A PowerPoint slide pack highlighting Northern Ireland's labour market trends is attached for your information. It follows last week's Quarterly Employment Survey which revealed that Northern Ireland posted its 7th successive quarterly rise in employment with all sectors of the economy recording positive growth. It is noted that Northern Ireland has now recouped over one-quarter of the jobs lost during the downturn. Furthermore, last week it was also revealed that NI's unemployment register, or claimant count, fell for the 10th consecutive month in November. The slide pack includes NI v UK employment performance by sector and analysis of full-time & part-time employment trends. The table of contents and a few pertinent charts are also highlighted below.

1. Northern Ireland Labour Market
Update
Issued 23rd December 2013
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter: @UB_Economics

2. Contents
Slide Numbers
1.
Labour Market Summary
3-4
2.
Workforce Jobs – (including NI & UK comparisons)
5-9
2.
NI Quarterly Employment Survey – (including sector performance)
10-20
3.
NI’s Job Losses, Recovery & Current Position -
21-24
4.
NI’s ‘Employment Recessions’ & Recoveries Compared
(including sector performance)
1980s v 1990s v 2007/08 - 2013 (includes sector performance)
25-29
5.
NI Public & Private Sector Employee Performance
30-35
6.
NI v UK Employee Job Performance - (including sector performance)
36-45
7.
NI v UK Full-Time & Part-Time Employment Performance
46-58
8.
Ulster Bank PMI Employment Performance
59-70
9.
Unemployment Trends (includes claimant count & Labour Force Survey)
71-86
10. Earnings (includes analysis from NI Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings 2013)
87-94

3. NI Labour Market Summary (1)
NI’s total workforce jobs increased by 0.7%, or +5,300 jobs, over the year to June 2013. This took the total number
of workforce jobs (includes employees & self employed) to 808,900 jobs in June 2013. This is 49,300 (-5.7%) below
NI’s peak in June 2008. By comparison, UK workforce jobs in June 2013 were just 0.1% below their pre-downturn
peak.
NI recorded its 7th consecutive quarterly rise in Q3 2013 according to the latest Quarterly Employment Survey (QES).
There were 3,300 jobs created in Q3 alone and a cumulative net gain of 11,400 jobs during the last 7 quarters. The
latter represents over one quarter of the jobs lost during the downturn.
All NI sectors posted employment growth in Q3 2013 with construction posting only its 2nd quarterly gain since Q4
2007. Despite this increase, NI’s construction employment remains almost 37% below its pre-downturn peak.
Construction / property related sectors have posted the steepest job losses over the last 5 years.
Full-time employees have borne the brunt of the job losses in the UK, NI and the Republic of Ireland (RoI). However,
all three economies saw the rate of job creation accelerate in Q3 2013. The RoI and the UK posted year-on-year
increases of 3.8% and 2.2% respectively. Meanwhile full-time employment in NI increased by 8,810, or 2.3%, over
the year to Q3 2013. This represented the fastest rate of employment growth since Q1 2008. Despite this recent
rise, the number of full-time jobs in NI in Q3 2013 remains 4.3% (or 20,410 jobs) below the corresponding figure in
Q3 2008 and 5.5% (26,530) below the peak recorded in Q1 2008.
The Ulster Bank PMI suggests that NI will record further employment growth, across all sectors, in Q4 2013.
NI’s claimant count, or dole queue, fell for the 10th successive month in November 2013 to 60,200. This represents a
cumulative fall of 4,700 relative to NI’s claimant count peak of 64,900 in January 2013.
NI has the highest claimant count unemployment rate of all the UK regions at 6.7% (UK = 3.8%). The NI-UK
unemployment differential (2.9 percentage points) is now wider than it was when the Good Friday Agreement was
signed back in April 1998.

4. NI Labour Market Summary (2)
Using the ILO unemployment measure, NI’s unemployment rate in the three months to October 2013 stood at 7.5%.
This compares with 12.7% for the Republic of Ireland and 7.4% for the UK. NI’s relatively low ILO unemployment
rate, when comparing with the UK average, is due to the high levels of economic inactivity. NI continues to have the
highest rates of economic inactivity within the UK (27.4%). This has the effect of lowering NI’s headline
unemployment rate as there is ‘hidden unemployment’ within the economically inactive. Furthermore, at 67.0%, NI
has the lowest employment rate of all the UK regions (UK = 72.0%).
Using the ILO unemployment measure it is noted that NI has the 2nd highest rate of youth unemployment (after
London) within the UK. NI’s unemployment rate for 18-24year-olds currently stands at 23.8%. This compares with
18.6% for the UK as a whole. NI’s youth unemployment rate is more than twice the rate that prevailed when the
Good Friday Agreement was signed.
NI has the lowest median gross annual earnings of all the UK regions. According to the latest Annual Survey of
Hours and Earnings 2013, NI’s gross annual earnings for all full-time employees stood at £23,904. This was some
11.5% lower than the UK average of just over £27,000. NI’s low annual earnings are due to below average earnings
within the private sector.
NI’s gross weekly earnings for full time employees within the private sector are some 18% below the equivalent
figure in the UK.
Since the Good Friday Agreement was signed in April 1998, the gap between the NI-UK median wages for full-time
employees has narrowed for women but widened for men.
The rate of inflation has outpaced earnings growth for most individuals since the recession began in 2008. After
inflation, the median private sector wage for all employees (full-time & part-time) has fallen by almost 20%.
Meanwhile the corresponding figure for the public sector has increased by almost 6%.
Those individuals aged under 40 years have experienced the biggest falls in real earnings between 2008-2013.

