At least on        markets, profitability remains well above the average at roughly
a global basis, equity yields look competitive when compared to            20% (see Figure 3).
the income available in the bond market.
                                                                           Overpaying for Income?
While the United States looks less interesting than the rest of the
world from a yield perspective, even in the United States yields           While we see a good opportunity in dividend-paying equities,
appear more generous on a relative basis. Repeating the same               we’d be reluctant to pursue that opportunity at any price. As this
exercise using the S&P 500, we find the average ratio between              trade has been advocated for some time, many investors are
the yield on the S&P 500 and the yield-to-maturity (YTM) on the            reasonably concerned that this theme has become too crowded.
MOODY’S Baa Index is 29%. Today it is nearly 42%. While the                For some sectors, this is probably true.
absolute level of yields in the United States is close to its 20-year
average, even this relatively paltry level looks more interesting          To the extent that some parts of the dividend trade have gotten
when compared to the alternatives.7                                        crowded, this is not just a function of the search for yield, as
                                                                           many investors have been stretching for yield for a different,
Can Yields Hold?                                                           although somewhat related, reason: dividend stocks tend to have
                                                                           low betas, i.e., are less volatile than the broader market.
Dividend yield, like value, can be an incomplete metric. Yields
will mechanically rise when stock prices fall, much as they did            The turmoil of the last several years has left many investors with
in 2008. While this creates the temporary illusion of value, it            a diminished appetite for risk. To the extent investors have not
assumes that the dividend can be maintained. This proved untrue,           entirely fled the equity markets, there is a marked preference for
especially for financial stocks, during the 2008 crisis. Banks were        stocks that are perceived as “safe.” Utility companies, and other
forced to cut dividends to replenish their capital base.                   low-beta sectors, have been the prime beneficiaries of this trend.
                                                                           It is this part of the dividend space where we would be the most
Today, the environment may be bleak and the outlook little                 concerned.
better, but one bright spot is the corporate sector. Despite the
overall economic malaise, investors have a reason to feel more             Utilities are probably the best example of a dividend sector
secure in the sustainability of dividend streams. While equity             where investors are paying too high of a premium for yield. As a
markets have been struggling since the spring, today’s yield is            result, this is one part of the dividend space we would avoid.
not a function of a bear market, as it was in late 2008, but of
steadily improving corporate earnings.                                     US utilities are currently trading at nearly 15x earnings, com-
                                                                           pared to an average since 1995 of around 14.5x. The stocks are
As we’ve discussed previously (see “Stand or Fall: Record Profits.
How Much Longer?” April Market Perspectives), given all of the
troubles in the world investors continue to be pleasantly
surprised by the resilience of corporate profits. Granted, growth         Figure 3: Return on Equity
is being driven by a ruthless attention to costs—coupled with             (1995 to Present)
the tailwind of cheap money and anemic wage gains—rather                                          26%
                                                                        Return on Common Equity




than by stellar top-line growth. Nevertheless, for investors
primarily concerned about the consistency of their income                                         22%

stream, there is some comfort in the fact that companies have
remained profitable in the midst of the worst economic recovery                                   18%

in generations.
                                                                                                  14%

Companies in the United States continue to be among the
world’s most profitable. The return on equity (ROE) for compa-                                    10%
                                                                                                        1/95     1/98           1/01        1/05   1/08      1/11
nies in the S&P 500 averages 27%, significantly above the
                                                                                                               MSCI World ROE      MSCI EM ROE


	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.
7                                                                           Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES                         [5]




even more expensive when you compare their valuation to the                                      factor favoring utility stocks is the thirst for yield. In an environ-
broader market. Typically, utilities trade at a discount to the                                  ment in which the 10-year Treasury is barely paying 1.50%, the
broader market as this is a regulated, slow growing industry.                                    3.50% yield on US utilities looks enticing. 12 In short, in the quest
Since 1995, utilities have traded at an average discount of                                      for both yield and safety, utilities were a natural beneficiary.
roughly 25% to the S&P 500. However, today utilities are trading                                 However, given high relative valuations and mediocre profitabil-
at more than an 8% premium, the largest since late 2007. 8                                       ity, we believe there may be better alternatives for investors
                                                                                                 willing to cast a wider net.
One argument supporting that premium would be if the sector
had undergone a secular improvement in profitability. Given the                                  Where Do We Find Yield? Look Abroad
regulated nature of the utilities industry, this would be a difficult
trick. In fact, today the US utilities industry is actually marginally                           Rather than focus on a particular sector, our general preference is
less profitable than its long-term average. ROE for US large                                     to access high-dividend companies through broad, diversified
capitalization (large cap) utility companies is currently 10.5%,                                 country funds. This approach helps to mitigate the idiosyncratic
the lowest level since 2004, compared to an average of 13.25%.9                                  dangers associated with one sector or industry. For example, in the
                                                                                                 United States we’d favor a multi-sector fund with a smaller
When you adjust valuations for profitability, US utilities look even                             allocation to utility companies, such as the iShares High Dividend
more overvalued. Historically, you can explain roughly 25% of the                                Equity Fund (HDV).
variation in the US utilities sector’s relative value by adjusting for
the ROE. For every 1% increase in ROE, the multiple of the sector                                Interestingly, some of the best yield opportunities are actually
typically increases by 1.4%. Today, with ROE at around 10%, you                                  outside of the United States. This is at least partly a function of the
would expect the utilities sector to trade at around a 27%                                       fact that the United States generally trades at a premium to most
discount to the S&P 500, rather than an 8% premium. 10                                           other countries. Currently, the S&P 500 trades at approximately 2x
                                                                                                 book value. In contrast, a global benchmark—the MSCI ACWI
So why are investors paying a near 10% premium to invest in a                                    Index—trades at roughly 1.6x book. 13
sector whose profitability is close to an eight-year low? The
answer is that utilities have benefited from two big trends—
a flight to safety and a flight to yield. Utilities typically benefit
                                                                                                 Figure 5: Dividend Yield by Country
when risk aversion is high, as the sector has had the lowest beta,
only 0.5, of any of the 10 economic sectors.11 In other words, for                               Czech Republic
                                                                                                 Finland
                                                                                                 Spain
every percentage point the S&P 500 moves, utility stocks only                                    Norway
                                                                                                 Poland
move about half that amount, a desirable characteristic when                                     New Zealand
                                                                                                 Australia
investors are worried about downside protection. The second                                      Taiwan
                                                                                                 Italy
                                                                                                 Brazil
                                                                                                 Morocco
                                                                                                 France
                                                                                                 Singapore
                                                                                                 United Kingdom
                                                                                                 Sweden
Figure 4: US Utilities Relative Valuation                                                        Germany
                                                                                                 Colombia
(1995 to Present)                                                                                South Africa
                                                                                                 Russia
                                                                                                 Hungary
                                   1.2                                                           Malaysia
P/E US Utilities vs. P/E S&P 500




