South Asia Weekly Trends for 13 May 2012 covers the trends in the region including probable estimates of the way ahead providing at a glance assessment of the events and trends in this region

1. SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY TRENDS
WEEK ENDING 13 MAY 2012
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2. Afghanistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Pre Chicago Conference • Chicago Conference – NATO
Deliberations. strategy formalisation – 20
• Debate on US Afghanistan – 21 May.
Strategic Agreement • Taliban attacks as part of
• Civilian Casualties in NATO Spring offensive
Operations.
• Green on Blue attacks
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3. Bangladesh
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• India Bangladesh Joint • Diffusion or expansion of
Commission First meeting. political tensions with spill
• External pressure on over of the latter in the
political parties for form of bandhs and street
reconciliation. side violence?
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4. Bhutan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Roll Back of restrictions on • Possible review of decision
import of vegetable and on restrictions on rupee
related food items from with likely spread over the
India long term.
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5. Maldives
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Indian support to Waheed • Political differences to
government remain contested.
• Indian political and
economic support to
government.
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6. Myanmar
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Second level reforms for • Aung Suu Kyi visit to Norway
grass roots transition and Britain.
announced by President. • Continued fighting in Kachin
• Mechanism for negotiations area
with ethnic group
structured.
• Suu Kyi issued passport.
• Fighting in Kachin areas
continues
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7. Nepal
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Deliberations by political • Vote on contentious issues
parties on constitution and in Constitution on 16 and 17
state structuring continues. May.
• Restructuring plan of Nepal • Possible spill over of
Army blocked by resentment of groups on
parliamentary committee. the streets in form of
bandhs and strikes.
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8. Pakistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Prime Minister Gilani’s post • Deliberations on US
SC verdict battle for Pakistan relations and
survival. opening of NATO supply
• Agitation by PML N and route. Likely decision by
other opposition parties for Defence Committee and
removal of Mr Gilani. reactions?
• US Pak relations – • Political confrontation on
deliberations on opening of PM Gilani’s continuance.
supply route. • Possible launch of
• Violence in tribal areas operations in North
continues. Waziristan by Pak Army.
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9. Sri Lanka
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Government accuses parties • Victory celebrations over
including opposition UNP LTTE defeat.
and Tamil alliance TNA of • Possible attempts by LTTE
encouraging LTTE sympathizers in North for
sympathizers. candle lighting to express
sympathy.
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10. India Foreign Policy
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Visit of US Secretary of State • US energy envoy to visit
Hillary Clinton firms up Indo Delhi for talks on reduction
US relations. of oil imports from Iran.,
• Pak attempt to pre empt • Series of Indo Pak talks.
engagement on Siachen
rejected.
• India likely to abandon
South China Sea oil block
due to lack of commercial
viability
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11. India Defence
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Defence Minister pitches for • Impetus on procurements
additional funds for to continue with deals on
procurement in parliamentary
debate over Demand for cusp of finalisation receiving
Grants for Ministry of Defence. priority.
• Major deals cleared by CCS –
Pilatus trainer, by DAC – 145 Lt
Hows.
• Leh Army unit mass
disobedience creates crisis.
• Vectra Corporation helicopter
operating license canceled.
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12. India Politics and Terrorism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Opening moves of a • Red Alert on terror threats
possible political third front in metros likely to continue
with meeting of two CMs in
Chennai.
• Foreign investors assured of
security of investments
particularly Telenor.
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13. Jammu and Kashmir
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• First infiltration encounter • Terror encounters likely but
as routes open up with will be away from the
melting of snow. tourist spots.
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14. North East
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• First encounter with Naxal • North East separatist and
group in Assam, 3 rebels Naxal menace combination
killed leads to alarm. may raise threat profile in
• 8 Ambassadors from EU Assam.
visit Nagaland.
• Encounter in Manipur 3
rebels killed.
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15. Left Wing Extremism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Orissa state government • Continued alert in central
faces flak from Centre for India, North East
poor response to meet the
Naxal threat.
• Mass surrender in Bihar.
• Hostage negotiation policy
likely.
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16. Note
• Trends are qualitative probabilistic
assessments based on news reports and may
undergo variation thus application has to be
based on assessments by individuals and
groups based on their operating environment.
• For subscriptions query email
rkbhonsle@gmail.com
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