Cloud computing

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University of Hertfordshire

What is cloud computing, what does it offer, and how come it is secure?

Technologie Business

Ahead
in
The
Cloud
Peter
Cochrane

ca-global.org COCHRANE
cochrane.org.uk a s s o c i a t e s

Is it real,
or is it a
dream ?

What is Cloud Computing ?

The Web the way itit wasmeant to be !
“The Web the way was meant to be !”

The
Cloud
-‐
what
is
isn’t
!

 A cure-all solution
 A universal panacea
 A return to the mainframe
 Obviously advantages in all cases!

Poten4ally
:cking
all
the
boxes!

Social
Inclusion ✔

Inherently
Green ✔
Reduces
Waste ✔

Socially
Beneﬁcial ✔

Cloud
Mythology!!
Cloud
Mythology
 Imposes performance penalties over PCs
 Security substantially downgraded
 Needs large scale investment
 Just the same as Grids
 Just a fad!

The
mindset
change!
 Networking will by-pass hoarding
 Optimise everything for sharing
 Make everything a resource
 Let users decide
 Inﬂuence is more important than power

Creativity is now
at the edge, out
of control, open,
& distributed...

~20 years of living on line…..

…and now entering the workforce…

- Any platform

- Any OS

- Any Application

- An entirely different expectation!

And IT Dept’s then
do this to them…

Time
and
technology
–
waits
for
no
man!

We
don’t
do
this
any
more

We
shouldn’t
be
doing
this!

If it is real
it changes
everything…

Provisioning/

Cost/desk/year Company
Mode
Support
Cycle

Internalized
£1.5
-‐
2.5k 9
–
18
months
100%
DIY

Outsourced
£500
–
900
9
–
18
months

Google
£50 9
–
18
minutes
Desk
Top

IT Dept’s can
no longer cope
...or indeed...
compete !

A
general
observa4on
!

We are rewarding suppliers who give us more freedom
– not less!

Get
rid
of
all
this
–
it
ain’t
core!
Others
can
do
it
far
beDer
and
far
cheaper
–

achieving
greater
reliability,
resilience
and
QoS

Application Operations
Services Services
Network Security Authentication Ordering
Storage Sharing Availability Provisioning
Operating System Integration Monitoring Licensing
Database Customization Patch Mgmt Billing
App Server Web Services Upgrades Renewal
Web Server API Backup Marketing
Data Center Multi-Language NOC Sales
Disaster Recovery Multi-Currency Maintenance Support
Workflow Desk Top Support
Analytics
Multi-Device
Messaging
Search

Spot the problem...

~9 months Tech Cycle

~2.5 years Management Cycle

~5 years People Cycle

2 - 10 years Procurement Cycle

Some
headlines
you
will
never
see....

-‐
Corporate
apps
now
seen
as
cool
-‐
Workers
love
their
IT
Dept
-‐
Industry
the
prime
source
of
new
apps
-‐
CEOs
vote
TwiVer
their

1
business
tool

Here are the keys:
- Reliability
- Resilience
- Connectivity
- Efﬁciency
- Energy
- Openness
- Mobility
- Two-way Bandwidth

We
are
good
at
building
ultra-‐reliable

systems
from
dirt
cheap
components!

Unfortunately
the
same
cannot
be
said
for
soXware
&
security....yet!

And
just
one
more
way
of
looking

at
The
Cloud…

Henry
Ford
gets
into
IT
?

Thank You

ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s

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Mehr von University of Hertfordshire

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University of Hertfordshire

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University of Hertfordshire

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University of Hertfordshire

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University of Hertfordshire

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Resurgence of Technology Driven Change

University of Hertfordshire

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Society 5.0: A Vital Symbiosis

Society 5.0: A Vital Symbiosis

Society 5.0: A Vital Symbiosis

University of Hertfordshire

In a world of accelerating innovation and increasingly complex digital services, applications, appliances, and devices, it seems unreasonable to expect customers to understand and maintain their own cyber security. We are way past the point where even the well educated can cope with the compounded complexity of an ‘on-line-life’. The reality is, today's products and services are incomplete and sport wholly inadequate cyber defence applications. Perhaps the single biggest problem is that defenders have never been professional attackers - and they don’t share the same level of thinking and deviousness, or indeed, the inventiveness of their enemies. Apart from an education embracing the attack techniques, and in some cases, engaging in war games, the defenders remain on the back foot However, there a number of new, an potentially significant, approaches yet to be addressed, and we care to look at the problem from a new direction. In the maintenance of high-tech equipment and systems across many industries, identifiable precursors are employed to flag impending outages and failures. This realisation prompted a series of experiments to see if it was possible to presage pending cyber attacks. And indeed it was found to be the case! In this presentation we give an overview of our early experimental and observational results, long with our current thinking spanning networks through to individual hackers, and inside actors.