5. Workforce Jobs
Employee Jobs + Government Supported
Trainees + Self-employed

6. 49,300 fewer workforce jobs in June 2013 relative to
June 2008 – a fall of 5.7%
NI Workforce in Employment Jobs
(Employee Jobs + Self Employment + Govt supported trainees)
900,000
858.2k
Source: DFP, jobs in June of each year
808.9k
850,000
803.6k
800,000
750,000
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013

7. 14,200 fewer self-employed jobs in June 2013 relative
to June 2008 – a fall of 11.6%
NI Self-Employment Jobs
150,000
Source: DFP, jobs in June of each year
140,000
130,000
122.2k
120,000
108k
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013

8. NI has not experienced the jobs recovery that has
occurred within the UK but is now playing catch-up
Y/Y
NI & UK Workforce Jobs Annual % Growth
6%
NI
UK
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Source: DFP & NOMIS, jobs in June of each year
-6%
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013

9. UK workforce jobs are just 0.1% below their June 2008
peak whereas NI is 5.7% below its pre-downturn peak
NI & UK Workforce Jobs (as of June 2013)
3%
Source: DFP & NOMIS, June annual figures
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
NI
UK
-7%
June 2008 Peak to Trough
Recovery from Trough
Net Position Relative to
June 2008 Peak

10. Quarterly Employment Survey
(QES)
QES is an employer survey (@ 5,500 companies) that
measures the actual number of jobs (employees in
employment) as opposed to the number of individuals in
employment (as in the Labour Force Survey). The QES
excludes the self-employed but is the preferred measure of
employment within Northern Ireland

11. Summary Table – Quarterly Employment Survey
Northern Ireland Employees Jobs (Seasonally Adjusted)
Construction
Services
Manufacturing
Total
Public*
Private*
2007 Q1
43,460
567,160
83,870
715,550
220,250
495,180
Q2
44,710
571,080
84,070
720,760
220,730
500,310
Q3
45,320
575,090
83,940
725,420
219,370
506,240
Q4
46,820
578,880
83,470
729,340
219,780
509,100
2008 Q1
45,860
582,950
83,750
732,690
219,880
512,820
Q2
44,860
584,490
83,350
733,070
218,440
515,020
Q3
43,500
581,240
82,220
727,400
216,100
511,290
Q4
41,670
579,540
80,130
721,370
224,100
496,970
2009 Q1
39,420
577,730
78,230
715,340
224,460
490,920
Q2
38,210
577,080
75,290
710,490
225,030
485,690
Q3
36,780
577,450
74,010
↑ Old Series ↑
708,030
225,390
482,510
↑ Old Series ↑
DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES
↓ New Series ↓
↑ Old Series ↑
DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES
↓ New Series ↓
DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES
↓ New Series ↓
Q4
37,120
580,970
73,330
711,250
225,010
486,100
2010 Q1
36,960
579,810
73,150
709,760
486,340
Q2
36,200
579,080
73,030
707,930
223,560
,
221,790
Q3
35,790
576,250
72,930
704,770
219,630
484,920
Q4
33,610
573,540
73,850
700,830
219,330
481,470
2011 Q1
33,370
573,340
73,690
700,250
216,810
480,510
Q2
32,780
697,240
216,810
480,510
32,930
570,770
,
569,060
73,430
Q3
73,750
695,750
215,340
480,150
Q4
31,640
564,690
75,490
691,620
214,090
477,560
2012 Q1
31,480
565,630
74,820
691,750
214,430
477,490
486,290
Q2
31,360
566,100
75,240
693,320
213,830
479,530
Q3
31,020
567,840
74,990
694,390
214,030
480,070
Q4
29,820
569,960
74,340
694,720
214,500
480,270
2013 Q1
29,630
570,840
74,470
695,440
214,680
480,880
Q2
29,400
574,030
75,670
699,720
215,170
484,530
Q3
29,720
576,230
76,370
703,020
215,130
487,640
Latest Quarter Q/Q % Change
1.1%
0.4%
0.9%
0.5%
0.0%
0.6%
Latest Quarter Y/Y % Change
‐4.2%
1.5%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
1.6%
Fall from peak ‐ Nos
‐17,100
‐8,260
‐7,700
‐30,050
‐5,600
‐27,380
Fall from peak % Change
‐36.5%
‐1.4%
‐9.2%
‐4.1%
‐2.5%
‐5.3%
Source: DFP, *Public & Private splits may not sum to total,** includes transfer of part‐nationalised financial institutions from private to public sector. Peak to trough fall does not strictly use comparable data and is indicative only

12. NI posts its second largest quarterly increase (+3,300) in
over 5 years (Q4 2009 represents start of new series & therefore not a Q/Q rise)
NI Employee Jobs Quarterly Change
Nos
Excludes self-employed
6000
+11,400
Discontinuity in Series
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
19,630
-6000
25,040
-8000
Source: DFP
Q3 2006
Q1 2008
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q1 2012
Q3 2013

13. NI posts its 7th consecutive quarterly rise in Q3 2013 of 0.5%
or 3,300 jobs (Q4 2009 represents start of new series & therefore not a Q/Q rise)
NI Employee Jobs Excludes Self-Employed
Q/Q % Change
1.0%
0.8%
Q/Q
Y/Y
Y/Y % Change
3%
Discontinuity in Series
0.6%
2%
0.4%
1%
0.2%
0%
0.0%
-0.2%
-1%
-0.4%
-2%
-0.6%
-3%
-0.8%
-1.0%
Source: DFP
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013
-4%

