The document provides a summary of hiring and firing trends in key global employment markets based on a survey of over 2700 businesses. Some key findings include:
- Hiring activity is down slightly in the UK and Spain but more stable in Italy and Netherlands. Germany continues robust hiring.
- Eastern European countries like Hungary, Poland, and Bulgaria see decreased hiring compared to prior quarters while Romania and Croatia's hiring increased.
- Turkey's hiring remains relatively robust despite a slight decline while Russia sees volatility across sectors with construction and retail hardest hit.
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Winter 2008/2009 Global Snapshot Survey Hiring & Firing Trends
1. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––
Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’
The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’ is a quarterly survey of
UK (0)870 770 0020
+44
hiring (and firing) trends in some of the world’s most important
Belgium (0)2 719 04 85
+32
Brazil 62 8131 7723
+55 employment markets and in those likely to join this group over
+359 2 9523660
Bulgaria the coming decade. This second report in the series, covering
+86(10) 6410 8866
China the winter of 2008/09, is based upon material sourced from over
+385 1 4576 200
Croatia
2700 businesses in commerce, industry and the financial
Egypt 2 3337 4663
+20
services sector in 107 countries on four continents.
France (0) 143 49 52 21
+33
Germany 69 976 750
+49
+233 277 551 561
Ghana
Hungary 1 336 2414
+36
India (0)22 4010 8100
+91
Italy 02 80 60 601
+39
+352 276 26 701
Luxembourg
+356 27 377443
Malta
Netherlands (0) 20 751 6100
+31
+234 1 741 4783
Nigeria
Pakistan 92 21 4312155
+00
Philippines 2 479 1859
+63
Poland 22 58 36 800
+48
Romania 031 6201 025
+4
Russia (495) 935 8606
+7
Singapore 6622 5570
+65
South Africa 11 455 2744
+27
Spain 91 310 60 15
+34
Switzerland 41 (0)71912 4850
+00
Turkey 0212 244 08 41
+9
+971 4 397 4541
UAE We hope that you find it both interesting and useful.
Tony Goodwin
Chairman and CEO
Antal International
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com 1
INTRODUCTION
2. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––
Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
About Antal International
UK (0)870 770 0020
+44
Founded in 1993, Antal International is a management and
Belgium (0)2 719 04 85
+32
professional recruitment specialist with a particular focus on
Brazil 62 8131 7723
+55
the sourcing and retention of candidates at middle and senior
+359 2 9523660
Bulgaria
level. One of the first recruitment organisations to devote
+86(10) 6410 8866
China
+385 1 4576 200 substantial resources to emerging markets, the company now
Croatia
Egypt 2 3337 4663
+20 has 52 offices in 28 countries and works with many of the
France (0) 143 49 52 21
+33 world’s most successful and ambitious multi-nationals.
Germany 69 976 750
+49
+233 277 551 561
Ghana
Hungary 1 336 2414
+36
India (0)22 4010 8100
+91
Italy 02 80 60 601
+39
+352 276 26 701
Luxembourg
+356 27 377443
Malta
Netherlands (0) 20 751 6100
+31
+234 1 741 4783
Nigeria
Pakistan 92 21 4312155
+00
Philippines 2 479 1859
+63
Poland 22 58 36 800
+48
Romania 031 6201 025
+4
Methodology
Russia (495) 935 8606
+7
Singapore 6622 5570
+65
This edition of the Antal
South Africa 11 455 2744
+27
International ‘Global Snapshot’ is
Spain 91 310 60 15
+34
based upon survey forms and
Switzerland 41 (0)71912 4850
+00
telephone interviews completed
Turkey 0212 244 08 41
+9
+971 4 397 4541 by line and HR managers in 2762
UAE
companies, professional
partnerships and
financial institutions across 107 countries in the winter of
2008/09. In-depth information is provided on 23 key employment
markets.
Each respondent was asked whether they were currently hiring
or letting go professional/managerial staff and whether they
intended to over the coming quarter. All respondents were
guaranteed anonymity to encourage open and honest answers.
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com 2
ABOUT ANTAL
3. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––
Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
––––––– ––––––– –––– –––
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
Germany
Germany
Despite the fact that the global downturn has now hit Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
the
Reflectingeconomy, levels Germany has activity left relatively
the fact that of recruitment been are actually
German
Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
unscathed by thewere in crunch’, employers in the respondents
higher than they ‘credit the autumn with 81% of country are
recruiting heavily at managerial and professional level and Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
are
looking for managerial and professional staff as opposed to 57%
expecting that demand for suchsome will actually increase over
last quarter. However there are staff signs of uncertainty about
Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
the next quarter. of 2009 with only 64% of those questioned
early part
expecting to hire during this time.