Cyber Portents and Precursors

Cyber Portents and Precursors

Cyber Portents and Precursors

University of Hertfordshire

When people are exposed to the new for the first time their reaction, quite rightly, is generally one of caution and perhaps a degree of suspicion. And, when that ‘new born’ is a novel technology, reactions can quickly become amplified and biased toward the dystopian by the sensationalism of media and mis-information of social networks. In this modern era I think we can also safely assume that Hollywood has more than a ‘bit part’ in nurturing extreme reactions with movies such as Terminator, AI and Ex-Machina. Our purpose here is to dispel the modern myth that technology is, or can be, inherently evil and a direct threat to humanity. We do so by positing three basic axioms: “Without technology we would know and understand almost nothing” “The greatest threat to humanity is humanity” “If technology progress and societal advance stall, then civilisations collapse” Having briefly establishing these in the context of our wider history, we focus on the Industrial Revolutions and their beneficial upside and consequential negatives. We then move on to examine Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Artificial Life, and Quantum Computing in the context of our current needs and realising sustainable futures, and the survival of our civilisation.

Technology Overlords Or A Symbiosis ?

Technology Overlords Or A Symbiosis ?

Technology Overlords Or A Symbiosis ?

University of Hertfordshire

Connecting Everything Vital to Sustainability Mobile network evolution has followed a reasonably predictable path almost entirely focused on the needs of human communication. The transition from 1 to 2G was dictated by the economics of reliability, performance, and scale, whilst 3, 4, and 5G saw the transition to mobile computing with full internet access, AI and an ever-expanding plethora of applications. But 5G could be the end of the line as cell-site energy demands have become excessive at ~10kW. Midway between the migration from 4G to 5G, M2M and the IoT machines overtook the human population of 8Bn people with near (estimated) 20Bn devices. Current IoT growth rates suggest a 40 - 60Bn population by 2030 to 2050. However, we present evidence that it could be far more ~ 1,000Bn ‘Things’. This is based on the observation of the number of IoT components populating modern vehicles, homes, offices, factories and plants, along with smart ‘human implants’ and ‘smart bolts’ plus the instrumentation of civil; structures. The bold assumption that 5G would be a dominant player in the IoT is now patently one of naivety and the world has become far more complex with over 10 wireless standards currently in use. So, this poses the question; will 6G rise to the challenge? We see this as highly unlikely as the diversity of need is extremely broad, and we propose that it could be the end of tower based networks for a lot of applications. A migration to mesh-nets, UWB and (Hyper Wide Band) for the IoT at frequencies above 100GHz seems the most obvious engineering choice as it allows for far simpler designs with extremely low power at sub $0.01/device cost. 5G is already on the margins of being sustainable, and a ‘more-of-the-same’ thinking 6G can lonely be far worse!

THE FUTURE OF MOBILE NETWORKS

THE FUTURE OF MOBILE NETWORKS

THE FUTURE OF MOBILE NETWORKS

University of Hertfordshire

Seventy years on from AI appearing on the public scene and all the optimistic projections have been largely overtaken with systems outgunning humans at all board, card and computer games including Chess, Poker and GO. Of course; general knowledge, medical diagnosis, genetics and proteomics, image and pattern recognition are now all firmly in the grasp of AI. Interestingly, AI is treading a similar path to computing in that it began with single purpose/task machines that could only deal with a company payroll calculations or banking transactions and nothing more! General purpose computing emerged over further decades to give us the PCs and devices we now enjoy. So, AI currently runs as task specific applications on these general purpose platforms, and no doubt, general purpose AI will also become tractable in a few decades too! Recent progress has promoted a deal of debate and discussion along with hundreds of published papers and definitions that attempt to characterise biological and artificial intelligence. But they all suffer the same futility and fail! Without reference to any formal characterisation, all discussion and debate remains relatively meaningless. Somewhat ironically, it was the defence industry that triggered the analysis work here. Two of key steps to success were: the abandonment of all performance comparisons between biological and machine entities; and the avoidance of using the human brain as some ‘golden’ intelligence reference. This presentation is suitable for professionals and public alike, and comes fully illustrated by high quality graphics, animations and movies. Inevitably, it contains (engineering) mathematics that non-practitioners will have to take on trust, whilst professionals may wish challenge on the basis that the focus on getting a solution rather than the purity of the process!