14. Current employment levels back at late-2005 levels
Northern Ireland Employee Jobs
750,000
733,070
703,020
700,000
Discontinuity
in Series
650,000
613,250
Q2 1998
600,000
550,000
Source: DFP
500,000
Q3 1993
Q3 1997
Q3 2001
Q3 2005
Q3 2009
Q3 2013

15. Service sector posts its 7th consecutive quarterly rise
NI Services Employee Jobs Quarterly Change
Excludes self-employed
Nos
6,000
Discontinuity in Series
+11,540
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-16,280
-7,410
-6,000
Source: DFP
-8,000
Q2
2007
Q1
2008
Q4
2008
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q3
2010
Q2
2011
Q1
2012
Q4
2012
Q3
2013

16. Service sector employment is back to late-2007 levels
Northern Ireland Services Employee Jobs
625,000
584,490
574,030
575,000
Discontinuity in
Series
525,000
475,000
Q2 1998
454,990
425,000
Source: DFP
375,000
Q3 1993
Q3 1997
Q3 2001
Q3 2005
Q3 2009
Q3 2013

17. Manufacturing employment posts its third successive
quarterly increase 0.9% q/q (700 jobs) in Q3 2013
NI Manufacturing Employee Jobs
Quarterly Change (Excludes self-employed)
Nos
2,000
1,500
Discontinuity in Series
1,000
-9,740
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
-3,000
Source: DFP
Q2
2007
Q1
2008
Q4
2008
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q3
2010
Q2
2011
Q1
2012
Q4
2012
Q3
2013

18. Manufacturing employment is now at its highest level
since Q1 2009 after the long-term trend of job losses
NI Manufacturing Employee Jobs Levels
120,000
104,940 (Q3 1998 just
after GFA)
110,000
100,000
90,000
84,070
Q2 2007
80,000
76,370
70,000
Discontinuity in Series
60,000
Source: DFP
50,000
Q3 1993
Q3 1997
Q3 2001
Q3 2005
Q3 2009
Q3 2013

19. Construction sector posts only its second quarter of
employment growth since Q4 2007
NI Construction Employee Jobs
Quarterly Change (Excludes self-employed)
Nos
2,000
1,500
1,000
Discontinuity in Series
+320
500
-10,040
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
Source: DFP
3
20
13
13
Q
3
Q
3
Q
1
20
12
20
12
20
11
Q
Q
3
20
20
1
Q
3
Q
1
Q
11
10
20
10
20
09
Q
3
20
1
Q
3
Q
1
Q
20
08
20
08
20
07
20
3
Q
09
-2,500

20. Construction employment back to Good Friday
Agreement (1998) levels
NI Construction Employee Jobs Levels
50,000
46,820
45,000
40,000
35,000
Discontinuity
in Series
29,720
30,000
Back to
1998 levels
25,000
Source: DFP, QES
20,000
Q3 1993
Q3 1997
Q3 2001
Q3 2005
Q3 2009
Q3 2013

21. Northern Ireland’s
Job losses, recovery and
current (net) position
2007/08-2013

22. All sectors have now shown some signs of recovery
Northern Ireland Employment
(Employee Jobs)
10%
Peak to Trough
Recovery from Trough
Q3 2013 Relative to Peak
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Source: DFP, QES
-40%
All Sectors
Services
Manufacturing
Construction

23. Utilities post largest annual % gain over the last year whilst
construction records the biggest decline
Northern Ireland Employment Change (Ranked by % change)
September 2012 ‐ September 2013
Broad Industrial Group
Utilities, Admin,
Manufacturing,
ICT & tourism
related sectors
Construction /
property
related
Net Job Change
% Change
Year‐on‐Year Risers
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
Administrative & support service activities
Professional, scientific & technical activities
Information & communication
Real estate activities
Human health & social work activities
Manufacturing
Accomodation & food service activities
Transport & storage
Other service activities
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining & quarrying
Year‐on‐Year Fallers
Public administration & defence; social security
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Education
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
Financial & insurance activities
Construction
‐130
‐40
‐260
‐40
‐730
‐1,300
‐0.2%
‐0.3%
‐0.4%
‐0.8%
‐3.8%
‐4.2%
Total
8,810
1.3%
↑↑↑
180
2,850
1,570
940
300
2,360
1,390
700
160
90
780
10
0
12.6%
6.8%
6.6%
5.9%
4.2%
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Utilities, Admin,
Manufacturing,
ICT & tourism
related sectors
↓↓↓
Source: DFP ‐ Quarterly Employment Survey (Seasonally Unadjusted), Excludes self‐employed
Construction /
property
related

24. Property related sectors & manufacturing have seen the
biggest job losses over the last 5 years
Northern Ireland Employment Change (Ranked by % change)
September 2008 ‐ September 2013
Broad Industrial Group
Utilities, Real
Estate,
Entertainment
& Agriculture
Construction /
property
related
Net Job Change
% Change
↑↑↑
Year‐on‐Year Risers
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
Real estate activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Professional, scientific & technical activities
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Human health & social work activities
Administrative & support service activities
Information & communication
Other service activities
Year‐on‐Year Fallers
Education
Accomodation & food service activities
Public administration & defence; social security
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Transport & storage
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
Manufacturing
Financial & insurance activities
Mining & quarrying
Construction
‐440
‐840
‐2,680
‐6,110
‐1,280
‐250
‐5,930
‐1,830
‐470
‐13,780
‐0.7%
‐1.9%
‐4.6%
‐4.7%
‐5.0%
‐5.1%
‐7.2%
‐9.1%
‐22.0%
‐31.7%
Total
‐23,340
‐3.2%
420
1,010
1,290
1,440
560
3,750
1,260
430
140
35.3%
15.6%
9.3%
6.0%
4.6%
3.3%
2.9%
2.6%
1.0%
Utilities, Real
Estate,
Entertainment
& Agriculture
↓↓↓
Source: DFP ‐ Quarterly Employment Survey (Seasonally Unadjusted), Excludes self‐employed
Construction /
property
related

