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CÉLINE
ABI
ABDALLAH
‐
PABLO
CASTIEL
GAZIER
‐
EUGÉNIE
VERHASSELT
‐
JEAN‐CHARLES
VANDERLINDEN

STRATEGY
SEMINAR
KPN
GROUP
BELGIUM
‐
SETTING
THE
GROUNDS
FOR
FUTURE
GROWTH




                                                                                              1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
                                     WE
WOULD
LIKE
TO
THANK:


               THE
SOLVAY
BRUSSELS
SCHOOL
OF
ECONOMICS
AND
MANAGEMENT
                              OUR
PROFESSOR
OLIVIER
HAMOIR
                               OUR
ASSISTANT
NICOLAS
LEEUW

                    JEAN‐PAUL
PHILIPPOT
(RTBF
GENERAL
ADMINISTRATOR)
             FOR
THEIR
CONSTRUCTIVE
FEEDBACK,
VALUABLE
INSIGHTS
AND
RICH
LEARNING
EXPERIENCE


                                    THE
INFORMA
GROUP
                THOMAS
WEHMEIER
(PRINCIPAL
ANALYST,
MOBILE
OPERATORS)
                   DEXTER
THILIEN
(RESEARCH
ANALYST,
MOBILE
OPERATORS)
               KALYAN
MEDAPATI
(SENIOR
ANALYST,
FIXED
TELECOMMUNICATIONS)
                 FOR
THEIR
CONTINUOUS
SUPPORT
AND
PROVIDING
BEST
IN
CLASS
INTELLIGENCE


              THE
BELGIAN
INSTITUTE
FOR
POST
AND
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
(BIPT)
                               DIRK
APPELMANS
(SPOKESMAN)
FOR
HELPING
US
UNDERSTANDING
THE
COMPLEX
BELGIAN
TELECOM
LANDSCAPE
AND
INVITING
US
TO
THE
IBPT
INDUSTRY

                   INFORMATION
EVENT
ON
THE
UPCOMING
3G
AND
4G
AUCTION
IN
BELGIUM
{
                      ‣ MARKET
OVERVIEW
                      ‣ KPN
ISSUES
GOALS
FOR
TODAY       ‣ OPPORTUNITIES
                      ‣ FINAL
STRATEGY
                      ‣ Q&A
SESSION
MARKET                                     KPN
ISSUES                         OPPORTUNITIES          FINAL
STRATEGY                        Q&A



  MARKET
OVERVIEW:
BUSINESS
LANDSCAPE

                                             TELENET                                                                          B2C
Telecom
market
(bn€)
‐
2009
                                      Service          Cable
                                                                                                                        2.609               1.879               809
                                     Revenue       €1,299
b€                                                                                  7%
                                         Reach     Flanders                      BELGACOM                               27%                                     30%
                                                                       Service     Fixed
line
+mobile                                        33%
                                                                       Revenue         €6,60
b€
                                                                                                                                       4%
                                                                                                                        34%                  2%
                                                                        Reach         Na]onwide
                                                                                                                                                                53%

                                                                                                                                              55%
                                                                                                                        39%
                                                                                          KPN
GROUP
BELGIUM                                                     16%

                                                                                        Service          Mobile        Mobile                Fixed              TV
       NUMERICABLE                                                                      Revenue         €0,785
b€
     Service            Cable
                                                                                                                              B2B
Telecom
market
(bn€)
‐
2009
                                                                                         Reach          Na]onwide
                                                                                                                      1.269                 1.885
     Revenue       €0,046
b€
                                                                                                                       3%
      Reach         Brussels                                                                                                                 27%
                                                                                                                       34%
                                                                                                                                       4%                        Others
                                                                                                                                             9%                  Telenet
                                                                                                                                                                 KPN
Group
                                                                                                                                                                 Mobistar
                        VOO                                                             MOBISTAR                                                                 Belgacom
                                                                                                                       63%                  60%
               Service           Cable                                              Service         Mobile

               Revenue          €0,143
b€                                           Revenue        €1,665
b€

                Reach           Walonia                                              Reach        Na]onwide           Mobile                Fixed

                                                                                                                                                                             4
Source
:
Annual
Reports
2009/2010,
Company
websites,
IDATE,
Jupiter.
MARKET                                 KPN
ISSUES                                  OPPORTUNITIES                                 FINAL
STRATEGY                                    Q&A



  MARKET
OVERVIEW:
MARKET
TRENDS

                                 Broadband
&
TV
Market
(M
subscriptions)                                                                         Mobile
Phone
Market
(M
subscriptions)
                  5M                                                                                                        14M
   Flat
Markets




                  4M                                                                                                        11M


                  3M                                                                                                        7M

                  1M                                                                                                        4M
                                TV
market        Broadband
market         Number
of
Households                                                           Mobile
phone
market            Belgian
popula]on
                  0M                                                                                                        0M
                       2002   2004       2006      2008        2010      2012E     2014E      2016E                               2002    2004       2006         2008         2010     2012E      2014E      2016E


                                     Fixed
Phone
Market
(M
subscriptions)                                                                          Multiplay
Market
(M
subscriptions)
                  5M                                                                                                         5M
   Down
Market




                                                                                                                Up
Market
                  4M                                                                                                         4M


                  3M                                                                                                         3M


                  1M                                                                                                         1M
                                     Fixed
phone
market             Number
of
Households                                                                    Mul]play
market            Number
of
Households
                  0M                                                                                                         0M
                       2002   2004        2006      2008        2010      2012E      2014E       2016E                            2007   2008     2009     2010    2011E   2012E      2013E   2014E   2015E   2016E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Informa
Group,
Company
annual
reports,
The
Economist
Business
Intelligence.
MARKET                                     KPN
ISSUES                         OPPORTUNITIES                     FINAL
STRATEGY                              Q&A



  MARKET
OVERVIEW:
KPN
GROUP
BELGIUM
                                                                      MARKET
SHARE                                            KPIs
                                                                                                                                                   ARPU
mobile
(€/month)
                                                                                            Revenue
break‐down
2009
(%)
       «KPN

is
a
mobile
telecommunicaHon
provider
                                                                            20.0
€
         posiHoned
as
an
innovator
in
products
and
                                                                            15.0
€
     services
via
a
segmented,
mulH‐brand
approach.»                                                        B2C        B2B     10.0
€
                                                                               95%                                              5.0
€
                                                                                                                                  0
€
                                                                                                                                               2008             2009            2010
                     Belgium
in
KPN
Royal
                                                                               Mobile
Market
share
‐
volume
and
value                           Key
financial
indicators
(m€)
              in
revenue                     in
EBITDA                 30
%                                                   900M€
                 5%                             5%                     23
%                                                   675M€
                                                                       15
%                                                   450M€
                                                                        8
%                                                   225M€
                                                                        0
%                                                     0M€
                                                                                    2008            2009               2010                    2008             2009            2010
                    95%                            95%                             Subscrip]ons
(#)               Value
(€)                     Total
revenue          Ebitda