Quantifying Machine Intelligence Mathematically

Quantifying Machine Intelligence Mathematically

Quantifying Machine Intelligence Mathematically

University of Hertfordshire

For millennia we have crafted artifacts from bulk materials that we have progressively refined to produce ever more precision tools and products. Latterly, we have crossed a critical threshold where our abilities now eclipse Mother Nature. For example; the smallest transistors in production today have feature sizes down to 2nm which is smaller than a biological virus ~20 - 200nm. The implications for ITC, AI, Robotics, and Production are ever more profound as we approach, and most likely undercut, the scale of the atom ~ 0.1-0.4nm. Not only does this open the door to new technologies, it sees new and remarkable capabilities. So, in this presentation we look at this new Tech Horizon spanning robotics to quantum computing and sensory technologies, and how they will help us realise sustainable futures germane to Industry 4.0, 5.0, and beyond.

Technologies That Will Change Everything

Technologies That Will Change Everything

Technologies That Will Change Everything

University of Hertfordshire

We are engaged in a war the like of which we have never seen or experienced before. Our enemies are invisible and relentless; with globally dispersed forces working at all levels and in all sectors of our societies. They are better organised, resourced, motivated, and adaptive than any of our organisations or institutions, and they are winning. This war is also one of paradox! “The cost to many nations is now on a par with their GDP” “No previous war has seen so many suffer so much to (almost) never retaliate” “We are up against attackers who operate as a virtual (ghost-like) guerrilla army” “No state can defend its population and organisations, and they stand alone - isolated and exposed” “A real army/defence force would rehearse and play all day and very occasionally engage in warfare. We, on the other hand, are at war every day but never play, war-game, or anticipate new forms of attack” To turn this situation around we need to understand our enemies and adopt their tactics and tools as a part of our defence strategy. We also have to be united, and organised so the no one, and no organisation, stands alone. We also have to engage in sharing attack data, experiences and solutions. All this has to be supported by wargaming, and anticipatory solutions creation. The good news is; we have better, and more, people, machines, networks, facilities, and expertise than our enemies. All it requires is the embracing of advanced R&D, leadership, sharing, and orchestration on a global scale.

Cyber Security - Thinking Like The Enemy

Cyber Security - Thinking Like The Enemy

Cyber Security - Thinking Like The Enemy

University of Hertfordshire

In 2015/16 a number of bodies/nations set about defining societies they would aspire to in the near future. Each vision document similarly described some idealistic, egalitarian, super-smart, human centred, state providing a near uniformity of living conditions, and opportunity. At the same time, each society would be free of adversity, with economic development guided by ecological and human need. Of course, economic growth was defined to continue in line with the past. Very nice, but a product of old linear thinking and modelling! It is now approaching 2022 and in the past 5/7 years our base silicon technology has advanced to enjoy a >30 fold increase in computing power. Our top end mobile devices would now challenge a super computer of 1996/7 era, whist AI systems now pervade our homes, offices, vehicles, professions and all our on-line services. At the same time, information overload has started to rival some medical conditions! All of this has also been compounded by two years of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions that have seen the normalisation of social isolation, limited travel, working and eduction from home, virtualised medicine and care, support services, shopping and meetings. In turn, this has resulted in empty offices, towns and cities. Concurently, climate change, global warming, pollution, finite resources, a stressed planetary system, and social unrest have suddenly become urgent issues. Against this backdrop it really seems to be time to revisit those Society 5.0 Visions and the limited linear thinking that contrived them! In this presentation we examine many of the core parameters and assumptions to highlight existing, or soon to be realised, solutions and remedies. In doing so, a different picture of Society 5.0 emerges.