25. Northern Ireland’s
‘Employment Recessions’
& Recoveries Compared
1980s
1990s
2008-2013

26. Job losses in the latest downturn not as steep as the 1980s. But
returning to peak is likely to take longer than 1980s (10yrs)
Index
125
NI Employee Jobs Recessions / Recoveries
Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100
1980s
1990s
1990s
10yrs after peak employment
rose by 19%
2008-2013
120
115
110
In 1990 UK recession, NI employment fell
slightly & troughed 2 years after the prerecession peak
105
2008-2013
5 years (21 quarters) after 2008 Q2 peak NI jobs
are still 4.1% lower as of Q2 2013
100
1980s
10yrs after downturn
employment returns to peak
95
90
85
Employment troughed (-7.5%)13 quarters after 1979
Q4 peak & was 5.9% below peak after 21 quarters
(just over 5 years)
Source: DFP & UB Calculations
80
Peak 1 year
2yrs
3yrs
4yrs
5yrs
6yrs
7yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak
8yrs
9yrs
10yrs

27. Manufacturing job losses have been nowhere near what
they were like in the 1980s but recovery may be similar
NI Manufacturing Recessions & Recoveries in
Index
105
Employee Jobs (Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100)
1980s
1990s
2007-2013
100
95
0.7% below Q3 1990 peak
after >6 years (25 quarters)
90
>6 years (25 Quarters) after
Q2 2007 peak employment
is 9% lower
85
employment was 27% lower
>6 years after Q2 1979 peak
80
75
70
Source: DFP & UB Calculations
65
Peak
1 year
2yrs
3yrs
4yrs
5yrs
6yrs
7yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak
8yrs
9yrs
10yrs

28. In terms of job losses, construction has experienced
its fastest & deepest recession on record
NI Construction Recessions & Recoveries Compared
Index
130
(Employee Jobs Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100)
1980s
1990s
2007- 2013
Peak 1990 Q3
120
Current recession has seen construction employment plummet.
Almost 6 years (23 quarters) after the downturn employment
was still 36% below Q4 2007 peak. At this stage of the 1980s
recession employment had fallen by just 26%
110
100
90
80
Peak 1979 Q2
70
60
2007Q4 - 2013 Q3
Source: DFP & UB calculations
50
Peak
1 year
2yrs
3yrs
4yrs
5yrs
6yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak
7yrs
8yrs
9yrs
10yrs

29. Service sector jobs recovery underway. However, it
remains the slowest and weakest recovery to date
Index
130
NI Service Sector Recoveries in Employee Jobs
Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100
1980s
125
1990s
2008-2013
+27% rise
in 10yrs
120
115
110
1990s: NI lacked a developed private
services sector which explains lack of job
losses in early 1990s UK recession
+15% rise
in 10 years
105
1980s: 21 quarters after employment peak
service sector employment was 4% above
pre-recession peak
100
95
Peak Q1 2008 - Q3 2013
90
This is the weakest & slowest service sector recovery.
21 quarters on employment still 1.4% below peak
85
Source: DFP & UB Calculations
80
Peak
1 year
2yrs
3yrs
4yrs
5yrs
6yrs
7yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak
8yrs
9yrs
10yrs

30. NI Public Sector v Private Sector
Employment Levels
& Growth

31. Headline public & private sector growth rates are misleading
due to reclassification of some institutions as public sector
NI Public & Private Sector Employment Growth
Public
Private
6%
Job gains exaggerated as @5k
jobs in financial institutions
reclassified as public sector
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Job losses exaggerated as @5k
jobs in financial institutions moved
from private to public sector
-4%
Source: DFP
-6%
Q3
1993
Q3
1995
Q3
1997
Q3
1999
Q3
2001
Q3
2003
Q3
2005
Q3
2007
Q3
2009
Q3
2011
Q3
2013

32. Both public & private sector employment levels are
higher in Q3 2013 than they were last year
NI Public v Private Sector Employment Growth
6%
Public* (excluding financial institutions)
Private* (incl. part-nationalised institutions)
4%
Return of private
sector jobs
growth
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Source: DFP, *Ulster Bank estimates
-6%
Q3
1993
Q3
1995
Q3
1997
Q3
1999
Q3
2001
Q3
2003
Q3
2005
Q3
2007
Q3
2009
Q3
2011
Q3
2013

33. Private sector employment growth has risen in each of
the last 6 quarters but is still at mid-2006 levels
NI Private Sector Employee Jobs
550,000
Source: DFP & UB estimates
525,000
515,020
491,640
500,000
475,000
450,000
425,000
487,640
Good Friday
Agreement
Signed April 1998
418,170 Q2 1998
400,000
375,000
Private Sector Unadjusted for Financial Institutions reclassification
350,000
Private Sector Adjusted (incl. part-nationalised institutions)
325,000
Q3 1993
Q3 1997
Q3 2001
Q3 2005
Q3 2009
Q3 2013