                             Point
of
Sale
(#)                                       Fixed
Market
share
‐
volume                         Capex
(m€/y)
and
%revenue
                   800
    800                                                                4.6
%                                                   17%                                                     150M€
    600                                                                4.4
%                                                   13%                                                     113M€
    400                                                                4.3
%                                                    9%                                                     75M€
    200                                69                 59           4.1
%                                                    4%                                                     38M€
      0                                                                3.9
%                                                    0%                                                      0M€
                 Dealers         Allo
Telecom        Base
Shops                      2008          2009               2010                2008             2009         2010
                                                                                                                                                                                               6
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Annual
reports,
IBPT,
Press
releases.
KPN
ISSUES
MARKET                                  KPN
ISSUES                                                     OPPORTUNITIES                          FINAL
STRATEGY                              Q&A



  MOBILE:
4TH
ENTRANT
WILL
CAPTURE
8,3%
MARKET
SHARE
BY
2016
                             RATIONAL                                                                                                     MODEL
‐
CABLE
OPERATOR

    • Auc]on
in
2.1GHz
and
1,8Ghz
band
will
start
in
                                              5,000,000
      July
2011
for
poten]al
4th
entrant
(3G
license)
    • License
is
required
to
launch
within
18
month

                                                                                                   3,750,000




                                                                           Number
of
B2C
clients
      (20%
coverage
provide
na]onal
roaming)


                        CABLE
OPERATOR                                                             2,500,000

                    • High
investment
in
license
and

                      infrastructure
is
required.                                                  1,250,000                                                                                       Market
share
:
8,28%
                    • But
s]ll
alrac]ve
:

                     ‐ Convergence
as
a
LT
interest.
                     ‐ Defensive
move
against
Mobistar
                                                   0
                        and
KPN                                                                            Dec‐11     Jun‐12   Dec‐12    Jun‐13   Dec‐13     Jun‐14   Dec‐14     Jun‐15      Dec‐15        Jun‐16   Dec‐16

                                                                                                                               Belgacom
Mobile    Mobistar       KPN
Group
Belgium        Fourth
entrant
                    INTERNATIONAL
PLAYER

                    • Small
market
with
low
growth.
                    • But
s]ll
alrac]ve
:
                                                                • Very
high
probability
that
cable
operators
buy
a
license
together
(coverage
request)
                     ‐ High
%
of
prepaid.                                                                 • Worst
case
scenario
(entry
of
cable
operator)
taken
into
account
in
all
models.
                     ‐ Belgian
=
Price
sensi]ve
belgian.                                                  • Too
late
to
take
any
acdon.
                     ‐ Low
switching
cost


                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8
Source
:
Team
Analysis,
Informa
Group,
The
Economist
Business
Intelligence,
KPN
Investor
Presenta]on,
Early
mover
advantage
and
empirical
analysis
of
european
mobile
phone
market,
Meryl
Lynch
mmC.
MARKET                                        KPN
ISSUES                               OPPORTUNITIES                      FINAL
STRATEGY                     Q&A



  MOBILE:
TERMINATION
RATES
TO
NEGATIVE
IMPACT
OF
‐168M€
NPV
                                  RATIONAL                                                                                            MODEL
                      20.0 19.5
    20 18.0 18.5 18.5           19.0                                                  300M€


    15                                   14.0
                                                12.0 11.4                             225M€

    10

                                                            5.7                       150M€
                                                                  4.8
     5                 Proximus
                                                                         2.9
                       Mobistar
                       KPN
Group
Belgium                                       1.1
                                                                                      75M€
     0
         2001        2003    2005      2007         2009          2011         2013

                        MTR
Asymmetry
in
Europe
                                       0M€
  60%                                                                                         2008      2009       2010        2011       2012         2013          2014   2015   2016

                     Diff
btw
Op1
&
Op2                                                                                    Revenue          Profit              Cost
  45%                Diff
btw
Op1
&
Op3

  30%
                                                                                                • Trial
in
progress
but
low
chances
of
success
  15%
                                                                                                • Nega]ve
impact
of
‐168M€
NPV
over
5
years
(2011‐2016)
   0%                                                                                           • No
acdon
can
be
taken
                UK      Austria    Spain Germany
 Ireland
 Belgium


                                                                                                                                                                                          9
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Informa
Group,
Corporate
annual
reports,
IBPT.
MARKET                                  KPN
ISSUES                                      OPPORTUNITIES                          FINAL
STRATEGY                                 Q&A



  MOBILE:
GROWING
DEMAND
FOR
MOBILE
DATA

                        Total
mobile
data
traffic
per
user
global
(MB
per
month)                                          peak
time
usage
of
actual
3G
network
in
urban
areas
     500MB                                                                                                    100%

                                                                                            407MB

     375MB
                                                                                                               75%


     250MB                                                                    210MB
                                                                                                               50%

                                                              100MB
     125MB
                                             46MB
                 9MB          20MB                                                                             25%

       0MB
                    2008          2009           2010E           2011E           2012E         2013E
                                                                                                                0%
                                     TOTAL           Voice            Video           P2P           Data             0%   5%       10%      15%      20%       25%     30%       35%       40%       45%

        CAGR
(2008‐2013E)           115%            97%           137%            87%           98%
                                                                                                                               Network
u]lisa]on
in
peak
]me         Limit
of
technology
(Noise
issue)



                                                          • Need
for
data
will
be
mul]plied
by
4
by
2013
                                                          • Average
CAGR
is
above
114%
                                                          • Need
to
increase
the
network
capacity

                                                                                                                                                                                                           10
Source
:
Comscore,
Morgan
stanley
research,
AT&T,
Cisco
2008,
Ovum.

SHOULD
KPN
EXIT
THE
BELGIAN
MARKET?
MARKET                                   KPN
ISSUES                          OPPORTUNITIES                           FINAL
STRATEGY                       Q&A



  SHOULD
KPN
EXIT
THE
BELGIAN
MARKET?
                                 KPI                                       MATURE
MARKET
EBITDA
MARGIN
BENCHMARK
                                                                                         Orange
(France
Telecom)
                         KPN
GB
‐
Free
Cash
Flow
                                                                           60%
   130M€
                                                                           48%
    98M€

                                                                           35%
    65M€

    33M€                                                                   23%


     0M€                                                                   10%                                                               KPN
Royal
should
keep
its
Belgian
subsidiary
           2005      2006       2007       2008          2009       2010         Orange
ES   Orange
PL   BASE
BE       Orange
FR
                                                                                                                                            • KPN
GB
KPI
are
in
KPN
Royal
benchmark
                   Change
in
NOPAT
+
DA
/
Capex                                                                                             • KPN
GB:
5%
revenue
and
5%
EBITDA
of
KPN
                                                                                                  Vodaphone
                                                                                                                                            • 10,6%
Free
Cash
Flow
CAGR
   60%
                                                                           60%                                                              • KPN
GB
is
in
line
with
EU
EBITDA
margins
   45%
   30%
   15%                                                                     48%
    0%
  ‐15%                                                                     35%
  ‐30%
  ‐45%                                                                     23%
  ‐60%
         2006         2007         2008           2009           2010      10%
                                                                                  Voda
UK      BASE
BE       Voda
ES       Voda
IT
           Belgium       Germany          Netherlands           Total

                                                                                                                                                                                        12
Source
:
Team
analysis,
NBB,
Belfirst,
Companies
Annual
reports.
STRATEGIC
OPPORTUNITIES
                          {   ‣CURRENT
REVENUE
STREAMS
                              ‣ NEW
REVENUE
STREAMS
MARKET                                   KPN
ISSUES                       OPPORTUNITIES                                    FINAL
STRATEGY                               Q&A



