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House price monitor.12.2011
1. Home Price Monitor
December 2011
National Association of REALTORS®
Research Division
Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
2. Highlights
• On a month-to-month basis home price declines in October were small
except among non-distressed existing homes where there were small price
gains and new homes, which saw larger monthly gains. On a year over year
basis, small declines were seen across measures in October within the range
that has been typical of recent months.
• NAR data show a monthly increase for November and suggest that the
decline from November one year ago may be smaller than in October.
• New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels of
construction and purchase activity.
• Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, continue to
comprise about 30 percent of sales—down from nearly 40 percent
earlier in the year. The seasonal slowdown may lead to an increase in
distressed sales as a share of total sales even as the number of distressed
sales remains largely constant early in 2012. The increase in the share of
distressed sales may bring reported transaction prices down somewhat.
3. Outlook
• Many of the same trends continue to dominate the outlook. Low inventories,
declining delinquency rates, and relatively stable buyer traffic should help to
support prices, though buyers searching for the right home may have fewer
options from which to choose. Very limited new construction means that
buyers initially searching for a new home may find more selection among
existing homes.
• Client pricing expectations may continue to present challenges. Data recently
released from the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that sellers
typically sold their homes for 95% of the listing price, and 61% reduced the
asking price at least once.
• Affordability remains high and job opening and hiring data are showing signs
of improvement. An improving economy coupled with affordability could
not only provide a needed jolt to primary residence sales, but may also spur
investment and vacation home purchases. New NAR data on these types of
sales will be out in the first quarter of 2012.
4. Home Prices
$280,000 280.00
$260,000 260.00
$240,000 240.00
$220,000 220.00
$200,000 200.00
$180,000 180.00
$160,000 160.00
$140,000 140.00
$120,000 120.00
$100,000 100.00
Jun-10
Dec-01
Dec-02
Mar-03
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-11
Mar-02
Mar-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
5. Home Price Data – Year over Year Change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Sep-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
6. Home Price Changes
Oct-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Next
Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Release
Data Series Change* Change* Change* Change* Date
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes -2.7% -5.7% 2.1% -3.5% 20-Jan
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes -2.6% -6.1% 1.9% -4.0% 20-Jan
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only -0.4% -2.7% -- -- 25-Jan
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -1.2% -3.4% -- -- 31-Jan
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -1.1% -3.0% -- -- 31-Jan
CoreLogic National HPI -1.3% -3.9% -- -- Mid-Jan
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.4% -0.5% -- -- Mid-Jan
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price 3.5% 9.0% -3.8% -2.5% 26-Jan
*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for
Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media
regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with
caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a
measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
7. Spread of Existing Home Price Changes
Year over Year
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
-20.00
-25.00
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
8. Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory
5,000,000 14.0
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at
EOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)
4,500,000
12.0
4,000,000
3,500,000 10.0
3,000,000
8.0
2,500,000
6.0
2,000,000 NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes,
United States (Months) (right axis)
1,500,000 4.0
1,000,000
2.0
500,000
0 0.0
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)
Sources: NAR
9. Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)
Sources: Census
10. Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)
Sources: BLS
12. Housing Affordability
25 250.0
20 NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite 200.0
(right axis)
NAR Payment as Percent of Income
(left axis)
15 150.0
10 100.0
5 50.0
0 0.0
NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States
Sources: NAR
13. About the Price Data Series
Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops
Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase &
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value;
quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 composites are 3 month moving averages
CoreLogic National HPI Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded recorder data
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