34. Public sector employment boom has been & gone. A period
of job losses (attrition & non-replacement) is anticipated
NI Public Sector Employee Jobs Levels
230,000
Source: DFP, * UB estimates
Pre-recession peak
Q4 2005
221,040
220,000
215,130
210,000
211,130
+26,000 jobs
(13%) in 7yrs
post GFA
200,000
190,000
Good Friday Agreement
April 1998
195,120 Q2 98
Public sector employment
boosted by @5k in Q4 2008 as
part-nationalised financial
institutions reclassified as
public sector. Public sector
jobs (excl. financial institutions)
now estimated at @211k or
2003 levels.
180,000
Q3
1993
Q3
1995
Q3
1997
Q3
1999
Public Unadjusted
Q3
2001
Q3
2003
Q3
2005
Q3
2007
Q3
2009
Q3
2011
Public Adjusted* (excl. financial institutions)
Q3
2013

35. Private sector employment remains an estimated 4.5%
since peak with public sector down an estimated 3.4%
NI Public & Private Sector Employment % Change
Q2 2008 - Q3 2013
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
Source: DFP & *UB Estimates
-8%
Headline Public Sector
Headline Private
Sector
Public Sector*
Private Sector* (incl.
(excl.part-nationalised
part-nationalised
financial institutions) financial institutions)

36. NI V UK
Employment Performance
Employee Jobs by Sector

37. NI & the UK both post strong rates of employment
growth in Q2 & Q3 2013
Q/Q
NI v UK Quarterly Employment Growth
(Employee Jobs)
1.5%
NI
UK
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-1.0%
Q3 2007
Q3 2008
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
Q3 2013

38. NI playing catch-up with the UK employment recovery
NI & UK Annual Employment Growth
5%
NI
NI playing catch-up with UK
employment recovery
UK
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
NI outperformed
the UK in the early
1990s but not now
-2%
-3%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-4%
Q3
1983
Q3
1986
Q3
1989
Q3
1992
Q3
1995
Q3
1998
Q3
2001
Q3
2004
Q3
2007
Q3
2010
Q3
2013

39. NI’s construction sector posts a quarter of growth after
7 quarters of decline
Q/Q
NI v UK Construction Employment Growth Q/Q
(Employee Jobs)
4%
NI
UK
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-8%
Q3 2007
Q3 2008
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
Q3 2013

40. UK construction industry posts modest 0.4% y/y
decline in Q3 2013 while NI records a hefty 4.2% fall
Construction Annual Employment Growth
Employee Jobs
30%
NI
UK
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
NI outperformed the
UK in the early 1990s
but not now
-10%
-15%
-20%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
Q3
1983
Q3
1986
Q3
1989
Q3
1992
Q3
1995
Q3
1998
Q3
2001
Q3
2004
Q3
2007
Q3
2010
Q3
2013

41. Both NI & UK post strong rates of manufacturing
employment growth in Q2 & Q3 2013
NI v UK Manufacturing Employment Growth Q/Q
Q/Q
(Employee Jobs)
3%
NI
UK
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-6%
Q3 2007
Q3 2008
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
Q3 2013

42. NI’s employment recovery within the manufacturing
sector has outperformed the UK
Y/Y
4%
NI & UK Manufacturing Annual Employment Growth
NI
UK
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
NI outperformed the
UK in the early 1990s
but not in 2009
-10%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-12%
Q3
1983
Q3
1986
Q3
1989
Q3
1992
Q3
1995
Q3
1998
Q3
2001
Q3
2004
Q3
2007
Q3
2010
Q3
2013

43. NI & UK service sectors post strong rates of jobs growth
in Q3 2013. The 7th successive quarter of growth for NI
Q/Q
NI v UK Services Quarterly Employment Growth
(Employee Jobs)
1.5%
NI
UK
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-1.5%
Q3 2007
Q3 2008
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
Q3 2013

44. Until recently NI’s service sector employment recovery
has lagged significantly behind that of the UK
Service Sector Annual Employment Growth
Y/Y
5%
NI
UK
4%
NI lagging UK
employment recovery
3%
2%
1%
0%
NI outperformed
the UK in the early
1990s but not now
-1%
-2%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-3%
Q3 1983
Q3 1989
Q3 1995
Q3 2001
Q3 2007
Q3 2013

45. Apart from manufacturing, NI’s job losses have been
more severe than in the UK
Employee jobs relative to pre-downturn peaks
as of Q3 2013
5%
0%
-5%
NI peak Q2 2008
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-45%
NI peak Q2 2008
NI peak Q2 2007
NI peak Q4 2007
Construction
NI
Manufacturing
UK
Services
Source: DFP & NOMIS
Total

46. NI & UK Employee Jobs,
RoI Employment
Full-Time & Part-Time

47. Employment boom was predominantly part-time jobs
while employment gloom was largely for full-timers
NI Annual Employment Growth
Y/Y
Full-Time & Part-Time Employee Jobs
10%
Full-Time
8%
Part-Time
Part-time employment growing at a much
faster rate than full-time employment
Total
Surge in Full-Time employment
6%
Recovery in PartTime jobs
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Full-Time employment fell at a much
faster rate than part-time
-4%
Source: DFP, Figures are not seasonally adjusted
-6%
Sep-93
Mar-96
Sep-98
Mar-01
Sep-03
Mar-06
Sep-08
Mar-11
Sep-13

48. There are more part-time manufacturing jobs now than
there were before the downturn
NI Employee jobs relative to pre-downturn peaks
Q3 2013
15%
Full-Time
Part-Time
5%
-1.2%
-5%
-4.3%
-15%
-25%
-35%
Source: DFP Unadjusted figures, * relative to September 2008
-45%
Manufacturing
Construction
Services
Total*

49. …leading to a change in NI’s employment mix
% of NI Employee Jobs Full-Time v Part-Time
75%
Full-Time
Part-Time
Full-time employment's
share rising again
65%
Full-time employment's share of total employment is falling
55%
45%
Part-time employment's share of total employment is rising
35%
Source: DFP
25%
Sep-93
Mar-96
Sep-98
Mar-01
Sep-03
Mar-06
Sep-08
Mar-11
Sep-13

