Final presentation on the strategy for the KPN Group Belgium in the Strategy seminar at the Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management (MA2 students).
Team:
Céline Abi Abdallah
Pablo Castiel Gazier
Eugénie Verhasselt
Jean-Charles Vanderlinden
2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK:
THE SOLVAY BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
OUR PROFESSOR OLIVIER HAMOIR
OUR ASSISTANT NICOLAS LEEUW
JEAN‐PAUL PHILIPPOT (RTBF GENERAL ADMINISTRATOR)
FOR THEIR CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK, VALUABLE INSIGHTS AND RICH LEARNING EXPERIENCE
THE INFORMA GROUP
THOMAS WEHMEIER (PRINCIPAL ANALYST, MOBILE OPERATORS)
DEXTER THILIEN (RESEARCH ANALYST, MOBILE OPERATORS)
KALYAN MEDAPATI (SENIOR ANALYST, FIXED TELECOMMUNICATIONS)
FOR THEIR CONTINUOUS SUPPORT AND PROVIDING BEST IN CLASS INTELLIGENCE
THE BELGIAN INSTITUTE FOR POST AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS (BIPT)
DIRK APPELMANS (SPOKESMAN)
FOR HELPING US UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEX BELGIAN TELECOM LANDSCAPE AND INVITING US TO THE IBPT INDUSTRY
INFORMATION EVENT ON THE UPCOMING 3G AND 4G AUCTION IN BELGIUM
3. {
‣ MARKET OVERVIEW
‣ KPN ISSUES
GOALS FOR TODAY ‣ OPPORTUNITIES
‣ FINAL STRATEGY
‣ Q&A SESSION
4. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MARKET OVERVIEW: BUSINESS LANDSCAPE
TELENET B2C Telecom market (bn€) ‐ 2009
Service Cable
2.609 1.879 809
Revenue €1,299 b€ 7%
Reach Flanders BELGACOM 27% 30%
Service Fixed line +mobile 33%
Revenue €6,60 b€
4%
34% 2%
Reach Na]onwide
53%
55%
39%
KPN GROUP BELGIUM 16%
Service Mobile Mobile Fixed TV
NUMERICABLE Revenue €0,785 b€
Service Cable
B2B Telecom market (bn€) ‐ 2009
Reach Na]onwide
1.269 1.885
Revenue €0,046 b€
3%
Reach Brussels 27%
34%
4% Others
9% Telenet
KPN Group
Mobistar
VOO MOBISTAR Belgacom
63% 60%
Service Cable Service Mobile
Revenue €0,143 b€ Revenue €1,665 b€
Reach Walonia Reach Na]onwide Mobile Fixed
4
Source : Annual Reports 2009/2010, Company websites, IDATE, Jupiter.
5. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MARKET OVERVIEW: MARKET TRENDS
Broadband & TV Market (M subscriptions) Mobile Phone Market (M subscriptions)
5M 14M
Flat Markets
4M 11M
3M 7M
1M 4M
TV market Broadband market Number of Households Mobile phone market Belgian popula]on
0M 0M
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E 2016E 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E 2016E
Fixed Phone Market (M subscriptions) Multiplay Market (M subscriptions)
5M 5M
Down Market
Up Market
4M 4M
3M 3M
1M 1M
Fixed phone market Number of Households Mul]play market Number of Households
0M 0M
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E 2016E 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
5
Source : Team analysis, Informa Group, Company annual reports, The Economist Business Intelligence.
6. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MARKET OVERVIEW: KPN GROUP BELGIUM
MARKET SHARE KPIs
ARPU mobile (€/month)
Revenue break‐down 2009 (%)
«KPN is a mobile telecommunicaHon provider 20.0 €
posiHoned as an innovator in products and 15.0 €
services via a segmented, mulH‐brand approach.» B2C B2B 10.0 €
95% 5.0 €
0 €
2008 2009 2010
Belgium in KPN Royal
Mobile Market share ‐ volume and value Key financial indicators (m€)
in revenue in EBITDA 30 % 900M€
5% 5% 23 % 675M€
15 % 450M€
8 % 225M€
0 % 0M€
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
95% 95% Subscrip]ons (#) Value (€) Total revenue Ebitda
Point of Sale (#) Fixed Market share ‐ volume Capex (m€/y) and %revenue
800
800 4.6 % 17% 150M€
600 4.4 % 13% 113M€
400 4.3 % 9% 75M€
200 69 59 4.1 % 4% 38M€
0 3.9 % 0% 0M€
Dealers Allo Telecom Base Shops 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
6
Source : Team analysis, Annual reports, IBPT, Press releases.
8. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MOBILE: 4TH ENTRANT WILL CAPTURE 8,3% MARKET SHARE BY 2016
RATIONAL MODEL ‐ CABLE OPERATOR
• Auc]on in 2.1GHz and 1,8Ghz band will start in 5,000,000
July 2011 for poten]al 4th entrant (3G license)
• License is required to launch within 18 month
3,750,000
Number of B2C clients
(20% coverage provide na]onal roaming)
CABLE OPERATOR 2,500,000
• High investment in license and
infrastructure is required. 1,250,000 Market share : 8,28%
• But s]ll alrac]ve :
‐ Convergence as a LT interest.
‐ Defensive move against Mobistar 0
and KPN Dec‐11 Jun‐12 Dec‐12 Jun‐13 Dec‐13 Jun‐14 Dec‐14 Jun‐15 Dec‐15 Jun‐16 Dec‐16
Belgacom Mobile Mobistar KPN Group Belgium Fourth entrant
INTERNATIONAL PLAYER
• Small market with low growth.
• But s]ll alrac]ve : • Very high probability that cable operators buy a license together (coverage request)
‐ High % of prepaid. • Worst case scenario (entry of cable operator) taken into account in all models.
‐ Belgian = Price sensi]ve belgian. • Too late to take any acdon.
‐ Low switching cost
8
Source : Team Analysis, Informa Group, The Economist Business Intelligence, KPN Investor Presenta]on, Early mover advantage and empirical analysis of european mobile phone market, Meryl Lynch mmC.
9. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MOBILE: TERMINATION RATES TO NEGATIVE IMPACT OF ‐168M€ NPV
RATIONAL MODEL
20.0 19.5
20 18.0 18.5 18.5 19.0 300M€
15 14.0
12.0 11.4 225M€
10
5.7 150M€
4.8
5 Proximus
2.9
Mobistar
KPN Group Belgium 1.1
75M€
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
MTR Asymmetry in Europe 0M€
60% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Diff btw Op1 & Op2 Revenue Profit Cost
45% Diff btw Op1 & Op3
30%
• Trial in progress but low chances of success
15%
• Nega]ve impact of ‐168M€ NPV over 5 years (2011‐2016)
0% • No acdon can be taken
UK Austria Spain Germany Ireland Belgium
9
Source : Team analysis, Informa Group, Corporate annual reports, IBPT.
10. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MOBILE: GROWING DEMAND FOR MOBILE DATA
Total mobile data traffic per user global (MB per month) peak time usage of actual 3G network in urban areas
500MB 100%
407MB
375MB
75%
250MB 210MB
50%
100MB
125MB
46MB
9MB 20MB 25%
0MB
2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
0%
TOTAL Voice Video P2P Data 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
CAGR (2008‐2013E) 115% 97% 137% 87% 98%
Network u]lisa]on in peak ]me Limit of technology (Noise issue)
• Need for data will be mul]plied by 4 by 2013
• Average CAGR is above 114%
• Need to increase the network capacity
10
Source : Comscore, Morgan stanley research, AT&T, Cisco 2008, Ovum.
12. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
SHOULD KPN EXIT THE BELGIAN MARKET?