  MVNO:
DISCRIMINATE
THE
MARKET
WITH
LAUNCH
OF
TWO
MVNOS
                    MVNO
MARKET
SEGMENTS
                                                                                                                    Clients
number
(k)
and
MVNO
%
                                                                      1,750,000                                                                                                                 13%



                                                                      1,312,500                                                                                                                 10%

    GEOGRAPHICAL
&
MIGRANT           MEDIA
&
ENTERTAINMENT
    •   ay
yildiz                    •   groupe
rossel                 875,000                                                                                                                     7%
    •   chiama                       •   vlaamse
mediamaatschappij
    •   zoniq                        •   het
belang
van
limburg
    •   Ortel
mobile                 •   rtl
group                     437,500                                                                                                                     3%

    RETAILER                         BANKING
    •   Carrefour                    •   /                                   0                                                                                                                     0%
    •   aldi                                                                                2006                            2007                     2008                        2009
    •   phone
house                  TELECOM/CONVERGENCE
                                                                                                               %
of
total                          number
of
MVNO
clients
    •   allo
telecom                 •   Toledo
mobile

    DISCOUNT                         DATA
                                                                                                    BELGIUM                   FRANCE              GERMANY           NETHERLANDS               UK
    •   Simyo                        •   Mobile
viking
                                                                           Market
share            12%
(2009)                6,5%
(2010)          30%
(2010)          20%
(2009)          15%
(2006)
    BUSINESS
&
M2M                   CHARITY
    •   Base
business                •   ello
mobile                  Number
MVNO
companies               36                       40                103                    42                29

                                                                                                                                                                                                        14
Source
:
ARCEP,
Press
review,
IBPT,
Annual
reports,
BuddeComm
2008.
MARKET                                    KPN
ISSUES                                    OPPORTUNITIES                                   FINAL
STRATEGY                                   Q&A



  MVNO:
DISCRIMINATE
THE
MARKET
WITH
LAUNCH
OF
TWO
MVNOS
                                ACTION                                                                                                         MODEL

                     Launch
of
2
new
MVNO
                                     100M€                                                                                                                               CAGR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2012‐2016
                          • 21%
market
share
with
217
point

          RETAILER                                                                                                                                                                                                 15,8%
                            of
sales.                                           75M€
         (COLRUYT)        • Only
major
retailer
not
proposing

                            telecom
product
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12,2%
                          • In
depth
analysis
must
be
done
to
                  50M€
          MEDIA

                            iden]fy
best
brand
           &

                          • Poten]al
value
capturing
in

    ENTERTAINMENT                                                                                                                                                                                                  26,4%
                            content
value
chain                                 25M€

                          • With
one
(or
more)
of
the
4

                            biggest
retail
bank
          BANKS                                                                  0M€
                          • Legal
issues
must
be
taken
into
                           2011                   2012                     2013                2014                   2015                    2016
                            account                                                                                            Profit               Revenue                 Cost               Bull                Bear


                              RISK
FACTOR
                                                                                                                                                                                         NPV
(5
years
)

     • Have
to
convince
partners
before
other
MNO.
     • Full
MVNO
might
change
network.
     • Legal
issues
might
slow
down
launch
process.
                                                                                   Probability                                    Fit
factor
                                                                                                                                                                                  

72.097
k€
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           15
Source
:
Team
analysis,
wireless
Inteligence,
Vandercammen
M.
et
Jospin‐Penet
N.
La
distribu]on
2009,
Nielsen,
Belfin
(Insight
consul]ng),
Centre
pour
l’égaité
des
chances,
CIM,
astel.be,
bemobile.be.
MARKET                                    KPN
ISSUES                                            OPPORTUNITIES                                FINAL
STRATEGY                               Q&A



  SHIFT
TO
POSTPAID
&
REDUCTION
OF
CHURN:
INCREASE
TOP
AND
BOTTOM
LINE
                  HIGH
%
OF
PREPAID
WITH
LOW
ARPU                                                                                                EBITDA
margin
vs
churn
rate
‐
2010
                                                                                                             50%
                   Postpaid
vs
prepaid
Users ARPU
2010
€/month
                                                                                                             40%




                                                                                            EBITDA
margin
                                    20%                                                                      30%


                              80%                                                                            20%

                                                                                                             10%
                                                                                                                          Blended
churn
rate:          Postpaid
churn
rate:
                                                                                                             00%
                             36%                                                                                    0%         10%              20%          30%              40%           50%       60%    70%
                                     64%
                                                                                                                                      KPN
Belgium
Yearly
revenue
relation
to
%
of
prepaid
                                                                                                            1.5b€


                                                                                                             1b€

                                                                                          Revenue
                                     43%
                             57%
                                                                                                            0.5b€


                                                 0
€      13
€   25
€    38
€    50
€                                                                 Prepaid
revenue
         
Postpaid
revenue   Total
                                                                                                             0b€
                                    Postpaid                     ARPU Postpaid                                      0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
                                    Prepaid                      ARPU Prepaid
                                                                                                                                                                %
of
prepaid
                                                                                                                                                                                                               16
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Informa
Group,
Corporate
annual
reports,
Nokia
Siemens
Networks,
Company
websites.
MARKET                                     KPN
ISSUES                                    OPPORTUNITIES                           FINAL
STRATEGY                            Q&A



  SHIFT
TO
POSTPAID
&
REDUCTION
OF
CHURN:
DEVELOPMENT
OF
HOTSPOT
+
3G

                      peak
time
usage
of
actual
3G
network
in
urban
areas                                                          Mobile
broadband
cost
per
Bit
as
%
of
EDGE
                                                                                                                         100%
   100%                                                                                                     100%

    75%                                                                                                      75%

    50%                                                                                                      50%

                                                                                                             25%                        20%
    25%                                                                                                                                            15%
                                                                                                                                                                10%         6%            5%
                         Network
u]lisa]on
in
peak
]me           Limit
of
technology
(Noise
issue)
      0%                                                                                                      0%
           0%       5%        10%      15%      20%        25%       30%        35%       40%        45%                 EDGE      WCDMA
(3G) HSDPA
(3,5G)     HSPA+   WIFI
(Current)   LTE
(4G)




                          • Leasing
:
2000€
monthly
for
tower
+
150€
for
backhaul                                                   • CAPEX
:
50‐100€
per
Wi‐Fi
access
point
                                                                                                                      WIFI

        3G
TOWER          • Large
reach
(Few
kilometers
depending
on
spectrum
used)                                                 • Small
reach
(Max
100
meters)
                                                                                                                   (HOTSPOT)
                          • Low
speed
(Up
to
21,6
Mbytes
if
in
reach
of
3
sectors)                                                  • Fast
speed
(Up
to
100Mbytes
if
connected
to
FTTH)




                      LOW
DENSITY
OF
POPULATION
&
LOW
TRAFFIC                                                                   HIGH
DENSITY
OF
POPULATION
OR
HIGH
TRAFFIC


                                Con]nue
improvement
of
3G
network
coverage

                                (leverage
current
partnership
with
Mobistar)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   17
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Morgan
stanley
research,
AT&T
MARKET                                    KPN
ISSUES                                    OPPORTUNITIES                     FINAL
STRATEGY                           Q&A