                                                                                                 China
                                   1.1                                                           Hong Kong
                                                                                                 Netherlands
                                   1.0                                                           Israel
                                                                                                 Peru
                                                                                                 Thailand
                                   0.9                                                           Indonesia
                                                                                                 Belgium
                                   0.8                                                           Canada
                                                                                                 Austria
                                                                                                 Egypt
                                   0.7                                                           Chile
                                                                                                 Switzerland
                                   0.6                                                           Philippines
                                                                                                 Japan
                                   0.5                                                           Turkey
                                                                                                 United States
                                                                                                 Denmark
                                   0.4                                                           Mexico
                                         1/95   1/98   1/01   1/05         1/08           1/11   India
                                                                                                 South Korea

                                                                                                                  0%     1%        2%         3%        4%         5%        6%        7%
  Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Utilities are represented by the S&P Utility Index.
  Past performance does not guarantee future results.                                            Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Country yields represented by MSCI country index
                                                                                                 yields. Index yields are for illustrative purposes. Indexes are unmanaged and one
                                                                                                 cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  8
   	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12 as represented by the S&P Utility Index.
  9
   	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.
  10
     	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.                                                                 	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.
                                                                                                 12
  11
    	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. The other sectors are consumer staples, consumer                 	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.
                                                                                                 13

  	 discretionary, energy, financials, healthcare, industrials, materials, technology,
  	 and telecommunications.
iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES          [6]




With valuations lower, depending on risk tolerance, investors can                                                      When we compare the list of high-yielding countries to our country
potentially increase their dividend yield through a focus on non-US                                                    rankings, there is a subset of countries that have the potential to
companies. Figure 5 illustrates just how low the US dividend yield                                                     offer both yield and the prospect for capital appreciation. The
is compared to the rest of the world. At 2.1%, the United States is                                                    accompanying chart illustrates the results. We would focus our
fifth from the bottom of our ranking, ahead of Denmark, Mexico,                                                        search on those countries in the upper-right corner of the figure
India and South Korea.                                                                                                 (see Figure 6). Again, these are the countries that are currently
                                                                                                                       offering both a high yield and are potentially undervalued.
At the other extreme, 15 countries offer a yield of 4% or greater,
including a number of developed markets. Even after eliminating                                                        Using this methodology, in the developed world the list of high
countries at the heart of the euro crisis like Spain and Italy, there                                                  yielding, liquid (not all of the countries listed are easily accessible)
are still a number of options in both Europe and Asia: Finland,                                                        and potentially undervalued countries includes Finland, Norway,
Norway, New Zealand, Australia and Singapore. In addition, several                                                     New Zealand, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Germany and
emerging markets offer yields well in excess of 4%. Excluding some                                                     Singapore. In the emerging market universe, we would focus the
of the more speculative Eastern European names, such as the                                                            search for high yielders on Taiwan, Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
Czech Republic, investors are still left with a number of Asian and                                                    For investors looking for both yield and value, we would
Latin American options, such as Taiwan and Brazil.                                                                     concentrate on this list.

Moving beyond yield, several of these countries also offer                                                             Other Opportunities For Yield
compelling value for longer-term investors. In particular, many of
the countries offering the highest yields are also potentially trading                                                 Allocating by country generally offers a broad, well-diversified way
below their fair value. In attempting to isolate the relative valuation                                                to access markets. Granted, some of the countries—particularly in
of a country, we rely on our proprietary country model. This                                                           emerging markets—can be fairly narrow in terms of their sector
approach compares the macro fundamentals for a particular                                                              and security concentration, but in general investors are investing in
country—growth prospects, profitability, risk, etc.—to current                                                         a fairly diversified collection of securities. This becomes more of a
valuations. If a country’s valuation appears too low relative to its                                                   challenge when employing more niche assets, like sector funds,
fundamentals, we would look to overweight that country. If, on the                                                     which by nature tend to be more concentrated and less
other hand, it appears that too much good news is discounted in                                                        well-diversified.
the price relative to our economic expectations, we would look to
underweight that asset. The assumption is that the former group                                                        That said, while we generally prefer to allocate our equity exposure
will outperform over the intermediate term while countries for                                                         by country or region, for yield-oriented investors willing to accept
which valuation has outstripped macro fundamentals will                                                                more idiosyncratic risk there are a few sectors to consider. The one
generally trail the broader market.                                                                                    sector we would emphasize is global energy. It is worth reiterating
                                                                                                                       the case for each asset.

                                                                                                                       The case for a modest alocation to global energy is based on
   Figure 6: Yield vs. Country Ranking                                                                                 valuation and natural inflation hedge. Energy stocks have trailed
                                                                                                                       year-to-date, and as a result valuations are now very compelling.
                                                                                                                       On a global basis, energy stocks are trading for less than 9x
                    7%
                                                                                    Czech Republic
                                                                                                                       earnings and roughly 1.3x book value, both low compared to other
                                                                                         Finland                       sectors and to the sector’s own history. 14 In addition, energy stocks
                    6%
                               Spain
                                                                                    Norway
                                                                                                                       historically have been particularly resilient to rising inflation. While
                                                                                                Poland
Dividend Yield




                                                      Australia                        New Zealand
                                                                                                                       our near-term outlook suggests a very small probability of any
                    5%
                                   Italy                                                       Taiwan
                                                                                                          Brazil
                                                                                                             Morocco
                                                                                                                       meaningful acceleration in inflation, a combination of
                                                   France
                                       United Kingdom
                                                               Singapore
                                                                   Sweden
                                                                                                                       unconventional monetary policy and excessive debt burdens
                    4%                                                              Colombia
                                                               Germany
                                                                         South Africa
                                                                                                     Russia            makes this a longer-term risk. If investors can hedge that exposure
                                    Hungary         Malaysia                                              China
                    3%
                         Belgium         Peru
                                                Canada
                                                                Netherlands          Hong Kong
                                                                                   Israel                              cheaply, and at the same time generate a yield in excess of most, if
                                   Thailand                   Austria        Indonesia
                 Philippines             Chile
                                                          Turkey          Egypt                                        not all, of the Treasury curve, we think this represents an
                                     Switzerland
                    2%                           United States
                                                                      Japan
                                                                                                                       interesting opportunity.
                                                                                             Denmark
                                           Mexico        India

                    1%                                                South Korea

                         Country Rank (shaded area represents potentially undervalued countries offering high yield)
                                                                                                                        	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12.
                                                                                                                       14



