The document provides an analysis of economic performance in various regions including Northern Ireland, the UK, Eurozone and globally based on Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys. It finds that while global and UK output growth accelerated in November, the Eurozone experienced a slowdown due to its services sector. Northern Ireland, the UK and Republic of Ireland posted the fastest rates of services sector growth. All sectors in Northern Ireland reported increased output and job gains over the last three months.

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
November 2013 Survey Update
Issued 9th December 2013
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. Global output growth accelerates in November due
to both the services & manufacturing sectors
Global Output - PMI
65
Source: Markit Economics
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
30
Total
25
Jun-07
May-08
Apr-09
Manufacturing
Mar-10
Feb-11
Services
Jan-12
Dec-12
Nov-13

4. … but the Eurozone experiences a slowdown in
November due to its services sector
Eurozone PMIs: Output
65
Expansion
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
30
Composite (M&S)
Manufacturing
Services
Construction
25
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13

5. Top performers within manufacturing include Denmark, US,
UK & NI. Underperformers include Australia, France & Spain
PMIs: Manufacturing Output November 2013
Denmark
US
UK
NI
Japan
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Switzerland
N.Zealand*
Canada
Austria
Poland
Turkey
Global
Taiwan
Germany
EU
S.Africa
Ireland
Italy
EZ
China
Vietnam
Mexico
India
Israel*
Singapore
Russia
Brazil
Greece
S.Korea
Indonesia
Spain
France
Australia
35
NI, UK & RoI
€
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices,
*Sep, for the US ISM is used.
40
45
50
55
60
65
70

6. N.Ireland, the UK & the Republic of Ireland post the
fastest rates of service sector output growth in November
PMIs: Services Output November 2013
NI
UK
Ireland
Germany
US*
Global
EU
China
Brazil
Emerging Markets
Japan
Russia
Spain
EZ
Australia
France
Italy
India
€
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *
US Non-manufacturing which is wider than
services
35
40
45
50
55
60
65

7. The 2nd & 3rd largest economies within the eurozone are
contracting again with the UK & RoI still outperforming
Composite PMIs
65
(Manufacturing & Services
** Excludes Construction**)
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
30
Mar-07
Jan-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Jul-10
May-11
Mar-12
Jan-13
Nov-13

8. The UK, US & EZ saw their composite PMIs slip in
November while China’s moved higher
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services
** Excludes Construction**)
65
Eurozone
US (ISM)
China
UK
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, US includes construction
35
May-08
Apr-09
Mar-10
Feb-11
Jan-12
Dec-12
Nov-13

9. The US, Japan & the Eurozone all posted an acceleration
in manufacturing activity in November
Manufacturing PMIs
65
US (ISM)
China
Japan
Eurozone
No Change
60
Expansion
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics
25
May-08
Apr-09
Mar-10
Feb-11
Jan-12
Dec-12
Nov-13

10. PMIs for Russia & Brazil slipped in November but
growth in Emerging Markets accelerates overall
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services
Brazil
Russia
India
** Excludes Construction**)
Emerging Markets
No Change
65
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics
30
Jun-07
May-08
Apr-09
Mar-10
Feb-11
Jan-12
Dec-12
Nov-13

11. Australia’s manufacturing sector joins its services
sector in contraction territory in November
Australia - PMI
65
Manufacturing
Services
No Change
60
Expansion
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
30
Mar-07
Jan-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Jul-10
May-11
Mar-12
Jan-13
Nov-13

12. UK & the RoI see growth rates ease in November while
NI posts its fastest rate of growth since March 2004
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**
65
NI
UK
RoI
Expansion
60
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI
50 = threshold between expansion / contraction
30
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