Society 5.0 Redefined

Society 5.0 Redefined

Society 5.0 Redefined

University of Hertfordshire

The biggest force for social change since the first industrial revolution has been adjusting to, and taking advantage of, the new and accelerating capabilities of our advancing technologies. And in our entire history, the dominant technology driver has been silicon-based electronics. It has prompted revolutions in Computing, Telecoms, Automation, AI, and Robotics that radically changed the human condition. Today, that same exponential revolution is accelerating us into Industry 4.0 and onto Industry 5.0. The consequential transformation of medicine, industrial design and production, farming, food, processing, supply and demand has seen living standards improve and life expectancy widen. Many of our institutions have also seen tech-driven transformations in line with industry. If there has been a down-side to this progression, it has been our inability to transform the workforce ahead of new demands. Unemployment has persisted whilst reeducation and retraining have been on the back foot, whilst, the net creation of new jobs has always exceeded the demise of the old. As a result, leading countries in the first world now have labour shortages at all levels right across the spectrum. Recently, COVID-19 has demonstrated that we have the technology and we can rapidly reorganise and change society if we have to. So in this presentation, we examine ‘the force functions’ and changes engineered to date, and then peer over the horizon to sample what is to come in terms of technologies and working practices…

The Future WorkScape

The Future WorkScape

The Future WorkScape

University of Hertfordshire

Throughout my career in science, engineering and management I attended numerous meeting where many misconceptions and misinterpretations were evident. Perhaps the most expansive and expensive were the probabilities assumed and calculated for system reliability and/or product manufacturing quality. Eventually, I began to refer to this as ‘five nines’ problem! Not fully understanding the origins of the reliability measures, it is so easy to demand a 99.999% instead of 99.99% up time for an electronic system. What could be easier? At face value it appears to be trivial and straightforward! Likewise, taking a 5s manufacturing plant up to a 6s defect level turns out to be a monumental engineering challenge! And at the time of writing 6s has never been achieved! It appears that to few engineering and management courses address this topic, and if they do, it is as a scant reference of insufficient depth. So, we see far too many students understand in any depth, if at all! And when they become managers they just ‘don’t get it’! This presentation and the associated lecture have been specifically created to address this problem with relevance to BSc, BA, MSc and MBA students along with anyone needing a refresher or explicit introduction to the topic. In addition to the graphics, animations and movies, the lecture is also littered with practical examples and the outcomes of case studies.

Engineering Reliability and Resilience

Engineering Reliability and Resilience

Engineering Reliability and Resilience

University of Hertfordshire

Industries 1.0, 2.0 (and most of) 3.0, saw manufacturing and construction using natural materials readily extracted, refined, amalgamated, machined, and molded. In general, these exhibited fixed mechanical, electrical, and chemical properties. However, the latter stages of Industry 3.0 embraced synthetics exhibiting superior properties to afford new degrees of freedom in the design of structures and products. Today Industry 4.0 sees further advances with metamaterials, dynamic coatings, controllable properties, and additive manufacturing. Embedded smarts have also made communication between components, products and structures possible under the guise of the IoT. Adaptable materials with a degree of self-repair are also opening the door to further freedoms and less material use. In combination, these represent a big step toward sustainable societies with highly efficient ReUse, RePurposing, and Recycling (3R). At the leading edge, we are now realising active surfaces that can reflect, absorb, or amplify wireless signals, offer programmable colour, and integral energy storage. But amongst a growing list of possibilities, it is integral sensing & communication that may define this new era. In this presentation, we look at these advances in the context of smart design, cities & societies.