    Source: iShares Model Portfolio Solutions group 7/15/12.
iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES                [7]




Our relatively positive view on energy is balanced by a more                                            compared to ordinary income. Looking ahead to 2013, not only is
cautious outlook on preferred stocks and REITs, two niche plays                                         there a lack of clarity on the tax rate for dividend income, there is
that investors have been turning to for yield. On the former, while                                     a lack of clarity regarding the future rate for ordinary income as
we see some opportunities for longer-term investors, we remain                                          well as for capital gains. It is also unclear whether the dividend
neutral on the asset class given the accompanying volatility. A                                         tax rate will rise in isolation or along with a broader set of tax
broad index of preferred stock is currently yielding roughly 6%,15 in                                   hikes. Given the uncertainty surrounding the tax code, coupled
line with what is available in a typical high yield fund. However, the                                  with the fact that there is no historical precedent for a major
6% yield on preferreds comes with a fair amount of volatility, as                                       unilateral hike in the dividend tax rate—in the sense that
most preferred indices are heavily weighted toward financial                                            dividend taxes rise but other rates remain constant—it is
issues, currently the most volatile sector. As the volatility of the                                    difficult, if not impossible, to handicap the impact of tax changes
financial sector has risen, so has the volatility of preferred indices.                                 on the preference for dividend stocks.
Therefore, preferred stocks provide a yield similar to high yield, but
they do so with more volatility (in addition to being lower in the
capital structure). For that reason, we have not generally liked large                                     “Common sense suggests that a
allocations, as we believe a similar income can be obtained with
less volatility in other asset classes.                                                                    higher marginal rate on dividend
We also maintain a cautious stance on REITs. A broad REIT index is
                                                                                                           income compared to capital gains
currently yielding roughly 3%, in line with energy stocks. 16 However,
while energy looks cheap, REIT valuations appear closer to fair
                                                                                                           would hurt dividend-paying stocks,
value, if not expensive. Investors have bid up the group in a search                                       at least in a relative sense. But by
for yield, putting REIT valuations close to a four-year high. The S&P
500 large cap REIT index is trading for approximately 3x book value,                                       how much is difficult to quantify.”
representing a near 40% premium to the broader market and a
200% premium to other financial companies. On both a relative
and absolute basis, valuation appears at the extreme of its                                             Our suspicion is that should the dividend tax go up as part of a
historical range. REITs appear to offer little value at current levels.                                 broader series of tax hikes—the fiscal cliff—dividend stocks may
                                                                                                        hold up surprisingly well, despite the higher tax rate. That is
What if Taxes Rise?                                                                                     because a massive tax hike is likely to push the United States
                                                                                                        back toward a recession, which is currently not priced into
The current monetary regime and the overwhelming likelihood that                                        financial markets. Under this scenario, a higher tax on dividends
it remains in place for the foreseeable future dictate that investors                                   is likely to be a lesser problem compared with a potential collapse
are likely to continue to seek sources of equity income. However,                                       in aggregate demand and corporate earnings. In the event of
that focus may be somewhat impacted by potential changes to US                                          another recession, investors may still flock to dividend stocks,
tax policy. In the event that taxes on dividends—currently the rate                                     particularly the low beta variety, as a safe haven, regardless of the
is 15% for “qualified dividends”17 —rise, what should investors                                         tax rate. If, on the other hand, the dividend tax rises but marginal
expect? Unfortunately, on this score history is a poor guide due to                                     rates remain the same, there is no historical precedent with
the unprecedented nature of the current situation.                                                      which to estimate how dividend stocks might do on a relative
                                                                                                        basis. Common sense suggests that a higher marginal rate on
Prior to 2003, dividends were generally taxed as income at the                                          dividend income compared to capital gains would hurt dividend-
prevailing rate, minus some modest exemptions (see Figure 7).                                           paying stocks, at least in a relative sense. But by how much is
Since 2003, dividends have been taxed at a preferential rate                                            difficult to quantify.




15
  	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12 as represented by the S&P US Preferred Stock Index.
16
   	 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12 as represented by the S&P 500 REIT Index.
17
  	 A type of dividend that meets certain criteria that allows it to be taxed at a preferential rate.
iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES               [8]




Figure 7: Dividend Taxation					                                                    Conclusion
                                                                                    The search for yield is an understandable response to a prolonged
 Year          Top Tax Rate                      Year      Top Tax Rate             period of unusual monetary conditions. There is simply no modern
                                                                                    precedent for an environment in which short-term rates are held at
 1913          Exempt                            1962      $50 Exempt               zero for a prolonged period of time. In addition, the Fed’s dedication
 1914          Exempt                            1963      $50 Exempt               to its asset purchase programs, which have also pushed long-term
 1915          Exempt                            1964      $100 Exempt              rates to record lows, further complicates the situation.
 1916          Exempt                            1965      $100 Exempt
 1917          Exempt                            1966      $100 Exempt              Given our expectations that growth in the developed world remains
 1918          Exempt                            1967      $100 Exempt
                                                                                    below trend, we believe that the low-rate environment is likely to
 1919          Exempt                            1968      $100 Exempt
 1920          Exempt                            1969      $100 Exempt
                                                                                    last for the next several years. Financial theory would argue that
 1921          Exempt                            1970      $100 Exempt              investors should focus on total return, rather than exclusively on
 1922          Exempt                            1971      $100 Exempt              income. However, the reality is that many investors will
 1923          Exempt                            1972      $100 Exempt              understandably look for alternative sources of income to replace
 1924          Exempt                            1973      $100 Exempt              the more traditional sources—cash and bonds—that now provide
 1925          Exempt                            1974      $100 Exempt              little or no yield.
 1926          Exempt                            1975      $100 Exempt
 1927          Exempt                            1976      $100 Exempt
                                                                                    In this environment, we do believe that investors should consider
 1928          Exempt                            1977      $100 Exempt
 1929          Exempt                            1978      $100 Exempt
                                                                                    equities to supplement their income needs. However, the danger is
 1930          Exempt                            1979      $100 Exempt              in overpaying for an income stream. We see evidence of this in a
 1931          Exempt                            1980      $100 Exempt              number of places such as utilities and, to a lesser extent, REITs.
 1932          Exempt                            1981      $200 -$400 Exempt (1)    On the other hand, there are pockets of value that offer attractive
 1933          Exempt                            1982      $200 -$400 Exempt (1)    yields and the potential for capital appreciation. In particular, we
 1934          Exempt                            1983      (1)                      would advocate looking at equities in Northern Europe, developed
 1935          Exempt                            1984      (1)
                                                                                    Asia, select emerging markets (Brazil, Taiwan and South Africa), as
 1936          Fully Taxable                     1985      Fully Taxable (1)
                                                                                    well as energy stocks.
 1937          Fully Taxable                     1986      Fully Taxable (1)
 1938          Fully Taxable                     1987      Fully Taxable
 1939          Fully Taxable                     1988      Fully Taxable            While we favor a dividend tilt, both as a carry play and because
 1940          Exempt                            1989      Fully Taxable            dividend stocks generally tend to be less volatile than the broader
 1941          Exempt                            1990      Fully Taxable            market, we are cognizant this strategy may be hurt should tax
 1942          Exempt                            1991      Fully Taxable            rates rise in 2013. However, unless the dividend tax rate rises
 1943          Exempt                            1992      Fully Taxable            unilaterally, the risks may be overstated. While politicians are likely
 1944          Exempt                            1993      Fully Taxable
                                                                                    to wait until the last possible minute, odds still favor a last-minute
 1945          Exempt                            1994      Fully Taxable
                                                                                    reprieve of the scheduled tax hikes. If, on the other hand, politicians
 1946          Exempt                            1995      Fully Taxable
 1947          Exempt                            1996      Fully Taxable            stumble and all the Bush era tax cuts expire, the tax rate on
 1948          Exempt                            1997      Fully Taxable            dividends is likely to be a small part of the problem. Under this
 1949          Exempt                            1998      Fully Taxable            scenario, massive fiscal drag may push the United States and large
 1950          Exempt                            1999      Fully Taxable            parts of the global economy back into recession. Should this occur,
 1951          Exempt                            2000      Fully Taxable            a higher tax rate may be an acceptable price for the income and
 1952          Exempt                            2001      Fully Taxable            safety of a dividend tilt.
 1953          Exempt                            2002      Fully Taxable
 1954          $50 Exempt                        2003      15%
 1955          $50 Exempt                        2004      15%
 1956          $50 Exempt                        2005      15%
 1957          $50 Exempt                        2006      15%
 1958          $50 Exempt                        2007      15%
 1959          $50 Exempt                        2008      15%
 1960          $50 Exempt                        2009      15%
 1961          $50 Exempt                        2010      15%
                                                 2011      39.60%