  SHIFT
TO
POSTPAID
&
REDUCTION
OF
CHURN
                                ACTION                                                                                              MODEL

                      More
post‐paid
offers                                                                                                                                                CAGR
                                                                                                                                                                                        2012‐2016
                      • Bigger
price
range
for
postpaid
offers                       230M€

                                                                                                                                                                                          13,9%
                      Joint
Smartphone
sales                                        181M€
                      • Subven]on
of
150€/smartphone
to

     1
€                all
postpaid
clients                                        132M€
                                                                                                                                                                                          32,3%
                       Call
to
shik
                                                                                     83M€
                       • Train
vendors
to
propose
postpaid
                                                                                                                                                                                           3,7%
                       • Call
center
to
propose
1/year
an

                                                                                     34M€
                         alrac]ve
shiu
                        Wifi
hotspot
in
traffic
zone                                   ‐15M€
                        • Wifi
coverage
of
all
traffic
points                                    2011           2012            2013               2014           2015              2016
                        • 2400
antennas
in
3
years                                                                   Profit            Revenue           Cost             Bull            Bear


                            RISK
FACTOR
                                                                                                                                                                      NPV
(5
years
)

    • Wifi
deployment
may
take
more
]me.
    • Effec]veness
of
joint
sales
depends
on
other
MNO.
    • Segment
only
interested
in
prepaid
                                                                                    Probability                        Fit
factor
                                                                                                                                                           
207.837
k€

                                                                                                                                                                                                  18
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Annual
report,
Press
review,
Morgan
Stanley
Research,
IBPT,
Cisco.

MARKET                                  KPN
ISSUES                               OPPORTUNITIES                        FINAL
STRATEGY                   Q&A



  MULTIPLAY:
226M€
OPPORTUNITY
                       MARKET
SUCCESS                                                        KPN
CAPABILITIES

                   Exploding
Multiplay
Market
(HH)

 4,000k
HH                                                                    KPN
royal
                  +400k/year
 3,000k
HH                                                                      • Leader
in
all
four
markets
and
mul]play
in
NL

                                                                                • Proven
success
in
IPTV
 2,000k
HH

 1,000k
HH

     0k
HH
                2009     2010    2011     2012     2013    2014                                                                                      Become
a
                                                                                                                                                    major
player

   71%
of
HH
will
have
a
mul]play
package
by
2014                                                                                                      in
the

                                                                                                                                                     muldplay
             Mobistar
‐
Number
of
Residential
fix
clients
                                                                                                                                                      
market
  60,000
                               +45%
  45,000

  30,000

  15,000

        0
                       2009                        2010
                Fixed
broadband
+
voice        Starpack

                                                                                                                                                                          19
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Mobistar
presenta]on
to
analysts
2010,
Informa
Group,
BCG.
MARKET                                   KPN
ISSUES                                    OPPORTUNITIES                                  FINAL
STRATEGY                                  Q&A



  MULTIPLAY:
226M€
OPPORTUNITY
                                ACTION                                                                                                       MODEL

   Cover
all
muldplay
segments                                                                                                                                                                               CAGR
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2012‐2016
                                                                                  270M€
                          • Add
a
TV
offer
to
launch
TV

                            mul]play
ranges
(71%
of
market)
                          • Fast
follow
Mobistar’s
4‐play
                                                                                                                                                   35,6%
                                                                                  202M€
                            offer

                                                                                  133M€
                                                                                                                                                                                                             55,4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                             24,7%
  Launch
of
a
markedng
campaign
to
raise
awareness
                                                                                   65M€
     •   5M€
first
year
then
2,5M€
     •   Focus
on
3‐play
and
4‐play
     •   Mass
media
(TV,
Billboards,
Press)                                         ‐4M€
     •   POS                                                                               2011                 2012                 2013                   2014                  2015              2016
     •   Direct
marke]ng
(KPN
user
calls)                                                                                    Profit                Revenue                  Cost             Bull            Bear


                              RISK
FACTOR
                                                                                                                                                                                         NPV
(5
years
)

     • Increased
compe]]on
in
mul]play
     • Late
entrance
     • 5
years
of
high
growth
(leads
to
satura]on)
                                                                                  Probability                                   Fit
factor
                                                                                                                                                                              
226.405
k€
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Telenet
presenta]on
to
analysts
2008‐2010,
Mobistar
website,
The
Economist
Business
intelligence
operators
annual
reports,
IBPT,
Morgan
Stanley.
STRATEGIC
OPPORTUNITIES
                          {
                          ‣ CURRENT
REVENUE
STREAMS

                          ‣NEW
REVENUE
STREAMS
MARKET                            KPN
ISSUES                                   OPPORTUNITIES                           FINAL
STRATEGY                           Q&A


       VALUE
CHAIN
                                                                                            Financial
Services:
26.600M€

                                           Hardware                                                       Network                                                      Content

                      6b€                                                            6b€                                                             6b€

                  4.8b€                                                         4.8b€                                                            4.8b€
Market
Size




                  3.6b€                                                         3.6b€                                                            3.6b€

                  2.4b€                                                         2.4b€                                                            2.4b€

                  1.2b€                                                         1.2b€                                                            1.2b€

                      0b€                                                            0b€                                                             0b€
                             IT
Services      Hardware       PC                            Wireless      Wireline       TV       Multiplay                 Software   Gambling Music/VideoVideo
Games
Share




                                18%             13%          5%                              27%          11%          7,5%            2,8%                    10%      7,4%       1,9%        1,1%




                  •   High
value
markets.                                                                                                        • High
value
in
the
souware
and
gambling

                                                                                 • Decreasing
ARPUs
over
]me.
                  •   Coupled
offers
have
been
legalized
and
start
                                                                                 market.
Industry
Trends




                                                                                 • Mobile
market
is
saturated
(121%

                      coming
to
the
market.                                                                                                      • Other
content
markets
are
very
small.
                                                                                   penetra]on).
                  •   Low
PC
penetra]on
53,5%

(vs
75%
for
EU)
                                                                                  • Belgacom
is
making
a
move
towards
video

                                                                                 • Government
conflict
of
interest
due
to

                      expected
to
rise
to
71,2
by
2014.                                                                                            games.
                                                                                   53,3%
stake
in
Belgacom.
                  •   0,7%
of
GDP
spend
on
hardware.                                                                                             • There
is
a
growing
need
for
content
on

                                                                                 • Convergence
strategy.
                  •   Hardware
private
labels
are
rising
(eg:medion).                                                                              demand.