Hiring plans are particularly positive in the country in the
Western Europe
key discipline of engineering
UK
Hiring activity in the UK is down slightly on the previous quarter
with 28% of respondents currently seeking staff at managerial
and professional level in contrast to 31% in the autumn.
Optimism about the future also seems to have been eroded with
Germany
only 18% expecting to hire over the next three months, down
from 48% last time. However, the effects of the general downturn
are by no means uniform. The market for senior sales and
marketing professionals, for example, appears to be particularly
active, perhaps due to a desire get the most out of this key
business function by recruiting and retaining high quality staff.
UK
UK
The survey helped to give credence to the perception that the
country is experiencing a downturn in economic activity and that
Netherlands into the demand for managerial and professional
this is feeding
Despite predictions that produce two key findingswill fall into
staff. However the poll did the Dutch economy which qualify
recession in 2009, it appears better placed to weather theappear
this generally gloomy picture. First, employers do storm
than manyoptimistic about Union partners. As a result current
relatively of its European the future and are consequently
and future to ramp up their remain plans as the year progresses.
expecting hiring intentions hiring relatively positive, particularly
Scotland
amongst smaller and medium-sized companies by noare taking
And secondly, the hiring and firing picture is that means a
advantage of Whilst the construction and property sectors high
uniform one. the downturn to seize market share and and
quality staff from their largerservices industry are suffering signs
certain parts of the financial counterparts. There are also a real
that businesses in the country are in the process areas suchout’
crisis of confidence, organisations in other of ‘clearing as
weaker members of theirare generally positive about across the
telecoms and technology management teams right hiring.
spectrum.
Netherlands
Spain
The well-publicised troubles of the Spanish economy are now
being reflected in the jobs market with current hiring intentions
dropping sharply from 63% in the autumn to 31% now and future
hiring plans down from 50% to 22%.
Spain
Italy
Hiring at managerial/professional level was looking considerably
Spain in the poll in the autumn of 2008, yet in the current
healthy
climate this has dropped from 73% to 51%. However, for Italy the
Although well over meant an increase in firing questioned are
downturn has not half of Spanish businesses since autumn Italy
currently in relative stability across the senior jobs marketplace. of
resulting hiring, the deteriorating economy and a slowing
growth in GDP seem set to bite into the managerial/professional
employment market next quarter unless the government can take
Switzerland
strong remedial action as a matter of urgency.
The figures reflect a relatively static market at present, but
suggest a more positive outlook for hiring and a drop in the
shedding of professional and managerial staff over the coming
Italy Switzerland
months.
Whilst Italy shares many economic and social characteristics with
Spain, the employment market for managers and professionals in
Malta
Current and appearshiring intentions more healthy one. positive
the country future to be a much in Malta remain 47% of
employers questioned believed that trends for business were
although there are a relatively high percentage of businesses on
the island29% that they were stable andand managerial that they
positive, intending to shed professional only 23% felt staff.
Malta
were negative.
www.antal.com
snapshot@antal.com Western Europe 3
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com 4
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
Western Europe
UK Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
Hiring activity in the UK is down slightly on the previous quarter
Sector Analysis Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
with 28% of respondents currently seeking staff at managerial
Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
and professional level in contrast to 31% in the autumn.
Optimism about the future also seems to have been eroded with Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
only 18% expecting to hire over the next three months, down
from 48% last time. However, the effects of the general downturn
are by no means uniform. The market for senior sales and
UK by Sector
marketing professionals, for example, appears to be particularly
active, perhaps due to a desire get the most out of this key
business function by recruiting and retaining high quality staff.
Energy,
Renewable,
Netherlands
Oil and Gas
Despite predictions that the Dutch economy will fall into
recession in 2009, it appears better placed to weather the storm
than many of its European Union partners. As a result current
and future hiring intentions remain relatively positive, particularly
Financial Services
amongst smaller and medium-sized companies that are taking
advantage of the downturn to seize market share and high
quality staff from their larger counterparts. There are also signs
that businesses in the country are in the process of ‘clearing out’
IT and Telecoms
weaker members of their management teams right across the
spectrum.
IT Contract
Sales and Marketing
The Netherlands by Sector
Accounting and finance
Sales & Marketing
IT and Technology
Energy
3
www.antal.com Western Europe 4
snapshot@antal.com
5. Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
Hungary Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
Hungary ran into major economic problems shortly after Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
the
publication of our last survey in the autumn, leading to an IMF-
Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
led rescue loan of over $25 billion. As a result of the turmoil
Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
hiring levels are down – from 74% to 45% - although 50% firmly
intend to hire over the next quarter in comparison to 59% in the
autumn.