13. PMI suggests growth in DFP’s new private sector composite index
(combines indices for construction, services, agriculture & industrial production) in Q3 & Q4
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
PSO Q/Q%
5
4
NICEI Left Hand Scale
PMI Right Hand Scale
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI
Expansion
3
2
PMI
65
60
55
1
0
50
-1
45
-2
Contraction
-3
-4
-5
-6
Source: New DFP Northern Ireland Composite Economic
Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank / Markit Economics NI PMI,
* for PMI refers to average for October & November
40
35
30
2003 Q2 2004 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4*

14. NI firms report an acceleration in business activity &
new orders growth but pace of job creation slows
NI Private Sector Activity
Monthly
70
Business Activity
New Business
Employment
Expansion
65
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

15. Buoyant order books suggest more growth in the months
ahead. NI posts its fastest rate of growth since July 2004
Private Sector New Orders
Monthly
NI
UK
Orders increasing
65
RoI
60
55
50
Orders Contracting
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
30
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

16. Surge in demand is leading to backlogs of work with
NI index posting a record high in November
Private Sector Backlogs
3 month moving average
60
UK
RoI
Increasing
NI
55
50
Decreasing
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-03
Jul-05
Mar-07
Nov-08
Jul-10
Mar-12
Nov-13

17. NI firms post their 5th successive increase in export
orders in November
NI New Export Business
70
No Change
60
Expansion
New Export Orders
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
PMI
20
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

18. PMI underestimated QES job gains in 2012. PMI for Q3 signals fastest
rate of jobs growth since Q4 2007 with even stronger growth in Q4
PMI Index
NI Employment: PMI v QES**
Q/Q
60
1.0%
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the
number of jobs in NI & includes public sector
Job
gains
55
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
Discontinuity in QES Series
50
0.0%
-0.3%
45
-0.5%
Job
losses
40
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics,
PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between
expansion / contraction, * for PMI refers to average
for October & November
-1.0%
-1.3%
35
2003 Q4
-0.8%
-1.5%
2005 Q4
2007 Q4
PMI Employment Index
2009 Q4
No Change
2011 Q4
QES Q/Q
2013 Q4*

19. UK, RoI & NI firms all experienced jobs growth in
November albeit at a weaker rate than October
Private Sector Employment Levels
Monthly
60
UK
RoI
Job Gains
NI
55
50
Job Losses
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

20. Private sector’s profitability squeeze remains but
pricing power is on the rise
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze
3 Month Moving Average
Output Prices
Input Prices
No Change
80
Profits
squeeze
70
Inflation
60
50
30
Price of goods &
services rising
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
PMI
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13
Deflation
40

21. Regional
Comparisons

22. PMIs Indian summer continues with strong growth
everywhere & NI moving up the PMI league table…
Output / Business Activity
November 2013
PMI Index
70
50 = No change
65
60.5
60.2
55.6
55
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
45
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
40
SE EM Lon SW UK
NI
NW East WM NE Wal Y&H Scot
RoI

23. …all the UK regions post growth over the last 3 months
Output / Business Activity
3 months to November 2013
PMI Index
50 = No change
70
65
60.8
58.8
56.7
55
Contraction
50
45
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
40
Lon EM SE SW NW UK East NI WM Y&H Wal Scot NE
Expansion
60
RoI

24. … and over the last 12 months
Output / Business Activity
12 months to November 2013
PMI Index
50 = No change
60
55.7
53.8
52.5
Contraction
50
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
45
Lon
SE
NW Wal Y&H EM
UK
SW East Scot WM
Expansion
55
NI
NE
RoI

25. All the UK regions and the Republic of Ireland post
employment growth in November …
Employment Levels
November 2013
PMI Index
50 = No change
60
58
55.5
56
54.8
52
Increasing
54
51.2
Decreasing
50
48
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
46
Lon SW WM East SE
UK NW Scot EM Wal NE
NI Y&H
RoI

26. … and over the last 3 months to November
Employment Levels
3 months to November 2013
PMI Index
58
50 = No change
56
55.3
54.7
Increasing
54
51.9
52
Decreasing
50
48
46
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
44
Lon WM SW
SE
UK NW East Wal Scot
NI
EM Y&H NE
RoI

