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2013 Outlook for the
Retail and Consumer
Products Sector in Asia
Carrie Yu
                                                                               China & Asia Pacific
                                                                      Retail and Consumer Leader
                                                                                              PwC




Foreword
Impacted by the global economic           As the largest market in Asia, China         making a comeback, and still more
conditions, growth in many Asian          remains crucial for many retail and          that have turned around successfully
markets has slowed down. However,         consumer companies. The Chinese              through transforming the operating
the region as a whole remains ahead of    government has reiterated its emphasis       models and product offerings. In an
North America and Europe. Retail          in boosting domestic consumption,            evolving and dynamic market
sales volume in Asia Pacific is           relative to fixed investments and            environment, the strong survivors are
forecasted to grow 6% in 2013 and will    export, as the key economic driver of        often those who stand firm on their
maintain this upward momentum             growth. While the pace of growth may         corporate mission, backed by solid
through to 2016 with an estimated         have slowed, the retail industry is          infrastructure fundamentals and
market worth of US$11.8 trillion,         forecasted to grow at 10.5% in 2013          equipped with razor sharp focus to
while that of North America and           and 10.4% through to 2016. At the            constantly reinvent themselves to
Western Europe is US$4.4 trillion and     same time, India, with its huge young        create value to stakeholders.
US$3.1 trillion respectively. Home to     population and growing income of the
China and India, Asia continues to be     middle class, will continue to attract       Indeed, we have witnessed numerous
the main driver of retail growth          the attention of international and           innovations and success stories of
globally and holds out the best           regional players. This is particular so      many local and international
opportunity for growth and profits for    with the recent relaxation of the limits     companies in the industry. In this
many international retail and             on foreign investments in Delhi to           connection, I am personally inspired
consumer companies.                       allow 51% foreign equity in multi-           by the interviews featured in this
                                          branded retail operation. India’s retail     report and hope our readers will find
The growing critical mass of              growth is forecasted to bounce back          the same inspiration. We are honoured
consumers in Asia warrants long-term      strongly from 1.9% last year to 6% in        to have some of the region’s most
investments and tailored market           2013.                                        successful companies in generously
strategies. Indeed, by 2020, the                                                       sharing their core values and ethics,
percentage of the population              However, Asia’s consumer markets are         business visions and consumer
considered as middle class is envisaged   not completely liberalised and remain        insights. I am deeply grateful to Mr
to shift from North America and           highly fragmented. Traditional               Motoya Okada of Aeon, Mr John Lo of
Europe to the Asia Pacific region. This   retailing still dominates and local          Tencent, Mr A. Mahendran of Godrej
shift may happen even earlier, as         players are abound. Apart from the           and Mr Nigel Luk of Cartier for sharing
China’s leadership has committed in       challenges in navigating through             their wisdom. I would also like to take
the recent 18th National Congress of      regulatory hurdles as well as adapting       this opportunity to thank our
the Communist Party of China, to          to cultural differences and consumer         colleagues in the region and the
double the country’s 2010 GDP and per     preferences, retail and consumer             Economist Intelligence Unit for their
capita income of both urban and rural     companies also have to cope with the         invaluable input and assistance.
households by 2020. The expanding         influx of new competitors to the
middle class consumers will be a          market, whether online or offline. Over      Sincerely,
substantial force in driving demands      the years, some international retail
for a wide spectrum of products,          and consumer companies might have
ranging from functional food, personal    exited from certain markets in the
care products to the latest smartphone    region, but there are also others
models. The same phenomenon is also
happening across many Asian
countries including India, Indonesia                                                   January 2013
and Vietnam.
                                                                  2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia   1
This report was written in cooperation with the Economist Intelligence Unit’s industry and management research division.
The economic and industry forecasts included are those of the Economist Intelligence Unit. Due to a change in methodology
some historical figures may be significantly different to those published in last year’s report.
Table of contents

          4	    Executive summary

          6	Introduction

          	     Section 1: Retail
          10	 Food and general retail
          11		 Hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores
          12			 — Q&A with Motoya Okada of Aeon
          13		 Food, beverages and tobacco
          14		 Private label
          15	   Fashion and apparel
          18	 Online retailing
          20			 — Q&A with John Lo of Tencent

          	     Section 2: Consumer goods
          23	 Fast-moving consumer goods
          25			 — Q&A with A. Mahendran of Godrej
          28	 Luxury brands
          31			 — Q&A with Nigel Luk of Cartier
          33	   Durable consumer goods and electronics

          37	 At a glance: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, 		
          	   South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam

          50	Conclusion




                            2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia   3
Executive Summary
    The outlook for the global economy
    remains uncertain, as consumers and
    businesses alike wait for clear
    directions on a range of economic
    risks, from the US deficit to the euro
    zone crisis. The European Union (EU)
    is forecast to contract in 2012 and to
    muster only marginal growth in 2013.
    Growth in the US and China is also
    slowing. Although governments in
    both countries have introduced
    stimulus measures, any upturn is
    expected to be modest. Asia’s other
    economies will slow as well, but will
    look healthy by comparison with the
    US and EU, with regional growth
    (excluding Japan) averaging 5.7% in
    2012 and 6.4% in 2013.
                                                 This report discusses the outlook for               September 2012 that it would permit
                                                 six retail and consumer products                    foreign direct investment of up to 51%
    Asia will remain the main driver of          sub-sectors in Asia — food and general              in multi-brand retailing. Retailers,
    global retail sales growth, but              retail, fashion and apparel, online                 particularly in China, are beginning to
    companies will be challenged by              retailing, fast-moving consumer goods               target customers more carefully. For
    slowing economies and high inflation         (FMCG), luxury brands, and durable                  example, CR Vanguard is launching a
    and interest rates. Retail sales are still   consumer goods and electronics. It                  new high-end chain of boutique
    expected to expand by a respectable          focuses, in particular, on China, Hong              supermarkets, while Carrefour is
    5.8% in 2012# and 6% in 2013,                Kong, India, Japan and Taiwan, and                  stepping up its strategy to cater for
    although this is down substantially          looks at how the industry is faring in              consumers concerned about China’s
    from 9.6% volume growth in 2010.             2012 and is expected to grow through                frequent food safety problems by
    Companies are responding by                  2016, and the opportunities and                     focusing on organic food.
    reworking their product, production          challenges in the years ahead.
    and regional strategies.
                                                                                                     As Asia’s current environment of
                                                 The main findings of the report are as              high inflation and rising prices
    All eyes will continue to focus on           follows:                                            drives customers to seek value,
    Mainland China (China), by far Asia’s                                                            private food labels have new
    largest retail market. For many, the                                                             opportunities to increase their
                                                 Major international retailers will
    fastest growth will come in the less                                                             share. While the private label business
                                                 continue to expand in Asia, with
    developed third- and fourth-tier cities,                                                         took decades to develop in Western
                                                 more tailored strategies being
    as disposable incomes there rise                                                                 countries and came about only after
                                                 introduced in China. By 2016 China
    rapidly. The proportion of Chinese                                                               the retail sector matured, the concept
                                                 will overtake the US as the world’s
    households earning over US$15,000                                                                is rapidly catching on in Asia, where
                                                 largest retail sales market, worth some
    per year will increase from roughly                                                              large populations and growing
                                                 US$4.2 trillion. India, too, is now
    11% of the total in 2011 to 41% in                                                               incomes mean that the region will
                                                 attracting considerable interest, after
    2016, by conservative estimates.                                                                 remain the world’s largest food market,
                                                 its government announced in




                                                 # This figure is expected to be revised downward based on new forecasts for India, which became
4     PwC                                          available just prior to publication of this report.
Executive Summary




worth US$4.2 trillion in 2012. India’s      including both Asian retail companies        Chinese and other Asian travellers
big retailers have been very active in      and foreign offline retailers such as        abroad. But local, home-grown luxury
introducing private label products,         America’s Macy’s department stores,          brands will also emerge, catering to
which now account for 20-25% of             are now expanding their own online           Asian consumers’ rediscovery of their
profits for most. In addition to catering   presence in Asia in partnership with         own long-standing traditions of local
for the needs of value-conscious            e-tailers. The online market’s growth        craftsmanship. For example, Chow Tai
consumers, private label goods can          in 2012-16 will be aided by increased        Fook Jewellery Group of Hong Kong is
also fill a void in markets such as India   broadband and mobile-phone                   already twice the size of iconic
where many categories of goods are          penetration, the spread of smartphones       American jeweller Tiffany & Co in
underdeveloped. To overcome                 and tablet computers, and                    terms of revenue. As local brands seek
consumers’ concerns about the quality       improvements in payments and                 international capital and expertise,
and safety of private labels, retailers     logistics infrastructure.                    and global luxury brands remain keen
are upgrading packaging and                                                              to appeal to local tastes, partnerships
promoting their international backing       Rising incomes will continue to              between global and local brands, such
where possible.                             drive growth in the FMCG sector but          as Richemont’s controlling stake in
                                            companies will have to contend with          Hong Kong-based fashion label
Asian demand for fashion and                several challenges, including                Shanghai Tang, will become more
apparel will continue to lead the           increasingly demanding, value-               common.
world, and international fast               conscious consumers and cut-throat
fashion brands are expanding                competition. Consumer spending is            Growth in demand for consumer
aggressively to cash in on Asia’s           being hit by high inflation, rising          durables and electronics is slowing
young demographic and rising                interest rates and price hikes by FMCG       but will remain strong. However,
affluence. Asian demand for fashion         companies in response to costlier            Japanese manufacturers are losing
and apparel will continue to surpass        inputs and commodities. Tough                their decades-long dominance in
that in Western Europe and North            economic times are intensifying              Asia in these sectors. Market demand
America and the gap will widen in the       existing challenges for foreign              for electrical appliances and
coming years. This has attracted the        companies. For example, in December          housewares will increase 5.9% in Asia
interest of many foreign brands,            2011, Switzerland’s Nestlé and France’s      in 2012, lower than an earlier forecast
particularly in the area of fast fashion,   Danone revisited their China business        of 6.6%. However, growth will recover
which targets young, upwardly mobile        models in the face of fierce local           to 6.8% in 2013 and expand
customers. Newcomers to the Asia            competition. In response to all these        consistently through the forecast
market in 2012 included Topshop of          challenges, FMCG companies are               period to 2016. Strong growth is
the UK and US retailer Forever 21, who      planning their expansions more               encouraging competition and Japanese
join Spain’s Inditex, owner of the Zara     judiciously, partnering with local           manufacturers, hurt by the global
brand, Uniqlo of Japan and H&M of           companies, and better targeting              economic crisis, a strong yen and
Sweden, all of which have been rapidly      customer groups. Many are putting            natural disasters in Japan and
expanding in recent years, notably in       renewed emphasis on expansion in             Thailand, are rapidly losing their
China.                                      rural areas and smaller cities. They are     dominance. As they struggle,
                                            also looking to acquisitions to buy          companies such as South Korea’s
Online retailing continues to grow          market share.                                Samsung, China’s Haier and Taiwan’s
rapidly in Asia, prompting                                                               Hon Hai, have swooped in to capture
traditional and foreign offline             Asian consumers now account for              market share by expanding quickly and
retailers and even luxury brands to         over half of global luxury sales, and        offering lower prices, a wider range
embrace online sales in the region.         the boom is spurring the growth of           and adequate technology in an
According to industry intelligence          local luxury brands. According to the        increasingly commoditised market.
provider eMarketer, from 2013               World Luxury Association, China is set
onwards Asia will lead the world in         to replace Japan as the most important
global business-to-consumer (B2C)           market for luxury in Asia. Global
e-commerce sales, with a 41.4% share        brands will continue to increase their
by 2016. Traditional retailers,             presence and efforts to cater for




                                                                    2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia   5
9.8%, on the back of companies


    Introduction
                                                                                           widening their reach, the
                                                                                           modernisation of the retail industry
                                                                                           and the influx of new consumers.
                                                                                           China will overtake the US as the
                                                                                           world’s largest retail sales market in
                                                                                           2016, when its retail sales are forecast
                                                                                           to be worth US$4.2 trillion. Growth
                                                                                           will remain high through the rest of
                                                                                           the forecast period. The fastest growth
    The outlook for the global economy          9.6% volume growth in 2010 they are        will come in the less developed
    remains uncertain at best. The EU           still expected to expand by a              third- and fourth-tier cities, as
    economy is forecast to contract in 2012     respectable 5.8% in 2012. Next year        disposable incomes there rise rapidly.
    and to manage only marginally               that should accelerate to 6%, with the     The proportion of Chinese households
    positive growth in 2013. Growth in the      upturn lasting through the forecast        earning over US$15,000 per year will
    US and China is also slowing. While         period to 2016, when the market will       increase from roughly 11% of the total
    policymakers continue to work on            be worth US$11.8 trillion.                 in 2011 to 41% in 2016, by conservative
    action plans, the circumstances are                                                    estimates1.
    such that they are likely to accomplish     All eyes are on prospects for China, by
    little more than to prevent a deeper        far Asia’s largest retail market. While    In Japan, Asia’s second-biggest market
    economic downturn. Asia’s economies         the economy has been slowing, the          after China in dollar terms, retail sales
    will slow as well, but will still look      Chinese government has made clear          will expand by a modest 1.6% in 2012
    healthy by comparison, with regional        that it will intervene to stimulate        and contract slightly for two years
    growth (excluding Japan) averaging          growth if necessary. China’s GDP is        thereafter as Japan’s trade-dependent
    5.7% in 2012 and picking up to 6.4% in      predicted to grow 7.8% in 2012 and at      economy continues to suffer against a
    2013.                                       around 8% through the rest of the          backdrop of weak external demand
                                                forecast period. Despite high inflation    and a strong currency. Domestic
    Asia will remain the main growth            and prices, China’s retail sales will      demand is expected to remain weak,
    driver of retail sales globally. Although   grow at a still impressive 10.9% in        given poor economic growth and an
    retail sales have slowed from their         2012, higher than an earlier forecast of   uncertain employment market. Retail