                                                                                                                                                                                                        22
Source:
Team
analysis,
Economist
Intelligence
Unit,
IBPT,
Informa
Group,
GfK/BEA,
Sta]s]que
du
système
financier
Belge,
Press
review.
MARKET                                  KPN
ISSUES                                    OPPORTUNITIES                                  FINAL
STRATEGY                                  Q&A



  HARDWARE
PRIVATE
LABEL
16M€
OPPORTUNITY
                               ACTION                                                                                                       MODEL
                                                                               15,000€K
                    ZTE
as
partner                                                                                                                                                                             CAGR
                                                                                                                                                                                                             2012‐2016
                    • 79€
for
a
classic
phone
(17%
discount)
                    • 149€
for
a
smartphone
(40%
discount)                                                                                                                                                     7,9%
                                                                               11,250€K
                    • Will
drive
addi]onal
traffic
to
store

                      due
to
exclusivity
effect
                                                                                7,500€K
                                                                                                                                                                                                               7,9%
                    Image
:
ZTE
for
Movistar
La]n
America
                                                                                                                                                                                                               7,9%
                                                                                3,750€K

   Retail
private
label
margin
advantage
                                                                                    0€K
          Brand                          90
%                      10
%
                                                                                          2011                2012                  2013                 2014                 2015                 2016
   Private
Label                  70
%                      30
%
                                                                                                                          EBIT             Revenues          Costs           EBIT
‐
Bull         EBIT
‐
Bear


                           RISK
FACTOR
                                                                                                                                                                                      NPV
(5
years
)

     • Low
profit.
     • Time
consuming
partnership.
     • New
market.
                                                                                 Probability                                     Fit
factor
                                                                                                                                                                               16.572k€
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      23
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Morgan
Stanley
2009,
McKinsey
handset
market
research
2009,
Gy
retail
and
technology

Benelux
2009,
BCG
Private
label
cost
advantage,
Informa
Group,
cellulartec.com,
ZTE
website.
MARKET                                   KPN
ISSUES                      OPPORTUNITIES                   FINAL
STRATEGY                   Q&A



  UNLEASH
THE
PING‐PING
15M€
POTENTIAL
                               ACTION                                                                          MODEL
                                                                    12,000€K
   Enter
the
NFC
payment
market                                                                                                                                   CAGR
                                                                                                                                                                2012‐2016
                     • Consumer
use
of
cash
is

                       predicted
to
decrease                                                                                                                       42%
                                                                     9,000€K
                     • First
step
in
the
26,6
billion
                                                                                                            43,7%
                       financial
services
market
                                                                     6,000€K
  Seal
a
fair
deal
with
other
operators
   • 33%
of
revenues
for
each
   • Shared
ownership
of
Tunz/Ping‐ping                              3,000€K


  Launch
of
a
markedng
campaign
to
raise
awareness                                                                                                                31,7%

   • 300k€
total
investment
by
all
3
operators                          0€K
   • Internet
adver]sing
(websites,
social
networks)                           2011          2012       2013                  2014     2015              2016
   • POS                                                                                    EBIT                   Revenues                   Costs


                           RISK
FACTOR
                                                                                                                                              NPV
(5
years
)

     • Deal
between
telecom
operators
is
s]ll
unclear.
     • Proton
rela]ve
failure
(‐14%)
last
year.
     • New
market.
                                                                        Probability                   Fit
factor
                                                                                                                                       15.336k€
                                                                                                                                                                         24
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Company
website,
Gartner
2010,
Eurostat.

MARKET                                  KPN
ISSUES                                   OPPORTUNITIES                          FINAL
STRATEGY                      Q&A



  LAUNCH
OF
A
KPN
APP‐STORE
WITH
GAMBLING
AS
23M€
CASH
COW
                               ACTION                                                                                               MODEL

  Launch
of
a
kpn
app‐store                                                 15,000€K
                                                                                                                                                                                        CAGR
                                                                                                                                                                                      2012‐2016
   • Launch
of
exclusive
apps
with
gambling
as
flagship
   • Partnerships
with
other
app‐stores
(ovi,
android...)                                                                                                                              39,1%
                                                                            11,250€K
   • Low
cost
adver]sing
campaign
(SMS),
POS                                                                                                                                           45,2%


  Gambling
app
in
partnership
with
Loterie
nadonale                          7,500€K
    • Apps
based
on
Loterie
Na]onale
games
    • Gamble
by
SMS
    • Directly
charged
on
phone
bill                                         3,750€K


  Low
costs
markedng
campaign                                                                                                                                                              0%
                                                                                 0€K
    • SMS                                                                              2011               2012             2013               2014           2015             2016
    • POS
    • Base/partners
website                                                                                       EBIT            Revenues           Costs    EBIT
Bull        EBIT
Bear


                           RISK
FACTOR
                                                                                                                                                                    NPV
(5
years
)

        • New
market.
        • Slower
adop]on
of
e‐gambling.
        • Gambling
brand
damage.
                                                                                 Probability                             Fit
factor
                                                                                                                                                              22.979k€
                                                                                                                                                                                                25
Source
:
Team
analysis,
Lolerie
na]onale
annual
report
2009,
Lolerie
Na]onale
website,
Juniper
reseach.
FINAL
STRATEGY
MARKET                     KPN
ISSUES                             OPPORTUNITIES                      FINAL
STRATEGY                          Q&A


  FINAL
STRATEGY
ASSESSMENT

                                                      STRATEGY
ASSESSMENT
MATRIX                                                             RANKING


                             Increased
value
at
stake                                                                                         Shik
to
postpaid         #1

                5                                                                                     Shik
to
postpaid              MVNO
  Probability




                                                                                                                                              Muldplay                 #2



                4                                                  Muldplay
                                                                                                                                              MVNO                     #3




                                                                                                                                              Ping‐ping                #4
                3
                                              App
store/Gambling          Ping‐ping


                                                                                                                                              App‐store/Gambling       #5

                2

                                                                                                                                              Hardware
PL              #6


                                              Hardware
PL
                1
                    1                     2                           3                                     4                            5           +
invest
in
4G
                                                                                                                                   Fit
                                                                                                                                                                            27
Source
:
Team
analysis.
MARKET                                       KPN
ISSUES                                      OPPORTUNITIES                                    FINAL
STRATEGY                                      Q&A



  FINAL
STRATEGY:
KPN
EBIT
WATERFALL

    400M€
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      82,5   370,4



                                                                                                                                                                            79,2   316,4

    300M€                                                                                                                                                                                  ‐0,8
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ‐0,2
                                                                                                                                    85,7   260,4                                                            ‐27,6

                2009
EBIT
level                                                                                                                     ‐0,7    ‐7,0
                                                                                                                                                                    ‐15,5
                                                                                         ‐109,9   204,9
    200M€
                                                  142,4   175,2                                           ‐
0,8   ‐
0,3
                171,5
                                                                  ‐0,8                                                    ‐
28,7
                          ‐2,1
                                 ‐19,6
                                                                         ‐35,7

    100M€
                                                                                 ‐43,8




                                         ‐116,9
      0M€
               2011                                       2012                                    2013                                     2014                                    2015                                      2016

                  Region
1        End
of
year
EBIT         y/y
organic
change
in
EBIT       y/y
addi]onal
regula]on
cost           y/y
addi]onal
cost
of
projects       y/y
addi]onal
revenue
of
projects           Un]tled
1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     28
Source
:
Team
analysis.
MARKET              KPN
ISSUES      OPPORTUNITIES   FINAL
STRATEGY              Q&A



WRAP‐UP




      Shik
to
postpaid
                                        Net
5
year
NPV
  •
  •   Muldplay
                                                                  • Terminadon
rates


                                        280M€

  •   MVNO
                                                                  • 4th
entrant
  •   Ping‐ping
                                                                  • Data
overload
  •   App‐store/Gambling
  •   4G




                                                                                             29
CÉLINE
ABI
ABDALLAH
‐
PABLO
CASTIEL
GAZIER
‐
EUGÉNIE
VERHASSELT
‐
JEAN‐CHARLES
VANDERLINDEN

STRATEGY
SEMINAR
KPN
GROUP
BELGIUM
‐
SETTING
THE
GROUNDS
FOR
FUTURE
GROWTH




                                                                                              30

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Kpn Group Belgium - Strategy Seminar presentation

