The document discusses the proposed Pacific NorthWest LNG project in British Columbia and whether it can meet Canada's climate commitments. It finds that as proposed, the project would be one of the largest carbon polluters in Canada. Additionally, the project's emissions are higher than necessary and British Columbia is not on track to meet its climate targets. The document concludes that for these reasons, the project should not be approved unless BC implements policies like the Climate Leadership Team's recommendations to reduce emissions or the federal government regulates to limit the project's carbon pollution.

1. Pacific NorthWest LNG
Can one of Canada’s largest carbon polluters
pass the climate test?
Matt Horne and Erin Flanagan
Pembina Institute
May 2, 2016

2. 2 Photo by Brian Hunt

3. Why does the project matter?
3
• As proposed, PNW LNG (including its associated
upstream activities) would be among the largest
carbon polluters in Canada.
Source: CEAA draft report and Canada’s facility level GHG inventory

4. A climate test for PNW LNG
4
• The federal government should ask two
questions:
1. Is B.C. on track to meet its climate targets?
2. Is carbon pollution from the project being minimized?
• The project should not proceed if the answer to
either question is no.
• The answer to both questions is currently no.

5. Is B.C. on track to meet its
climate targets?
No.
5

6. B.C.’s emissions projected to rise
6
• B.C. could get back on track, but has not implemented
the Climate Leadership Team recommendations
Source: BC Climate Leadership Team Recommendations, 2015

7. Proposed LNG exceeds B.C. target
7
• Carbon pollution from three leading LNG proposals
could be reduced by more than 50% under the
Climate Leadership Team recommendations.
Source: Environmental Assessment documentation and Pembina calculations

8. Relevant CLT recommendations
8
Recommendations to B.C. government Implemented?
Increase the carbon tax by $10/tonne/year
starting in 2018 (announce in 2016)
No
Expand carbon tax coverage in 2021 No
Develop mechanisms to protect emissions-
intensive, trade-exposed sectors
No
Set a goal of reducing methane by 40% within 5
years backed by regulations and multi-
stakeholder process
No, but premier committed
to align with Alberta at
GLOBE conference
Direct BC Hydro to develop an electrification
strategy for LNG and upstream gas
No

9. Is the carbon pollution
from Pacific NorthWest
LNG being minimized?
No.
9

10. Unnecessarily high emissions
10
• There are opportunities at the LNG terminal and
upstream to reduce carbon pollution.
LNG terminal Upstream gas
More efficient drives for liquefaction Methane controls
Renewable energy for auxiliary power Electrification
Electric drives Carbon capture (or low-carbon gas)

11. Unnecessarily high emissions
11 Source: CEAA reports and Pembina calculations using B.C. shale gas scenario tool

12. Tools to limit project emissions
12
• The federal government has four options to
limit carbon pollution from the project:
1. Rejecting the project
2. Setting environmental conditions
3. Implementing new federal climate policy (e.g.
methane regulations)
4. Encouraging B.C. to implement the Climate
Leadership Team recommendations

13. 13
What happens with the LNG?
Does it displace coal?
Or gas or renewables?
Does it matter?
Photo by Torbein Rønning on Flickr

14. The argument that LNG will displace coal is flawed:
LNG is not a climate solution
14
Source: World Energy Outlook, 2015
• The world needs
less gas if we’re
going to avoid
dangerous climate
change.
• Each country is
responsible for
meeting their own
climate targets.

15. Summary
15
• Pacific NorthWest LNG (and its associated upstream activities)
would be among the largest carbon polluters in Canada.
• As proposed, the project should not be approved because:
 The project does not fit within a plan for B.C. to meet its targets.
 The project’s emissions are much higher than necessary.
• For B.C. to have a plan to meet its climate targets, the provincial
government will need to implement the Climate Leadership Team
recommendations.
• The federal government can also use the regulatory process and
federal policy to limit emissions from the project.
• Accounting for the emissions in Asia from LNG exports would not
change these conclusions.

16. Thank you
Matt Horne
phone: 778.235.1476 email: matth@pembina.org twitter: @HorneMatt