Note (1): $750 to $1500 exepmt if reinvested in utilities
Source: Tax Foundation (they sourced Treasury Dept. and Commerce Clearing House).
Accessed on seekingalpha.com 7/19/12.
For more information visit www.iShares.com
               or call 1-800-474-2737




               Carefully consider the iShares Funds’ investment objectives, risk factors,                                 Notice to residents in Australia:
               and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can                                  Issued in Australia by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165
               be found in the Funds’ prospectuses, which may be obtained by calling                                      975, AFSL 230523 (“BIMAL”) to institutional investors only. iShares® exchange traded funds
               1-800-iShares (1-800-474-2737) or by visiting www.iShares.com. Read the                                    (“ETFs”) that are made available in Australia are issued by BIMAL, iShares, Inc. ARBN 125 632
               prospectus carefully before investing.                                                                     279 and iShares Trust ARBN 125 632 411. BlackRock Asset Management Australia Limited
               Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification may not                     (“BAMAL”) ABN 33 001 804 566, AFSL 225 398 is the local agent and intermediary for iShares
               protect against market risk.                                                                               ETFs that are issued by iShares, Inc. and iShares Trust. BIMAL and BAMAL are wholly-owned
                                                                                                                          subsidiaries of BlackRock, Inc. (collectively “BlackRock”). A Product Disclosure Statement
               In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, international investments may involve           (“PDS”) or prospectus for each iShares ETF that is offered in Australia is available at iShares.com.
               risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally        au. You should read the PDS or prospectus and consider whether an iShares ETF is appropriate
               accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging        for you before deciding to invest. iShares securities trade on ASX at market price (not, net asset
               markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and           value (“NAV”)). iShares securities may only be redeemed directly by persons called “Authorised
               lower trading volume. Narrowly focused investments and investments in single countries may                 Participants.”
               exhibit higher volatility. There is no guarantee that dividend funds will pay dividends.
                                                                                                                          The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and should not be
               Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual iShares Fund                  construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer
               performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transac-                        to buy any security. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective. The
               tion costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an                         information provided is not intended to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting
               index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For actual iShares Fund per-                    any strategy. The examples presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implica-
               formance, please visit www.iShares.com or request a prospectus by calling 1-800-iShares                    tions or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of
               (1-800-474-2737).                                                                                          a given strategy.
               The iShares Funds that are registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission under                 The information provided is not intended to be tax advice. Investors should be urged to consult their
               the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“Funds”) are distributed in the US by BlackRock                        tax professionals or financial advisors for more information regarding their specific tax situations.
               Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”). This material is solely for educa-
               tional purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer     This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not
               to buy any shares of any fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any          intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should
               jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities      not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any
               law of that jurisdiction.                                                                                  security in particular.
               In Latin America, for Institutional and Professional Investors Only (Not for public Distribution):         BlackRock does not provide tax advice. Please note that (i) any discussion of U.S. tax matters
                                                                                                                          contained in this communication cannot be used by you for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties;
               If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds   (ii) this communication was written to support the promotion or marketing of the matters
               have not been registered with the securities regulator of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru,           addressed herein; and (iii) you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from
               Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country, and thus might not be             an independent tax advisor.
               publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not
               confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. No information discussed herein can            ©2012 BlackRock. All rights reserved. iShares® and BlackRock® are registered trademarks
               be provided to the general public in Latin America.                                                        of BlackRock. All other trademarks, servicemarks or registered trademarks are the property of
                                                                                                                          their respective owners. iS-7750-0812 3918-05RB-8/12
iS-7750-0812




               In Hong Kong, this document is issued by BlackRock (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been
               reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Singapore, this is issued by
               BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N).                                                      Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value

