Writing A Field Plan Part 1

Writing a Field Plan

April 23rd, 2008
Listen live on:
Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
AIM: DFA Night School Paid for by Democracy for America,
www.democracyforamerica.com, and not
authorized by any candidate or
candidate’s committee.

Welcome Back to Night School!
What’s New?
Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio:
Click here to listen:

New Look:

New DFA website coming soon!

2 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Tonight’s Trainers

Arshad Hasan Matt Blizek Helen Strain
DFA Executive Director DFA Training Director Field Organizer for
Night School Host Night School Host over 20 years


Field Planning in 2 Parts
This session: Next Month:
1. Setting Your Vote Goals 3. Voter Contact Tactics
- Win Number - Canvass
- Vote Goal - Phones
- Mail
2. Targeting Strategies - Etc
- Geographic 4. Timelines
- Voting History 5. Benchmarks
- Demographic
RSVP for Part 2 of this series:
www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2


Your Blueprint for Victory
Contains your campaign’s Goals and
the Strategies, Tactics, Timelines,
and Benchmarks to achieve them

Person to person voter contact
• Delivers a campaign’s message to
targeted voters
A strong Field
• Tactics: Canvass, phone calls, mail Organization can help
literature drops, etc. you gain between 3-5%
on election day.
Builds a grassroots volunteer base


What’s Your Win Number?
Step 1: Project the turnout:
Projected
= % Turnout in last x
similar election(s)
Current number of
registered voters
Turnout

Step 2: Set Your Goals
Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1
Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52

Step 3: Write them down!


Targeting Your Resources
Why target?
• Limited People, Money & Time
• Gets the right message to the right
voters

3 Ways to Target Voters
• Geographically Research Suggestions
• Voter History & Identiﬁcation • Secretary of State
• County Elections Board
• Constituencies • Party Voter File
• NCEC
• US Census data


Calculate Your Vote Goals
Region # 1 District Total
Current Registration: 1624 Current Registration: 5124
’04 Turnout %: 31% ’04 Turnout %: 46.3%
’08 Projected Turnout ____ ’08 Projected Turnout ____
Win Number ____ Win Number ____
Vote Goal (52%) ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____
Region # 2
Current Registration: 1603
’04 Turnout %: 55%
’08 Projected Turnout ____
Win Number ____ Formula Key
Vote Goal (52%) ____
Projected Turnout =
Region # 3
Current Registration: 1897 Current Registration x 04 Turnout %
’04 Turnout %: 52% Win Number =
’08 Projected Turnout ____
(Projected Turnout / 2) + 1
Win Number ____
Vote Goal (52%) ____ Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52


We need at least 1187 votes to win
Region # 1 District Total
Current Registration: 1624 Current Registration: 5124
’04 Turnout: 31% ’04 Turnout: 46.3%
’08 Projected Turnout 503 ’08 Projected Turnout 2371
Win Number 253 Win Number 1187
Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote Goal (52%) 1233
Region # 2
’04 Turnout: 55%
’08 Projected Turnout 882
Win Number 442
Vote Goal (52%) 458
Region # 3
’04 Turnout: 52%
’08 Projected Turnout 986
Win Number 494
Vote Goal (52%) 513


Democratic Performance Index
‘Percentage of the vote an average Dem can
expect in an average election’
– Based on voting history NOT voter registration

How to calculate D.P.I

{ }
Democratic % in similar election # 1
+ Democratic % in similar election # 2 / 3 = D.P.I.
+ Democratic % in similar election # 3

About NCEC


Find the Democrats!
Region # 1 District Totals
08 Projected Turnout: 503 08 Projected Turnout: 2371
Dem Performance Index: 69% Dem Performance Index: 46.1%
Projected Dem Turnout ____ Projected Dem Turnout ____
Vote difference ____ Vote difference ____
Region # 2
08 Projected Turnout: 882
Dem Performance Index: 31%
Projected Dem Turnout ____
Vote Goal (52%) 458
Vote difference ____ Formula Key
Region # 3
Projected Dem Turnout =
Dem Performance Index: 48% Turnout Projection x D.P.I.
Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Difference =
Vote Goal (52%) 513
Projected Dem Turnout – Vote Goal
Vote difference ____


