Pew forum on religion aug 8 Frank newport, gallup presentation v.2 revised aug 12

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Spiritual News & Politics

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RISE OF THE
NONES: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
RELIGIOSITY OR CHANGE IN LABELING?
Preliminary Draft Presented at the forum “Religion Trends in the U.S.”, sponsored by
the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Washington, D.C.
Frank Newport, Ph.D.
Gallup
August 8, 2013

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
CHANGE IN “NONES”: 2008 TO 2012
Nones All Other Sample Size
2008 14.60% 85.40% 311,591
2012 17.80% 82.20% 353,571
Change +3. 2% -3.2%
Gallup Daily Tracking

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
CHANGE IN FOUR INDICATORS OF RELIGIOSITY:
2008 TO 2012
14.60%
34.20%
45.40%
30.40%
17.80%
34.40%
46.10%
31.00%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Nones
Religion Not Important in Daily Life
Seldom/Never Attend Religious Services
Overall Religiosity: Unreligious
2012 2008
+3.2%
Gallup Daily Tracking

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON SELF-REPORTED
IMPORTANCE OF RELIGION: 2008 TO 2012
% Nones
Religion
Important
Religion Not
Important
2008 4.00% 34.60%
2012 4.90% 41.90%
Change 0.90% 7.30%
Gallup Daily Tracking

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
CHANGE IN SELF-REPORTED IMPORTANCE OF
RELIGION: 2008 AND 2012
Religion Important
Yes No DK/Refused
2008 65.30% 34.20% 0.50%
2012 65.10% 34.40% 0.50%
Gallup Daily Tracking

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.
% Nones
At least
once a
week
Almost
every week
About once
a month
Seldom Never
2008 2.70% 2.80% 5.20% 13.40% 46.60%
2012 3.50% 3.60% 6.70% 15.80% 53.60%
Change 0.80% 0.80% 1.50% 2.40% 7.00%
7
CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON RELIGIOUS
SERVICE ATTENDANCE: 2008 TO 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
CHANGE IN RELIGIOUS SERVICE ATTENDANCE:
2008 AND 2012
At least
once a week
Almost
every week
About once
a month
Seldom Never
2008 33.70% 8.40% 11.70% 25.70% 19.80%
2012 32.60% 8.40% 11.70% 24.70% 21.30%
Gallup Daily Tracking

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
CHANGE IN NONES, BASED ON RELIGIOSITY
INDEX: 2008 TO 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking
% Nones
Very Religious
Americans
Moderately
Religious
American
Unreligious
Americans
2008 2.40% 6.90% 38.00%
2012 3.10% 8.40% 45.50%
Change 0.70% 1.50% 7.50%

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
CHANGE IN RELIGIOSITY INDEX: 2008 AND 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking
% Nones
Very Religious
Americans
Moderately
Religious
American
Unreligious
Americans
2008 40.90% 28.70% 30.40%
2012 40.10% 28.90% 31.00%

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
CHANGE IN RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION:
2008 TO 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking
Protestant
/Other
Christian
Catholic Mormon Jewish Muslim
Other
non-
Christian
religion
Nones
2008 54.10% 24.30% 1.70% 1.80% 0.40% 3.10% 14.60%
2012 51.90% 23.30% 2.10% 1.70% 0.60% 2.60% 17.80%
Change -2.20% -1.00% 0.40% -0.10% 0.20% -0.50% 3.20%

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
FOUR MEASURES OF RELIGIOSITY
BY AGE: 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
Nones Unreligious Religion Not Important Seldom/Never Attend

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
NONES BY AGE: 2008 AND 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87
2008 2012

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
INCREASE FROM 2008 TO 2012 IN % NONES,
BY AGE
Gallup Daily Tracking
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
18 2022242628303234363840424446485052 54 5658606264666870 72 74 76 788082848688

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION BY AGE: 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87
Protestant/Other Christian Catholic Nones

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
EACH DOT REPRESENTS ONE AGE POINT
NONES AND PROTESTANTS: 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
%Nones
% Protestant

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
EACH DOT REPRESENTS ONE AGE POINT
NONES AND CATHOLICS
Gallup Daily Tracking
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
%Nones
% Catholic

Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
For further information, please contact:
Dr. Frank Newport
Gallup, Inc.
502 Carnegie Center, Suite 300
Princeton, NJ 08540
609 924 9600
Frank_newport@gallup.com
Details on Gallup Tracking methodology are available here:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/163631/gallup-daily-tracking-
methodology.aspx

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