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Finding Yield in Equities

  • 1. In Search of Yield Finding Equity Income in a Low-Yield World iShares Market Perspectives | September 2012
  • 2. iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES [2] The combined effect of a synchronized global Executive Summary deleveraging and deteriorating demographics suggests that much of the developed world is likely to be stuck in a slow growth mode well beyond 2012. Consequently, with demand for capital low and central banks determined to maintain real rates at or below zero, investors are likely to remain yield-starved for the foreseeable future. Among the many implications of a low-yield regime, one of the most significant is that investors will need to continue to look beyond fixed income instruments in their search for income. Fortunately, dividend yields on equities are relatively high, at least compared to the standards of the past two decades. More importantly, relative to fixed income alternatives, dividend yields are actually close to a record high. That said, after four years of struggling in a zero-rate world there are segments of the equity income market that appear stretched and should probably be avoided. In particu- lar, some of the more defensive sectors—notably US utilities—look expensive given investor preference for yield as well as safety. However, outside of these areas we continue to see good opportunities for income-hungry investors. Russ Koesterich, In particular, we see reasonably valued markets with attractive yields—above 3%—in Managing Director, iShares Chief developed Asia, Northern Europe and select emerging markets. In addition, at the sector Investment Strategist level we find energy stocks attractive as they not only offer a reasonable yield, but are also cheap and offer a natural hedge should inflation start to rise. Meanwhile, investors searching for income are reasonably worried whether a yield-oriented strategy is the right approach should the tax rate on dividends rise post-2012. On this, history offers little guide. Prior to 2003, dividends were generally taxed the same as ordinary income, so there are few historical precedents on what happens following a unilateral rise in the dividend tax rate. While obviously a risk, we don’t believe this possibility changes the basic argument for a dividend tilt. As of today, the most likely scenario remains a temporary postponement of the fiscal cliff, with the second most likely outcome being a complete failure from Washington and a broad tax increase. Under this latter scenario, the general economic drag will be so large as to render the dividend tax issue less relevant: instead of worrying about the tax rate on dividends, investors will need to contend with the prospect of another recession.
  • 3. iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES [3] Dividend Yields: Better Than the Alternative As has been pointed out by many commentators, one silver lining is that while income is increasingly scarce in fixed income instru- The absence of alternatives clears the mind marvelously. ments, it is more readily available in equities. Dividend yields still —Henry Kissinger remain low compared to the bear- market bottoms witnessed in the 1970s and 1980s, but by the standards of the past 20 years equity Most income-oriented investors in developed countries face a yields are, for the most part, at the upper end of their recent range. stark choice: take on more risk or accept lower income. This was not always the case. Up until five years ago, it was still possible to Even in the United States, where dividend yields remain relatively generate a reasonable yield with little or no risk. For example, since low, yields have crept above their 20-year average.The S&P 500 1982 the average yield on 90-day Treasury bills has been 4.70%.1 Index (S&P 500) is yielding approximately 2.1%, slightly better than In other words, investors could earn roughly 5% on what was the 20-year average of 1.95%. effectively a risk-free investment. Nor is this average simply an artifact of the early 1980s, when yields were well into double digits. Outside the United States, the picture looks more enticing. Starting As recently as the summer of 2007, it was still possible to earn with developed markets, the dividend yield on the MSCI World 5.25% and get a good night’s sleep.2 Index is 2.9%, roughly 1.5 standard deviations above the 20-year average.4 Investors willing to invest in emerging markets may do Today, investors would need to accept a substantial amount better still. The yield on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at 3.2% of both interest rate and credit risk to achieve a yield even is also comfortably above its 20-year average.5 approaching 5%. Yields on short-term Treasuries have been below 1% since the fall of 2009, and even an investor willing to take the Yields of 2% or 3% don’t normally set investors’ hearts aflutter, but questionable step of lending to the United States for the next 30 it is important to put these yields in the context of the current years would only receive a 2.50% coupon.3 environment. While many investors can still remember a 4% yield in the United States, the last time that was available the world Unfortunately, this situation is unlikely to change in the near term. looked quite different. Although the S&P 500 yielded 4% in the fall In addition to the Federal Reserve Board’s (the Fed’s) guarantee of of 1990, equities had to compete with Treasury bills that were still “low for long,” the peculiar nature of the recovery—hampered by yielding more than 7% and corporate bonds yielding well above the ongoing global deleveraging—suggests that growth is unlikely 10%.6 to pick up substantially in 2013. This means that investors may be facing a low-yield environment for many years to come. Today, equities compare much more favorably with their fixed income competitors, and even more favorably with cash. Leaving aside the rock-bottom yield available in developed market Figure 1: MSCI World and EM Dividend Yield sovereign debt, equity yields still look attractive when compared (1995 to Present) against a less manipulated benchmark—investment grade 5% corporate bonds. 12m Dividend Yield 4% Figure 2 compares the yield on the MSCI World Index with the yield on the Moody’s Baa Bond Index. Currently, investors can replicate 3% Figure 2: Equity vs. Bond Yields 2% (1995 to Present) 0.7 1% 0.6 1/95 1/98 1/01 1/05 1/08 1/11 Yield MSCI World/YTM Moody’s Baa Index 0.5 MSCI World MSCI EM 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Index yields are for illustrative purposes. Indexes 0.3 are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 0.2 0.1 1 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. 0.0 2 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. 1/95 1/98 1/01 1/05 1/08 1/11 3 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. 4 Standard deviation is a measure of how widely values are dispersed from the average value (the mean). Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Index yields are for illustrative purposes. Indexes 5 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not 6 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. guarantee future results.
  • 4. iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES [4] nearly 60% of the yield on the Baa Bond Index by investing in the long-term average of 22%. Nor is this simply a US phenomenon: MSCI World benchmark, close to the record witnessed last fall. By companies in most developed countries continue to enjoy way of comparison, the long-term average is around 30%. Even in near-record profitability. The ROE for firms in the MSCI World early 2011, investors could only replace roughly one-third of the Index at 22% is also close to a record high. Even in emerging income of the Baa Bond Index with a broad equity index. At least on markets, profitability remains well above the average at roughly a global basis, equity yields look competitive when compared to 20% (see Figure 3). the income available in the bond market. Overpaying for Income? While the United States looks less interesting than the rest of the world from a yield perspective, even in the United States yields While we see a good opportunity in dividend-paying equities, appear more generous on a relative basis. Repeating the same we’d be reluctant to pursue that opportunity at any price. As this exercise using the S&P 500, we find the average ratio between trade has been advocated for some time, many investors are the yield on the S&P 500 and the yield-to-maturity (YTM) on the reasonably concerned that this theme has become too crowded. MOODY’S Baa Index is 29%. Today it is nearly 42%. While the