6     PwC
Introduction




sales growth will remain negligible        Figure 1: Real GDP growth (% change)
through the forecast period, partly
                                           Region                                  2009     2010    2011     2012    2013    2014    2015    2016
because unemployment will remain
                                           Asia and Australasia (incl Japan)         1.2      7.1    4.0       4.2    4.2     4.5     4.3     4.3
relatively high and wage growth
                                           Economies in transition*                 -5.6     3.4     3.8       2.5    3.0     3.7      3.7    3.9
subdued at best. Nevertheless,
                                           Latin America                            -1.9     6.0     4.3       3.1    3.9     4.2     4.0      4.1
relatively high incomes and strong         Middle East and North Africa              1.7     5.2     3.4       3.4    3.9     4.7     4.9     5.3
demand for high-end goods will keep        North America                            -3.4     3.0     1.8       2.1     1.8     2.1    2.2     2.3
Japan’s retail spending among Asia’s       Western Europe                           -4.2     2.2      1.7     -0.2    0.5      1.3     1.4     1.4
highest2.                                  World                                    -2.3     4.2     2.7       2.2    2.4     2.9     2.9     3.0
                                           Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
India’s economy has started to look        *Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine
sluggish, and GDP growth will slow to
5.8% in 2012, while consumer price
inflation remains a high 9.3%. Given       Figure 2: Global retail sales growth by volume (% pa)
the uncertain economic outlook and
rising prices, retail sales growth will    Region                                  2009     2010    2011     2012    2013    2014    2015    2016
slow substantially to 1.9% in 2012,        Asia and Australasia                      5.3     9.6      5.2      5.8    6.0     6.9      6.7    6.8
                                           Economies in transition                  -4.4     3.9      6.6      3.4    3.6     4.0     4.4     4.5
much lower than an earlier forecast of
                                           Latin America                             0.1      3.1     5.2      4.9    4.6     5.4      4.7    5.3
5.3%, although demand growth for
                                           Middle East and North Africa              1.6     3.6      2.7      1.0    3.4     3.7     4.0      4.1
more basic items like food and soaps
                                           North America                            -5.8     0.8      3.8      1.6     1.5    2.0      1.9     1.8
and cleansers will remain strong. India
                                           Western Europe                           -2.5     0.2     -1.0     -1.3    0.0     0.3      0.7    0.8
is Asia’s third-largest retail market      World                                    -0.6     4.2      3.6      2.9    3.4      4.1     4.1    4.2
after China and Japan, although it has
one of Asia’s lowest sales per head        Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

ratios. Retail sales growth will bounce
back to 6% in 2013 as GDP growth           Figure 3: Global retail sales (in US$ trillion)
picks up and inflation abates
                                           Region                                  2009     2010    2011     2012    2013    2014 2015       2016
somewhat, with growth hovering
                                           Asia and Australasia                     4.93    5.88    6.81      7.43   8.23    9.24 10.43      11.81
between 5% and 6% for the remainder
                                           Western Europe                           2.89    2.85    3.05      2.91   2.94     2.97 3.00       3.14
of the forecast period, driven by
                                           North America                            3.25    3.36    3.61      3.74   3.89    4.06 4.23        4.41
income growth, increasing
                                           Latin America                            1.02     1.17   1.29      1.37    1.49    1.63 1.75       1.89
urbanisation, and a rising number of
                                           Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
attractive stores and foreign brands.
The increase in the number of wealthy
households from an estimated 494,000
with annual earnings over US$50,000
                                           Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates.
in 2012 to 2.4 million in 2016 will
drive demand for non-essential and
luxury goods3. Delhi has once again
announced a relaxation of the limits on
foreign investment in its retail sector,
saying it will allow 51% foreign equity
in multi-brand retail operations.
Foreign retailers have expressed keen
interest, but there is still strong
opposition to the move from some
quarters.




                                                                          2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia           7
Introduction




    Figure 4: Asia retail sales growth by volume (% pa)

    Territory               2009       2010       2011       2012      2013          2014    2015      2016    In Hong Kong, retail sales volumes will
    Australia                 3.29      2.15       0.10       0.70      1.10          1.30    1.70      2.00   grow 2.7% in 2012 as economic
    China                   16.82      19.07     10.90      10.90      10.50        11.10    10.20     10.00   growth in the territory dips to 1.5% on
    Hong Kong                 0.01     15.61     18.50        2.70      1.50         3.40     4.50      4.50   the back of a slowing global economy
    India                   -0.37       8.95       3.10       1.90      6.00         5.60     5.90      6.10   and China’s reduced growth rate.
    Indonesia                 3.47      4.78      5.20       4.60       5.50          6.70    6.60      6.50   Retail sales volume growth will slow to
    Japan                   -0.93       3.30     -0.60        1.60     -0.10        -0.50     0.30      0.40
                                                                                                               1.5% in 2013 as unemployment rises.
    Malaysia                  0.62      5.83      6.70       4.90       5.70         5.00     4.90      4.80
                                                                                                               Nevertheless, relatively strong
    New Zealand               0.50      2.50     -0.40      -1.20       2.30         2.30     3.20      3.30
                                                                                                               economic growth (which is expected to
    Philippines               3.98      5.56      1.80       2.90       4.90         5.00     5.20      5.20
                                                                                                               return to 4.2% in 2014 based on a
    Singapore               -0.58       6.70      1.30        1.70      2.70         3.80     4.60      5.30
    South Korea             -0.31       4.55      1.90        1.00      2.10         2.20     2.80      2.90
                                                                                                               recovery in global trade) and rising
    Taiwan                   -1.42      9.10      5.00       0.20       1.80         2.60     3.00      2.70   local incomes will provide impetus to
    Thailand                -0.54       6.70      1.50        7.80      6.90         5.30     4.80      4.70   retail sales in Hong Kong over the
    Vietnam                   3.05      4.73      6.30       8.30      11.10        10.30     8.70      6.40   medium term. Though visitor numbers
                                                                                                               from mainland China have increased,
    Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
                                                                                                               growth in sales of luxury products such
                                                                                                               as jewellery, watches and clocks and
    Figure 5: Retail sales in Asia (in US$ billion)
                                                                                                               valuables has slowed, indicating that
                                                                                                               while the uncertain global economic
    4,500                                                                                                      outlook has not dissuaded tourists
                                                                                                               from visiting Hong Kong, it has made
    4,000                                                                                                      them more cautious about spending.
                                                                                                               Given the relatively high cost of
    3,500                                                                                                      inflation, retailers’ profitability will
                                                                                                               depend partly on their ability to pass
    3,000                                                                                                      on rising costs to customers, hence
                                                                                              China            ensuring that they are able to develop
    2,500
                                                                                              Hong Kong
                                                                                                               premium brands for which higher
    2,000
                                                                                                               prices can be charged4.
                                                                                              India

    1,500                                                                                     Japan            Taiwan’s retail sales will increase by
                                                                                              Taiwan
                                                                                                               only 0.2% in 2012, as its export-
    1,000                                                                                                      oriented economy slows on weakening
                                                                                                               global demand. However, as growth in
       500                                                                                                     the wider economy picks up, retail
                                                                                                               volume growth is likely to recover to
         0
              2009     2010     2011      2012     2013     2014     2015      2016
                                                                                                               1.8% in 2013 and to rise to between
                                                                                                               2% and 3% for the remainder of the
    Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
                                                                                                               forecast period. With a population of
                                                                                                               just over 23 million, Taiwan is a
                                                                                                               smaller market than most in East Asia.
    Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates.
                                                                                                               However, at over US$10,000, annual
                                                                                                               disposable income per head is
                                                                                                               relatively high, and over 50% of
                                                                                                               households have an annual income
                                                                                                               over US$25,000 (this will rise to a
                                                                                                               forecast 65% by 2016). Retail sales will
                                                                                                               also be supported by more visitors
                                                                                                               from China, as visa and travel
                                                                                                               restrictions continue to be eased5.




8      PwC
Section 1: Retail
The future of global retail lies firmly in Asia, but economic growth in the region is
slowing and inflation and interest rates are high. Companies are responding by
reworking their product, production and regional strategies and looking for
acquisitions, while continuing with their organic expansion. China remains the main
focus for foreign companies across all categories. As international companies try to
make inroads into Asian markets, they will face stiff competition from well-
established local brands. Countries across Asia are quickly expanding access to
broadband and mobile phones. This is helping online retailing in Asia to expand
quickly and traditional retailers are exploring the online channel.




                        2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia   9
Section 1: Retail




     Food and
     general retail                                                                                            Key findings
                                                                                                               •	Major international retailers
                                                                                                                 continue to expand in Asia,
                                                                                                                 although sluggish home markets
                                                                                                                 mean that some are finding
     Figure 6: Retail sales of food in Asia and Australasia (in US$ billion)                                     investment resources
                                                                                                                 constrained.
     8,000                                                                                                     •	Recognising customer preferences
                                                                                                                 for online shopping, traditional
     7,000                                                                                                       retailers are making the move
                                                                                                                 online. According to market
     6,000                                                                                                       researcher Kantar Worldpanel, by
                                                                                                                 July 2012 the proportion of
     5,000                                                                                                       Chinese households making
                                                                                                                 FMCG purchases online increased
     4,000                                                                                                       from 16% a year earlier to 22% in
                                                                                                                 China’s top tier cities.
     3,000                                                                                                     •	Asia’s current environment of
                                                                                                                 high inflation and rising prices
     2,000                                                                                                       could trigger greater growth in
                                                                                                                 private label goods as consumers
     1,000                                                                                                       seek value for money.

          0
               2009     2010     2011      2012     2013     2014      2015     2016

     Source: Economist Intelligence Unit




     Figure 7: Food, beverages and tobacco: Market demand growth (% real change pa)

     Territory                          2009      2010     2011     2012      2013     2014    2015    2016
     China                                3.9       1.9     2.6      2.2        2.9     2.8     2.5     2.2
     Hong Kong                           -0.5      5.5      6.7      0.9       -0.2     1.2      1.5     1.3
     India                                6.5      3.3      1.0       4.7       2.7     3.4      4.7    3.9
     Japan                               -0.6      2.8      0.2       1.4       1.0      1.1    0.9      0.7
     Taiwan                               0.0      3.0      2.2      0.3        0.9      1.6    2.0      1.7
     Source: Economist Intelligence Unit




     Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates.




10      PwC
Section 1: Retail




                                                                                       store model, which will allow it to
Hypermarkets, supermarkets and                                                         expand rapidly while limiting
                                                                                       investments11.
convenience stores
                                                                                       Retailers are also targeting customers
                                                                                       more carefully. For example, China’s
                                                                                       CR Vanguard, which has over 4,000
                                                                                       stores across China, is launching a new
                                                                                       high-end chain of boutique
As conditions remain grim in their        plans to open 30 new stores in China in      supermarkets called V+. It will focus
home countries, major international       2012, up from 20-25 per year recently8       on residential communities, targeting
retailers will continue to expand in      and has other plans in addition to           middle class consumers in 1st and 2nd
high-performing emerging markets.         China. India is now attracting               tier cities, while CR Vanguard’s other
India and China place 3rd and 5th         considerable interest after its              brands will target busy commercial
respectively in AT Kearney’s 2012         government announced in September            areas12. Meanwhile, to cater for
Global Retail Development Index,          2012 it would permit foreign direct          consumers concerned about China’s
which ranks the attractiveness of         investment of up to 51% in multi-brand       frequent food safety scandals,
emerging countries to retailers. In a     retailing. Despite several restrictive       Carrefour is stepping up its organic
November 2011 Economist Intelligence      conditions attached, Wal-Mart (US)           business. In May 2012, it added 100
Unit global survey of retail managers,    has already announced entry plans,           new organic products to its list of
two-thirds of the respondents said they   while others like Tesco (UK), Carrefour      “lowest price” goods13.
were redirecting their focus to           and Metro (Germany) could soon
emerging markets, and three-quarters      follow9.                                     Retailers are also moving online,
expected these markets to take up the                                                  recognising customer preferences for
slack from the slowdown in developed      However, retailers are struggling to         online shopping. According to market
markets. China remains the emerging       manage their large-scale expansions          researcher Kantar Worldpanel, the
market of choice, although its economy    into Asia, as dipping sales in their         proportion of households in China’s
and retail sales growth are slowing6.     home markets tighten available               top-tier cities making FMCG purchases
According to PwC’s 15th Annual Global     investment resources. Some companies         online increased to 22% as of July
CEO Survey released in January 2012,      are now reshaping their strategies as        2012 from 16% a year earlier. Shoppers
which surveyed 1,258 CEOs in 60           they enter Asian economies amidst            were drawn by lower prices, the
countries, 60% of CEOs of consumer        slowing growth and fierce competition.       convenience of delivery and access to
goods companies believe that                                                           more brands14. In August 2012,
emerging markets will be the main         Wal-Mart, for example, says it will slow     Wal-Mart received government
driver of growth compared with            down the launch of new stores in China       approval to increase its ownership of
developed economies.                      in 2012 to focus on operational              online supermarket Yihaodian from
                                          efficiency. It was opening more than 40      around 17% to 51.3%. Yihaodian sells
International retailers are still         stores annually between 2009 and             about 180,000 products, and has a
expanding quickly across Asia.            2011 and is among China’s top                nationwide B2C online grocery
Japanese retailer Aeon, which has         retailers, but it has been                   service15. In addition to physical
some 14,000 outlets across 12 Asian       underperforming rivals like Carrefour        expansion, 7-Eleven also plans to roll
markets, is now expanding into            in terms of average revenue per store10.     out an online sales platform in China
Vietnam, Malaysia and China’s smaller     Meanwhile, Japanese-owned 7-Eleven,          in 2013.
cities as part of its ‘Asia Shift’        which has over 100 stores in China, is
expansion strategy7. France’s Carrefour   now experimenting with a franchise