50. In terms of full-time employment, NI outperformed the UK in
the boom but until recently has lagged the UK recovery
NI & UK Full-Time Annual Employment Growth
Y/Y
Employee Jobs
6%
UK
NI
4%
NI outperforming UK
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-6%
Sep-93
Mar-96
Sep-98
Mar-01
Sep-03
Mar-06
Sep-08
Mar-11
Sep-13

51. NI’s full-time employment back to mid-2005 levels
NI Full-time & Part-time Employee Jobs
Index
Indexed Q1 1998 = 100
140
FT
PT
130
120
110
NI full-time employment
still at mid-2005 levels
100
90
Source: DFP, figures are not seasonally adjusted
80
Sep-98 May-00 Jan-02 Sep-03 May-05 Jan-07 Sep-08 May-10 Jan-12 Sep-13

52. RoI is now experiencing the fastest rate of employment
growth amongst full-time employees
Full-Time Annual Employment Growth
Employee Jobs
Y/Y
UK
10%
NI
RoI
RoI outperforming
NI & UK during
Celtic Tiger boom
5%
3.8%
2.3%
2.2%
0%
-5%
-10%
RoI underperforming
NI & UK during
Celtic Tiger bust
Source: CSO, DFP & Nomis
-15%
Sep-93
Mar-96
Sep-98
Mar-01
Sep-03 Mar-06
Sep-08
Mar-11
Sep-13

53. RoI largely outperformed the UK & NI in terms of part-time
employment growth before during & after the downturn
Part-Time Annual Employment Growth
Employee Jobs
Y/Y
UK
15%
NI
RoI outperforming
NI & UK during
Celtic Tiger boom
12%
RoI
RoI still outperforming
NI & UK during
Celtic Tiger bust & recovery
9%
6%
3%
2.2%
1.0%
0%
-0.6%
-3%
-6%
Source: CSO, DFP & Nomis
-9%
Sep-93
Mar-96
Sep-98
Mar-01
Sep-03
Mar-06
Sep-08
Mar-11
Sep-13

54. RoI’s rebound in Full-Time employment is due to the fact
it is coming off extremely low levels
NI v UK v RoI Full-Time Employment Levels*
Index
110
Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100
NI
UK
RoI
Pre-Recession Peak
105
100
-2.3%
-5.5%
95
90
85
-18.5%
80
Source: ONS, CSO & DFP, *NI & UK unadjusted employee jobs
75
Peak
Q2
1yr
Q6
2yrs Q10 3yrs Q14 4yrs Q18
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak
5yrs Q22
6yrs

55. Since the downturn, part-time employment is almost 16%
higher in the RoI and almost 2% higher in the UK
NI v UK v RoI Part-Time Employment Levels*
Index
120
Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100
NI
UK
RoI
Pre-Recession Peak
+15.6%
115
110
105
+1.6%
100
-2.3%
95
Source: ONS, CSO & DFP, *NI & UK unadjusted employee jobs
90
Peak
Q2
1yr
Q6
2yrs Q10 3yrs Q14 4yrs Q18
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak
5yrs Q22
6yrs

56. NI males and females have recouped some of the
jobs lost during the downturn
NI Employee Jobs by gender & work pattern
Males
4%
Females
All Employees
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Source: DFP
-10%
Full-time
Parttime
Sep-08 to Sep-13
All
Full-time
Parttime
All
Trough relative to Sep-08
Full-time
Parttime
All
Recovery from trough

57. There are 2.9% more males in part-time employment
than 5 years ago but 6% fewer full-time employees
NI Employee Jobs by gender & work pattern
% Change September 2008 - September 2013
6%
Males
Females
All Employees
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Source: DFP
-10%
Full-time
Parttime
All
Full-time
Parttime
All
Full-time
Parttime
All

58. In terms of part-time employment, NI outperformed the UK in
the first part of the downturn but lagged in the recovery
Y/Y
NI & UK Part-Time Annual Employment Growth
Employee Jobs
10%
UK
NI
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Source: DFP & Nomis
-6%
Sep-93
Mar-96
Sep-98
Mar-01
Sep-03
Mar-06
Sep-08
Mar-11
Sep-13

59. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
November 2013 Survey Update
Issued 9th December 2013
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

60. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

61. UK, RoI & NI firms all experienced jobs growth in
November albeit at a weaker rate than October
Private Sector Employment Levels
Monthly
60
UK
RoI
Job Gains
NI
55
50
Job Losses
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

62. …with all sectors also reporting job gains over the last 3
months
NI PMI - Employment Index
3 month moving average
65
Manufacturing
Services
Construction
Job Gains
60
55
50
Job Losses
45
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

63. All the UK regions and the Republic of Ireland post
employment growth in November …
Employment Levels
November 2013
PMI Index
50 = No change
60
58
55.5
56
54.8
52
Increasing
54
51.2
Decreasing
50
48
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
46
Lon SW WM East SE
UK NW Scot EM Wal NE
NI Y&H
RoI

64. … and over the last 3 months to November
Employment Levels
3 months to November 2013
PMI Index
58
50 = No change
56
55.3
54.7
Increasing
54
51.9
52
Decreasing
50
48
46
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
44
Lon WM SW
SE
UK NW East Wal Scot
NI
EM Y&H NE
RoI