  • 2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS WE
WOULD
LIKE
TO
THANK: THE
SOLVAY
BRUSSELS
SCHOOL
OF
ECONOMICS
AND
MANAGEMENT OUR
PROFESSOR
OLIVIER
HAMOIR OUR
ASSISTANT
NICOLAS
LEEUW
 JEAN‐PAUL
PHILIPPOT
(RTBF
GENERAL
ADMINISTRATOR) FOR
THEIR
CONSTRUCTIVE
FEEDBACK,
VALUABLE
INSIGHTS
AND
RICH
LEARNING
EXPERIENCE THE
INFORMA
GROUP THOMAS
WEHMEIER
(PRINCIPAL
ANALYST,
MOBILE
OPERATORS) DEXTER
THILIEN
(RESEARCH
ANALYST,
MOBILE
OPERATORS) KALYAN
MEDAPATI
(SENIOR
ANALYST,
FIXED
TELECOMMUNICATIONS) FOR
THEIR
CONTINUOUS
SUPPORT
AND
PROVIDING
BEST
IN
CLASS
INTELLIGENCE THE
BELGIAN
INSTITUTE
FOR
POST
AND
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
(BIPT) DIRK
APPELMANS
(SPOKESMAN) FOR
HELPING
US
UNDERSTANDING
THE
COMPLEX
BELGIAN
TELECOM
LANDSCAPE
AND
INVITING
US
TO
THE
IBPT
INDUSTRY
 INFORMATION
EVENT
ON
THE
UPCOMING
3G
AND
4G
AUCTION
IN
BELGIUM
  • 3. { ‣ MARKET
OVERVIEW ‣ KPN
ISSUES GOALS
FOR
TODAY ‣ OPPORTUNITIES ‣ FINAL
STRATEGY ‣ Q&A
SESSION
  • 4. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MARKET
OVERVIEW:
BUSINESS
LANDSCAPE
 TELENET B2C
Telecom
market
(bn€)
‐
2009 Service Cable 2.609 1.879 809 Revenue €1,299
b€ 7% Reach Flanders BELGACOM 27% 30% Service Fixed
line
+mobile 33% Revenue €6,60
b€ 4% 34% 2% Reach Na]onwide 53% 55% 39% KPN
GROUP
BELGIUM 16% Service Mobile Mobile Fixed TV NUMERICABLE Revenue €0,785
b€ Service Cable B2B
Telecom
market
(bn€)
‐
2009 Reach Na]onwide 1.269 1.885 Revenue €0,046
b€ 3% Reach Brussels 27% 34% 4% Others 9% Telenet KPN
Group Mobistar VOO MOBISTAR Belgacom 63% 60% Service Cable Service Mobile Revenue €0,143
b€ Revenue €1,665
b€ Reach Walonia Reach Na]onwide Mobile Fixed 4 Source
:
Annual
Reports
2009/2010,
Company
websites,
IDATE,
Jupiter.
  • 5. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MARKET
OVERVIEW:
MARKET
TRENDS Broadband
&
TV
Market
(M
subscriptions) Mobile
Phone
Market
(M
subscriptions) 5M 14M Flat
Markets 4M 11M 3M 7M 1M 4M TV
market Broadband
market Number
of
Households Mobile
phone
market Belgian
popula]on 0M 0M 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E 2016E 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E 2016E Fixed
Phone
Market
(M
subscriptions) Multiplay
Market
(M
subscriptions) 5M 5M Down
Market Up
Market 4M 4M 3M 3M 1M 1M Fixed
phone
market Number
of
Households Mul]play
market Number
of
Households 0M 0M 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014E 2016E 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 5 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Informa
Group,
Company
annual
reports,
The
Economist
Business
Intelligence.
  • 6. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MARKET
OVERVIEW:
KPN
GROUP
BELGIUM MARKET
SHARE KPIs ARPU
mobile
(€/month) Revenue
break‐down
2009
(%) «KPN

is
a
mobile
telecommunicaHon
provider
 20.0
€ posiHoned
as
an
innovator
in
products
and
 15.0
€ services
via
a
segmented,
mulH‐brand
approach.» B2C B2B 10.0
€ 95% 5.0
€ 0
€ 2008 2009 2010 Belgium
in
KPN
Royal Mobile
Market
share
‐
volume
and
value Key
financial
indicators
(m€) in
revenue in
EBITDA 30
% 900M€ 5% 5% 23
% 675M€ 15
% 450M€ 8
% 225M€ 0
% 0M€ 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 95% 95% Subscrip]ons
(#) Value
(€) Total
revenue Ebitda Point
of
Sale
(#) Fixed
Market
share
‐
volume Capex
(m€/y)
and
%revenue 800 800 4.6
% 17% 150M€ 600 4.4
% 13% 113M€ 400 4.3
% 9% 75M€ 200 69 59 4.1
% 4% 38M€ 0 3.9
% 0% 0M€ Dealers Allo
Telecom Base
Shops 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 6 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Annual
reports,
IBPT,
Press
releases.
  • 8. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MOBILE:
4TH
ENTRANT
WILL
CAPTURE
8,3%
MARKET
SHARE
BY
2016 RATIONAL MODEL
‐
CABLE
OPERATOR • Auc]on
in
2.1GHz
and
1,8Ghz
band
will
start
in
 5,000,000 July
2011
for
poten]al
4th
entrant
(3G
license) • License
is
required
to
launch
within
18
month
 3,750,000 Number
of
B2C
clients (20%
coverage
provide
na]onal
roaming) CABLE
OPERATOR 2,500,000 • High
investment
in
license
and
 infrastructure
is
required. 1,250,000 Market
share
:
8,28% • But
s]ll
alrac]ve
:
 ‐ Convergence
as
a
LT
interest. ‐ Defensive
move
against
Mobistar
 0 and
KPN Dec‐11 Jun‐12 Dec‐12 Jun‐13 Dec‐13 Jun‐14 Dec‐14 Jun‐15 Dec‐15 Jun‐16 Dec‐16 Belgacom
Mobile Mobistar KPN
Group
Belgium Fourth
entrant INTERNATIONAL
PLAYER • Small
market
with
low
growth. • But
s]ll
alrac]ve
:
 • Very
high
probability
that
cable
operators
buy
a
license
together
(coverage
request) ‐ High
%
of
prepaid. • Worst
case
scenario
(entry
of
cable
operator)
taken
into
account
in
all
models. ‐ Belgian
=
Price
sensi]ve
belgian. • Too
late
to
take
any
acdon. ‐ Low
switching
cost
 8 Source
:
Team
Analysis,
Informa
Group,
The
Economist
Business
Intelligence,
KPN
Investor
Presenta]on,
Early
mover
advantage
and
empirical
analysis
of
european
mobile
phone
market,
Meryl
Lynch
mmC.
  • 9. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MOBILE:
TERMINATION
RATES
TO
NEGATIVE
IMPACT
OF
‐168M€
NPV RATIONAL MODEL 20.0 19.5 20 18.0 18.5 18.5 19.0 300M€ 15 14.0 12.0 11.4 225M€ 10 5.7 150M€ 4.8 5 Proximus 2.9 Mobistar KPN
Group
Belgium 1.1 75M€ 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 MTR
Asymmetry
in
Europe
 0M€ 60% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Diff
btw
Op1
&
Op2 Revenue Profit Cost 45% Diff
btw
Op1
&
Op3 30% • Trial
in
progress
but
low
chances
of
success 15% • Nega]ve
impact
of
‐168M€
NPV
over
5
years
(2011‐2016) 0% • No
acdon
can
be
taken UK Austria Spain Germany
 Ireland
 Belgium
 9 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Informa
Group,
Corporate
annual
reports,
IBPT.
  • 10. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MOBILE:
GROWING
DEMAND
FOR
MOBILE
DATA Total
mobile
data
traffic
per
user
global
(MB
per
month) peak
time
usage
of
actual
3G
network
in
urban
areas 500MB 100% 407MB 375MB 75% 250MB 210MB 50% 100MB 125MB 46MB 9MB 20MB 25% 0MB 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 0% TOTAL Voice Video P2P Data 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% CAGR
(2008‐2013E) 115% 97% 137% 87% 98% Network
u]lisa]on
in
peak
]me Limit
of
technology
(Noise
issue) • Need
for
data
will
be
mul]plied
by
4
by
2013 • Average
CAGR
is
above
114% • Need
to
increase
the
network
capacity 10 Source
:
Comscore,
Morgan
stanley
research,
AT&T,
Cisco
2008,
Ovum.