Smart Materials and Structures

Smart Materials and Structures

Smart Materials and Structures

University of Hertfordshire

We are engaged in an exponentially growing cyber war that we are visibly losing. Within the next 3 years it has been estimated that the global cost will equal, or overtake, the UK GDP, and it is clear that our defences are inadequate and often ineffective. Malware and ransomer-ware continue to extort more money, and cause damage and inconvenience to individuals, organisations and society, whilst hacker groups, criminals and rogue states continue to innovate and maintain their advantage. At the same time, our defences are subverted and rendered ineffective as we operate in a reactive and prescriptive, after the fact, mode with no foresight or anticipation. In any war it is essential to know and understand as much about the enemy as possible, it is also necessary to establish the truth and validity of any situation or development. Doing this in the cyber domain is orders of magnitude more difficult than the real world, but some of the relevant tools are now available or at an advanced stage of development. For example; fully automated fact checkers and truth engines have been demonstrated, whilst situational awareness technologies are commercially available. However, what is missing is some level of context assessment on a continual basis. Without this we will continue to be ‘blind-sided’ by the actions and developments of the attackers as they maintain their element of surprise along every line of innovation. What do we need? In short ; a Context Engine that continually monitors networks, servers, routers, machines, devices and people for anomalous behaviours that flag pending attacks as behavioural deviations that are generally easy to detect. In the case of attacker groups we have observed precursor events and trends in network activity days ahead of some big offensive. However, this requires a shift in the defenders thinking and operations away for the reactive and short term, to the long term continual monitoring, data collection and analysis in order to establish threat assessments on a real time. The behavioural analysis of people, networks and ITC, is at the core of our ‘Context Engine’ solution which completes the triangle of: Truth; Situation; Context Awareness to provide defenders with a fuller and transformative picture. Most of the known precursor elements of this undertaken have been studied in some depth, with some behavioural elements identified on real networks and some physical situations. The unknown can only add more accuracy!

TRUTH, SITUATION, & CONTEXT AWARENESS

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Cloud computing

1. Ahead in The Cloud Peter Cochrane ca-global.org COCHRANE cochrane.org.uk a s s o c i a t e s

2. Is it real, or is it a dream ?

3. What is Cloud Computing ? The Web the way itit wasmeant to be ! “The Web the way was meant to be !”

4. The Cloud -‐ what is isn’t !  A cure-all solution  A universal panacea  A return to the mainframe  Obviously advantages in all cases!

5. Poten4ally :cking all the boxes! Social Inclusion ✔ Inherently Green ✔ Reduces Waste ✔ Socially Beneﬁcial ✔

6. Cloud Mythology!! Cloud Mythology  Imposes performance penalties over PCs  Security substantially downgraded  Needs large scale investment  Just the same as Grids  Just a fad!

7. The mindset change!  Networking will by-pass hoarding  Optimise everything for sharing  Make everything a resource  Let users decide  Inﬂuence is more important than power

8. Creativity is now at the edge, out of control, open, & distributed...

9. ~20 years of living on line….. …and now entering the workforce… - Any platform - Any OS - Any Application - An entirely different expectation!

10. And IT Dept’s then do this to them…

11. Time and technology – waits for no man! We don’t do this any more We shouldn’t be doing this!

12. If it is real it changes everything…

13. Provisioning/ Cost/desk/year Company Mode Support Cycle Internalized £1.5 -‐ 2.5k 9 – 18 months 100% DIY Outsourced £500 – 900 9 – 18 months Google £50 9 – 18 minutes Desk Top

14. IT Dept’s can no longer cope ...or indeed... compete !

15. A general observa4on ! We are rewarding suppliers who give us more freedom – not less!

16. Get rid of all this – it ain’t core! Others can do it far beDer and far cheaper – achieving greater reliability, resilience and QoS Application Operations Services Services Network Security Authentication Ordering Storage Sharing Availability Provisioning Operating System Integration Monitoring Licensing Database Customization Patch Mgmt Billing App Server Web Services Upgrades Renewal Web Server API Backup Marketing Data Center Multi-Language NOC Sales Disaster Recovery Multi-Currency Maintenance Support Workflow Desk Top Support Analytics Multi-Device Messaging Search

17. Spot the problem... ~9 months Tech Cycle ~2.5 years Management Cycle ~5 years People Cycle 2 - 10 years Procurement Cycle

18. Some headlines you will never see.... -‐ Corporate apps now seen as cool -‐ Workers love their IT Dept -‐ Industry the prime source of new apps -‐ CEOs vote TwiVer their 1 business tool

19. Here are the keys: - Reliability - Resilience - Connectivity - Efﬁciency - Energy - Openness - Mobility - Two-way Bandwidth

20. We are good at building ultra-‐reliable systems from dirt cheap components! Unfortunately the same cannot be said for soXware & security....yet!

21. And just one more way of looking at The Cloud…

22. Henry Ford gets into IT ?

23. Thank You ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s