KPI MATURE MARKET EBITDA MARGIN BENCHMARK
Orange (France Telecom)
KPN GB ‐ Free Cash Flow
60%
130M€
48%
98M€
35%
65M€
33M€ 23%
0M€ 10% KPN Royal should keep its Belgian subsidiary
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Orange ES Orange PL BASE BE Orange FR
• KPN GB KPI are in KPN Royal benchmark
Change in NOPAT + DA / Capex • KPN GB: 5% revenue and 5% EBITDA of KPN
Vodaphone
• 10,6% Free Cash Flow CAGR
60%
60% • KPN GB is in line with EU EBITDA margins
45%
30%
15% 48%
0%
‐15% 35%
‐30%
‐45% 23%
‐60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10%
Voda UK BASE BE Voda ES Voda IT
Belgium Germany Netherlands Total
12
Source : Team analysis, NBB, Belfirst, Companies Annual reports.
14. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MVNO: DISCRIMINATE THE MARKET WITH LAUNCH OF TWO MVNOS
MVNO MARKET SEGMENTS
Clients number (k) and MVNO %
1,750,000 13%
1,312,500 10%
GEOGRAPHICAL & MIGRANT MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT
• ay yildiz • groupe rossel 875,000 7%
• chiama • vlaamse mediamaatschappij
• zoniq • het belang van limburg
• Ortel mobile • rtl group 437,500 3%
RETAILER BANKING
• Carrefour • / 0 0%
• aldi 2006 2007 2008 2009
• phone house TELECOM/CONVERGENCE
% of total number of MVNO clients
• allo telecom • Toledo mobile
DISCOUNT DATA
BELGIUM FRANCE GERMANY NETHERLANDS UK
• Simyo • Mobile viking
Market share 12% (2009) 6,5% (2010) 30% (2010) 20% (2009) 15% (2006)
BUSINESS & M2M CHARITY
• Base business • ello mobile Number MVNO companies 36 40 103 42 29
14
Source : ARCEP, Press review, IBPT, Annual reports, BuddeComm 2008.
15. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MVNO: DISCRIMINATE THE MARKET WITH LAUNCH OF TWO MVNOS
ACTION MODEL
Launch of 2 new MVNO 100M€ CAGR
2012‐2016
• 21% market share with 217 point
RETAILER 15,8%
of sales. 75M€
(COLRUYT) • Only major retailer not proposing
telecom product
12,2%
• In depth analysis must be done to 50M€
MEDIA
iden]fy best brand
&
• Poten]al value capturing in
ENTERTAINMENT 26,4%
content value chain 25M€
• With one (or more) of the 4
biggest retail bank
BANKS 0M€
• Legal issues must be taken into 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
account Profit Revenue Cost Bull Bear
RISK FACTOR
NPV (5 years )
• Have to convince partners before other MNO.
• Full MVNO might change network.
• Legal issues might slow down launch process.
Probability Fit factor
72.097 k€
15
Source : Team analysis, wireless Inteligence, Vandercammen M. et Jospin‐Penet N. La distribu]on 2009, Nielsen, Belfin (Insight consul]ng), Centre pour l’égaité des chances, CIM, astel.be, bemobile.be.
16. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
SHIFT TO POSTPAID & REDUCTION OF CHURN: INCREASE TOP AND BOTTOM LINE
HIGH % OF PREPAID WITH LOW ARPU EBITDA margin vs churn rate ‐ 2010
50%
Postpaid vs prepaid Users ARPU 2010 €/month
40%
EBITDA margin
20% 30%
80% 20%
10%
Blended churn rate: Postpaid churn rate:
00%
36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
64%
KPN Belgium Yearly revenue relation to % of prepaid
1.5b€
1b€
Revenue
43%
57%
0.5b€
0 € 13 € 25 € 38 € 50 € Prepaid revenue Postpaid revenue Total
0b€
Postpaid ARPU Postpaid 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
Prepaid ARPU Prepaid
% of prepaid
16
Source : Team analysis, Informa Group, Corporate annual reports, Nokia Siemens Networks, Company websites.
17. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
SHIFT TO POSTPAID & REDUCTION OF CHURN: DEVELOPMENT OF HOTSPOT + 3G
peak time usage of actual 3G network in urban areas Mobile broadband cost per Bit as % of EDGE
100%
100% 100%
75% 75%
50% 50%
25% 20%
25% 15%
10% 6% 5%
Network u]lisa]on in peak ]me Limit of technology (Noise issue)
0% 0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% EDGE WCDMA (3G) HSDPA (3,5G) HSPA+ WIFI (Current) LTE (4G)
• Leasing : 2000€ monthly for tower + 150€ for backhaul • CAPEX : 50‐100€ per Wi‐Fi access point
WIFI
3G TOWER • Large reach (Few kilometers depending on spectrum used) • Small reach (Max 100 meters)
(HOTSPOT)
• Low speed (Up to 21,6 Mbytes if in reach of 3 sectors) • Fast speed (Up to 100Mbytes if connected to FTTH)
LOW DENSITY OF POPULATION & LOW TRAFFIC HIGH DENSITY OF POPULATION OR HIGH TRAFFIC
Con]nue improvement of 3G network coverage
(leverage current partnership with Mobistar)
17
Source : Team analysis, Morgan stanley research, AT&T
18. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
SHIFT TO POSTPAID & REDUCTION OF CHURN
ACTION MODEL
More post‐paid offers CAGR
2012‐2016
• Bigger price range for postpaid offers 230M€
13,9%
Joint Smartphone sales 181M€
• Subven]on of 150€/smartphone to
1 € all postpaid clients 132M€
32,3%
Call to shik
83M€
• Train vendors to propose postpaid
3,7%
• Call center to propose 1/year an
34M€
alrac]ve shiu
Wifi hotspot in traffic zone ‐15M€
• Wifi coverage of all traffic points 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
• 2400 antennas in 3 years Profit Revenue Cost Bull Bear
RISK FACTOR
NPV (5 years )
• Wifi deployment may take more ]me.
• Effec]veness of joint sales depends on other MNO.
• Segment only interested in prepaid
Probability Fit factor
207.837 k€
18
Source : Team analysis, Annual report, Press review, Morgan Stanley Research, IBPT, Cisco.
19. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MULTIPLAY: 226M€ OPPORTUNITY
MARKET SUCCESS KPN CAPABILITIES
Exploding Multiplay Market (HH)
4,000k HH KPN royal
+400k/year
3,000k HH • Leader in all four markets and mul]play in NL
• Proven success in IPTV
2,000k HH
1,000k HH
0k HH
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Become a
major player
71% of HH will have a mul]play package by 2014 in the
muldplay
Mobistar ‐ Number of Residential fix clients
market
60,000
+45%
45,000
30,000
15,000
0
2009 2010
Fixed broadband + voice Starpack
19
Source : Team analysis, Mobistar presenta]on to analysts 2010, Informa Group, BCG.
20. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
MULTIPLAY: 226M€ OPPORTUNITY
ACTION MODEL
Cover all muldplay segments CAGR
2012‐2016
270M€
• Add a TV offer to launch TV
mul]play ranges (71% of market)
• Fast follow Mobistar’s 4‐play 35,6%
202M€
offer
133M€
55,4%
24,7%
Launch of a markedng campaign to raise awareness
65M€
• 5M€ first year then 2,5M€
• Focus on 3‐play and 4‐play
• Mass media (TV, Billboards, Press) ‐4M€
• POS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
• Direct marke]ng (KPN user calls) Profit Revenue Cost Bull Bear
RISK FACTOR
NPV (5 years )
• Increased compe]]on in mul]play
• Late entrance
• 5 years of high growth (leads to satura]on)
Probability Fit factor
226.405 k€
20
Source : Team analysis, Telenet presenta]on to analysts 2008‐2010, Mobistar website, The Economist Business intelligence operators annual reports, IBPT, Morgan Stanley.
22. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
VALUE CHAIN
Financial Services: 26.600M€
Hardware Network Content
6b€ 6b€ 6b€
4.8b€ 4.8b€ 4.8b€
Market Size
3.6b€ 3.6b€ 3.6b€
2.4b€ 2.4b€ 2.4b€
1.2b€ 1.2b€ 1.2b€
0b€ 0b€ 0b€
IT Services Hardware PC Wireless Wireline TV Multiplay Software Gambling Music/VideoVideo Games
Share
18% 13% 5% 27% 11% 7,5% 2,8% 10% 7,4% 1,9% 1,1%
• High value markets. • High value in the souware and gambling
• Decreasing ARPUs over ]me.
