3. GEORGE BUSH
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
4. 44,4 m are not
entrepreneurial
2,5 m are setting up a business
2,39 m discontinue a business
1.94 m own a business less than 3.5 yrs old
1,04 m own a business more than 3.5 yrs old
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
Source: GEM (2011) and StatsSA (2010)
5. Sales turnover of VAT registered businesses
R1 million or less 1, 659 765
R1 to 10 million 166 424 (1/11)
R10 to 100 million 45 852 (1/40)
R100 million + 6 815 (1/275)
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
Source: SARS (2011)
6. Sales turnover of VAT registered businesses
R1 million or less 1, 659 765
R1 to 10 million 166 424 (1/11)
R10 to 100 million 45 852 (1/40)
R100 million + 6 815 (1/275)
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
Source: SARS (2011)
7. 9 steps to R100 million +
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
31. “new ventures launched with formal written
business plans do not outperform ones
launched without them.”
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
Source: Lange, Mollov, Pearlmutter, Singh and Bygrave (2007)
32. Business Plan?
79%
21%
Yes!
No!
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
Source: Bhide (2000)
55. Learn
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
56. Learn
Learn
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
57. Learn
Learn
Learn
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
58. Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
59. Success
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
60. Guess
Change Test
plan
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
61. Guess?
Guess?
Test
Test
Guess?
Guess? Guess?
Test
Test Test
Guess?
Guess?
Test
Test
Guess? Guess?
Test Test
62. 1 They have ambition
2 They build teams
3 They burn the business plan
4 They realise plans are guesses
5 If they guess wrong, they change
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
63. When do you know to stop searching?
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
64. They change until they
find product-market fit
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
66. Customer Interest?
5 Will pre-order & pay now!
4 Interested & will purchase once released
3 Interested, but want other to test
2 Not interested, but maybe one day
1 Not interested & will never purchase
69. Customer Satisfaction?
5 Will definitely purchase again (love the product)
4 Will purchase again
3 Might purchase again
2 Probably not purchase again
1 Never purchase again
74. 1 They have ambition
2 They build teams
3 They burn the business plan
4 They realise plans are guesses
5 If they guess wrong, they change
6 They change until they find product
market fit
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
75. They don’t grow until
product-market fit
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
80. of high growth internet start ups
fail due to premature scaling.
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
Source: Start Up Genome Report(2011)
81. Startups that scale properly
grow about
times faster than startups that
scale prematurely
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
Source: Start Up Genome Report(2011)
82. 1 They have ambition
2 They build teams
3 They burn the business plan
4 They realise plans are guesses
5 If they guess wrong, they change
6 They change until they find product
market fit
7 They don’t grow until the they find
product-market fit
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
95. AMAR BHIDE
I'd just go sell it. I don't believe in market research. Somebody
once told me the only thing you need is a customer. Instead of
asking all the questions, I'd try and make some sales. I'd learn
a lot, you know: which people, what were the obstacles, what
were the questions, which prices work better. Even before I
started production. So my market research would actually be
hands-on actual selling."
Source: Sarasavathy (2007)
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
96. AMAR BHIDE
"Ultimately, the best test of any product is to go to your target
market and pretend like it's a real business. You'll find out soon
enough if it is or not. You have to take some risks. You can sit and
analyze these different markets forever and ever and ever, and
you'd get all these wonderful answers, and they still may be
wrong. The problem with the businessman type is they spend a
lot of time with all their great wisdom and all their spreadsheets
and all their Harvard Business Review people, and they'd either
become convinced that there's no market at all or that they have
the market nailed. And they'd go out there big time, with a lot of
expensive advertising and upfront costs, because they're gonna
overwhelm the market, and the business would go under."
Source: Sarasavathy (2007)
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
98. Effectual Thinking
(Imaging a possible new end using a given set of means)
Outcome
Opportunities
Outcome
Resources
Outcome
Knowledge Outcome
Outcome
People
Outcome
paulshawsmith
scientific success strategy
100. Effectual Thinking
Meal 1
Knowledge of
Cooking
Meal 2
Ingredients
on Hand
Meal 3
Equipment
Meal 4
Available
People I Meal 5
Know
Meal 6
paulshawsmith
scientific success strategy
101.
102. Effectual Thinking
Course
Match
FaceMash
Partner
Friends
Customer
Students
Harvard
Connection
paulshawsmith
scientific success strategy
103. 1 They have ambition
2 They build teams
3 They burn the business plan
4 They realise plans are guesses
5 If they guess wrong, they change
6 They change until they find product
market fit
7 They don’t grow until the they find
product-market fit
8 They work with what they have
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
105. 7.1 Doable? 4.1 How?
3. Product/ How will you acquire
Can you perform the
Market fit? customers?
8.1 Terms? Key activities?
1. Customer?
What terms will the 7.2 Costs? Will the customers Who is the
buy the product?
4.2 Costs?
partners require? customer?
Costs to perform Cost to acquire a
Key activities? customer?
8.2 Costs? Profitable?
2. Market
How much will they Will the business 5.1 Terms? Size?
charge? 6.1 Acquirable? What are the channel
Make money? What is the
Can you acquire terms? Market size?
The key resources?
6.2 Costs? 5.2 Costs?
Cost of key resources? Cost of distribution?
9. Costs? 5. Pricing?
What are your fixed and variable costs? How will you charge? How much will you charge?
106. Innovators Early Adaptors Early Majority
Business Product Cross
Model Market The
Proven Fit Chasm
Talking to Sell to Sell to Sell to
Innovators Innovators Early adaptors Early Majority
Searching Building
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
107. AMAR BHIDE
paulshawsmith
scientific business strategy