27. NI posts a marginal decline in employment with the West
Midlands & RoI the sharpest rise over the last 12 months
Employment Levels
PMI Index
12 months to November 2013
50 = No change
54
53.2
Increasing
52.1
52
50
49.9
Decreasing
48
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
46
WM SE East Lon SW
UK Scot Wal NW EM Y&H NE
NI
RoI

28. Sectoral
Comparisons

29. All 3 UK sectors maintain strong rates of growth in
November with services still close to its 16-year high
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
70
Services
Manufacturing
Construction
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics
20
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

30. UK economic growth accelerates in Q2, Q3 & Q4
PMI Index
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMI
UK Composite includes Construction
GDP Q/Q
65
1.5
60
1
55
0.5
50
0
45
-0.5
40
-1
35
-1.5
Source: ONS & Markit Economics, * refers to
October & November average
30
25
-2
-2.5
2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4*
GDP Q/Q
PMI
PMI No Change

31. The RoI’s manufacturing & service sectors experience
a slowdown in their growth rates in November
RoI Business Activity - PMIs
Monthly
65
Services
Construction
No Change
60
55
Expansion
Manufacturing
50
Contraction
45
40
35
30
25
Source: Markit Economics
20
Jun-07
May-08
Apr-09
Mar-10
Feb-11
Jan-12
Dec-12
Nov-13

32. All 3 broad sectors within NI saw their rates of
growth in output accelerate over the last 3 months
Northern Ireland Private Sector Output
3 month moving average
65
Manufacturing
Services
Construction
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

33. …with all sectors also reporting job gains over the last
3 months
NI PMI - Employment Index
3 month moving average
65
Manufacturing
Services
Construction
Job Gains
60
55
50
Job Losses
45
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

34. NI’s manufacturing sector posts an acceleration in orders,
employment & output growth over the last 3 months
NI Manufacturing Activity
3 month moving average
Business activity
New Orders
Employment
60
55
50
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Contraction accelerating
45
Growth accelerating
65
25
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

35. UK & NI manufacturing firms signal very strong rates
of growth in output during the last 3 months
Manufacturing Output
3 month moving average
65
UK
NI
RoI
No Change
Expansion
60
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

36. The UK posts the strongest rate of growth in new orders
Manufacturing New Orders
3 month moving average
65
UK
NI
RoI
No Change
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

37. N.Ireland is outperforming its European competitors
Manufacturing Output - PMI
70
RoI
Italy
Spain
Greece
NI
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
20
Mar-07
Jan-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Jul-10
May-11
Mar-12
Jan-13
Nov-13

38. Cost price inflation remains for local manufacturing firms
but pricing power is improving due to increased demand
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
No Change
Input Costs
Output Prices
80
Profits
squeeze
70
Inflation
60
50
Deflation
40
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

39. PMI underestimated manufacturing job surge in Q2.
But PMI suggests further job gains in Q3 & Q4 2013
PMI Index
65
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES**
Q/Q
4%
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment
Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
60
Job
gains
Discontinuity in
QES Series
3%
2%
55
1%
50
0%
45
-1%
Job
losses
40
35
-3%
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics,
PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between
expansion / contraction, * for PMI refers to
average for October & November
-4%
30
2003 Q4
-2%
-5%
2005 Q4
2007 Q4
PMI Employment Index
2009 Q4
2011 Q4
No Change
2013 Q4*
QES Q/Q

40. Recent growth in NI service sector output has fed
through into higher levels of employment…
NI Service Sector (excludes Retail)
3 month moving average
Business activity
65
New Orders
Growth accelerating
70
Employment
60
55
Contraction accelerating
50
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
30
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

41. All 3 economies post strong growth in services output
in November with NI activity accelerating…
Services Output (excluding Retail)
3 month moving average
70
UK
NI
RoI
No Change
65
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