                                                                  2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia    11
Section 1: Retail




     Q&A with Motoya Okada, President, Aeon


                                                   You have taken some initiatives to cater         and to take leadership at such times. But at
                                                   for the needs of elderly consumers.              times of emergency, what is more crucial is
                                                   What has been your experience with               to have “survival and fighting spirit”—not
                                                   these initiatives?                               for yourself but for the benefit of others. For
                                                                                                    instance, we had shopping centre managers
                                                   The shopping centre that we opened early         who made quick decisions to turn their
                                                   this year in Chiba, Japan is designed            stores into temporary shelters. Only with a
                                                   particularly to meet the needs of our senior     strong sense of responsibility to serve the
                                                   customers. Customers enjoy unique                public were they able to exercise such
                                                   shopping experiences including access to a       leadership and avoid the worst-case
                                                   comprehensive range of medical clinics and       scenarios.
                                                   cultural programmes, as well as financial
                                                   services that cater for their lifestyle needs.   Was it the case of Aeon’s “customer-
                                                                                                    first” principle contributing to risk
                                                   The market response has been very good.          management?
     Established in 1758, Aeon has                 The Japanese market is a test ground for
                                                   our effort to shift to a senior-oriented         Yes, and our steadfast corporate mission to
     grown to become the largest retailer          market, one of our strategic growth areas.       benefit our customers is not bound by
     in Japan in terms of operating                From next spring, we’ll be opening more          Japan’s borders. After the recent riots in
     revenue. Aeon Group, which                    stores of this kind in Japan with new            China, all our Chinese employees worked
                                                   formats and services to further meet the         hard to restore the stores as they believed
     comprises 200 companies, recently
                                                   interests of our senior customers.               opening the stores as early as possible
     established a new management                                                                   would benefit their customers. Not a single
     system based on separate                      How are you benefitting from group               employee thought about leaving. I was
                                                   synergies?                                       extremely moved to see the scene in China,
     headquarters for Japan, China and
                                                                                                    which was exactly what I saw in Tohoku
     ASEAN and is looking to repeat the            Our financial services, for instance, allow      after the disaster. I think the outcome
     success in other Asian markets.               us to identify individual (retail) customers.    would be very different depending on the
                                                   By combining our credit card and retail          organisation. You can physically repair
                                                   businesses, we have recently completed a         buildings but you cannot restore the stores
                                                   test in Japan to operate a high-level            if your employees do not return.
                                                   customer relationship management system
                                                   that would allow us to personalise               Last but not least, what do you identify
                                                   promotion efforts. The card business also        as the ultimate value that Aeon is
                                                   helps in the running of loyalty                  bringing to Asia outside Japan?
                                                   programmes. We seek to become the
     What are your expectations for growth         number one player in the credit card             Making products and services available
     in Asian markets?                             business for the new middle class in Asia.       that can help to improve people’s quality of
                                                   So we believe these synergies will be highly     life is important. The paramount issue,
     At the moment, we earn around 80% of our      relevant to the success of our retail business   however, is trust—customers need to
     total retail revenue from the Japanese        in Asian markets.                                believe you will never lie to them. In the
     market. We have a plan to secure                                                               Japanese term, it’s about “establishing
     exponential growth in the Chinese and         You have been very successful in Japan           Noren” (curtain-like cloths that are
     ASEAN markets, with the aim to bring          with Topvalu, your private label. How do         traditionally hung over the entrance of
     earnings from these markets to the same       you plan to take this success abroad?            Japanese stores). This can be translated as
     level as those in Japan by around 2020.                                                        building a brand but “Noren” in fact carries
     We’ll need around 13-15% annual growth        Until recently, we have been bringing the        more meaning—it’s the trust itself, built
     in Asian markets to meet this goal. At the    Topvalu products that we sell in Japan to        between customers and the retailer.
     moment, we are still largely focused on       the Chinese market. But of course it makes
     making the necessary up-front                 more sense to develop and sell products          I’m talking about the old Japanese ethics of
     investments.                                  according to local preferences. We are thus      commerce, the origins of Japan’s customer-
                                                   advancing our localisation effort in China       oriented services—which include practices
     What do you identify as Aeon’s                and other Asian markets, and making              which emerged during the Edo Period, such
     competitive edge that would allow it to       progress towards designing, producing and        as making small units available according
     experience such high growth in Asia?          selling locally. Localisation efforts by         to customers’ needs, and fixing and listing
                                                   region within respective countries also will     set prices (versus selling with variable
     One of the biggest changes in Asia is the     be important for products such as food as        prices). I would say these are expressions of
     rapid growth of the middle class. And the     people’s tastes tend to vary by region.          democracy and justice. And there isn’t a
     middle class is the consumer group that we
                                                                                                    customer anywhere in the world who does
     have always served—for 250 years, since       Can you share your lessons learnt from           not enjoy being treated fairly and with
     we started as a trader of Kimono fabrics in   last year’s crisis in Japan?                     goodwill—these are universally
     the Edo Period. We have deep experience in
                                                                                                    appreciated values.
     servicing this consumer group, as well as     It’s important to be able to gather
     growing alongside them, as they grow.         information and make decisions quickly,



12     PwC
Section 1: Retail




                                                                                        In Hong Kong, demand for food,
Food, beverages and tobacco                                                             beverages and tobacco is forecast to
                                                                                        grow by a nominal 0.9% in 2012, lower
                                                                                        than an earlier forecast of 2.8%, partly
                                                                                        due to the high base effect created by
                                                                                        2011’s strong growth of 6.7%, and
Asia’s large populations and growing        In India, the market demand for food,       partly because of the high prices of
incomes mean that the region will           beverages and tobacco will rise 4.7% in     food imports, which dominate the
remain the world’s largest food market,     2012. Although inflation and prices         sector. Demand will contract by 0.2%
worth US$4.24 trillion in 2012 and set      remain high they are easing from the        in 2013 and grow moderately during
to grow to US$6.92 trillion by 2016. In     alarming heights seen in 2011.              the rest of the forecast period.
China, market demand for food,              Demand growth will remain positive          Imported food products with strong
beverages and tobacco will grow at          through the forecast period, ranging        quality credentials will see rapid
2.2% during 2012, given high inflation      between 2.7% and 4.7%. Rising               growth in sales in 2012-16, as
and rising food prices. Demand growth       household incomes, increasing               consumer fears regarding the quality
will recover to 2.9% in 2013, and then      urbanisation and changing lifestyles        of food imports from mainland China
range between 2.2% and 2.8% for the         will aid demand for packaged food,          will increase the pressure on retailers
rest of the forecast period. Quality        which has been growing strongly. As         and restaurants to source more
control is a major problem for the          India has South Asia’s lowest spending      products from other countries20.
sector. Despite government efforts,         per head on packaged food, the sector
there is likely to be little progress in    holds strong growth potential in            In Taiwan, market demand for food,
addressing this complex problem             2012-16 as incomes increase18. India’s      beverages and tobacco will grow at
during the forecast period. More            wellness products market also offers        only 0.3% in 2012, as the island’s
sophisticated first-tier markets will see   considerable potential. According to an     trade-dependent economy slows on
a rapid rise in consumption of              August 2012 report19, it grew 20% in        weakening global demand. Growth
imported foreign food products in           2011, to Rs590 billion (US$12.6             will remain sluggish at 0.9% in 2013
2012-16, as consumers try new               billion), but still represents under 4%     and will pick up only moderately to
cuisines and seek safer food16.             of overall consumer expenditure. The        between 1.6% and 2.0% for the rest of
                                            report forecasts this market to grow at     the forecast period.
Japan is the world’s third-largest food     a compound annual growth rate
market after the US and China, with         (CAGR) of 18-20% over the next three
retail food sales estimated at US$523       years, reaching Rs950 billion (US$18.7
billion in 2011. However, the market’s      billion) by 2014, driven by a number of
maturity, deflationary pressures in the     factors, including increasing health
sector and strong competition will          awareness, interest in preventive care,
keep sales growth weak. Demand in           increased interest from male customers
the food, beverages and tobacco             and the growing aspirations of
category will grow at only 1.4% in          consumers in smaller towns.
2012, given Japan’s troubled economy,
cautious buying sentiment and
concerns about food safety following
last year’s major earthquake and
nuclear crisis. Demand growth will
slow further in 2013, to 1.0%, and will
remain weak through the forecast
period. Japan’s ageing population will
boost the health food (or functional
food) segment in the medium term.
Japan is the world’s second-largest
market for functional food after the
US, and its range of functional foods is
probably the world’s largest and most
innovative17.




                                                                   2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia    13
Section 1: Retail




     Private label



     Private-label sales continue to chart     Indian retailers have been quick to          between 16% and 42%28. After an
     slow growth across Asia. According to     latch on to the private-label strategy,      initial blitz of own-label products,
     London-based L.E.K. Consulting,           even though the sector was opened to         India’s retailers are now consolidating
     private labels have a much lower share    modern retailers only a few years ago.       their portfolios and aiming to increase
     of supermarket sales in Asia than in      In developed countries, private labels       market share. Aditya Birla Retail’s
     developed countries, ranging from less    took decades to take off and were            More chain launched only 15 products
     than 1% in Indonesia to between 1.5%      introduced only after the retail sector      last year, down from 25 in 2009. It
     and 30% in Thailand, Malaysia, South      was well-developed. Big domestic             discontinued several brands, and
     Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, and          retailers including the Future Group,        instead used just one brand across all
     approximately 6% in Hong Kong21.          Bharti Wal-Mart Retail (a joint venture      products. It also removed high-
     Separate data from Euromonitor show       with Wal-Mart), Aditya Birla Retail,         investment personal care products
     the share of private-label goods in       Reliance Retail, Spencer’s Retail and        from its portfolio29.
     India at 11% and at 4% in China22. As     Dubai-based Landmark Group’s Spar
     Asia’s current environment of high        Hypermarket, all developed their own         Asia’s players may even be able to
     inflation and rising prices drives        private-label brands about five years        up-end some conventional wisdom
     customers to seek value, private labels   ago, as they began building their retail     about the private-label business. For
     have new opportunities to increase        networks. The Future Group, India’s          example, while private labels usually
     their share (they are cheaper than        largest retailer, says that since India is   succeed better in products with low
     other brands because less is spent on     under-branded and under-penetrated           differentiation, India’s Croma chain of
     marketing, distribution and               in many categories, it makes sense to        multi-brand electronics stores sells its
     advertising; retailers push their own     build own-brands while categories are        own brand of durables from
     brands with excellent in-store            themselves developing25.                     refrigerators to hair dryers. The
     placements and promotions). To                                                         retailer expects to almost double its
     overcome Asian consumers’ suspicions      In-house brands now account for              revenues from its own brands to Rs2.5
     about the quality and safety of private   12-15% of sales and over 20-25% of           billion (US$48.4 million) in FY13. The
     labels, retailers are upgrading their     profits for most Indian retailers26.         brand also benefits from the excellent
     packaging and promoting their             Retailers have focused on good               reputation of its parent, the Tata
     international backing where possible.     packaging, attractive pricing and            Group30.
                                               strategic in-store placement to attract
     For example, the UK’s Tesco sells its     consumers. According to market
     Tesco private-label products at its 660   researcher Nielsen, Indian shoppers
     Tesco Lotus stores across Thailand and    spend over US$100 million on private-
     in other Asian countries23, while         label items per year and this is set to
     France’s Carrefour and the US’s           rise to US$500 million by 201527.
     Wal-Mart do the same at their stores
     across Asia. Many of Asia’s local         At the networks of big retailers, these
     players have also developed successful    products now outsell several national
     own-brands in recent years, including     brands in some categories. According
     some of China’s largest retailers.        to data from Nielsen for July-
     Retailer Lianhua Supermarket              September 2011, at the Future Group’s
     Holdings, which by end -2011 had          Big Bazaar and Bharti Retail’s Easy Day
     5,233 hypermarkets, supermarkets          outlets, these retailers’ own private-
     and convenience stores in 19 provinces    label floor cleaners account for over
     in China, has also developed its own      50% of all floor cleaner sales, while
     private-label business24.                 their packaged wheat flour, rice, tea,
                                               spices and salty snacks take shares of



14     PwC
Section 1: Retail




Fashion and apparel



Asia’s fashion and apparel market                     clothing spend will rise throughout
growth will continue to lead global                   2012-16, driven by growing personal                  Key findings
growth through 2012-16. In 2012,                      disposable income and higher interest                •	The gap in demand for fashion
nominal clothing market demand in                     in fashion apparel. Online apparel                     and apparel between Asia and
Asia and Australasia, at US$199.49                    retailing will become an important                     the West will widen
billion, will continue to surpass                     market segment during the forecast                     substantially, with demand in
demand in both Western Europe and                     period31.                                              Asia growing 3.8% in 2013.
North America and that gap will widen
substantially during the forecast                                                                          •	India will be the star performer,
                                                      In Hong Kong, demand in 2012 will
period (see Fig 9). In 2012, demand in                                                                       growing by 9.4% in 2012, with
                                                      grow at 2.8%, on the higher base of
Asia will rise 4.4%. That is lower than                                                                      sales driven by the expanding
                                                      8.5% in 2011. Robust demand will
an earlier forecast of 5.1%, partly                                                                          population of young people,
                                                      continue during the forecast period,
because of a higher base created by                                                                          rising awareness of
                                                      with sales rising steadily through to
2011’s demand growth of 5.3% (higher                                                                         international fashion and an
                                                      2016. Despite very high rents, foreign
than earlier projections of 4.8%) and                                                                        influx of foreign brands. China
                                                      players will continue to enter the local
partly a result of slower economic                                                                           will follow behind with 7.9%
                                                      apparel retailing market, both to tap
growth in the region.                                                                                        growth.
                                                      increasing local demand and to
                                                      capitalise on the rising number                      •	Fast fashion brands are
Demand in China is forecast to grow at                mainland-Chinese tourists shopping in                  expanding rapidly in Asia but
7.9% in 2012, lower than a previously                 Hong Kong32.                                           face stiff local competition.
expected 8.4%, given the slowing
economy, high inflation and high
prices. Still, consumer demand and


Figure 8: Clothing: Market demand growth (% real change pa)

Territory                          2009     2010     2011      2012     2013    2014    2015    2016
Asia and Australasia                 1.9     5.3       5.3      4.4      3.8     4.5     4.8      5.1
China                               10.5     8.5       7.8       7.9      7.5    8.8     8.4      8.1
Hong Kong                           -1.4     6.3       8.5      2.8       1.7    2.6     3.0     2.9
India                                7.8     6.2       5.1      9.4       7.2     7.7    9.0      1.3
Japan                               -1.3     2.3      -0.2       1.0     0.6     0.9      0.7     0.7
Taiwan                               0.4     3.6       3.0       1.1      1.8    2.6      3.1    3.0
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates.