• Coupled offers have been legalized and start market.
Industry Trends
• Mobile market is saturated (121%
coming to the market. • Other content markets are very small.
penetra]on).
• Low PC penetra]on 53,5% (vs 75% for EU) • Belgacom is making a move towards video
• Government conflict of interest due to
expected to rise to 71,2 by 2014. games.
53,3% stake in Belgacom.
• 0,7% of GDP spend on hardware. • There is a growing need for content on
• Convergence strategy.
• Hardware private labels are rising (eg:medion). demand.
22
Source: Team analysis, Economist Intelligence Unit, IBPT, Informa Group, GfK/BEA, Sta]s]que du système financier Belge, Press review.
23. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
HARDWARE PRIVATE LABEL 16M€ OPPORTUNITY
ACTION MODEL
15,000€K
ZTE as partner CAGR
2012‐2016
• 79€ for a classic phone (17% discount)
• 149€ for a smartphone (40% discount) 7,9%
11,250€K
• Will drive addi]onal traffic to store
due to exclusivity effect
7,500€K
7,9%
Image : ZTE for Movistar La]n America
7,9%
3,750€K
Retail private label margin advantage
0€K
Brand 90 % 10 %
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Private Label 70 % 30 %
EBIT Revenues Costs EBIT ‐ Bull EBIT ‐ Bear
RISK FACTOR
NPV (5 years )
• Low profit.
• Time consuming partnership.
• New market.
Probability Fit factor
16.572k€
23
Source : Team analysis, Morgan Stanley 2009, McKinsey handset market research 2009, Gy retail and technology Benelux 2009, BCG Private label cost advantage, Informa Group, cellulartec.com, ZTE website.
24. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
UNLEASH THE PING‐PING 15M€ POTENTIAL
ACTION MODEL
12,000€K
Enter the NFC payment market CAGR
2012‐2016
• Consumer use of cash is
predicted to decrease 42%
9,000€K
• First step in the 26,6 billion 43,7%
financial services market
6,000€K
Seal a fair deal with other operators
• 33% of revenues for each
• Shared ownership of Tunz/Ping‐ping 3,000€K
Launch of a markedng campaign to raise awareness 31,7%
• 300k€ total investment by all 3 operators 0€K
• Internet adver]sing (websites, social networks) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
• POS EBIT Revenues Costs
RISK FACTOR
NPV (5 years )
• Deal between telecom operators is s]ll unclear.
• Proton rela]ve failure (‐14%) last year.
• New market.
Probability Fit factor
15.336k€
24
Source : Team analysis, Company website, Gartner 2010, Eurostat.
25. MARKET KPN ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STRATEGY Q&A
LAUNCH OF A KPN APP‐STORE WITH GAMBLING AS 23M€ CASH COW
ACTION MODEL
Launch of a kpn app‐store 15,000€K
CAGR
2012‐2016
• Launch of exclusive apps with gambling as flagship
• Partnerships with other app‐stores (ovi, android...) 39,1%
11,250€K
• Low cost adver]sing campaign (SMS), POS 45,2%
Gambling app in partnership with Loterie nadonale 7,500€K
• Apps based on Loterie Na]onale games
• Gamble by SMS
• Directly charged on phone bill 3,750€K
Low costs markedng campaign 0%
0€K
• SMS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
• POS
• Base/partners website EBIT Revenues Costs EBIT Bull EBIT Bear
RISK FACTOR
NPV (5 years )
• New market.
• Slower adop]on of e‐gambling.
• Gambling brand damage.
Probability Fit factor
22.979k€
25
Source : Team analysis, Lolerie na]onale annual report 2009, Lolerie Na]onale website, Juniper reseach.
KPN has had a heavy success in IPTV services in the Netherlands with:\na constant progress in quaterly addings\n50k quaterly net addings after 3 years\n
ajouter le CAGR en bas?\n
\n
\n
Double win:\n- Advertising costs and R&D give the 20% advantage (we have assumed we made 0% margin before)\n- The ZTE phones are much cheaper than the other phones 105€ average smartphone retail price vs 241€ for Belgium (56,4%) discount\n