42. … and an acceleration in new orders growth too
Services New Orders (excluding Retail )
3 month moving average
70
UK
NI
RoI
No Change
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

43. Output prices within service sector firms over the
last 3 months rise at their fastest rate in over 5 years
NI Services Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
No Change
Input Costs
Output Prices
80
Profits
squeeze
70
Inflation
60
50
Deflation
40
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
30
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

44. Employment growth is accelerating in the UK but NI
firms signal a slowdown in service sector jobs growth
Services Employment
3 month moving average
65
UK
RoI
NI
No Change
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13

45. In Q3 the services PMI shows quarterly jobs growth for
the 1st time since Q1 2008 with further growth in Q4
PMI Index
65
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES*
Q/Q
1.5%
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of
jobs in NI and includes the public sector
60
1.0%
Job
gains
Discontinuity in QES Series
55
0.5%
50
0.0%
45
-0.5%
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics,
PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between
expansion / contraction, * for PMI refers to
October & November average
Job losses
40
2003 Q4
-1.0%
2005 Q4
2007 Q4
PMI Employment Index
2009 Q4
No Change
2011 Q4
QES Q/Q
2013 Q4*

46. Retailers summer boom extends into November but
pace of growth has slowed
Northern Ireland Retail PMI
3 monthly average
75
Business Activity
New Orders
Backlogs
No Change
Expansion
65
55
Contraction
45
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

47. Local retailers maintain pricing power in November
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
90
Input Costs
Output Prices
No Change
80
Profits squeeze
Inflation
70
60
50
Deflation
40
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
30
Nov-04
May-06
Nov-07
May-09
Nov-10
May-12
Nov-13

48. NI construction sector reports growth in output, new
orders & employment over the last 3 months…
NI Construction PMI
3 month moving average
Output
New Orders
Employment
Expansion
60
50 = No change
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI
20
Mar-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Mar-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Mar-13
Nov-13

49. …and output prices have been rising
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze
3 month moving average
PMI Index
Input Prices
Output Prices
No Change
70
Inflation
60
50
Deflation
40
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank PMI
20
Mar-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Mar-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Mar-13
Nov-13

50. NI’s construction PMI posted its 1st quarter of jobs growth
in Q3 2013 since Q4 2007 with further growth in Q4
PMI Index
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES**
65
Q/Q
5.0%
**QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
60
Job
gains
55
Discontinuity in QES Series
50
2.5%
0.0%
45
-2.5%
40
35
30
25
-5.0%
Job losses
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics,
PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between
expansion / contraction, * for PMI refers to
average for October & November
-7.5%
20
2003 Q4
-10.0%
2005 Q4
2007 Q4
PMI Employment Index
2009 Q4
No Change
2011 Q4
2013 Q4*
QES Q/Q

51. Construction output accelerates in the UK, RoI and NI
over the last 3 months
Construction Sector Output - PMI
3 month moving average
PMI Index
NI
UK
RoI
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics
20
Mar-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Mar-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Mar-13
Nov-13

52. New orders growth accelerating in all 3 economies
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI
3 month moving average
PMI Index
UK
RoI
Expansion
NI
60
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics
20
Mar-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Mar-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Mar-13
Nov-13

53. Opportunities for NI firms within GB market. House
building growth hits a 10-year high…
UK Construction Activity - PMIs
3 month moving average
70
Housing Activity
Commercial Activity
Civil Engineering Activity
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics
20
Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13

54. …with opportunities returning within the RoI too
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI
3 month moving average
70
Housing Activity
Commercial Activity
Engineering Activity
Expansion
60
50 = No change
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
20
Mar-07
Jul-08
Nov-09
Mar-11
Jul-12
Nov-13

55. Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is
not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in
any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or
engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and
are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be
construed as such.
This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here
without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the
information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular
transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incur
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Calls may be recorded.
Slide 55