                                                                                   2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia    15
Section 1: Retail




     In India, demand for apparel in 2012 is   In Japan, clothing demand will grow
     forecast to grow at 9.4%, against an      only 1.0% in 2012, lower than an
     earlier estimate of 8.7%. Although high   earlier forecast of 1.5%. Although
     inflation, rising prices and a slowing    reconstruction spending will support
     economy may persist in the short term,    limited economic growth in 2012,
     clothing sales will nevertheless rise     sluggish wage growth will depress
     rapidly during the forecast period,       consumer sentiment in 2012 and
     from US$7.38 billion in 2011, to          through the forecast period. During
     US$13.52 billion in 2016, driven by a     2012-16, private consumption is
     growing population of young people,       expected to rise by less than 1% a year
     rising awareness of international         on average. However, clothing sales
     fashion, and an influx of foreign         will continue to be the most important
     brands. Disposable income will treble     category of retail sales (excluding food
     from US$1 billion in 2012 to US$3         and beverages) in 2012-16, despite
     billion in 2016. However, the market      negligible growth in yen terms35.
     will remain extremely competitive, on
     proliferation of ready-to-wear apparel
     shops and as more foreign companies
     enter the Indian market33.                Figure 9: Clothing: Market demand (nominal US$ million)

     Taiwan’s clothing market is performing    300,000
     moderately. Demand growth is forecast
     at 1.1% in 2012, lower than an earlier
     projection of 3.9%. The global            250,000
     economic slowdown in 2012 is
     expected to drag down the export-
     dependent island’s real GDP growth to     200,000
     1.3% this year. However, demand will
     improve during the rest of the forecast                                                                                             Asia and
     period as GDP growth rebounds,            150,000                                                                                   Australasia
     private consumption expands steadily
     and the inflow of Chinese tourists                                                                                                  North
                                               100,000                                                                                   America
     grows34.

                                                                                                                                         Western
                                                50,000                                                                                   Europe


                                                      0
                                                           2009     2010      2011     2012     2013     2014      2015        2016

                                               Source: Economist Intelligence Unit




                                               Figure 10: Clothing: Market demand (nominal US$ million)

                                               Territory              2009         2010      2011       2012      2013       2014       2015     2016
                                               China                 35,370      41,173    48,893     56,444    64,333     74,563     85,480   98,038
                                               Hong Kong             37,913     40,596     45,726     48,732    51,710     55,129     58,852   62,782
                                               India                  5,397      6,603      7,376      7,755     9,210     10,879     12,602   13,529
                                               Japan                 24,118     25,861     28,079     28,005    26,788     25,468     25,001   24,395
                                               Taiwan                 3,274       3,568     3,977      4,035     4,186      4,400      4,669    4,917
                                               Source: Economist Intelligence Unit




                                               Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates.



16     PwC
Section 1: Retail




Fast fashion expands
aggressively
Under pressure from poor performance
in Western markets and rising input
costs, numerous international fast
fashion brands are hoping to cash in on
Asia’s young demographic and rising
affluence. The fast fashion industry
relies on bulk production to bring
affordably-priced fashion to market in
quick cycles. Fast fashion’s ‘cheap chic’
approach plays well with Asia’s young,
upwardly mobile customers who have
fast-changing tastes and a hunger for
brands but an eye on affordability.

The world’s largest fast fashion retailer,
Spain’s Inditex, owner of the Zara
brand, and many of its competitors,
such as Uniqlo of Japan and H&M of
Sweden, have established themselves
in Asia and are expanding aggressively.      clothing retailer, has one store in Japan    China, too, has strong home-grown
Inditex has 5,527 stores around the          and opened its first China store in May      apparel brands. For example,
world including 300 in China, where          2012. US retailer Forever 21 also            Metersbonwe has over 3,000
it’s one of the most successful foreign      opened its first stores in Hong Kong         branches42 and a presence in the
retailers. It expects to have 425 stores     and Beijing in 201240.                       smallest of Chinese cities. According to
across 50 Chinese cities by end-201236.                                                   Euromonitor, it is China’s third-largest
                                             However, these companies will face           apparel brand behind Nike and local
Japan’s Fast Retailing, which owns           formidable competition from local            sportswear brand Anta. Metersbonwe
Uniqlo, already has 136 stores in            players, who have the advantage of           now plans to expand into London,
Greater China and 181 in the rest of         Asia’s long-standing strength in             Paris, New York and Milan43. Anta had
Asia. It now plans to add 1,000 new          textiles, an understanding of local          7,807 Anta stores in China as of June
stores in each of those markets over the     tastes, years of local experience,           2012 and says it will continue to
next 10 years, seeing great potential in     established distribution networks and        expand, though at a ‘slower’ pace of
middle class consumers in China,             an existing real estate bank. Hong           100 new stores in 201244. China’s
Taiwan, Hong Kong, the ASEAN                 Kong, for example, has a strong set of       Trendy International Group has 300
nations and India37. US fashion brand        local apparel brands such as Giordano,       directly owned stores and hundreds of
Tommy Hilfiger plans to open 500             Baleno, Bossini, I.T and Esprit. These       franchises for its four brands, including
stores in India over the next five years     companies will expand strongly on the        its largest, Ochirly. JNBY, established
through a local joint venture; it already    Chinese mainland and in Southeast            in 1994, runs more than 600
has 58 franchise stores and over 60          Asia in 2012-16, and in some cases also      franchised stores across China45.
shops-in-shops38. American retailer          in EU markets. Hong Kong’s Li & Fung,
Gap is targeting 20 new stores in Hong       among the world’s biggest supply-chain
Kong and mainland China by February          management companies, is moving
2013, raising its store count there to       into apparel retailing and has bought
4539. New companies are also joining         several Western clothing retailers,
the rush. Topshop, owned by the              marketers and brands to market to
Arcadia group, the UK’s largest              Chinese customers41.




                                                                     2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia    17
Section 1: Retail




     Online retailing




     Key findings
     •	Asia will lead the world in business-to-consumer e-commerce sales from
       2013 onwards, accounting for a 41.4% share of the business by 2016.
     •	Recognising the strategic importance of online retailing as a new
       distribution channel, traditional retailers are expanding their own online
       presence in Asia.
     •	Luxury companies are overcoming their fears that online sales will
       compromise their high-end image. Luxury accessory maker Coach (US)
       launched its first official online store in China on Taobao Mall in December
       2011.




                                                Online retailing will grow rapidly in    Infrastructure growth will aid a swift
                                                Asia during 2012-16, aided by            rise in Asian online retailing.
                                                increased broadband and mobile-          According to industry intelligence
                                                phone penetration, the spread of         provider eMarketer, in 2012 the
                                                smartphones and tablet computers,        Asia-Pacific region will account for
                                                and improvements in payments and         31.1% of B2C e-commerce sales
                                                logistics infrastructure. Asian          globally, second only to North
                                                countries are frantically increasing     America’s 33.4% and higher than
                                                access to the internet and mobile        Western Europe’s 26.2%. From 2013
                                                phones. In 2011, China added 30          onwards, Asia will lead the world in
                                                million fixed-broadband subscriptions,   such sales, with a 41.4% share by
                                                half the total subscriptions added       2016, when China’s slice of the pie will
                                                worldwide, while Singapore and the       rise to 23.4%, from 9.9% in 201248.
                                                Republic of Korea had more mobile-
                                                broadband subscriptions than             In 2012, the internet penetration rate
                                                inhabitants46. As of December 2011,      in China is forecast to be 42.8 per 100
                                                26.2% of Asia’s population had           people49. According to Chinese
                                                internet access, accounting for 44.8%    research firm Analysys International,
                                                of the world’s internet users47.




18     PwC
Section 1: Retail




China’s B2C e-commerce transactions        India’s internet penetration is forecast     Taiwan’s high internet penetration of
grew 73% to RMB81.87 billion               to be a low 10.6 subscribers per 100         80.4 subscribers per 100 people60 and
(US$13 billion) in the first quarter of    people in 2012, but its 129 million          high smartphone usage will aid growth
2012, and are expected to reach            users will represent the second-highest      of its e-commerce market, which the
RMB450 billion (US$72 billion) for all     online population in Asia57. Swift           Institute for Information Industry
of 201250. US-based Boston Consulting      growth in internet access, broadband         expects to grow by 20% in 2012, after
Group estimates that e-commerce sales      services and mobile internet access          growing by an estimated 25% in
in China will account for 7.4% of total    could rapidly change India’s online          201161. However, given Taiwan’s small
retail sales by 201551.                    retail landscape. Meanwhile, online          population, online sales growth will
                                           retailers in India are adopting concepts     likely slow down as the market
Hong Kong’s current high internet          such as cash-on-delivery to overcome         approaches saturation in the latter part
penetration of 78 subscribers per 100      obstacles such as low usage of credit        of the forecast period62. An obvious
people in 201252, its densely packed       cards. Overall, online retail revenues       growth market for Taiwan’s
population (which makes delivery of        in India are projected to increase by        e-commerce businesses is mainland
goods more efficient) and the quick        more than five times in the next four        China, but many regulatory
spread of smartphones make it a            years, from an estimated US$1.6              restrictions on the integration of the
promising prospect for online retail.      billion in 2012 to US$8.8 billion in         two markets remain in place.
According to a survey from online          2016, according to Forrester
payments firm Paypal, Hong Kong’s          Research58. M-commerce may grow
online shopping value reached US$1.9       strongly since mobile-phone usage is
billion in 2011 and is expected to touch   rising quicker than fixed internet
US$2.5 billion by 201553. Offline          access, while innovative offerings like
retailers will still thrive since Hong     mobile wallet payment services are
Kong’s shoppers continue to enjoy          also increasing. India had 893.84
physical shopping and searching for        million mobile subscribers at end-
good deals.                                December 2011, including 292 million
                                           in rural India, and a wireless
Japan offers huge potential for online     penetration of 74.15%. According to
and mobile shopping. In 2012 it is         the Internet and Mobile Association of
forecast to have 82.8 internet             India, India’s overall e-commerce
connections per 100 people54 and a         market grew 47% to around Rs460
dynamic mobile-telecommunications          billion (US$9.2 billion) in 201159. The
sector. In 2011 roughly 20% of online      government’s recent announcement
retailers’ sales were made on              that it would further open the retail
smartphones and m-commerce will            sector to foreign investment did not
continue to grow. While the largest        include e-commerce.
online retailers in Japan are general
shopping sites like Rakuten, a local
firm, and Amazon.jp, the local
subsidiary of US-based Amazon,
specialised online retailers are
increasing in number and growing
quickly. For example locondo.jp sells
shoes and handbags55. According to
Forrester Research, e-commerce sales
in Japan will grow from US$63.9
billion in 2012 to US$97.6 billion in
201656.


                                                                   2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia    19
Section 1: Retail




     Q&A with John Lo, CFO & Senior Vice President, Tencent


                                                     Platform, Online Games, etc.), Wireless           users shopping information while mobile
                                                     Value-added Services, Online Advertising          payment facilitates the completion of the
                                                     and e-Commerce transactions. The                  payment procedure on site. We have
                                                     user-paid revenue model and high                  partnered with various offline merchants
                                                     cash-generative nature of our internet            and retailers to experiment with O2O
                                                     business enabled us to weather the                marketing opportunities. Recently, we have
                                                     economic downturn in 2008/09 and                  also launched “QQ Buy” apps for iPhone
                                                     maintain steady growth in both operating          and Android phones to offer e-commerce
                                                     and financial performance. We aim to              services on mobile devices. As 3G
                                                     further diversify our revenue base and            infrastructure becomes more well-
                                                     achieve long-term sustainable growth              established and smartphone penetration
                                                     through investment in our platforms, R&D          increases further, we believe there is a huge
                                                     and new initiatives. We are now in the early      growth potential in mobile commerce.
                                                     stage of developing our e-Commerce
                                                     business, which accounted for 8% of our           Tencent’s internet platforms have
                                                     total revenue in Q2 of 2012.                      brought together the largest internet
     Established in 1998, Tencent                                                                      community in China. What has been the
     provides a comprehensive range                  Our primary goal for e-commerce is to             biggest factor in your success?
                                                     build a consumer-oriented platform which
     of Internet and wireless value-                 delivers quality services and a                   Tencent has built a strong social
     added services. Through its various             differentiated user experience to meet the        infrastructure in China which offers a
     online platforms, including Instant             changing needs and growing demands of             diversified range of products from QQ IM
                                                     our customers for rapid delivery,                 (instant messaging) to QQ Mail (email),
     Messaging QQ, QQ.com, the QQ                    competitive prices, better product choices        social networks Qzone and Pengyou, social
     Game Platform, social networking                and better after-sales services. These are        media Tencent Microblog and smartphone-
     service Qzone and wireless portal,              also the challenges that e-commerce               based social communication platform
                                                     companies have to address. We will                Weixin. We believe our success stems from
     Tencent services the largest online             continue to leverage our multiple platform        our focus on user experience. Leveraging
     community in China and fulfills the             advantages and deep understanding of our          on our huge QQ IM user base (784 million
     user’s needs for communication,                 users’ needs to customise a differentiated        monthly active user accounts as of Q3 of
                                                     online shopping experience for customers.         2012), we are able to create a strong
     information, entertainment and                                                                    community effect for our users. All these
     e-Commerce on the Internet.                     Tencent’s e-commerce site PaiPai has              social communications services are closely
                                                     numerous categories ranging from                  integrated with each other with one single
     There is a lot of concern about the             sports to moms and babies to red                  login ID. Users can share their own social
     economic slowdown in China. What are            packets. Which areas are seeing the               graph and synchronise comments and
     your expectations for growth in the             fastest growth?                                   photo uploads across these platforms. Users
     coming year?                                                                                      can also enjoy unified experience across PC
                                                     We are building a new e-commerce platform,        and mobile terminals.
     The macroeconomic environment in China          buy.qq.com, to host our B2C and small- and
     is challenging but we remain optimistic on      medium-sized enterprise-to-consumer               What impact is online communication
     the growth of the e-commerce market.            (SME2C) marketplaces, lifestyle services (e.g.    (interactive communities such as
     Currently, online shopping sales account        hotel booking and ticketing) and offline-to-      QQ.com, and social networking
     for around 5% of total retail spending in       online (O2O) services. Paipai will focus on the   services) having on consumer buying
     China, representing much room for growth        consumer-to-consumer marketplace under            decisions in China? Are consumer goods
     compared to other developed markets like        the umbrella of buy.qq.com. We see strong         companies prepared for this?
     the United States. In fact, the US has been     growth in our overall e-commerce business
                                                     across all product categories like 3C products    From a merchant perspective, social
     experiencing a faster rate of growth for its
                                                     (ComputerCommunicationsConsumer                 networks are a good platform to access
     online retail sales than offline sales during
                                                     Electronic), and believe B2C business models      potential customers and to enable precise
     the past decade. According to iResearch,
                                                     can better address the increasing demands of      user targeting and CRM (customer
     the average growth rate of China’s online
                                                     online shoppers. Hence, in addition to the        relationship management). At the same
     shopping market is expected to be around
                                                     development of Paipai.com, we will focus on       time, users are highly engaged in social
     30% in the next 3-5 years.
                                                     expanding our principal business and B2C          networks and can share virally their
     The China e-commerce market is                  open platforms in order to capture the            reviews on products and shopping
     growing exponentially. What is the              growing demands in this area.                     experiences with their friends. Nowadays,
     biggest challenge for Tencent in keeping                                                          both online and offline retailers are
     up with this growth? How are you                What are Tencent’s expectations for               increasingly using social networking
     dealing with this challenge?                    growth in the mobile commerce market              services (SNS) to build brand awareness
                                                     in China?                                         and user loyalty. Leveraging the success of
     Tencent has a diversified business model                                                          our SNS platforms, Tencent is also
     which is built upon our huge instant            Mobile commerce is not only a natural             partnering with brand advertisers and
     messaging user base and traffic. We             extension from the desktop, it actually           merchant partners to broaden access to
     generate revenue from four major                presents more potential in terms of               target customers for brand building and
     businesses, namely internet value-added         business models and monetisation. For             user loyalty campaigns.
     service (including Community and Open           example, location-based services offer