  • 12. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A SHOULD
KPN
EXIT
THE
BELGIAN
MARKET? KPI MATURE
MARKET
EBITDA
MARGIN
BENCHMARK Orange
(France
Telecom) KPN
GB
‐
Free
Cash
Flow 60% 130M€ 48% 98M€ 35% 65M€ 33M€ 23% 0M€ 10% KPN
Royal
should
keep
its
Belgian
subsidiary 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Orange
ES Orange
PL BASE
BE Orange
FR • KPN
GB
KPI
are
in
KPN
Royal
benchmark Change
in
NOPAT
+
DA
/
Capex • KPN
GB:
5%
revenue
and
5%
EBITDA
of
KPN Vodaphone • 10,6%
Free
Cash
Flow
CAGR 60% 60% • KPN
GB
is
in
line
with
EU
EBITDA
margins 45% 30% 15% 48% 0% ‐15% 35% ‐30% ‐45% 23% ‐60% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10% Voda
UK BASE
BE Voda
ES Voda
IT Belgium Germany Netherlands Total 12 Source
:
Team
analysis,
NBB,
Belfirst,
Companies
Annual
reports.
  • 13. STRATEGIC
OPPORTUNITIES { ‣CURRENT
REVENUE
STREAMS ‣ NEW
REVENUE
STREAMS
  • 14. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MVNO:
DISCRIMINATE
THE
MARKET
WITH
LAUNCH
OF
TWO
MVNOS MVNO
MARKET
SEGMENTS Clients
number
(k)
and
MVNO
% 1,750,000 13% 1,312,500 10% GEOGRAPHICAL
&
MIGRANT MEDIA
&
ENTERTAINMENT • ay
yildiz • groupe
rossel 875,000 7% • chiama • vlaamse
mediamaatschappij • zoniq • het
belang
van
limburg • Ortel
mobile • rtl
group 437,500 3% RETAILER BANKING • Carrefour • / 0 0% • aldi 2006 2007 2008 2009 • phone
house TELECOM/CONVERGENCE %
of
total number
of
MVNO
clients • allo
telecom • Toledo
mobile DISCOUNT DATA BELGIUM FRANCE GERMANY NETHERLANDS UK • Simyo • Mobile
viking Market
share 12%
(2009) 6,5%
(2010) 30%
(2010) 20%
(2009) 15%
(2006) BUSINESS
&
M2M CHARITY • Base
business • ello
mobile Number
MVNO
companies 36 40 103 42 29 14 Source
:
ARCEP,
Press
review,
IBPT,
Annual
reports,
BuddeComm
2008.
  • 15. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MVNO:
DISCRIMINATE
THE
MARKET
WITH
LAUNCH
OF
TWO
MVNOS ACTION MODEL Launch
of
2
new
MVNO
 100M€ CAGR 2012‐2016 • 21%
market
share
with
217
point
 RETAILER 15,8% of
sales. 75M€ (COLRUYT) • Only
major
retailer
not
proposing
 telecom
product 12,2% • In
depth
analysis
must
be
done
to
 50M€ MEDIA
 iden]fy
best
brand &
 • Poten]al
value
capturing
in
 ENTERTAINMENT 26,4% content
value
chain 25M€ • With
one
(or
more)
of
the
4
 biggest
retail
bank BANKS 0M€ • Legal
issues
must
be
taken
into
 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 account Profit Revenue Cost Bull Bear RISK
FACTOR NPV
(5
years
)
 • Have
to
convince
partners
before
other
MNO. • Full
MVNO
might
change
network. • Legal
issues
might
slow
down
launch
process. Probability Fit
factor 

72.097
k€ 15 Source
:
Team
analysis,
wireless
Inteligence,
Vandercammen
M.
et
Jospin‐Penet
N.
La
distribu]on
2009,
Nielsen,
Belfin
(Insight
consul]ng),
Centre
pour
l’égaité
des
chances,
CIM,
astel.be,
bemobile.be.
  • 16. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A SHIFT
TO
POSTPAID
&
REDUCTION
OF
CHURN:
INCREASE
TOP
AND
BOTTOM
LINE HIGH
%
OF
PREPAID
WITH
LOW
ARPU EBITDA
margin
vs
churn
rate
‐
2010 50% Postpaid
vs
prepaid
Users ARPU
2010
€/month 40% EBITDA
margin 20% 30% 80% 20% 10% Blended
churn
rate: Postpaid
churn
rate: 00% 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 64% KPN
Belgium
Yearly
revenue
relation
to
%
of
prepaid 1.5b€ 1b€ Revenue 43% 57% 0.5b€ 0
€ 13
€ 25
€ 38
€ 50
€ Prepaid
revenue
 
