2. 5 days5 days until
November 2nd
2010 General Election
-----------------------------------------
3. “It would be significant if Scott
Brown got over 40 percent of
the vote”
December 25, 2009 from a major DC based pundit
“It would be significant if Scott
Brown got over 40 percent of
the vote”
December 25, 2009 from a major DC based pundit
4. Lots of Drama but Fundamentals
Drive Outcomes
THE FUNDAMENTALS –
Party Identification and the Nature of
the Times
1. Turnout
2. Loyalty
3. Independent Votes
5. US: Party ID by Vote for President in 2008
National Exit Poll
6. 2010 Elections
National Trends and local factors influence
1. Turnout
2. Loyalty
3. Independent Votes
Individual Races
• US House - 435 seats
• US Senate – 36 Seats
• Governorships – 37 states
• State Legislatures
7. Incumbent Party Historical Trends in Midterm Elections
This is invisible
Year Senate House
1982 +1 -26
1986 -8 -5
1990 -1 -8
1994 -9 -54
1998 0 +4
2002 +2 +2
2006 -6 -30
8. US: Party ID All Adults
http://sas-
origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces
/Production/Cms/POLL/b8scyp6bruqgez4snjxqdg.gif
9. PARTY ID BY LIKELY VOTERS
Democracy Corps Survey
10. Independent voters in three recent contests
Race Democrat Republican
Virginia Gov.
(McDonnell-R v. Deeds-D)
33% 66%
New Jersey Gov.
(Christie-R v. Corzine-D)
30% 60%
Massachusetts Sen.
(Brown-R v. Coakley-D)
32% 61%
10
•Buoyed by independents Obama was the 1st
DEM to win VA since 1964
•Chritie is 1st
GOP Governor in NJ in 12 years
•Brown is 1st
Republican to win a Mass. Senate seat since 1972
15. United States House of Representatives
GOP Needs 39 for Control of House
This is invisible
•91 Toss-up or Lean Seats currently held by
Democrats
•9 Toss-up or Lean Seats currently held by
Republicans
16. Battle for the US House
16
Real Clear Politics on this map is projecting based on current polling that
Democrats have 179 seats, Republicans have 213 seats and 43 toss-
up seats will determine control. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
17. Battle for the US Senate
17
Real Clear Politics on this map is projecting based on current polling that
Democrats have 48 seats, Republicans have 45 seats and 7 toss-up
seats will determine control. Republicans need 51 seats for
control/Democrats need 50 with VP Biden breaking the tie.
18. The Spin
Republicans say…. Open your eyes
1Enthusiasm gap
2Economy still sputtering
3Wrong track
4Independents breaking GOP
Democrats were saying ……remain calm
1Party id advantage
2Health care got done
3Turn to Wall Street
4Economy will start to turn
5NY 23
6Will be well resourced and outspend Republican
Now saying – get to run against Republicans…….