Not enough Democrats to win
08 Projected Turnout: 503 08 Projected Turnout: 2371
Dem Performance Index: 69% Dem Performance Index: 46.1%
Projected Dem Turnout 347 Projected Dem Turnout 1094
Vote difference 85 Vote difference -139
Region # 2
Projected Dem Turnout 273
Vote Goal (52%) 458
Vote difference -185
Region # 3
Projected Dem Turnout 473
Vote Goal (52%) 513
Vote difference -39


How many persuadable voters
are out there?
Method # 1: Method # 2:
Look for the blowouts to Compare campaigns with
determine the Base Vote the same constituents

AKA ‘Yellow Dog’ Democrats Candidate % of vote in District
Dem Governor 57%
100% Dem State Senate 46%
- Democrat Base %
- Republican Base % 57% - 46% = 11% of the voters
are persuadable
Persuasion Index


Find the Persuadable Voters
’08 Projected Turnout : 503 ’08 Projected Turnout : 2371
Persuasion Index: 18% Persuasion Index: 16.2%
Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Projected Perusable Voters 384
Persuasion Share ____ Persuasion Share ___

Region # 2
’08 Projected Turnout : 882
Persuasion Index: 12%
Projected Persuadable Voters ____
Persuasion Share ____
Formula Key
Region # 3 Projected Persuadable Voters =
Turnout Projection x Persuasion %
Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share =
Persuasion Share ____ Regional Persuadable Voters / Total
Persuadable Voters


A Winnable District
’08 Projected Turnout : 503 ’08 Projected Turnout : 2371
Persuasion Index: 18% Persuasion Index: 16.2%
Projected Perusable Voters 91 Projected Perusable Voters 384
Persuasion Share 23.6% Persuasion Share 100%

Region # 2
Projected Perusable Voters 106
Persuasion Share 27.6%

Region # 3
Projected Perusable Voters 187
Persuasion Share 48.8%


Questions?
Email: nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Instant Message:
DFA Night School


Field Targeting Strategies
DEM BASE PRECINCTS
- D.P.I. = Greater than 65%
- Identiﬁcation, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV

REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS
- D.P.I. = less than 35%
- Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only

SWING PRECINCTS
- D.P.I. greater than 65%
- Identiﬁcation, Persuasion & GOTV


Targeting with Voter History
Voter Contact Priorities
Partisanship ID
A. Undecideds likely to Vote Strong Undecided Strong
(ID, Persuasion) Supporter (2, 3, 4) Opponent
(5)

Voting History
B. Supporters less likely to vote (1)

(ID, GOTV) Always
D
Vote (4x4) A F
C. Undecideds less likely to vote Base Persuasion
(ID, Persuasion, GOTV) Sometimes
D. Supporters likely to vote Vote C
(Base building) (2x4) B Persuasion F
(0x0) #2
Never Vote
(0x4) E E F


VAN Power
One big list of voters for
all Democrats

The VAN doesn’t ﬁx itself!

Contact your local county
Democratic Party or DNC
organizer for access


Targeting with Constituencies
Look at your candidate and message
Identify your supporters in the
community
Listen!
Build bases of support


Questions
Email
nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Instant Message
DFA Night School


Homework
1. Download the attached worksheet
Click Here to download

2. Calculate the Vote Goals in your area
3. Sign up for next month’s Night School
www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2


Learn more every Month
DFA Training Weekends
April 26-27 West Long Branch, NJ
May 3-4 Rochester, NY

May 28th 8:30pm ET May 10-11 Cincinnati, OH
May 31-June 1 Pittsburgh, PA
Writing a Field Plan
June 7-8 Lansing, MI
Part 2: Tactics, June 14-15 Kansas City, MO
Timelines, & June 21-22 Albuquerque, NM
Benchmarks July 12-13 Miami, FL
www.dfalink.com/ July 17-20 Austin, TX Netroots Nation
Fieldplan2 www.democracyforamerica.com/training


Thank you for joining us!
Need to catch up on earlier Night School presentations?
Order previous semesters on DVD (and help keep Night School free)
www.democracyforamerica.com/nightschooldvd

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www.democracyforamerica.com/trust


Writing A Field Plan Part 1

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