65. NI posts a marginal decline in employment with the West
Midlands & RoI the sharpest rise over the last 12 months
Employment Levels
PMI Index
12 months to November 2013
50 = No change
54
53.2
Increasing
52.1
52
50
49.9
Decreasing
48
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
46
WM SE East Lon SW
UK Scot Wal NW EM Y&H NE
NI
RoI

66. Northern Ireland Quarterly
Employment Survey (QES)
V
Markit Economics / Ulster
Bank PMI

67. PMI signals further employment growth in Q4 2013
PMI Index
NI Employment: PMI v QES**
Q/Q
60
1.0%
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the
number of jobs in NI & includes public sector
Job
gains
55
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
Discontinuity in QES Series
50
0.0%
-0.3%
45
-0.5%
Job
losses
40
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics,
PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between
expansion / contraction, * for PMI refers to average
for October & November
-1.0%
-1.3%
35
2003 Q4
-0.8%
-1.5%
2005 Q4
2007 Q4
PMI Employment Index
2009 Q4
No Change
2011 Q4
QES Q/Q
2013 Q4*

68. Services PMI more negative than QES in recent
quarters. PMI signals further job gains in Q4 2013
PMI Index
65
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES*
Q/Q
1.5%
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of
jobs in NI and includes the public sector
1.0%
60
Job
gains
Discontinuity in QES Series
55
0.5%
50
0.0%
45
-0.5%
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics,
PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between
expansion / contraction, * for PMI refers to
October & November average
Job losses
-1.0%
40
2003 Q4
2005 Q4
2007 Q4
PMI Employment Index
2009 Q4
No Change
2011 Q4
QES Q/Q
2013 Q4*

69. Manufacturing PMI suggests further jobs growth in Q4
PMI Index
65
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES**
Q/Q
4%
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment
Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
60
Job
gains
Discontinuity in
QES Series
3%
2%
55
1%
50
0%
45
-1%
Job
losses
40
35
-3%
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics,
PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between
expansion / contraction, * for PMI refers to
average for October & November
-4%
-5%
30
2003 Q4
-2%
2005 Q4
2007 Q4
PMI Employment Index
2009 Q4
2011 Q4
No Change
2013 Q4*
QES Q/Q
Slide 69

70. The PMI & official QES numbers have pointed to job losses
throughout downturn. PMI suggests more growth in Q4 2013
PMI Index
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES**
65
Q/Q
5.0%
**QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
60
Job
gains
55
Discontinuity in QES Series
50
2.5%
0.0%
45
-2.5%
40
35
30
25
-5.0%
Job losses
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics,
PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between
expansion / contraction, * for PMI refers to
average for October & November
-7.5%
20
2003 Q4
-10.0%
2005 Q4
2007 Q4
PMI Employment Index
2009 Q4
No Change
2011 Q4
2013 Q4*
QES Q/Q
Slide 70

71. Unemployment

72. NI dole queue falls for the 10th month in a row
NI unemployment falling
M/M
5,000
4,000
3,000
Claimant Count Monthly Change
Nov
2008
+3,200
2,000
1,000
-4,700
0
-1,000
Source: DFP
-2,000
May-07
Jun-08
Jul-09
Aug-10
Sep-11
Oct-12
Nov-13
Slide 72

73. …the overall dole queue set to fall back below 60,000
NI Unemployment Claimant Count Levels
140,000
Jan 2013
64,900 at
mid-1997 levels
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
60,200
Good Friday
Agreement signed
April 1998
57,900
40,000
20,000
Source: DFP
Record low
Aug 07
23,600
0
Nov-86 Nov-89 Nov-92 Nov-95 Nov-98 Nov-01 Nov-04 Nov-07 Nov-10 Nov-13
Slide 73

74. It’s been a ‘Mancession’, but there now appear to be
more jobs for the boys
NI 12 Monthly Change in Claimant Count
25,000
Male
Female
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: DFP, ONS
-5,000
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Slide 74

75. Male unemployment heading down towards 40,000
NI Claimant Count by Gender
100,000
Male
Female
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Nov-71
Source: ONS, NOMIS
Nov-77
Nov-83
Nov-89
Nov-95
Nov-01
Nov-07
Nov-13
Slide 75

76. The number of claimants <25 years of age claiming the dole
has been falling but is it due to employment of emigration?
Youth unemployment falls in November
Claimant Count Monthly Change
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
Source: DFP
Youth unemployment figures are not seasonally adjusted. Therefore the spike in July
and fall in October is largely due to leaving school and starting education
-1,500
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Slide 76

77. No. of under 25s claiming the dole now at its lowest level
since February 2009 & just 9% (1,254) above GFA levels
NI Youth Claimant Count Levels
25,000
<25 years of age
GFA
April 1998
14,145
19,551
Highest level since
October 1996
20,000
15,399
15,000
Nov 07 low
7,050
10,000
5,000
Source: DFP
0
Nov-97
Nov-99
Nov-01
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13
Slide 77

78. But NI-UK unemployment differential is now wider than it
was when the Good Friday Agreement was signed in Apr-98
NI-UK unemployment rate differential widening
%
8
NI
7
UK
GFA Apr 1998
2.8 pp
6
6.7%
2.9 pp
5
4
3.8%
3
2
1
Source: ONS / DFP Claimant Count
0
Feb-98
May-00
Aug-02
Nov-04
Feb-07
May-09
Aug-11
Nov-13
Slide 78

79. NI has the highest unemployment rate of all the UK regions
using the claimant count measure
Claimant Count Unemployment by UK Region
November 2013
%
7
Source: DFP & ONS, % of Workforce
6.7
6.1
6
5
4
3.8
3
2
SE
SW
East
Lon
EM
UK
Scot
NW
Wal
WM Y&H
NE
NI
Slide 79