For some sectors, this is probably true. absolute level of yields in the United States is close to its 20-year average, even this relatively paltry level looks more interesting To the extent that some parts of the dividend trade have gotten when compared to the alternatives.7 crowded, this is not just a function of the search for yield, as many investors have been stretching for yield for a different, Can Yields Hold? although somewhat related, reason: dividend stocks tend to have low betas, i.e., are less volatile than the broader market. Dividend yield, like value, can be an incomplete metric. Yields will mechanically rise when stock prices fall, much as they did The turmoil of the last several years has left many investors with in 2008. While this creates the temporary illusion of value, it a diminished appetite for risk. To the extent investors have not assumes that the dividend can be maintained. This proved untrue, entirely fled the equity markets, there is a marked preference for especially for financial stocks, during the 2008 crisis. Banks were stocks that are perceived as “safe.” Utility companies, and other forced to cut dividends to replenish their capital base. low-beta sectors, have been the prime beneficiaries of this trend. It is this part of the dividend space where we would be the most Today, the environment may be bleak and the outlook little concerned. better, but one bright spot is the corporate sector. Despite the overall economic malaise, investors have a reason to feel more Utilities are probably the best example of a dividend sector secure in the sustainability of dividend streams. While equity where investors are paying too high of a premium for yield. As a markets have been struggling since the spring, today’s yield is result, this is one part of the dividend space we would avoid. not a function of a bear market, as it was in late 2008, but of steadily improving corporate earnings. US utilities are currently trading at nearly 15x earnings, com- pared to an average since 1995 of around 14.5x. The stocks are As we’ve discussed previously (see “Stand or Fall: Record Profits. How Much Longer?” April Market Perspectives), given all of the troubles in the world investors continue to be pleasantly surprised by the resilience of corporate profits. Granted, growth Figure 3: Return on Equity is being driven by a ruthless attention to costs—coupled with (1995 to Present) the tailwind of cheap money and anemic wage gains—rather 26% Return on Common Equity than by stellar top-line growth. Nevertheless, for investors primarily concerned about the consistency of their income 22% stream, there is some comfort in the fact that companies have remained profitable in the midst of the worst economic recovery 18% in generations. 14% Companies in the United States continue to be among the world’s most profitable. The return on equity (ROE) for compa- 10% 1/95 1/98 1/01 1/05 1/08 1/11 nies in the S&P 500 averages 27%, significantly above the MSCI World ROE MSCI EM ROE Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. 7 Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • 5. iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES [5] even more expensive when you compare their valuation to the factor favoring utility stocks is the thirst for yield. In an environ- broader market. Typically, utilities trade at a discount to the ment in which the 10-year Treasury is barely paying 1.50%, the broader market as this is a regulated, slow growing industry. 3.50% yield on US utilities looks enticing. 12 In short, in the quest Since 1995, utilities have traded at an average discount of for both yield and safety, utilities were a natural beneficiary. roughly 25% to the S&P 500. However, today utilities are trading However, given high relative valuations and mediocre profitabil- at more than an 8% premium, the largest since late 2007. 8 ity, we believe there may be better alternatives for investors willing to cast a wider net. One argument supporting that premium would be if the sector had undergone a secular improvement in profitability. Given the Where Do We Find Yield? Look Abroad regulated nature of the utilities industry, this would be a difficult trick. In fact, today the US utilities industry is actually marginally Rather than focus on a particular sector, our general preference is less profitable than its long-term average. ROE for US large to access high-dividend companies through broad, diversified capitalization (large cap) utility companies is currently 10.5%, country funds. This approach helps to mitigate the idiosyncratic the lowest level since 2004, compared to an average of 13.25%.9 dangers associated with one sector or industry. For example, in the United States we’d favor a multi-sector fund with a smaller When you adjust valuations for profitability, US utilities look even allocation to utility companies, such as the iShares High Dividend more overvalued. Historically, you can explain roughly 25% of the Equity Fund (HDV). variation in the US utilities sector’s relative value by adjusting for the ROE. For every 1% increase in ROE, the multiple of the sector Interestingly, some of the best yield opportunities are actually typically increases by 1.4%. Today, with ROE at around 10%, you outside of the United States. This is at least partly a function of the would expect the utilities sector to trade at around a 27% fact that the United States generally trades at a premium to most discount to the S&P 500, rather than an 8% premium. 10 other countries. Currently, the S&P 500 trades at approximately 2x book value. In contrast, a global benchmark—the MSCI ACWI So why are investors paying a near 10% premium to invest in a Index—trades at roughly 1.6x book. 13 sector whose profitability is close to an eight-year low? The answer is that utilities have benefited from two big trends— a flight to safety and a flight to yield. Utilities typically benefit Figure 5: Dividend Yield by Country when risk aversion is high, as the sector has had the lowest beta, only 0.5, of any of the 10 economic sectors.11 In other words, for Czech Republic Finland Spain every percentage point the S&P 500 moves, utility stocks only Norway Poland move about half that amount, a desirable characteristic when New Zealand Australia investors are worried about downside protection. The second Taiwan Italy Brazil Morocco France Singapore United Kingdom Sweden Figure 4: US Utilities Relative Valuation Germany Colombia (1995 to Present) South Africa Russia Hungary 1.2 Malaysia P/E US Utilities vs. P/E S&P 500 China 1.1 Hong Kong Netherlands 1.0 Israel Peru Thailand 0.9 Indonesia Belgium 0.8 Canada Austria Egypt 0.7 Chile Switzerland 0.6 Philippines Japan 0.5 Turkey United States Denmark 0.4 Mexico 1/95 1/98 1/01 1/05 1/08 1/11 India South Korea 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Utilities are represented by the S&P Utility Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/12. Country yields represented by MSCI country index yields. Index yields are for illustrative purposes. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 8 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12 as represented by the S&P Utility Index. 9 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. 10 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. 12 11 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. The other sectors are consumer staples, consumer Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. 13 discretionary, energy, financials, healthcare, industrials, materials, technology, and telecommunications.