Poland
Eastern Europe and Eurasia
Even Eastern Europe’s most successful economy has been hit
by the downturn with current hiring levels down from 93% in the
autumn to 60% now and the percentage of organisations
expecting to recruit in the coming quarter dropping from 63% to
54%. However the employment market is still relatively robust
and the general consensus is that the country will escape the
worst effects of the financial storm thanks to healthy domestic
Hungary
consumption, a strong banking sector and a well-balanced
economy less reliant on exports than many of its neighbours.
Bulgaria
Hiring levels in Bulgaria have dropped dramatically over the last Poland
quarter from 89% to 28% and intentions to recruit in the next
three months from 90% to 29%. However this is, to some extent
countered by an equally significant reduction in the shedding of
professional and managerial staff from 49% in the autumn to
only 4% now, whilst none of the businesses questioned
expressed an expectation that they would further reduce staffing Bulgaria
levels in the coming quarter.
Romania
In sharp contrast to most other countries featured in this report,
Romania is showing a significant increase in hiring levels – up
from 37% in the autumn to 54% now – although the current
Romania
employment drive may mean that these high levels drop over the
coming three months.
Croatia
Croatia is one of the few other countries to join Romania
experiencing an upsurge in recruitment with 58% of businesses
Croatia
currently hiring in comparison to 41% in the autumn. Many of the
employers questioned continued to complain about the shortage
of good professional and managerial staff, particularly in highly
technical areas such as IT and engineering, and of the spiralling
levels of pay expected by the best candidates.
Turkey
Turkey
Despite the fact that demand for qualified and able managers
and professionals is still exceeding supply hiring levels are
down, albeit slightly from 73% in the autumn to 60% this winter.
Overall, however, the employment market in Turkey remains
relatively buoyant. Russia
Russia
Russia is not in recession, but it has experienced some of the
effects of the economic downturn in other markets. Certain
disciplines and industry sectors have been affected and others
less so. Investment banking has been very volatile and there has
been a significant outflow of talent in this area with bleak
prospects for the intermediate future. Construction, being heavily
reliant on financing, has also seen significant problems relating
to the lack of credit, as have retail chains that have traditionally
financed aggressive regional expansion through debt. Large
western IT vendors are treating the market very cautiously,
however to take up the slack many medium and small
companies in the IT sector are actually expanding.
www.antal.com Eastern Europe 5
snapshot@antal.com
6. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––
Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
Eastern Europe and EurasiaCurrently hiring at managerial/professional level
Sector Analysis Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Poland by Sector
Accounting and Finance
Legal
Banking
Sales and Marketing
IT and Telecoms
Manufacturing
and Technology
FMCG
Pharmacy
OGE
HR
Russia by Sector
IT
Sales and Marketing
Banking and Finance
FMCG
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Eastern Europe 6
7. Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Latin America, Africa and the Middle East
Brazil
Brazil, the region's largest economy, has now pumped tens of
billions of dollars into shoring up its currency and once-booming
Brazil
housing and automotive sectors, while announcing an additional
$3.6 billion in tax cuts, along with $10 billion in credit for indebted
Brazilian firms. Hiring levels still remain very high but seem set to
drop during the first quarter of 2009.
Egypt
Egypt
The level of hiring remains high in Egypt with nearly three
quarters of organisations questioned in the process of taking on
new staff. 83% of businesses definitely intend to recruit over the
coming quarter.
UAE
UAE
Despite a slight dampening of the ‘boom’ conditions seen in
recent years across the Gulf, the area’s economy remains robust
and demand for professional and managerial staff is high. The
UAE in particular is still benefiting from the migration of
Nigeria
professional workers from the US and Western Europe seeking
refuge from actual or threatened downturns in their own
countries.
Nigeria
As is the case in many of the world’s emerging economies, high
South Africa
calibre professional and managerial staff are in short supply in
Nigeria and current hiring rates are consequently relatively high.
However businesses in the country share the general uncertainty
about the coming year and are particularly concerned about the
possible adverse effects of falling oil prices.
South Africa
Although certain sectors of the economy have already entered
recession and the government has responded by cutting interest
rates, there is still high demand for managers and professionals,
particularly in and around the main population centres such as
Cape Town and Johannesburg and in key sectors such as
FMCG and engineering. Current recruitment is consequently
healthy although South African businesses appear as hesitant as
others around the globe about the coming quarter.
