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MARKETING 2011
  WEEK OF February 7, 2011
CHEESEHEADS RULE!
COMMODITIES RULE!!
22.0%



20.0%
16.6%
16.9%
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (billion bushels)
          Feb.           Avg           High    Low     Jan.      2009-10
Corn      0.675          0.736         0.795   0.645   0.745     1.708
Soybeans 0.140           0.135         0.245   0.105   0.140     0.151
Sorghum 0.037            0.036         0.041   0.031   0.037     0.041
Wheat     0.818          0.810         0.889   0.751   0.818     0.976

WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
                     2010-11                           2009-10
                     Feb.            Jan.              Feb.      Jan.
Wheat                177.77          177.99            197.60    197.43
Corn                 122.51          127.00            145.16    147.11
Soybeans             58.21           58.28             60.17     60.23

WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons)
                    2010-11                            2009-10
                    Feb.            Jan.               Feb.      Jan.
Brazil soybeans     68.5            67.5               69.0      69.0
Argentine soybeans  49.5            50.5               54.5      54.5

Brazil corn              51.0          51.0            56.1      56.1
Argentina corn           22.0          23.5            22.8      22.8

Australia wheat          25.0          25.0            21.92     21.9
Argentina wheat          14.0          14.0            11.0      11.0
USDA Wheat Balance Sheet
                                 2009-10 Crop                                   2010-11 Crop
    Farm Futures
                       January 12          February 9              January 12             February 9
                                                        Million Acres
Planted Acres            59.2                   59.2                     53.6                  53.6
Harvested Acres          49.9                   49.9                     47.6                  47.6
Yield (Bu. per Acre)     44.5                   44.5                     46.4                  46.4
                                                       Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks          657                   657                      976                   976
Production               2,218                  2,218                   2,208                  2,208
Imports                   119                   119                      110                   110
Total Supply             2,993                  2,993                   3,294                  3,294
Feed                      150                   150                      170                   170
Other Domestic            986                   986                     1,006                  1,006
Domestic Use             1,137                  1,137                   1,176                  1,176
Exports                   881                   881                     1,300                  1,300
Total Use                2,018                  2,018                   2,476                  2,476
Ending Stocks             976                   976                      818                   818

Avg. Farm Price          $4.87                  $4.87             $5.50 - $5.80          $5.60 - $5.80
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
USDA Corn Balance Sheet
 Source:                         2009-10 Crop                                   2010-11 Crop
Farm Futures           January 12          February 9              January 12             February 9
                                                        Million Acres
Planted Acres            86.4                   86.4                     88.2                  88.2
Harvested Acres           79.5                   79.5                    81.4                   81.4
Yield (Bu. per Acre)     164.7                  164.7                   152.8                  152.8
                                                       Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks         1,673                  1,673                   1,708                  1,708
Production              13,092              13,092                      12,447              12,447
Imports                    8                      8                      20                     20
Total Supply            14,774              14,774                      14,175              14,175
Feed                     5,140                  5,140                   5,200                  5,200
Other Domestic           5,939                  5,939                   6,280                  6,350
  Ethanol for Fuel       4,568                  4,568                   4,900                  4,950
Total Domestic Use      11,079              11,079                      11,480              11,550
Exports                  1,987                  1,987                   1,950                  1,950
Total Use               13,066              13,066                      13,430              13,500
Ending Stocks            1,708                  1,708                    745                   675
Avg. Farm Price          $3.55                  $3.55             $4.90 - $5.70          $5.05 - $5.75
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
USDA Soybean Balance Sheet
 Source:                        2009-10 Crop                                   2010-11 Crop
Farm Futures          January 12          February 9              January 12             February 9
                                                       Million Acres
Planted Acres           77.5                   77.5                     77.4                  77.4
Harvested Acres         76.4                   76.4                     76.6                  76.6
Yield (Bu. per Acre     44.0                   44.0                     43.5                  43.5
                                                      Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks         138                   138                      151                   151
Production              3,359                  3,359                   3,329                  3,329
Imports                  15                     15                      15                     15
Total Supply            3,512                  3,512                   3,495                  3,495
Crush                   1,752                  1,752                   1,655                  1,655
Other Domestic           108                   108                      110                   110
Domestic Use            1,860                  1,860                   1,765                  1,765
Exports                 1,501                  1,501                   1,590                  1,590
Total Use               3,361                  3,361                   3,355                  3,355
Ending Stocks            151                   151                      140                   140
Avg. Farm Price         $9.59                  $9.59           $11.20 - $12.20         $11.20 - $12.20
14.8%