20     PwC
Section 1: Retail




Traditional retailers move                 Foreign offline retailers are also           recently launched Minitiao.com, an
online                                     reconsidering their past disregard for       e-commerce website for Japanese and
Recognising the strategic importance       online Asian sales. In China, Wal-Mart       South Korean goods including
of online retailing as a new               upped its stake in online grocery store      cosmetics and apparel brands, as well
distribution channel, traditional          Yihaodian to a majority holding in           as toys and dry goods67.
retailers are expanding their own          February 201265. In May 2012, American
online presence in Asia. China’s largest   retail giant Macy’s announced an             Even luxury companies are overcoming
domestic appliance retailer and            alliance with local e-tailer VIP Stores,     their fears that online sales will
leading multi-channel retailer, Suning,    owner of Jiapin.com and Omei.com,            compromise their high-end image.
derived around 4% of its 2011              both multi-brand luxury e-tailers. It is     They have been alerted by the Asian
revenues from Suning Yigou, its            planning a dedicated section on Omei.        success of online luxury stores,
e-commerce business63. Many                com in 2013. Macy’s has been selling         including the US Gilt Groupe and
traditional retailers across Asia are      online to mainland Chinese consumers         Brands4friends.jp in Japan, Hong
now partnering with e-tailers in           since June 2011, using fulfilment            Kong’s Glamour Sales (operating in
symbiotic relationships, increasing        services from FiftyOne, a US company         China and Japan), and excluzen.com
sales without investing in a separate      that helps retailers serve clients in        and 99labels.com in India, which offer
online business. For example, India’s      foreign markets without investing in         heavily-discounted luxury goods68.
naaptol.com was set up in 2008 as a        infrastructure66. Others, such as            Luxury accessory-maker Coach (US)
comparison website, but after 18           Banana Republic and Marks & Spencer,         launched its first official online store in
months without revenues, it tied up        will now begin to deliver to Hong Kong       China on Taobao Mall in a one-month
with suppliers to advertise their          (and some other Asian countries) from        trial in December 201169, which
products. It now generates business        their home markets.                          recorded 3.5 million visitors but only
worth Rs20 million (US$376,000) a                                                       limited sales. Coach is now reportedly
day, earning commissions of 2-20% of       Scores of Japanese and South Korean          planning to launch its own Chinese
sales from sellers. Amazon has also        retailers, whose brands are extremely        e-commerce platform by end-2012. In
opened in India in its traditional         popular in China, already use Chinese-       March 2012, US-based luxury retailer
format — as a portal through which to      owned portals to sell directly to            Neiman Marcus Group invested US$28
buy goods from numerous retailers          mainland consumers. 360Buy, among            million for a stake in Glamour Sales, its
— called junglee.com64.                    China’s three largest online retailers,      first international foray, and hopes to
                                                                                        launch an online shopping website by
                                                                                        end-2012 to enter the Chinese luxury
                                                                                        market70.




                                                                   2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia    21
Section 2: Consumer goods




     Section 2:
     Consumer goods
     Across Asia, economic growth is slowing, while food inflation remains worryingly
     high. These trends, coupled with high interest rates on consumer loans, mean that
     consumers are allocating their budgets more carefully and looking for value across
     categories. But underlying fundamentals—rising incomes and relatively strong
     growth—remain in place. Private consumption will continue to rise, feeding
     demand for everything from shampoo to luxury watches. As companies of all
     stripes continue their headlong expansions, modern retail infrastructure is
     improving quickly in many countries.

     For consumer goods companies, the good news is tempered by numerous
     challenges, from cut-throat competition to the need to serve widely different
     categories of customers to the daunting task of managing their enormous
     expansions. In response, companies are planning their expansions more
     judiciously, partnering with local players, better targeting customer groups, and
     exploring online sales and private labels to provide value.




22     PwC
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)
Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)

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Etude PwC sur le secteur de la distribution en Asie (2013)

