Presented to the Forum on the Future of Education, November 2008, Bekasovo, Russia

1. What should
we teach to first-graders
so they will thank us?
CLASS 2020:
Pavel Luksha
pavel.luksha@gmail.com
Presented to the Forum
the Future of Educati
November 2
Bekasovo, Ru

2. School: A Weak Link
in the Russian Society
• School system is one of the most
undervalued institutions by the Russian
society and the government
• Poor quality of existing school system
and relative under-investment in
education will lead to Russia’s strategic
decline in the 21st century.
• The success of individuals who start
their formal education now will only be
possible if radical transformation of
education occurs

3. Problems of the Modern School
• Poor quality / obsolescence of
education programs
• Poor quality / lack of education
facilities
• Poor quality of teacher preparation
and professional development
• Poor quality of student interaction
“School for Life”, “School of Life”
OR “School AGAINST Life”?

4. Why So: The Path Dependency
• The USSR Legacy
– The model of ‘sieged fortress’: ‘the best in the world’
education system supported primarily supported the
defence industry complex
– The isolationism policy in science and culture: locally
knowledgeable, globally ignorant
– Bureaucracy (!)
• The degradation of the social basis in 1990-2000s
– The erosion of high quality human resources +
degradation of teacher professional education &
development system
– The absence of requests from the society and the
government
– Resources are provided to schools on the‘residual’
basis

5. And Meanwhile…
Country territories proportional to expenditures on education
Source: University of Sheffield

6. And Meanwhile…
Source: (Kurzweil, 2008)

7. And Meanwhile…

8. ‘Catching Up’ Doesn’t Work
• School education in Russia is
strategically degraded in terms
of ideology and practice
• Recent educational reforms
(EGE*) are ‘preparations for
the last war”
• Increased financing doesn’t
solve the problem (the limited
‘absorbing capacity’ of
institutions)
* EGE = Unified State Examination (simalar to SAT)

9. The Future is Already Here:
Class-2020
• Will become
economically and
politically active by 2025
• Will shape the mid-21st
century world
• Will go to school in 2008
QUESTION: What should be taught to these
first graders so they will thank us?

10. Targeting the Future
• When the hockey
player Wayne Gretzky
was asked: “How do
you play so fast?” he
answered: “I skate to
where the puck is
going to be, not where
it has been.”

11. Education Pragmatics
School 2008-2020 Society 2025
Demands:
- economy
- science / technology
- culture / arts
- government
?
Demands for today’s education system
are shaped in the future

12. What Do We Know about the Future:
Some of the Trends
• Globalization
• Asia (!)
• Ultrafast change of
technologies
• Hyper-competition
• Internet
• Social self-organization

13. Economy 2025
• Global competition of labor force and
producers
• Replacement of traditional natural
resource economies by environmentally
sustainable technologies (oil&gas will
count less and less)
• Further increased significance of
intellectual and creative jobs, flexibility
and re-learning ability
The high quality human capital will be the
only sustainable competitive advantage of any
country!

14. Informational Environment 2025
• Digitalization of intellectual and
cultural human heritage
• Constantly amended shared
knowledge libraries (wiki-
technologies)
• Development of virtual
communication environments
• Distributed work environments
with virtual presence
• Integrated ‘computer-human’
system (‘computer
dissappearance’)
• Internet of Things!
Tendencies in Education
•“Module” learning
•Continuous learning all
lifetime
•On-line education (eLearning)
as the main learning form:
•virtual learning environment
(virtual boards, classrooms,
exhibits…)
•virtual learning groups
•“distributed” schools
Source: Russia ICT Foresight 2007

15. Hyper-competition in Business:
Current Dynamics
• Fortune 500 of 1994 observed in 2004
– 153 companies went bankrupt, 130 companies have
been reorganized (and changed the key business)
• Situation changes faster than we want it to:
– The average company lifespan went from 14 to 10
years
– 72% of top-managers believe that main competitors
of their company will be different in 5 years
Source: (Zook, 2007)
Response of successful organizations:
development of dynamic capabilities

16. Dynamic Capabilities
• The “ability to integrate, build, and
reconfigure internal and external
competences to address rapidly
changing environments“
• Three types of dynamic capabilities
for organizations:
– Effective communication processes
– Effective internal learning and innovation
creation systems
– Effective and fast re-learning /
re-organization processes
• Organization demands to employees:
– Effective communication skills
– Learning / re-learning skills
– Creativity / innovativeness
Source: (Teece et al., 1997;
Eisenhardt&Martin 2000)

17. What Should a School Teach?
• Basic intellectual
skills (reading,
writing, counting)
• “World view”,
common cultural
basis
• Prepare to choose
one profession
(in addition will need)
• Basic skills:
– Work with large volumes
of information
– Communication skills
– Creativity
– Re-learning skills
• “Module” skills
School 2020School 1908-2008

18. Basic Human Skills in 2025
• Work with large volume of information (“man is a
knowledge pool” system)
– Skill of acquiring information
– Mindmapping skills
– Pattern recognition skills
• Communication skills (95% of all workload will
involve communication with other people):
– Structured “ecological” communication leading to positive
change (G. Bateson, …)
– Non-verbal communication skills (70-80% of information in
human communication)
– Creation of proto-artificial intellect: development of human-
computer communication interface

19. Basic Skills… (2)
• Creativity
– manageable individual creativity (Disney’s methods,
TRIZ, …)
– creative group methods: think tank technologies,
‘knowledge reactors’ etc.
• Re-learning skills
– development of ‘learn to learn’ ability (learning-2, -
3 by G. Bateson)
– Prerequisite of continuous learning over all life
according to education process logics

20. Changes in School Education Programs
• ‘Through’ development of the Skills of the Future in
school process (from first to last grade)
• Change in emphasis of teaching, in methods of
information delivery, in student involvement formats,
methods of appraisal, etc.
• Gradual shift from subject-oriented to skill-oriented
courses (mathematics, literature, logics, programming,
etc.)
• Increase in individual and group project-based study and
creativity-focused study
• Early development of computer competences: active use
of Internet and programming in school education

21. What Can Be Done Right Now?
• Study and implementation of
‘future skills’ development
methods by educational
innovators
• Creation of innovator network
to launch pilot projects
(with active use of Internet
environment)
• Shared knowledge database (wiki)
• Prerequisites for establishing new
educational standards