18.2%
16.4%
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
Source:
Farm Futures
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/global/LOOPS/gfs37.5asiaprecip.html
2006
 78,327
 75,520
  6,522
  3.452
  4,168
 31,117
 13,878
  1,815
 12,731
  2,838
  1,950
 60,807
  2,007
  6,952
 37,100
 ?2,000
341,184
USDA Crop Reports and Commodity Market Analysis
USDA Crop Reports and Commodity Market Analysis
USDA Crop Reports and Commodity Market Analysis
USDA Crop Reports and Commodity Market Analysis

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USDA Crop Reports and Commodity Market Analysis

  • 1. MARKETING 2011 WEEK OF February 7, 2011
  • 6. U.S. ENDING STOCKS (billion bushels) Feb. Avg High Low Jan. 2009-10 Corn 0.675 0.736 0.795 0.645 0.745 1.708 Soybeans 0.140 0.135 0.245 0.105 0.140 0.151 Sorghum 0.037 0.036 0.041 0.031 0.037 0.041 Wheat 0.818 0.810 0.889 0.751 0.818 0.976 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2010-11 2009-10 Feb. Jan. Feb. Jan. Wheat 177.77 177.99 197.60 197.43 Corn 122.51 127.00 145.16 147.11 Soybeans 58.21 58.28 60.17 60.23 WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2010-11 2009-10 Feb. Jan. Feb. Jan. Brazil soybeans 68.5 67.5 69.0 69.0 Argentine soybeans 49.5 50.5 54.5 54.5 Brazil corn 51.0 51.0 56.1 56.1 Argentina corn 22.0 23.5 22.8 22.8 Australia wheat 25.0 25.0 21.92 21.9 Argentina wheat 14.0 14.0 11.0 11.0
  • 7.
  • 8. USDA Wheat Balance Sheet 2009-10 Crop 2010-11 Crop Farm Futures January 12 February 9 January 12 February 9 Million Acres Planted Acres 59.2 59.2 53.6 53.6 Harvested Acres 49.9 49.9 47.6 47.6 Yield (Bu. per Acre) 44.5 44.5 46.4 46.4 Million Bushels Beginning Stocks 657 657 976 976 Production 2,218 2,218 2,208 2,208 Imports 119 119 110 110 Total Supply 2,993 2,993 3,294 3,294 Feed 150 150 170 170 Other Domestic 986 986 1,006 1,006 Domestic Use 1,137 1,137 1,176 1,176 Exports 881 881 1,300 1,300 Total Use 2,018 2,018 2,476 2,476 Ending Stocks 976 976 818 818 Avg. Farm Price $4.87 $4.87 $5.50 - $5.80 $5.60 - $5.80
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 19.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. USDA Corn Balance Sheet Source: 2009-10 Crop 2010-11 Crop Farm Futures January 12 February 9 January 12 February 9 Million Acres Planted Acres 86.4 86.4 88.2 88.2 Harvested Acres 79.5 79.5 81.4 81.4 Yield (Bu. per Acre) 164.7 164.7 152.8 152.8 Million Bushels Beginning Stocks 1,673 1,673 1,708 1,708 Production 13,092 13,092 12,447 12,447 Imports 8 8 20 20 Total Supply 14,774 14,774 14,175 14,175 Feed 5,140 5,140 5,200 5,200 Other Domestic 5,939 5,939 6,280 6,350 Ethanol for Fuel 4,568 4,568 4,900 4,950 Total Domestic Use 11,079 11,079 11,480 11,550 Exports 1,987 1,987 1,950 1,950 Total Use 13,066 13,066 13,430 13,500 Ending Stocks 1,708 1,708 745 675 Avg. Farm Price $3.55 $3.55 $4.90 - $5.70 $5.05 - $5.75
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 35.
  • 36. USDA Soybean Balance Sheet Source: 2009-10 Crop 2010-11 Crop Farm Futures January 12 February 9 January 12 February 9 Million Acres Planted Acres 77.5 77.5 77.4 77.4 Harvested Acres 76.4 76.4 76.6 76.6 Yield (Bu. per Acre 44.0 44.0 43.5 43.5 Million Bushels Beginning Stocks 138 138 151 151 Production 3,359 3,359 3,329 3,329 Imports 15 15 15 15 Total Supply 3,512 3,512 3,495 3,495 Crush 1,752 1,752 1,655 1,655 Other Domestic 108 108 110 110 Domestic Use 1,860 1,860 1,765 1,765 Exports 1,501 1,501 1,590 1,590 Total Use 3,361 3,361 3,355 3,355 Ending Stocks 151 151 140 140 Avg. Farm Price $9.59 $9.59 $11.20 - $12.20 $11.20 - $12.20
  • 37.
  • 39. 16.4%
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 51. 2006 78,327 75,520 6,522 3.452 4,168 31,117 13,878 1,815 12,731 2,838 1,950 60,807 2,007 6,952 37,100 ?2,000 341,184