  • 1. www.pwc.com 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia
  • 2.
  • 3. Carrie Yu China & Asia Pacific Retail and Consumer Leader PwC Foreword Impacted by the global economic As the largest market in Asia, China making a comeback, and still more conditions, growth in many Asian remains crucial for many retail and that have turned around successfully markets has slowed down. However, consumer companies. The Chinese through transforming the operating the region as a whole remains ahead of government has reiterated its emphasis models and product offerings. In an North America and Europe. Retail in boosting domestic consumption, evolving and dynamic market sales volume in Asia Pacific is relative to fixed investments and environment, the strong survivors are forecasted to grow 6% in 2013 and will export, as the key economic driver of often those who stand firm on their maintain this upward momentum growth. While the pace of growth may corporate mission, backed by solid through to 2016 with an estimated have slowed, the retail industry is infrastructure fundamentals and market worth of US$11.8 trillion, forecasted to grow at 10.5% in 2013 equipped with razor sharp focus to while that of North America and and 10.4% through to 2016. At the constantly reinvent themselves to Western Europe is US$4.4 trillion and same time, India, with its huge young create value to stakeholders. US$3.1 trillion respectively. Home to population and growing income of the China and India, Asia continues to be middle class, will continue to attract Indeed, we have witnessed numerous the main driver of retail growth the attention of international and innovations and success stories of globally and holds out the best regional players. This is particular so many local and international opportunity for growth and profits for with the recent relaxation of the limits companies in the industry. In this many international retail and on foreign investments in Delhi to connection, I am personally inspired consumer companies. allow 51% foreign equity in multi- by the interviews featured in this branded retail operation. India’s retail report and hope our readers will find The growing critical mass of growth is forecasted to bounce back the same inspiration. We are honoured consumers in Asia warrants long-term strongly from 1.9% last year to 6% in to have some of the region’s most investments and tailored market 2013. successful companies in generously strategies. Indeed, by 2020, the sharing their core values and ethics, percentage of the population However, Asia’s consumer markets are business visions and consumer considered as middle class is envisaged not completely liberalised and remain insights. I am deeply grateful to Mr to shift from North America and highly fragmented. Traditional Motoya Okada of Aeon, Mr John Lo of Europe to the Asia Pacific region. This retailing still dominates and local Tencent, Mr A. Mahendran of Godrej shift may happen even earlier, as players are abound. Apart from the and Mr Nigel Luk of Cartier for sharing China’s leadership has committed in challenges in navigating through their wisdom. I would also like to take the recent 18th National Congress of regulatory hurdles as well as adapting this opportunity to thank our the Communist Party of China, to to cultural differences and consumer colleagues in the region and the double the country’s 2010 GDP and per preferences, retail and consumer Economist Intelligence Unit for their capita income of both urban and rural companies also have to cope with the invaluable input and assistance. households by 2020. The expanding influx of new competitors to the middle class consumers will be a market, whether online or offline. Over Sincerely, substantial force in driving demands the years, some international retail for a wide spectrum of products, and consumer companies might have ranging from functional food, personal exited from certain markets in the care products to the latest smartphone region, but there are also others models. The same phenomenon is also happening across many Asian countries including India, Indonesia January 2013 and Vietnam. 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 1
  • 4. This report was written in cooperation with the Economist Intelligence Unit’s industry and management research division. The economic and industry forecasts included are those of the Economist Intelligence Unit. Due to a change in methodology some historical figures may be significantly different to those published in last year’s report.
  • 5. Table of contents 4 Executive summary 6 Introduction Section 1: Retail 10 Food and general retail 11 Hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores 12 — Q&A with Motoya Okada of Aeon 13 Food, beverages and tobacco 14 Private label 15 Fashion and apparel 18 Online retailing 20 — Q&A with John Lo of Tencent Section 2: Consumer goods 23 Fast-moving consumer goods 25 — Q&A with A. Mahendran of Godrej 28 Luxury brands 31 — Q&A with Nigel Luk of Cartier 33 Durable consumer goods and electronics 37 At a glance: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam 50 Conclusion 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 3
  • 6. Executive Summary The outlook for the global economy remains uncertain, as consumers and businesses alike wait for clear directions on a range of economic risks, from the US deficit to the euro zone crisis. The European Union (EU) is forecast to contract in 2012 and to muster only marginal growth in 2013. Growth in the US and China is also slowing. Although governments in both countries have introduced stimulus measures, any upturn is expected to be modest. Asia’s other economies will slow as well, but will look healthy by comparison with the US and EU, with regional growth (excluding Japan) averaging 5.7% in 2012 and 6.4% in 2013. This report discusses the outlook for September 2012 that it would permit six retail and consumer products foreign direct investment of up to 51% Asia will remain the main driver of sub-sectors in Asia — food and general in multi-brand retailing. Retailers, global retail sales growth, but retail, fashion and apparel, online particularly in China, are beginning to companies will be challenged by retailing, fast-moving consumer goods target customers more carefully. For slowing economies and high inflation (FMCG), luxury brands, and durable example, CR Vanguard is launching a and interest rates. Retail sales are still consumer goods and electronics. It new high-end chain of boutique expected to expand by a respectable focuses, in particular, on China, Hong supermarkets, while Carrefour is 5.8% in 2012# and 6% in 2013, Kong, India, Japan and Taiwan, and stepping up its strategy to cater for although this is down substantially looks at how the industry is faring in consumers concerned about China’s from 9.6% volume growth in 2010. 2012 and is expected to grow through frequent food safety problems by Companies are responding by 2016, and the opportunities and focusing on organic food. reworking their product, production challenges in the years ahead. and regional strategies. As Asia’s current environment of The main findings of the report are as high inflation and rising prices All eyes will continue to focus on follows: drives customers to seek value, Mainland China (China), by far Asia’s private food labels have new largest retail market. For many, the opportunities to increase their Major international retailers will fastest growth will come in the less share. While the private label business continue to expand in Asia, with developed third- and fourth-tier cities, took decades to develop in Western more tailored strategies being as disposable incomes there rise countries and came about only after introduced in China. By 2016 China rapidly. The proportion of Chinese the retail sector matured, the concept will overtake the US as the world’s households earning over US$15,000 is rapidly catching on in Asia, where largest retail sales market, worth some per year will increase from roughly large populations and growing US$4.2 trillion. India, too, is now 11% of the total in 2011 to 41% in incomes mean that the region will attracting considerable interest, after 2016, by conservative estimates. remain the world’s largest food market, its government announced in # This figure is expected to be revised downward based on new forecasts for India, which became 4 PwC available just prior to publication of this report.
  • 7. Executive Summary worth US$4.2 trillion in 2012. India’s including both Asian retail companies Chinese and other Asian travellers big retailers have been very active in and foreign offline retailers such as abroad. But local, home-grown luxury introducing private label products, America’s Macy’s department stores, brands will also emerge, catering to which now account for 20-25% of are now expanding their own online Asian consumers’ rediscovery of their profits for most. In addition to catering presence in Asia in partnership with own long-standing traditions of local for the needs of value-conscious e-tailers. The online market’s growth craftsmanship. For example, Chow Tai consumers, private label goods can in 2012-16 will be aided by increased Fook Jewellery Group of Hong Kong is also fill a void in markets such as India broadband and mobile-phone already twice the size of iconic where many categories of goods are penetration, the spread of smartphones American jeweller Tiffany & Co in underdeveloped. To overcome and tablet computers, and terms of revenue. As local brands seek consumers’ concerns about the quality improvements in payments and international capital and expertise, and safety of private labels, retailers logistics infrastructure. and global luxury brands remain keen are upgrading packaging and to appeal to local tastes, partnerships promoting their international backing Rising incomes will continue to between global and local brands, such where possible. drive growth in the FMCG sector but as Richemont’s controlling stake in companies will have to contend with Hong Kong-based fashion label Asian demand for fashion and several challenges, including Shanghai Tang, will become more apparel will continue to lead the increasingly demanding, value- common. world, and international fast conscious consumers and cut-throat fashion brands are expanding competition. Consumer spending is Growth in demand for consumer aggressively to cash in on Asia’s being hit by high inflation, rising durables and electronics is slowing young demographic and rising interest rates and price hikes by FMCG but will remain strong. However, affluence. Asian demand for fashion companies in response to costlier Japanese manufacturers are losing and apparel will continue to surpass inputs and commodities. Tough their decades-long dominance in that in Western Europe and North economic times are intensifying Asia in these sectors. Market demand America and the gap will widen in the existing challenges for foreign for electrical appliances and coming years. This has attracted the companies. For example, in December housewares will increase 5.9% in Asia interest of many foreign brands, 2011, Switzerland’s Nestlé and France’s in 2012, lower than an earlier forecast particularly in the area of fast fashion, Danone revisited their China business of 6.6%. However, growth will recover which targets young, upwardly mobile models in the face of fierce local to 6.8% in 2013 and expand customers. Newcomers to the Asia competition. In response to all these consistently through the forecast market in 2012 included Topshop of challenges, FMCG companies are period to 2016. Strong growth is the UK and US retailer Forever 21, who planning their expansions more encouraging competition and Japanese join Spain’s Inditex, owner of the Zara judiciously, partnering with local manufacturers, hurt by the global brand, Uniqlo of Japan and H&M of companies, and better targeting economic crisis, a strong yen and Sweden, all of which have been rapidly customer groups. Many are putting natural disasters in Japan and expanding in recent years, notably in renewed emphasis on expansion in Thailand, are rapidly losing their China. rural areas and smaller cities. They are dominance. As they struggle, also looking to acquisitions to buy companies such as South Korea’s Online retailing continues to grow market share. Samsung, China’s Haier and Taiwan’s rapidly in Asia, prompting Hon Hai, have swooped in to capture traditional and foreign offline Asian consumers now account for market share by expanding quickly and retailers and even luxury brands to over half of global luxury sales, and offering lower prices, a wider range embrace online sales in the region. the boom is spurring the growth of and adequate technology in an According to industry intelligence local luxury brands. According to the increasingly commoditised market. provider eMarketer, from 2013 World Luxury Association, China is set onwards Asia will lead the world in to replace Japan as the most important global business-to-consumer (B2C) market for luxury in Asia. Global e-commerce sales, with a 41.4% share brands will continue to increase their by 2016. Traditional retailers, presence and efforts to cater for 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 5
  • 8. 9.8%, on the back of companies Introduction widening their reach, the modernisation of the retail industry and the influx of new consumers. China will overtake the US as the world’s largest retail sales market in 2016, when its retail sales are forecast to be worth US$4.2 trillion. Growth will remain high through the rest of the forecast period. The fastest growth The outlook for the global economy 9.6% volume growth in 2010 they are will come in the less developed remains uncertain at best. The EU still expected to expand by a third- and fourth-tier cities, as economy is forecast to contract in 2012 respectable 5.8% in 2012. Next year disposable incomes there rise rapidly. and to manage only marginally that should accelerate to 6%, with the The proportion of Chinese households positive growth in 2013. Growth in the upturn lasting through the forecast earning over US$15,000 per year will US and China is also slowing. While period to 2016, when the market will increase from roughly 11% of the total policymakers continue to work on be worth US$11.8 trillion. in 2011 to 41% in 2016, by conservative action plans, the circumstances are estimates1. such that they are likely to accomplish All eyes are on prospects for China, by little more than to prevent a deeper far Asia’s largest retail market. While In Japan, Asia’s second-biggest market economic downturn. Asia’s economies the economy has been slowing, the after China in dollar terms, retail sales will slow as well, but will still look Chinese government has made clear will expand by a modest 1.6% in 2012 healthy by comparison, with regional that it will intervene to stimulate and contract slightly for two years growth (excluding Japan) averaging growth if necessary. China’s GDP is thereafter as Japan’s trade-dependent 5.7% in 2012 and picking up to 6.4% in predicted to grow 7.8% in 2012 and at economy continues to suffer against a 2013. around 8% through the rest of the backdrop of weak external demand forecast period. Despite high inflation and a strong currency. Domestic Asia will remain the main growth and prices, China’s retail sales will demand is expected to remain weak, driver of retail sales globally. Although grow at a still impressive 10.9% in given poor economic growth and an retail sales have slowed from their 2012, higher than an earlier forecast of uncertain employment market. Retail 6 PwC
  • 9. Introduction sales growth will remain negligible Figure 1: Real GDP growth (% change) through the forecast period, partly Region 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 because unemployment will remain Asia and Australasia (incl Japan) 1.2 7.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 relatively high and wage growth Economies in transition* -5.6 3.4 3.8 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.9 subdued at best. Nevertheless, Latin America -1.9 6.0 4.3 3.1 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.1 relatively high incomes and strong Middle East and North Africa 1.7 5.2 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.3 demand for high-end goods will keep North America -3.4 3.0 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 Japan’s retail spending among Asia’s Western Europe -4.2 2.2 1.7 -0.2 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 highest2. World -2.3 4.2 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.9 3.0 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit India’s economy has started to look *Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine sluggish, and GDP growth will slow to 5.8% in 2012, while consumer price inflation remains a high 9.3%. Given Figure 2: Global retail sales growth by volume (% pa) the uncertain economic outlook and rising prices, retail sales growth will Region 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 slow substantially to 1.9% in 2012, Asia and Australasia 5.3 9.6 5.2 5.8 6.0 6.9 6.7 6.8 Economies in transition -4.4 3.9 6.6 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.5 much lower than an earlier forecast of Latin America 0.1 3.1 5.2 4.9 4.6 5.4 4.7 5.3 5.3%, although demand growth for Middle East and North Africa 1.6 3.6 2.7 1.0 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.1 more basic items like food and soaps North America -5.8 0.8 3.8 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 and cleansers will remain strong. India Western Europe -2.5 0.2 -1.0 -1.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 is Asia’s third-largest retail market World -0.6 4.2 3.6 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 after China and Japan, although it has one of Asia’s lowest sales per head Source: Economist Intelligence Unit ratios. Retail sales growth will bounce back to 6% in 2013 as GDP growth Figure 3: Global retail sales (in US$ trillion) picks up and inflation abates Region 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 somewhat, with growth hovering Asia and Australasia 4.93 5.88 6.81 7.43 8.23 9.24 10.43 11.81 between 5% and 6% for the remainder Western Europe 2.89 2.85 3.05 2.91 2.94 2.97 3.00 3.14 of the forecast period, driven by North America 3.25 3.36 3.61 3.74 3.89 4.06 4.23 4.41 income growth, increasing Latin America 1.02 1.17 1.29 1.37 1.49 1.63 1.75 1.89 urbanisation, and a rising number of Source: Economist Intelligence Unit attractive stores and foreign brands. The increase in the number of wealthy households from an estimated 494,000 with annual earnings over US$50,000 Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates. in 2012 to 2.4 million in 2016 will drive demand for non-essential and luxury goods3. Delhi has once again announced a relaxation of the limits on foreign investment in its retail sector, saying it will allow 51% foreign equity in multi-brand retail operations. Foreign retailers have expressed keen interest, but there is still strong opposition to the move from some quarters. 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 7
  • 10. Introduction Figure 4: Asia retail sales growth by volume (% pa) Territory 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 In Hong Kong, retail sales volumes will Australia 3.29 2.15 0.10 0.70 1.10 1.30 1.70 2.00 grow 2.7% in 2012 as economic China 16.82 19.07 10.90 10.90 10.50 11.10 10.20 10.00 growth in the territory dips to 1.5% on Hong Kong 0.01 15.61 18.50 2.70 1.50 3.40 4.50 4.50 the back of a slowing global economy India -0.37 8.95 3.10 1.90 6.00 5.60 5.90 6.10 and China’s reduced growth rate. Indonesia 3.47 4.78 5.20 4.60 5.50 6.70 6.60 6.50 Retail sales volume growth will slow to Japan -0.93 3.30 -0.60 1.60 -0.10 -0.50 0.30 0.40 1.5% in 2013 as unemployment rises. Malaysia 0.62 5.83 6.70 4.90 5.70 5.00 4.90 4.80 Nevertheless, relatively strong New Zealand 0.50 2.50 -0.40 -1.20 2.30 2.30 3.20 3.30 economic growth (which is expected to Philippines 3.98 5.56 1.80 2.90 4.90 5.00 5.20 5.20 return to 4.2% in 2014 based on a Singapore -0.58 6.70 1.30 1.70 2.70 3.80 4.60 5.30 South Korea -0.31 4.55 1.90 1.00 2.10 2.20 2.80 2.90 recovery in global trade) and rising Taiwan -1.42 9.10 5.00 0.20 1.80 2.60 3.00 2.70 local incomes will provide impetus to Thailand -0.54 6.70 1.50 7.80 6.90 5.30 4.80 4.70 retail sales in Hong Kong over the Vietnam 3.05 4.73 6.30 8.30 11.10 10.30 8.70 6.40 medium term. Though visitor numbers from mainland China have increased, Source: Economist Intelligence Unit growth in sales of luxury products such as jewellery, watches and clocks and Figure 5: Retail sales in Asia (in US$ billion) valuables has slowed, indicating that while the uncertain global economic 4,500 outlook has not dissuaded tourists from visiting Hong Kong, it has made 4,000 them more cautious about spending. Given the relatively high cost of 3,500 inflation, retailers’ profitability will depend partly on their ability to pass 3,000 on rising costs to customers, hence China ensuring that they are able to develop 2,500 Hong Kong premium brands for which higher 2,000 prices can be charged4. India 1,500 Japan Taiwan’s retail sales will increase by Taiwan only 0.2% in 2012, as its export- 1,000 oriented economy slows on weakening global demand. However, as growth in 500 the wider economy picks up, retail volume growth is likely to recover to 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1.8% in 2013 and to rise to between 2% and 3% for the remainder of the Source: Economist Intelligence Unit forecast period. With a population of just over 23 million, Taiwan is a smaller market than most in East Asia. Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates. However, at over US$10,000, annual disposable income per head is relatively high, and over 50% of households have an annual income over US$25,000 (this will rise to a forecast 65% by 2016). Retail sales will also be supported by more visitors from China, as visa and travel restrictions continue to be eased5. 8 PwC