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Africa & UAE 7
8. Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
South Africa Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
Sector Analysis Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
South Africa by Sector
Accountancy
Construction
Energy
Engineering
Financial Services
FMCG
IT and Technology
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Africa & UAE 8
9. Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Asia
India
After a period of extremely strong demand for qualified
managers and professionals across practically every sector we
are now seeing a degree of caution entering the hiring process. India
Intentions to recruit in the coming quarter are down since the last
report in the autumn of 2008.
Singapore
Worries about Singapore’s economy have fed into the
recruitment of professional and managerial staff with only 6% of
businesses firmly intending to hire in the coming quarter.
Singapore
Philippines
So far the employment market in the Philippines appears to be
relatively robust with current levels of hiring at professional and
managerial level at a high 70% and expected to rise to 76% over
the coming quarter. Firing levels are currently low although
organisations expect them to rise slightly during the early part of
2009.
Philippines
China
As confidence falters around the globe, even the world’s newest
economic superpower seems to have been affected. Hiring
levels are down noticeably from the extremely high levels seen in
the autumn 2008 survey, although they still remain relatively
buoyant in comparison to those in many other countries. The
global downturn obviously has a part to play in this, but so too
has the fact that China is still not producing enough of the right
China
type of graduate from its burgeoning university system. The
country is still struggling to train enough managers and
professionals with real understanding of the commercial world or
of key practical skills such as engineering or industrial
management.
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Asia 9
10. Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
China Currently hiring at managerial/professional level
Sector Analysis Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level
Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter
China by Sector
Automotive
Accountancy
Banking
Media
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com ASIA
Asia 10
11. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––
Winter 2008/2009
The Global Snapshot
A survey of hiring and firing
trends in key employment markets around the world
Conclusions
“….like a duck hit over the head.”
UK (0)870 770 0020
+44
Belgium (0)2 719 04 85
+32
The British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once remarked that a week is
Brazil 62 8131 7723
+55
a long time in politics.
+359 2 9523660
Bulgaria
+86(10) 6410 8866
China
And so is three months in the middle of a credit crisis.
+385 1 4576 200
Croatia
Egypt 2 3337 4663
+20 Despite all the doom and gloom in the media, when we undertook our
France (0) 143 49 52 21
+33 last survey of hiring and firing around the globe, most countries
Germany 69 976 750
+49
appeared confident about the future. Now that confidence has faltered,
+233 277 551 561
Ghana
but has it evaporated completely?
Hungary 1 336 2414
+36
India (0)22 4010 8100
+91 Let’s look at the good news. There is no denying that there has
Italy 02 80 60 601
+39 certainly been a slowdown in economies across the world and a
+352 276 26 701
Luxembourg consequent knock-on effect on jobs and career development
+356 27 377443
Malta prospects for professionals and managers at all levels. However this
Netherlands (0) 20 751 6100
+31
does not mean that recruitment has come to a complete stop by any
+234 1 741 4783
Nigeria
means. Overall the research found that well over half of all businesses
Pakistan 92 21 4312155
+00
questioned were currently hiring and 43% intended to hire in the
Philippines 2 479 1859
+63
coming quarter. The hiring of locals and returnees in preference to
Poland 22 58 36 800
+48
international staff in countries such as China, India and Russia has
Romania 031 6201 025
+4
really taken off, for example, as organisations look for best value from
Russia (495) 935 8606
+7
their hires. Rather than being a classic downturn, this one seems to be
Singapore 6622 5570
+65
developing a very specific nature, which hits certain countries and
South Africa 11 455 2744
+27
sectors extremely hard whilst leaving others relatively or even
Spain 91 310 60 15
+34
Switzerland 41 (0)71912 4850
+00 completely unscathed. The major problem we face is one of
Turkey 0212 244 08 41
+9 uncertainty. To borrow another quote from the past – this time from
+971 4 397 4541
UAE Abraham Lincoln commenting on one of his generals – it seems that a
large part of the global business community is currently “confused and
stunned, like a duck hit over the head” with obvious consequences for
the professional and managerial jobs market.
Contact Us This year, perhaps even the next couple of years in global jobs
markets will certainly be quieter than the preceding ones – the boom is
If you would like any further information on hold, at least for now. What organisations and individuals need to
about material included in this report or do now is to accept that a downturn is here and overcome it. That
would like to reserve a copy of the next means acknowledging that pay will not keep rising all the time, that
‘Global Snapshot’, contact Sarah Jones at desirable jobs will be more difficult to get and that the workplace will be
snapshot@antal.com or your local Antal harder, more competitive and more unforgiving than it has been for
office – see www.antal.com for more some time. Once this happens the panic will stop and organisations
details. and individuals alike will get on with getting back to basics - focusing
on their clients and customers, delivering good products and good
service and starting us out on the path to economic recovery.
snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Contact Us 11