80. Using ILO measure, NI’s headline rate is on a par with the UK.
RoI’s unemployment rate now following a downward trend
UK, NI & RoI (ILO) Unemployment Rates
16%
NI
UK
RoI
14%
12%
12.7%
10%
8%
7.5%
7.4%
6%
4%
2%
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey & RoI Live Register
0%
Oct-97
Oct-99
Oct-01
Oct-03
Oct-05
Oct-07
Oct-09
Oct-11
Oct-13
Slide 80

81. 5 regions have a higher rate than NI using the ILO
unemployment rate (Wales also 7.5%)
ILO Unemployment Rate
Rate
August - October 2013
12%
10.1%
10%
8%
7.5%
7.4%
6%
4%
2%
0%
East
SE
SW
EM Scot
UK
Wal
NI
NW
Lon Y&H WM
NE
Slide 81

82. Almost 1 in 4 of under 25’s in NI looking for work cannot find any
ILO Unemployment Rates by Age-Group
August - October 2013
25%
Source: DFP
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
18-24
25-49
50+
Age Category
16+
Slide 82

83. NI has the 2nd highest youth unemployment rate in the UK
ILO Youth Unemployment Rate (18-24yr olds)
Rate
August-October 2013
30%
Source: ONS
23.8%
25%
25.2%
18.6%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
SW
SE
East Wal
NW
EM Scot
UK
WM Y&H NE
NI
Lon
Slide 83

84. NI’s current youth unemployment rate is > twice the rate that
prevailed when the Good Friday Agreement was signed
Northern Ireland Youth Unemployment Rate (ILO)
25%
23.8%
20%
Good Friday Agreement
Apr-98 10.6%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: DFP Labour Force Survey (LFS)
Oct-95
Oct-98
Oct-01
Oct-04
Oct-07
Oct-10
Oct-13
Slide 84

85. NI has the lowest employment rate in the UK…
ILO Employment Rate (16-64yr olds)
August - October 2013
Employment Rate
80
75
72.0
70
67.0
65
60
NI
NE
NW
WM
Wal
Lon Y&H
UK
Scot
EM
SW East
SE
Slide 85

86. …and the highest rate of economic inactivity
Rate %
ILO Economic Inactivity Rate Rate (16-64yr olds)
August - October 2013
30
27.4
25
22.1
20
15
SE
East SW Scot
EM
UK
Y&H Lon
Wal
WM
NE
NW
NI
Slide 86

87. Earnings

88. NI’s full-time employees have the lowest earnings
of all the UK regions…
Median Gross Weekly Earnings 2013
Median Gross Annual Earnings 2013
£
£ per wk
All Employees Full-Time
35,000
All Employees Full-Time
700
Source: DFP & ONS ASHE
Source: DFP ASHE
32,500
650
30,000
600
27,500
27,017
550
517.5
25,000
23,904
500
460
22,500
450
20,000
400
Lon
SE East UK Scot SW
EM WM NW Y&H Wal
NE
NI
Lon
SE
UK
Scot East WM NW
SW Y&H EM
Wal
NE
NI

89. …this is due to NI having the lowest private sector
earnings for full-time employees of any UK region
Median Gross Weekly Earnings 2013
£ per wk
All Private Sector Employees Full-Time
700
Source: DFP ASHE
650
600
550
490.1
500
450
402.5
400
350
300
250
Lon
SE
UK East Scot WM SW Y&H NW
EM
NE
Wal
NI

90. Since the GFA, the gap between NI-UK median wages for fulltime employees has narrowed for women but widened for men
NI Median Full-Time Earnings as a % of UK
%
Men
Women
All
100
GFA signed
April 1998
96
95
90
89
86
85
Source: DFP Annual Survey of Household Earnings (ASHE) 2013
80
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Slide 90

91. In NI, the rate of inflation has outpaced earnings growth
for most individuals
% Change in N.Ireland Median Wages v UK Inflation
Cumulative Increase 2007-2013*
30%
Source: DFP ASHE & ONS, * April each year
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Total
Public Private
All Employees
Total
Public Private
Full-Time Employees Only
CPI
RPI
Inflation

92. After inflation the median private sector wage has fallen
by almost 20% in real terms (after CPI inflation)
% Change in N.Ireland Median Wages in Real Terms
Cumulative Increase 2007-2013*
10%
Source: DFP ASHE & ONS, * April each year
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Total
Public
Private
All Employees (Full-Time & Part-Time)
Total
Public
Private
Full-Time Employees Only

93. Those aged under 30 years of age have median earnings
below the NI average…
NI Annual Median Gross Pay By Age-Group
£000
30
Full-Time Employees 2013
NI Average for all age-groups
Source: DFP ASHE, April 2013
25
20
17.5
15
10
5
0
Age 18-21
Age 22-29
Age 30-39
Age 40-49
Age 50-59
Age 60+

94. … & those under 40 (including the household formation 25-34 yrs
category) have experienced the biggest falls in real earnings
NI Gross Median Wages for Full-Time Employees
Cumulative Change in Real Terms 2007-2013*
0%
-5%
-6.3%
-10%
NI average change for
employees from all age-groups
-15%
-20%
Source: DFP ASHE & ONS, *using CPI inflation in April each year
-25%
Age 18-21
Age 22-29
Age 30-39
Age 40-49
Age 50-59
Age 60+

95. Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is
not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in
any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or
engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and
are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be
construed as such.
This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here
without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the
information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular
transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incur
substantial costs if you wish to close out your position.
Calls may be recorded.
Slide 95