  • 6. iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES [6] With valuations lower, depending on risk tolerance, investors can When we compare the list of high-yielding countries to our country potentially increase their dividend yield through a focus on non-US rankings, there is a subset of countries that have the potential to companies. Figure 5 illustrates just how low the US dividend yield offer both yield and the prospect for capital appreciation. The is compared to the rest of the world. At 2.1%, the United States is accompanying chart illustrates the results. We would focus our fifth from the bottom of our ranking, ahead of Denmark, Mexico, search on those countries in the upper-right corner of the figure India and South Korea. (see Figure 6). Again, these are the countries that are currently offering both a high yield and are potentially undervalued. At the other extreme, 15 countries offer a yield of 4% or greater, including a number of developed markets. Even after eliminating Using this methodology, in the developed world the list of high countries at the heart of the euro crisis like Spain and Italy, there yielding, liquid (not all of the countries listed are easily accessible) are still a number of options in both Europe and Asia: Finland, and potentially undervalued countries includes Finland, Norway, Norway, New Zealand, Australia and Singapore. In addition, several New Zealand, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Germany and emerging markets offer yields well in excess of 4%. Excluding some Singapore. In the emerging market universe, we would focus the of the more speculative Eastern European names, such as the search for high yielders on Taiwan, Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Czech Republic, investors are still left with a number of Asian and For investors looking for both yield and value, we would Latin American options, such as Taiwan and Brazil. concentrate on this list. Moving beyond yield, several of these countries also offer Other Opportunities For Yield compelling value for longer-term investors. In particular, many of the countries offering the highest yields are also potentially trading Allocating by country generally offers a broad, well-diversified way below their fair value. In attempting to isolate the relative valuation to access markets. Granted, some of the countries—particularly in of a country, we rely on our proprietary country model. This emerging markets—can be fairly narrow in terms of their sector approach compares the macro fundamentals for a particular and security concentration, but in general investors are investing in country—growth prospects, profitability, risk, etc.—to current a fairly diversified collection of securities. This becomes more of a valuations. If a country’s valuation appears too low relative to its challenge when employing more niche assets, like sector funds, fundamentals, we would look to overweight that country. If, on the which by nature tend to be more concentrated and less other hand, it appears that too much good news is discounted in well-diversified. the price relative to our economic expectations, we would look to underweight that asset. The assumption is that the former group That said, while we generally prefer to allocate our equity exposure will outperform over the intermediate term while countries for by country or region, for yield-oriented investors willing to accept which valuation has outstripped macro fundamentals will more idiosyncratic risk there are a few sectors to consider. The one generally trail the broader market. sector we would emphasize is global energy. It is worth reiterating the case for each asset. The case for a modest alocation to global energy is based on Figure 6: Yield vs. Country Ranking valuation and natural inflation hedge. Energy stocks have trailed year-to-date, and as a result valuations are now very compelling. On a global basis, energy stocks are trading for less than 9x 7% Czech Republic earnings and roughly 1.3x book value, both low compared to other Finland sectors and to the sector’s own history. 14 In addition, energy stocks 6% Spain Norway historically have been particularly resilient to rising inflation. While Poland Dividend Yield Australia New Zealand our near-term outlook suggests a very small probability of any 5% Italy Taiwan Brazil Morocco meaningful acceleration in inflation, a combination of France United Kingdom Singapore Sweden unconventional monetary policy and excessive debt burdens 4% Colombia Germany South Africa Russia makes this a longer-term risk. If investors can hedge that exposure Hungary Malaysia China 3% Belgium Peru Canada Netherlands Hong Kong Israel cheaply, and at the same time generate a yield in excess of most, if Thailand Austria Indonesia Philippines Chile Turkey Egypt not all, of the Treasury curve, we think this represents an Switzerland 2% United States Japan interesting opportunity. Denmark Mexico India 1% South Korea Country Rank (shaded area represents potentially undervalued countries offering high yield) Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12. 14 Source: iShares Model Portfolio Solutions group 7/15/12.
  • 7. iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES [7] Our relatively positive view on energy is balanced by a more compared to ordinary income. Looking ahead to 2013, not only is cautious outlook on preferred stocks and REITs, two niche plays there a lack of clarity on the tax rate for dividend income, there is that investors have been turning to for yield. On the former, while a lack of clarity regarding the future rate for ordinary income as we see some opportunities for longer-term investors, we remain well as for capital gains. It is also unclear whether the dividend neutral on the asset class given the accompanying volatility. A tax rate will rise in isolation or along with a broader set of tax broad index of preferred stock is currently yielding roughly 6%,15 in hikes. Given the uncertainty surrounding the tax code, coupled line with what is available in a typical high yield fund. However, the with the fact that there is no historical precedent for a major 6% yield on preferreds comes with a fair amount of volatility, as unilateral hike in the dividend tax rate—in the sense that most preferred indices are heavily weighted toward financial dividend taxes rise but other rates remain constant—it is issues, currently the most volatile sector. As the volatility of the difficult, if not impossible, to handicap the impact of tax changes financial sector has risen, so has the volatility of preferred indices. on the preference for dividend stocks. Therefore, preferred stocks provide a yield similar to high yield, but they do so with more volatility (in addition to being lower in the capital structure). For that reason, we have not generally liked large “Common sense suggests that a allocations, as we believe a similar income can be obtained with less volatility in other asset classes. higher marginal rate on dividend We also maintain a cautious stance on REITs. A broad REIT index is income compared to capital gains currently yielding roughly 3%, in line with energy stocks. 16 However, while energy looks cheap, REIT valuations appear closer to fair would hurt dividend-paying stocks, value, if not expensive. Investors have bid up the group in a search at least in a relative sense. But by for yield, putting REIT valuations close to a four-year high. The S&P 500 large cap REIT index is trading for approximately 3x book value, how much is difficult to quantify.” representing a near 40% premium to the broader market and a 200% premium to other financial companies. On both a relative and absolute basis, valuation appears at the extreme of its Our suspicion is that should the dividend tax go up as part of a historical range. REITs appear to offer little value at current levels. broader series of tax hikes—the fiscal cliff—dividend stocks may hold up surprisingly well, despite the higher tax rate. That is What if Taxes Rise? because a massive tax hike is likely to push the United States back toward a recession, which is currently not priced into The current monetary regime and the overwhelming likelihood that financial markets. Under this scenario, a higher tax on dividends it remains in place for the foreseeable future dictate that investors is likely to be a lesser problem compared with a potential collapse are likely to continue to seek sources of equity income. However, in aggregate demand and corporate earnings. In the event of that focus may be somewhat impacted by potential changes to US another recession, investors may still flock to dividend stocks, tax policy. In the event that taxes on dividends—currently the rate particularly the low beta variety, as a safe haven, regardless of the is 15% for “qualified dividends”17 —rise, what should investors tax rate. If, on the other hand, the dividend tax rises but marginal expect? Unfortunately, on this score history is a poor guide due to rates remain the same, there is no historical precedent with the unprecedented nature of the current situation. which to estimate how dividend stocks might do on a relative basis. Common sense suggests that a higher marginal rate on Prior to 2003, dividends were generally taxed as income at the dividend income compared to capital gains would hurt dividend- prevailing rate, minus some modest exemptions (see Figure 7). paying stocks, at least in a relative sense. But by how much is Since 2003, dividends have been taxed at a preferential rate difficult to quantify. 15 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12 as represented by the S&P US Preferred Stock Index. 16 Source: Bloomberg 6/30/12 as represented by the S&P 500 REIT Index. 17 A type of dividend that meets certain criteria that allows it to be taxed at a preferential rate.