  • 11. Section 1: Retail The future of global retail lies firmly in Asia, but economic growth in the region is slowing and inflation and interest rates are high. Companies are responding by reworking their product, production and regional strategies and looking for acquisitions, while continuing with their organic expansion. China remains the main focus for foreign companies across all categories. As international companies try to make inroads into Asian markets, they will face stiff competition from well- established local brands. Countries across Asia are quickly expanding access to broadband and mobile phones. This is helping online retailing in Asia to expand quickly and traditional retailers are exploring the online channel. 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 9
  • 12. Section 1: Retail Food and general retail Key findings • Major international retailers continue to expand in Asia, although sluggish home markets mean that some are finding Figure 6: Retail sales of food in Asia and Australasia (in US$ billion) investment resources constrained. 8,000 • Recognising customer preferences for online shopping, traditional 7,000 retailers are making the move online. According to market 6,000 researcher Kantar Worldpanel, by July 2012 the proportion of 5,000 Chinese households making FMCG purchases online increased 4,000 from 16% a year earlier to 22% in China’s top tier cities. 3,000 • Asia’s current environment of high inflation and rising prices 2,000 could trigger greater growth in private label goods as consumers 1,000 seek value for money. 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Figure 7: Food, beverages and tobacco: Market demand growth (% real change pa) Territory 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 China 3.9 1.9 2.6 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 Hong Kong -0.5 5.5 6.7 0.9 -0.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 India 6.5 3.3 1.0 4.7 2.7 3.4 4.7 3.9 Japan -0.6 2.8 0.2 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 Taiwan 0.0 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.7 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates. 10 PwC
  • 13. Section 1: Retail store model, which will allow it to Hypermarkets, supermarkets and expand rapidly while limiting investments11. convenience stores Retailers are also targeting customers more carefully. For example, China’s CR Vanguard, which has over 4,000 stores across China, is launching a new high-end chain of boutique As conditions remain grim in their plans to open 30 new stores in China in supermarkets called V+. It will focus home countries, major international 2012, up from 20-25 per year recently8 on residential communities, targeting retailers will continue to expand in and has other plans in addition to middle class consumers in 1st and 2nd high-performing emerging markets. China. India is now attracting tier cities, while CR Vanguard’s other India and China place 3rd and 5th considerable interest after its brands will target busy commercial respectively in AT Kearney’s 2012 government announced in September areas12. Meanwhile, to cater for Global Retail Development Index, 2012 it would permit foreign direct consumers concerned about China’s which ranks the attractiveness of investment of up to 51% in multi-brand frequent food safety scandals, emerging countries to retailers. In a retailing. Despite several restrictive Carrefour is stepping up its organic November 2011 Economist Intelligence conditions attached, Wal-Mart (US) business. In May 2012, it added 100 Unit global survey of retail managers, has already announced entry plans, new organic products to its list of two-thirds of the respondents said they while others like Tesco (UK), Carrefour “lowest price” goods13. were redirecting their focus to and Metro (Germany) could soon emerging markets, and three-quarters follow9. Retailers are also moving online, expected these markets to take up the recognising customer preferences for slack from the slowdown in developed However, retailers are struggling to online shopping. According to market markets. China remains the emerging manage their large-scale expansions researcher Kantar Worldpanel, the market of choice, although its economy into Asia, as dipping sales in their proportion of households in China’s and retail sales growth are slowing6. home markets tighten available top-tier cities making FMCG purchases According to PwC’s 15th Annual Global investment resources. Some companies online increased to 22% as of July CEO Survey released in January 2012, are now reshaping their strategies as 2012 from 16% a year earlier. Shoppers which surveyed 1,258 CEOs in 60 they enter Asian economies amidst were drawn by lower prices, the countries, 60% of CEOs of consumer slowing growth and fierce competition. convenience of delivery and access to goods companies believe that more brands14. In August 2012, emerging markets will be the main Wal-Mart, for example, says it will slow Wal-Mart received government driver of growth compared with down the launch of new stores in China approval to increase its ownership of developed economies. in 2012 to focus on operational online supermarket Yihaodian from efficiency. It was opening more than 40 around 17% to 51.3%. Yihaodian sells International retailers are still stores annually between 2009 and about 180,000 products, and has a expanding quickly across Asia. 2011 and is among China’s top nationwide B2C online grocery Japanese retailer Aeon, which has retailers, but it has been service15. In addition to physical some 14,000 outlets across 12 Asian underperforming rivals like Carrefour expansion, 7-Eleven also plans to roll markets, is now expanding into in terms of average revenue per store10. out an online sales platform in China Vietnam, Malaysia and China’s smaller Meanwhile, Japanese-owned 7-Eleven, in 2013. cities as part of its ‘Asia Shift’ which has over 100 stores in China, is expansion strategy7. France’s Carrefour now experimenting with a franchise 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 11
  • 14. Section 1: Retail Q&A with Motoya Okada, President, Aeon You have taken some initiatives to cater and to take leadership at such times. But at for the needs of elderly consumers. times of emergency, what is more crucial is What has been your experience with to have “survival and fighting spirit”—not these initiatives? for yourself but for the benefit of others. For instance, we had shopping centre managers The shopping centre that we opened early who made quick decisions to turn their this year in Chiba, Japan is designed stores into temporary shelters. Only with a particularly to meet the needs of our senior strong sense of responsibility to serve the customers. Customers enjoy unique public were they able to exercise such shopping experiences including access to a leadership and avoid the worst-case comprehensive range of medical clinics and scenarios. cultural programmes, as well as financial services that cater for their lifestyle needs. Was it the case of Aeon’s “customer- first” principle contributing to risk The market response has been very good. management? Established in 1758, Aeon has The Japanese market is a test ground for our effort to shift to a senior-oriented Yes, and our steadfast corporate mission to grown to become the largest retailer market, one of our strategic growth areas. benefit our customers is not bound by in Japan in terms of operating From next spring, we’ll be opening more Japan’s borders. After the recent riots in revenue. Aeon Group, which stores of this kind in Japan with new China, all our Chinese employees worked formats and services to further meet the hard to restore the stores as they believed comprises 200 companies, recently interests of our senior customers. opening the stores as early as possible established a new management would benefit their customers. Not a single system based on separate How are you benefitting from group employee thought about leaving. I was synergies? extremely moved to see the scene in China, headquarters for Japan, China and which was exactly what I saw in Tohoku ASEAN and is looking to repeat the Our financial services, for instance, allow after the disaster. I think the outcome success in other Asian markets. us to identify individual (retail) customers. would be very different depending on the By combining our credit card and retail organisation. You can physically repair businesses, we have recently completed a buildings but you cannot restore the stores test in Japan to operate a high-level if your employees do not return. customer relationship management system that would allow us to personalise Last but not least, what do you identify promotion efforts. The card business also as the ultimate value that Aeon is helps in the running of loyalty bringing to Asia outside Japan? programmes. We seek to become the What are your expectations for growth number one player in the credit card Making products and services available in Asian markets? business for the new middle class in Asia. that can help to improve people’s quality of So we believe these synergies will be highly life is important. The paramount issue, At the moment, we earn around 80% of our relevant to the success of our retail business however, is trust—customers need to total retail revenue from the Japanese in Asian markets. believe you will never lie to them. In the market. We have a plan to secure Japanese term, it’s about “establishing exponential growth in the Chinese and You have been very successful in Japan Noren” (curtain-like cloths that are ASEAN markets, with the aim to bring with Topvalu, your private label. How do traditionally hung over the entrance of earnings from these markets to the same you plan to take this success abroad? Japanese stores). This can be translated as level as those in Japan by around 2020. building a brand but “Noren” in fact carries We’ll need around 13-15% annual growth Until recently, we have been bringing the more meaning—it’s the trust itself, built in Asian markets to meet this goal. At the Topvalu products that we sell in Japan to between customers and the retailer. moment, we are still largely focused on the Chinese market. But of course it makes making the necessary up-front more sense to develop and sell products I’m talking about the old Japanese ethics of investments. according to local preferences. We are thus commerce, the origins of Japan’s customer- advancing our localisation effort in China oriented services—which include practices What do you identify as Aeon’s and other Asian markets, and making which emerged during the Edo Period, such competitive edge that would allow it to progress towards designing, producing and as making small units available according experience such high growth in Asia? selling locally. Localisation efforts by to customers’ needs, and fixing and listing region within respective countries also will set prices (versus selling with variable One of the biggest changes in Asia is the be important for products such as food as prices). I would say these are expressions of rapid growth of the middle class. And the people’s tastes tend to vary by region. democracy and justice. And there isn’t a middle class is the consumer group that we customer anywhere in the world who does have always served—for 250 years, since Can you share your lessons learnt from not enjoy being treated fairly and with we started as a trader of Kimono fabrics in last year’s crisis in Japan? goodwill—these are universally the Edo Period. We have deep experience in appreciated values. servicing this consumer group, as well as It’s important to be able to gather growing alongside them, as they grow. information and make decisions quickly, 12 PwC
  • 15. Section 1: Retail In Hong Kong, demand for food, Food, beverages and tobacco beverages and tobacco is forecast to grow by a nominal 0.9% in 2012, lower than an earlier forecast of 2.8%, partly due to the high base effect created by 2011’s strong growth of 6.7%, and Asia’s large populations and growing In India, the market demand for food, partly because of the high prices of incomes mean that the region will beverages and tobacco will rise 4.7% in food imports, which dominate the remain the world’s largest food market, 2012. Although inflation and prices sector. Demand will contract by 0.2% worth US$4.24 trillion in 2012 and set remain high they are easing from the in 2013 and grow moderately during to grow to US$6.92 trillion by 2016. In alarming heights seen in 2011. the rest of the forecast period. China, market demand for food, Demand growth will remain positive Imported food products with strong beverages and tobacco will grow at through the forecast period, ranging quality credentials will see rapid 2.2% during 2012, given high inflation between 2.7% and 4.7%. Rising growth in sales in 2012-16, as and rising food prices. Demand growth household incomes, increasing consumer fears regarding the quality will recover to 2.9% in 2013, and then urbanisation and changing lifestyles of food imports from mainland China range between 2.2% and 2.8% for the will aid demand for packaged food, will increase the pressure on retailers rest of the forecast period. Quality which has been growing strongly. As and restaurants to source more control is a major problem for the India has South Asia’s lowest spending products from other countries20. sector. Despite government efforts, per head on packaged food, the sector there is likely to be little progress in holds strong growth potential in In Taiwan, market demand for food, addressing this complex problem 2012-16 as incomes increase18. India’s beverages and tobacco will grow at during the forecast period. More wellness products market also offers only 0.3% in 2012, as the island’s sophisticated first-tier markets will see considerable potential. According to an trade-dependent economy slows on a rapid rise in consumption of August 2012 report19, it grew 20% in weakening global demand. Growth imported foreign food products in 2011, to Rs590 billion (US$12.6 will remain sluggish at 0.9% in 2013 2012-16, as consumers try new billion), but still represents under 4% and will pick up only moderately to cuisines and seek safer food16. of overall consumer expenditure. The between 1.6% and 2.0% for the rest of report forecasts this market to grow at the forecast period. Japan is the world’s third-largest food a compound annual growth rate market after the US and China, with (CAGR) of 18-20% over the next three retail food sales estimated at US$523 years, reaching Rs950 billion (US$18.7 billion in 2011. However, the market’s billion) by 2014, driven by a number of maturity, deflationary pressures in the factors, including increasing health sector and strong competition will awareness, interest in preventive care, keep sales growth weak. Demand in increased interest from male customers the food, beverages and tobacco and the growing aspirations of category will grow at only 1.4% in consumers in smaller towns. 2012, given Japan’s troubled economy, cautious buying sentiment and concerns about food safety following last year’s major earthquake and nuclear crisis. Demand growth will slow further in 2013, to 1.0%, and will remain weak through the forecast period. Japan’s ageing population will boost the health food (or functional food) segment in the medium term. Japan is the world’s second-largest market for functional food after the US, and its range of functional foods is probably the world’s largest and most innovative17. 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 13
  • 16. Section 1: Retail Private label Private-label sales continue to chart Indian retailers have been quick to between 16% and 42%28. After an slow growth across Asia. According to latch on to the private-label strategy, initial blitz of own-label products, London-based L.E.K. Consulting, even though the sector was opened to India’s retailers are now consolidating private labels have a much lower share modern retailers only a few years ago. their portfolios and aiming to increase of supermarket sales in Asia than in In developed countries, private labels market share. Aditya Birla Retail’s developed countries, ranging from less took decades to take off and were More chain launched only 15 products than 1% in Indonesia to between 1.5% introduced only after the retail sector last year, down from 25 in 2009. It and 30% in Thailand, Malaysia, South was well-developed. Big domestic discontinued several brands, and Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, and retailers including the Future Group, instead used just one brand across all approximately 6% in Hong Kong21. Bharti Wal-Mart Retail (a joint venture products. It also removed high- Separate data from Euromonitor show with Wal-Mart), Aditya Birla Retail, investment personal care products the share of private-label goods in Reliance Retail, Spencer’s Retail and from its portfolio29. India at 11% and at 4% in China22. As Dubai-based Landmark Group’s Spar Asia’s current environment of high Hypermarket, all developed their own Asia’s players may even be able to inflation and rising prices drives private-label brands about five years up-end some conventional wisdom customers to seek value, private labels ago, as they began building their retail about the private-label business. For have new opportunities to increase networks. The Future Group, India’s example, while private labels usually their share (they are cheaper than largest retailer, says that since India is succeed better in products with low other brands because less is spent on under-branded and under-penetrated differentiation, India’s Croma chain of marketing, distribution and in many categories, it makes sense to multi-brand electronics stores sells its advertising; retailers push their own build own-brands while categories are own brand of durables from brands with excellent in-store themselves developing25. refrigerators to hair dryers. The placements and promotions). To retailer expects to almost double its overcome Asian consumers’ suspicions In-house brands now account for revenues from its own brands to Rs2.5 about the quality and safety of private 12-15% of sales and over 20-25% of billion (US$48.4 million) in FY13. The labels, retailers are upgrading their profits for most Indian retailers26. brand also benefits from the excellent packaging and promoting their Retailers have focused on good reputation of its parent, the Tata international backing where possible. packaging, attractive pricing and Group30. strategic in-store placement to attract For example, the UK’s Tesco sells its consumers. According to market Tesco private-label products at its 660 researcher Nielsen, Indian shoppers Tesco Lotus stores across Thailand and spend over US$100 million on private- in other Asian countries23, while label items per year and this is set to France’s Carrefour and the US’s rise to US$500 million by 201527. Wal-Mart do the same at their stores across Asia. Many of Asia’s local At the networks of big retailers, these players have also developed successful products now outsell several national own-brands in recent years, including brands in some categories. According some of China’s largest retailers. to data from Nielsen for July- Retailer Lianhua Supermarket September 2011, at the Future Group’s Holdings, which by end -2011 had Big Bazaar and Bharti Retail’s Easy Day 5,233 hypermarkets, supermarkets outlets, these retailers’ own private- and convenience stores in 19 provinces label floor cleaners account for over in China, has also developed its own 50% of all floor cleaner sales, while private-label business24. their packaged wheat flour, rice, tea, spices and salty snacks take shares of 14 PwC
  • 17. Section 1: Retail Fashion and apparel Asia’s fashion and apparel market clothing spend will rise throughout growth will continue to lead global 2012-16, driven by growing personal Key findings growth through 2012-16. In 2012, disposable income and higher interest • The gap in demand for fashion nominal clothing market demand in in fashion apparel. Online apparel and apparel between Asia and Asia and Australasia, at US$199.49 retailing will become an important the West will widen billion, will continue to surpass market segment during the forecast substantially, with demand in demand in both Western Europe and period31. Asia growing 3.8% in 2013. North America and that gap will widen substantially during the forecast • India will be the star performer, In Hong Kong, demand in 2012 will period (see Fig 9). In 2012, demand in growing by 9.4% in 2012, with grow at 2.8%, on the higher base of Asia will rise 4.4%. That is lower than sales driven by the expanding 8.5% in 2011. Robust demand will an earlier forecast of 5.1%, partly population of young people, continue during the forecast period, because of a higher base created by rising awareness of with sales rising steadily through to 2011’s demand growth of 5.3% (higher international fashion and an 2016. Despite very high rents, foreign than earlier projections of 4.8%) and influx of foreign brands. China players will continue to enter the local partly a result of slower economic will follow behind with 7.9% apparel retailing market, both to tap growth in the region. growth. increasing local demand and to capitalise on the rising number • Fast fashion brands are Demand in China is forecast to grow at mainland-Chinese tourists shopping in expanding rapidly in Asia but 7.9% in 2012, lower than a previously Hong Kong32. face stiff local competition. expected 8.4%, given the slowing economy, high inflation and high prices. Still, consumer demand and Figure 8: Clothing: Market demand growth (% real change pa) Territory 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Asia and Australasia 1.9 5.3 5.3 4.4 3.8 4.5 4.8 5.1 China 10.5 8.5 7.8 7.9 7.5 8.8 8.4 8.1 Hong Kong -1.4 6.3 8.5 2.8 1.7 2.6 3.0 2.9 India 7.8 6.2 5.1 9.4 7.2 7.7 9.0 1.3 Japan -1.3 2.3 -0.2 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 Taiwan 0.4 3.6 3.0 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.0 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates. 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 15
