The document provides a technical analysis of the QSE Index and key Qatari stocks. It finds that in the short-term, the QSE Index and stocks like Milaha, Al Rayan Islamic Index, Industries Qatar, and Barwa Real Estate Co. are in an upmove mode and expected to continue rising. Other stocks like Medicare Group are expected to bounce back from recent declines. The analysis provides short and long-term price targets and support and resistance levels for the indexes and stocks.
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1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QSE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QSE Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QSE Index gained for the second straight session and rose
around 102 points (0.75%) to settle near the 13,700.0 mark. After a
cautious start, the index built on its bullish momentum and moved
above the 13,600.0 and 13,650.0 levels on the back of sustained
buying interest. With the RSI in the buy mode, we believe the index
will clear the 55-day moving average and proceed further toward
13,750.0. Conversely, the index may find support at 13,650.0.
Milaha: Short-Term – Upmove
QNNS eventually cleared the stiff resistance of QR100.10 and made
further headway after failing in the past few attempts. Notably,
volumes were also large on the rise, which is a positive sign. We
believe based on the current higher push the stock has enough steam
to surpass QR102.0, targeting QR104.0. However, any retreat below
QR101.0 may halt its upmove. Meanwhile, both the momentum
indicators are providing bullish signals.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QERI Index ended the session in the green and moved higher
around 43 points (0.94%). The index remained in an upbeat mode
and gained from strength to strength. Traders should now watch out
for a test of 4,585.0, above which it may spark additional buying
interest, pushing the index further toward 4,639.0. Meanwhile, the RSI
is moving up, indicating the strength to continue. On the flip side,
4,550.0 and 4,529.0 may provide immediate support.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove
IQCD built on its gains and surpassed the key resistance of
QR194.60. The stock has been moving in the ascending channel
over the past few days and is in an upmove mode. With both the
momentum indicators pointing higher, IQCD’s preferred direction
seems to be on the upside. We believe the stock may continue to
advance further and test QR197.70. However, traders may need to
exercise caution if the stock slips below the QR194.60 level.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upswing
BRES surged 7.56% to breach its resistances of QR45.60, QR46.50
and QR47.30, tagging a 52-week high. The stock has been
registering strong gains over the past few days and is moving along
the ascending trendline. With volumes picking up on the rise and both
the momentum indicators in an uptrend mode, we believe BRES may
continue its rally further and test QR50.20. However, the stock may
halt its upmove if it slips below the QR47.30 level.
Medicare Group: Short-Term – Bounce Back
MCGS rebounded and gained 1.52%, clearing the important
resistances of the 21-day moving average and QR126.50 in a single
swoop. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu
candlestick formation on daily charts, indicating a likely continuation of
this bounce back. We believe the stock may extend its gains and test
QR128.80. However, any retreat below QR126.50 may pull the stock
down. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Stock Exchange;
QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute
legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any
representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may
also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QSE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Stock Exchange Index (QSE Index) 13,692.12 UP FLAT 13,650.00 13,584.34 13,753.36 13,847.11 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,573.01 UP DOWN 4,550.00 4,528.58 4,584.50 4,638.81 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
50.30
DOWN
DOWN
49.60
48.50
50.40
51.80 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 73.90 UP UP 73.40 72.50 74.30 75.00
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
59.40
UP
DOWN
59.20
58.70
59.90
60.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 109.90 DOWN DOWN 107.00 104.50 110.00 111.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
85.40
DOWN
DOWN
84.90
84.00
86.10
87.30 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 97.00 DOWN DOWN 97.00 94.50 98.00 99.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)*
126.90
UP
DOWN
126.50
124.75
128.80
131.00 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
196.80
UP
UP
194.60
193.50
197.70
199.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 186.00 FLAT DOWN 186.00 184.00 188.00 190.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
127.10
UP
UP
127.00
125.50
128.30
129.80 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 48.30 DOWN DOWN 47.70 46.90 48.90 49.75 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
48.40
UP
UP
47.30
46.50
50.20
51.51 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.55 DOWN DOWN 25.55 25.10 25.70 26.10
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
19.28
FLAT
DOWN
18.97
18.55
19.36
19.50 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 23.50 UP DOWN 23.35 23.00 23.89 24.12 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
120.00
DOWN
DOWN
117.70
115.87
120.50
121.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.20 DOWN DOWN 18.75 18.20 19.29 19.72 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
24.30
UP
FLAT
24.12
23.90
24.45
24.61 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 101.80 UP UP 101.00 100.10 102.00 104.00