  • 8. iSHARES MARKET PERSPECTIVES [8] Figure 7: Dividend Taxation Conclusion The search for yield is an understandable response to a prolonged Year Top Tax Rate Year Top Tax Rate period of unusual monetary conditions. There is simply no modern precedent for an environment in which short-term rates are held at 1913 Exempt 1962 $50 Exempt zero for a prolonged period of time. In addition, the Fed’s dedication 1914 Exempt 1963 $50 Exempt to its asset purchase programs, which have also pushed long-term 1915 Exempt 1964 $100 Exempt rates to record lows, further complicates the situation. 1916 Exempt 1965 $100 Exempt 1917 Exempt 1966 $100 Exempt Given our expectations that growth in the developed world remains 1918 Exempt 1967 $100 Exempt below trend, we believe that the low-rate environment is likely to 1919 Exempt 1968 $100 Exempt 1920 Exempt 1969 $100 Exempt last for the next several years. Financial theory would argue that 1921 Exempt 1970 $100 Exempt investors should focus on total return, rather than exclusively on 1922 Exempt 1971 $100 Exempt income. However, the reality is that many investors will 1923 Exempt 1972 $100 Exempt understandably look for alternative sources of income to replace 1924 Exempt 1973 $100 Exempt the more traditional sources—cash and bonds—that now provide 1925 Exempt 1974 $100 Exempt little or no yield. 1926 Exempt 1975 $100 Exempt 1927 Exempt 1976 $100 Exempt In this environment, we do believe that investors should consider 1928 Exempt 1977 $100 Exempt 1929 Exempt 1978 $100 Exempt equities to supplement their income needs. However, the danger is 1930 Exempt 1979 $100 Exempt in overpaying for an income stream. We see evidence of this in a 1931 Exempt 1980 $100 Exempt number of places such as utilities and, to a lesser extent, REITs. 1932 Exempt 1981 $200 -$400 Exempt (1) On the other hand, there are pockets of value that offer attractive 1933 Exempt 1982 $200 -$400 Exempt (1) yields and the potential for capital appreciation. In particular, we 1934 Exempt 1983 (1) would advocate looking at equities in Northern Europe, developed 1935 Exempt 1984 (1) Asia, select emerging markets (Brazil, Taiwan and South Africa), as 1936 Fully Taxable 1985 Fully Taxable (1) well as energy stocks. 1937 Fully Taxable 1986 Fully Taxable (1) 1938 Fully Taxable 1987 Fully Taxable 1939 Fully Taxable 1988 Fully Taxable While we favor a dividend tilt, both as a carry play and because 1940 Exempt 1989 Fully Taxable dividend stocks generally tend to be less volatile than the broader 1941 Exempt 1990 Fully Taxable market, we are cognizant this strategy may be hurt should tax 1942 Exempt 1991 Fully Taxable rates rise in 2013. However, unless the dividend tax rate rises 1943 Exempt 1992 Fully Taxable unilaterally, the risks may be overstated. While politicians are likely 1944 Exempt 1993 Fully Taxable to wait until the last possible minute, odds still favor a last-minute 1945 Exempt 1994 Fully Taxable reprieve of the scheduled tax hikes. If, on the other hand, politicians 1946 Exempt 1995 Fully Taxable 1947 Exempt 1996 Fully Taxable stumble and all the Bush era tax cuts expire, the tax rate on 1948 Exempt 1997 Fully Taxable dividends is likely to be a small part of the problem. Under this 1949 Exempt 1998 Fully Taxable scenario, massive fiscal drag may push the United States and large 1950 Exempt 1999 Fully Taxable parts of the global economy back into recession. Should this occur, 1951 Exempt 2000 Fully Taxable a higher tax rate may be an acceptable price for the income and 1952 Exempt 2001 Fully Taxable safety of a dividend tilt. 1953 Exempt 2002 Fully Taxable 1954 $50 Exempt 2003 15% 1955 $50 Exempt 2004 15% 1956 $50 Exempt 2005 15% 1957 $50 Exempt 2006 15% 1958 $50 Exempt 2007 15% 1959 $50 Exempt 2008 15% 1960 $50 Exempt 2009 15% 1961 $50 Exempt 2010 15% 2011 39.60% Note (1): $750 to $1500 exepmt if reinvested in utilities Source: Tax Foundation (they sourced Treasury Dept. and Commerce Clearing House). Accessed on seekingalpha.com 7/19/12.
  • 9. For more information visit www.iShares.com or call 1-800-474-2737 Carefully consider the iShares Funds’ investment objectives, risk factors, Notice to residents in Australia: and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can Issued in Australia by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 be found in the Funds’ prospectuses, which may be obtained by calling 975, AFSL 230523 (“BIMAL”) to institutional investors only. iShares® exchange traded funds 1-800-iShares (1-800-474-2737) or by visiting www.iShares.com. Read the (“ETFs”) that are made available in Australia are issued by BIMAL, iShares, Inc. ARBN 125 632 prospectus carefully before investing. 279 and iShares Trust ARBN 125 632 411. BlackRock Asset Management Australia Limited Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification may not (“BAMAL”) ABN 33 001 804 566, AFSL 225 398 is the local agent and intermediary for iShares protect against market risk. ETFs that are issued by iShares, Inc. and iShares Trust. BIMAL and BAMAL are wholly-owned subsidiaries of BlackRock, Inc. (collectively “BlackRock”). A Product Disclosure Statement In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, international investments may involve (“PDS”) or prospectus for each iShares ETF that is offered in Australia is available at iShares.com. risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally au. You should read the PDS or prospectus and consider whether an iShares ETF is appropriate accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging for you before deciding to invest. iShares securities trade on ASX at market price (not, net asset markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and value (“NAV”)). iShares securities may only be redeemed directly by persons called “Authorised lower trading volume. Narrowly focused investments and investments in single countries may Participants.” exhibit higher volatility. There is no guarantee that dividend funds will pay dividends. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and should not be Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual iShares Fund construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transac- to buy any security. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective. The tion costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an information provided is not intended to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For actual iShares Fund per- any strategy. The examples presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implica- formance, please visit www.iShares.com or request a prospectus by calling 1-800-iShares tions or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of (1-800-474-2737). a given strategy. The iShares Funds that are registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission under The information provided is not intended to be tax advice. Investors should be urged to consult their the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“Funds”) are distributed in the US by BlackRock tax professionals or financial advisors for more information regarding their specific tax situations. Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”). This material is solely for educa- tional purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not to buy any shares of any fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any law of that jurisdiction. security in particular. In Latin America, for Institutional and Professional Investors Only (Not for public Distribution): BlackRock does not provide tax advice. Please note that (i) any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained in this communication cannot be used by you for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties; If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds (ii) this communication was written to support the promotion or marketing of the matters have not been registered with the securities regulator of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, addressed herein; and (iii) you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country, and thus might not be an independent tax advisor. publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. No information discussed herein can ©2012 BlackRock. All rights reserved. iShares® and BlackRock® are registered trademarks be provided to the general public in Latin America. of BlackRock. All other trademarks, servicemarks or registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners. iS-7750-0812 3918-05RB-8/12 iS-7750-0812 In Hong Kong, this document is issued by BlackRock (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Singapore, this is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N). Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value