  • 18. Section 1: Retail In India, demand for apparel in 2012 is In Japan, clothing demand will grow forecast to grow at 9.4%, against an only 1.0% in 2012, lower than an earlier estimate of 8.7%. Although high earlier forecast of 1.5%. Although inflation, rising prices and a slowing reconstruction spending will support economy may persist in the short term, limited economic growth in 2012, clothing sales will nevertheless rise sluggish wage growth will depress rapidly during the forecast period, consumer sentiment in 2012 and from US$7.38 billion in 2011, to through the forecast period. During US$13.52 billion in 2016, driven by a 2012-16, private consumption is growing population of young people, expected to rise by less than 1% a year rising awareness of international on average. However, clothing sales fashion, and an influx of foreign will continue to be the most important brands. Disposable income will treble category of retail sales (excluding food from US$1 billion in 2012 to US$3 and beverages) in 2012-16, despite billion in 2016. However, the market negligible growth in yen terms35. will remain extremely competitive, on proliferation of ready-to-wear apparel shops and as more foreign companies enter the Indian market33. Figure 9: Clothing: Market demand (nominal US$ million) Taiwan’s clothing market is performing 300,000 moderately. Demand growth is forecast at 1.1% in 2012, lower than an earlier projection of 3.9%. The global 250,000 economic slowdown in 2012 is expected to drag down the export- dependent island’s real GDP growth to 200,000 1.3% this year. However, demand will improve during the rest of the forecast Asia and period as GDP growth rebounds, 150,000 Australasia private consumption expands steadily and the inflow of Chinese tourists North 100,000 America grows34. Western 50,000 Europe 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Figure 10: Clothing: Market demand (nominal US$ million) Territory 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 China 35,370 41,173 48,893 56,444 64,333 74,563 85,480 98,038 Hong Kong 37,913 40,596 45,726 48,732 51,710 55,129 58,852 62,782 India 5,397 6,603 7,376 7,755 9,210 10,879 12,602 13,529 Japan 24,118 25,861 28,079 28,005 26,788 25,468 25,001 24,395 Taiwan 3,274 3,568 3,977 4,035 4,186 4,400 4,669 4,917 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Figures for 2012 onwards are forecasts. Prior years are actuals or estimates. 16 PwC
  • 19. Section 1: Retail Fast fashion expands aggressively Under pressure from poor performance in Western markets and rising input costs, numerous international fast fashion brands are hoping to cash in on Asia’s young demographic and rising affluence. The fast fashion industry relies on bulk production to bring affordably-priced fashion to market in quick cycles. Fast fashion’s ‘cheap chic’ approach plays well with Asia’s young, upwardly mobile customers who have fast-changing tastes and a hunger for brands but an eye on affordability. The world’s largest fast fashion retailer, Spain’s Inditex, owner of the Zara brand, and many of its competitors, such as Uniqlo of Japan and H&M of Sweden, have established themselves in Asia and are expanding aggressively. clothing retailer, has one store in Japan China, too, has strong home-grown Inditex has 5,527 stores around the and opened its first China store in May apparel brands. For example, world including 300 in China, where 2012. US retailer Forever 21 also Metersbonwe has over 3,000 it’s one of the most successful foreign opened its first stores in Hong Kong branches42 and a presence in the retailers. It expects to have 425 stores and Beijing in 201240. smallest of Chinese cities. According to across 50 Chinese cities by end-201236. Euromonitor, it is China’s third-largest However, these companies will face apparel brand behind Nike and local Japan’s Fast Retailing, which owns formidable competition from local sportswear brand Anta. Metersbonwe Uniqlo, already has 136 stores in players, who have the advantage of now plans to expand into London, Greater China and 181 in the rest of Asia’s long-standing strength in Paris, New York and Milan43. Anta had Asia. It now plans to add 1,000 new textiles, an understanding of local 7,807 Anta stores in China as of June stores in each of those markets over the tastes, years of local experience, 2012 and says it will continue to next 10 years, seeing great potential in established distribution networks and expand, though at a ‘slower’ pace of middle class consumers in China, an existing real estate bank. Hong 100 new stores in 201244. China’s Taiwan, Hong Kong, the ASEAN Kong, for example, has a strong set of Trendy International Group has 300 nations and India37. US fashion brand local apparel brands such as Giordano, directly owned stores and hundreds of Tommy Hilfiger plans to open 500 Baleno, Bossini, I.T and Esprit. These franchises for its four brands, including stores in India over the next five years companies will expand strongly on the its largest, Ochirly. JNBY, established through a local joint venture; it already Chinese mainland and in Southeast in 1994, runs more than 600 has 58 franchise stores and over 60 Asia in 2012-16, and in some cases also franchised stores across China45. shops-in-shops38. American retailer in EU markets. Hong Kong’s Li & Fung, Gap is targeting 20 new stores in Hong among the world’s biggest supply-chain Kong and mainland China by February management companies, is moving 2013, raising its store count there to into apparel retailing and has bought 4539. New companies are also joining several Western clothing retailers, the rush. Topshop, owned by the marketers and brands to market to Arcadia group, the UK’s largest Chinese customers41. 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 17
  • 20. Section 1: Retail Online retailing Key findings • Asia will lead the world in business-to-consumer e-commerce sales from 2013 onwards, accounting for a 41.4% share of the business by 2016. • Recognising the strategic importance of online retailing as a new distribution channel, traditional retailers are expanding their own online presence in Asia. • Luxury companies are overcoming their fears that online sales will compromise their high-end image. Luxury accessory maker Coach (US) launched its first official online store in China on Taobao Mall in December 2011. Online retailing will grow rapidly in Infrastructure growth will aid a swift Asia during 2012-16, aided by rise in Asian online retailing. increased broadband and mobile- According to industry intelligence phone penetration, the spread of provider eMarketer, in 2012 the smartphones and tablet computers, Asia-Pacific region will account for and improvements in payments and 31.1% of B2C e-commerce sales logistics infrastructure. Asian globally, second only to North countries are frantically increasing America’s 33.4% and higher than access to the internet and mobile Western Europe’s 26.2%. From 2013 phones. In 2011, China added 30 onwards, Asia will lead the world in million fixed-broadband subscriptions, such sales, with a 41.4% share by half the total subscriptions added 2016, when China’s slice of the pie will worldwide, while Singapore and the rise to 23.4%, from 9.9% in 201248. Republic of Korea had more mobile- broadband subscriptions than In 2012, the internet penetration rate inhabitants46. As of December 2011, in China is forecast to be 42.8 per 100 26.2% of Asia’s population had people49. According to Chinese internet access, accounting for 44.8% research firm Analysys International, of the world’s internet users47. 18 PwC
  • 21. Section 1: Retail China’s B2C e-commerce transactions India’s internet penetration is forecast Taiwan’s high internet penetration of grew 73% to RMB81.87 billion to be a low 10.6 subscribers per 100 80.4 subscribers per 100 people60 and (US$13 billion) in the first quarter of people in 2012, but its 129 million high smartphone usage will aid growth 2012, and are expected to reach users will represent the second-highest of its e-commerce market, which the RMB450 billion (US$72 billion) for all online population in Asia57. Swift Institute for Information Industry of 201250. US-based Boston Consulting growth in internet access, broadband expects to grow by 20% in 2012, after Group estimates that e-commerce sales services and mobile internet access growing by an estimated 25% in in China will account for 7.4% of total could rapidly change India’s online 201161. However, given Taiwan’s small retail sales by 201551. retail landscape. Meanwhile, online population, online sales growth will retailers in India are adopting concepts likely slow down as the market Hong Kong’s current high internet such as cash-on-delivery to overcome approaches saturation in the latter part penetration of 78 subscribers per 100 obstacles such as low usage of credit of the forecast period62. An obvious people in 201252, its densely packed cards. Overall, online retail revenues growth market for Taiwan’s population (which makes delivery of in India are projected to increase by e-commerce businesses is mainland goods more efficient) and the quick more than five times in the next four China, but many regulatory spread of smartphones make it a years, from an estimated US$1.6 restrictions on the integration of the promising prospect for online retail. billion in 2012 to US$8.8 billion in two markets remain in place. According to a survey from online 2016, according to Forrester payments firm Paypal, Hong Kong’s Research58. M-commerce may grow online shopping value reached US$1.9 strongly since mobile-phone usage is billion in 2011 and is expected to touch rising quicker than fixed internet US$2.5 billion by 201553. Offline access, while innovative offerings like retailers will still thrive since Hong mobile wallet payment services are Kong’s shoppers continue to enjoy also increasing. India had 893.84 physical shopping and searching for million mobile subscribers at end- good deals. December 2011, including 292 million in rural India, and a wireless Japan offers huge potential for online penetration of 74.15%. According to and mobile shopping. In 2012 it is the Internet and Mobile Association of forecast to have 82.8 internet India, India’s overall e-commerce connections per 100 people54 and a market grew 47% to around Rs460 dynamic mobile-telecommunications billion (US$9.2 billion) in 201159. The sector. In 2011 roughly 20% of online government’s recent announcement retailers’ sales were made on that it would further open the retail smartphones and m-commerce will sector to foreign investment did not continue to grow. While the largest include e-commerce. online retailers in Japan are general shopping sites like Rakuten, a local firm, and Amazon.jp, the local subsidiary of US-based Amazon, specialised online retailers are increasing in number and growing quickly. For example locondo.jp sells shoes and handbags55. According to Forrester Research, e-commerce sales in Japan will grow from US$63.9 billion in 2012 to US$97.6 billion in 201656. 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 19
  • 22. Section 1: Retail Q&A with John Lo, CFO & Senior Vice President, Tencent Platform, Online Games, etc.), Wireless users shopping information while mobile Value-added Services, Online Advertising payment facilitates the completion of the and e-Commerce transactions. The payment procedure on site. We have user-paid revenue model and high partnered with various offline merchants cash-generative nature of our internet and retailers to experiment with O2O business enabled us to weather the marketing opportunities. Recently, we have economic downturn in 2008/09 and also launched “QQ Buy” apps for iPhone maintain steady growth in both operating and Android phones to offer e-commerce and financial performance. We aim to services on mobile devices. As 3G further diversify our revenue base and infrastructure becomes more well- achieve long-term sustainable growth established and smartphone penetration through investment in our platforms, R&D increases further, we believe there is a huge and new initiatives. We are now in the early growth potential in mobile commerce. stage of developing our e-Commerce business, which accounted for 8% of our Tencent’s internet platforms have total revenue in Q2 of 2012. brought together the largest internet Established in 1998, Tencent community in China. What has been the provides a comprehensive range Our primary goal for e-commerce is to biggest factor in your success? build a consumer-oriented platform which of Internet and wireless value- delivers quality services and a Tencent has built a strong social added services. Through its various differentiated user experience to meet the infrastructure in China which offers a online platforms, including Instant changing needs and growing demands of diversified range of products from QQ IM our customers for rapid delivery, (instant messaging) to QQ Mail (email), Messaging QQ, QQ.com, the QQ competitive prices, better product choices social networks Qzone and Pengyou, social Game Platform, social networking and better after-sales services. These are media Tencent Microblog and smartphone- service Qzone and wireless portal, also the challenges that e-commerce based social communication platform companies have to address. We will Weixin. We believe our success stems from Tencent services the largest online continue to leverage our multiple platform our focus on user experience. Leveraging community in China and fulfills the advantages and deep understanding of our on our huge QQ IM user base (784 million user’s needs for communication, users’ needs to customise a differentiated monthly active user accounts as of Q3 of online shopping experience for customers. 2012), we are able to create a strong information, entertainment and community effect for our users. All these e-Commerce on the Internet. Tencent’s e-commerce site PaiPai has social communications services are closely numerous categories ranging from integrated with each other with one single There is a lot of concern about the sports to moms and babies to red login ID. Users can share their own social economic slowdown in China. What are packets. Which areas are seeing the graph and synchronise comments and your expectations for growth in the fastest growth? photo uploads across these platforms. Users coming year? can also enjoy unified experience across PC We are building a new e-commerce platform, and mobile terminals. The macroeconomic environment in China buy.qq.com, to host our B2C and small- and is challenging but we remain optimistic on medium-sized enterprise-to-consumer What impact is online communication the growth of the e-commerce market. (SME2C) marketplaces, lifestyle services (e.g. (interactive communities such as Currently, online shopping sales account hotel booking and ticketing) and offline-to- QQ.com, and social networking for around 5% of total retail spending in online (O2O) services. Paipai will focus on the services) having on consumer buying China, representing much room for growth consumer-to-consumer marketplace under decisions in China? Are consumer goods compared to other developed markets like the umbrella of buy.qq.com. We see strong companies prepared for this? the United States. In fact, the US has been growth in our overall e-commerce business across all product categories like 3C products From a merchant perspective, social experiencing a faster rate of growth for its (ComputerCommunicationsConsumer networks are a good platform to access online retail sales than offline sales during Electronic), and believe B2C business models potential customers and to enable precise the past decade. According to iResearch, can better address the increasing demands of user targeting and CRM (customer the average growth rate of China’s online online shoppers. Hence, in addition to the relationship management). At the same shopping market is expected to be around development of Paipai.com, we will focus on time, users are highly engaged in social 30% in the next 3-5 years. expanding our principal business and B2C networks and can share virally their The China e-commerce market is open platforms in order to capture the reviews on products and shopping growing exponentially. What is the growing demands in this area. experiences with their friends. Nowadays, biggest challenge for Tencent in keeping both online and offline retailers are up with this growth? How are you What are Tencent’s expectations for increasingly using social networking dealing with this challenge? growth in the mobile commerce market services (SNS) to build brand awareness in China? and user loyalty. Leveraging the success of Tencent has a diversified business model our SNS platforms, Tencent is also which is built upon our huge instant Mobile commerce is not only a natural partnering with brand advertisers and messaging user base and traffic. We extension from the desktop, it actually merchant partners to broaden access to generate revenue from four major presents more potential in terms of target customers for brand building and businesses, namely internet value-added business models and monetisation. For user loyalty campaigns. service (including Community and Open example, location-based services offer 20 PwC
  • 23. Section 1: Retail Traditional retailers move Foreign offline retailers are also recently launched Minitiao.com, an online reconsidering their past disregard for e-commerce website for Japanese and Recognising the strategic importance online Asian sales. In China, Wal-Mart South Korean goods including of online retailing as a new upped its stake in online grocery store cosmetics and apparel brands, as well distribution channel, traditional Yihaodian to a majority holding in as toys and dry goods67. retailers are expanding their own February 201265. In May 2012, American online presence in Asia. China’s largest retail giant Macy’s announced an Even luxury companies are overcoming domestic appliance retailer and alliance with local e-tailer VIP Stores, their fears that online sales will leading multi-channel retailer, Suning, owner of Jiapin.com and Omei.com, compromise their high-end image. derived around 4% of its 2011 both multi-brand luxury e-tailers. It is They have been alerted by the Asian revenues from Suning Yigou, its planning a dedicated section on Omei. success of online luxury stores, e-commerce business63. Many com in 2013. Macy’s has been selling including the US Gilt Groupe and traditional retailers across Asia are online to mainland Chinese consumers Brands4friends.jp in Japan, Hong now partnering with e-tailers in since June 2011, using fulfilment Kong’s Glamour Sales (operating in symbiotic relationships, increasing services from FiftyOne, a US company China and Japan), and excluzen.com sales without investing in a separate that helps retailers serve clients in and 99labels.com in India, which offer online business. For example, India’s foreign markets without investing in heavily-discounted luxury goods68. naaptol.com was set up in 2008 as a infrastructure66. Others, such as Luxury accessory-maker Coach (US) comparison website, but after 18 Banana Republic and Marks & Spencer, launched its first official online store in months without revenues, it tied up will now begin to deliver to Hong Kong China on Taobao Mall in a one-month with suppliers to advertise their (and some other Asian countries) from trial in December 201169, which products. It now generates business their home markets. recorded 3.5 million visitors but only worth Rs20 million (US$376,000) a limited sales. Coach is now reportedly day, earning commissions of 2-20% of Scores of Japanese and South Korean planning to launch its own Chinese sales from sellers. Amazon has also retailers, whose brands are extremely e-commerce platform by end-2012. In opened in India in its traditional popular in China, already use Chinese- March 2012, US-based luxury retailer format — as a portal through which to owned portals to sell directly to Neiman Marcus Group invested US$28 buy goods from numerous retailers mainland consumers. 360Buy, among million for a stake in Glamour Sales, its — called junglee.com64. China’s three largest online retailers, first international foray, and hopes to launch an online shopping website by end-2012 to enter the Chinese luxury market70. 2013 Outlook for the Retail and Consumer Products Sector in Asia 21
  • 24. Section 2: Consumer goods Section 2: Consumer goods Across Asia, economic growth is slowing, while food inflation remains worryingly high. These trends, coupled with high interest rates on consumer loans, mean that consumers are allocating their budgets more carefully and looking for value across categories. But underlying fundamentals—rising incomes and relatively strong growth—remain in place. Private consumption will continue to rise, feeding demand for everything from shampoo to luxury watches. As companies of all stripes continue their headlong expansions, modern retail infrastructure is improving quickly in many countries. For consumer goods companies, the good news is tempered by numerous challenges, from cut-throat competition to the need to serve widely different categories of customers to the daunting task of managing their enormous expansions. In response, companies are planning their expansions more judiciously, partnering with local players, better targeting customer groups, and exploring online sales and private labels to provide value. 22 PwC