Postpaid
revenue Total 0b€ Postpaid ARPU Postpaid 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Prepaid ARPU Prepaid %
of
prepaid 16 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Informa
Group,
Corporate
annual
reports,
Nokia
Siemens
Networks,
Company
websites.
  • 17. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A SHIFT
TO
POSTPAID
&
REDUCTION
OF
CHURN:
DEVELOPMENT
OF
HOTSPOT
+
3G peak
time
usage
of
actual
3G
network
in
urban
areas Mobile
broadband
cost
per
Bit
as
%
of
EDGE 100% 100% 100% 75% 75% 50% 50% 25% 20% 25% 15% 10% 6% 5% Network
u]lisa]on
in
peak
]me Limit
of
technology
(Noise
issue) 0% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% EDGE WCDMA
(3G) HSDPA
(3,5G) HSPA+ WIFI
(Current) LTE
(4G) • Leasing
:
2000€
monthly
for
tower
+
150€
for
backhaul • CAPEX
:
50‐100€
per
Wi‐Fi
access
point WIFI
 3G
TOWER • Large
reach
(Few
kilometers
depending
on
spectrum
used) • Small
reach
(Max
100
meters) (HOTSPOT) • Low
speed
(Up
to
21,6
Mbytes
if
in
reach
of
3
sectors) • Fast
speed
(Up
to
100Mbytes
if
connected
to
FTTH) LOW
DENSITY
OF
POPULATION
&
LOW
TRAFFIC HIGH
DENSITY
OF
POPULATION
OR
HIGH
TRAFFIC Con]nue
improvement
of
3G
network
coverage
 (leverage
current
partnership
with
Mobistar) 17 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Morgan
stanley
research,
AT&T
  • 18. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A SHIFT
TO
POSTPAID
&
REDUCTION
OF
CHURN ACTION MODEL More
post‐paid
offers CAGR 2012‐2016 • Bigger
price
range
for
postpaid
offers 230M€ 13,9% Joint
Smartphone
sales 181M€ • Subven]on
of
150€/smartphone
to
 1
€ all
postpaid
clients 132M€ 32,3% Call
to
shik 83M€ • Train
vendors
to
propose
postpaid 3,7% • Call
center
to
propose
1/year
an
 34M€ alrac]ve
shiu Wifi
hotspot
in
traffic
zone ‐15M€ • Wifi
coverage
of
all
traffic
points 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • 2400
antennas
in
3
years Profit Revenue Cost Bull Bear RISK
FACTOR NPV
(5
years
)
 • Wifi
deployment
may
take
more
]me. • Effec]veness
of
joint
sales
depends
on
other
MNO. • Segment
only
interested
in
prepaid Probability Fit
factor 
207.837
k€
 18 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Annual
report,
Press
review,
Morgan
Stanley
Research,
IBPT,
Cisco.

  • 19. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MULTIPLAY:
226M€
OPPORTUNITY MARKET
SUCCESS KPN
CAPABILITIES Exploding
Multiplay
Market
(HH)
 4,000k
HH KPN
royal +400k/year 3,000k
HH • Leader
in
all
four
markets
and
mul]play
in
NL
 • Proven
success
in
IPTV 2,000k
HH 1,000k
HH 0k
HH 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Become
a major
player
 71%
of
HH
will
have
a
mul]play
package
by
2014 in
the
 muldplay Mobistar
‐
Number
of
Residential
fix
clients 
market 60,000 +45% 45,000 30,000 15,000 0 2009 2010 Fixed
broadband
+
voice Starpack 19 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Mobistar
presenta]on
to
analysts
2010,
Informa
Group,
BCG.
  • 20. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A MULTIPLAY:
226M€
OPPORTUNITY ACTION MODEL Cover
all
muldplay
segments CAGR 2012‐2016 270M€ • Add
a
TV
offer
to
launch
TV
 mul]play
ranges
(71%
of
market) • Fast
follow
Mobistar’s
4‐play
 35,6% 202M€ offer 133M€ 55,4% 24,7% Launch
of
a
markedng
campaign
to
raise
awareness 65M€ • 5M€
first
year
then
2,5M€ • Focus
on
3‐play
and
4‐play • Mass
media
(TV,
Billboards,
Press) ‐4M€ • POS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • Direct
marke]ng
(KPN
user
calls) Profit Revenue Cost Bull Bear RISK
FACTOR NPV
(5
years
)
 • Increased
compe]]on
in
mul]play • Late
entrance • 5
years
of
high
growth
(leads
to
satura]on) Probability Fit
factor 
226.405
k€ 20 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Telenet
presenta]on
to
analysts
2008‐2010,
Mobistar
website,
The
Economist
Business
intelligence
operators
annual
reports,
IBPT,
Morgan
Stanley.
  • 21. STRATEGIC
OPPORTUNITIES { ‣ CURRENT
REVENUE
STREAMS ‣NEW
REVENUE
STREAMS
  • 22. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A VALUE
CHAIN Financial
Services:
26.600M€ Hardware Network Content 6b€ 6b€ 6b€ 4.8b€ 4.8b€ 4.8b€ Market
Size 3.6b€ 3.6b€ 3.6b€ 2.4b€ 2.4b€ 2.4b€ 1.2b€ 1.2b€ 1.2b€ 0b€ 0b€ 0b€ IT
Services Hardware PC Wireless Wireline TV Multiplay Software Gambling Music/VideoVideo
Games Share 18% 13% 5% 27% 11% 7,5% 2,8% 10% 7,4% 1,9% 1,1% • High
value
markets. • High
value
in
the
souware
and
gambling
 • Decreasing
ARPUs
over
]me. • Coupled
offers
have
been
legalized
and
start
 market. Industry
Trends • Mobile
market
is
saturated
(121%
 coming
to
the
market. • Other
content
markets
are
very
small. penetra]on). • Low
PC
penetra]on
53,5%

(vs
75%
for
EU)
 • Belgacom
is
making
a
move
towards
video
 • Government
conflict
of
interest
due
to
 expected
to
rise
to
71,2
by
2014. games. 53,3%
stake
in
Belgacom. • 0,7%
of
GDP
spend
on
hardware. • There
is
a
growing
need
for
content
on
 • Convergence
strategy. • Hardware
private
labels
are
rising
(eg:medion). demand. 22 Source:
Team
analysis,
Economist
Intelligence
Unit,
IBPT,
Informa
Group,
GfK/BEA,
Sta]s]que
du
système
financier
Belge,
Press
review.
  • 23. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A HARDWARE
PRIVATE
LABEL
16M€
OPPORTUNITY ACTION MODEL 15,000€K ZTE
as
partner CAGR 2012‐2016 • 79€
for
a
classic
phone
(17%
discount) • 149€
for
a
smartphone
(40%
discount) 7,9% 11,250€K • Will
drive
addi]onal
traffic
to
store
 due
to
exclusivity
effect 7,500€K 7,9% Image
:
ZTE
for
Movistar
La]n
America 7,9% 3,750€K Retail
private
label
margin
advantage 0€K Brand 90
% 10
% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Private
Label 70
% 30
% EBIT Revenues Costs EBIT
‐
Bull EBIT
‐
Bear RISK
FACTOR NPV
(5
years
)
 • Low
profit. • Time
consuming
partnership. • New
market. Probability Fit
factor 16.572k€ 23 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Morgan
Stanley
2009,
McKinsey
handset
market
research
2009,
Gy
retail
and
technology

Benelux
2009,
BCG
Private
label
cost
advantage,
Informa
Group,
cellulartec.com,
ZTE
website.
  • 24. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A UNLEASH
THE
PING‐PING
15M€
POTENTIAL ACTION MODEL 12,000€K Enter
the
NFC
payment
market CAGR 2012‐2016 • Consumer
use
of
cash
is
 predicted
to
decrease 42% 9,000€K • First
step
in
the
26,6
billion
 43,7% financial
services
market 6,000€K Seal
a
fair
deal
with
other
operators • 33%
of
revenues
for
each • Shared
ownership
of
Tunz/Ping‐ping 3,000€K Launch
of
a
markedng
campaign
to
raise
awareness 31,7% • 300k€
total
investment
by
all
3
operators 0€K • Internet
adver]sing
(websites,
social
networks) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • POS EBIT Revenues Costs RISK
FACTOR NPV
(5
years
)
 • Deal
between
telecom
operators
is
s]ll
unclear. • Proton
rela]ve
failure
(‐14%)
last
year. • New
market. Probability Fit
factor 15.336k€ 24 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Company
website,
Gartner
2010,
Eurostat.

  • 25. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A LAUNCH
OF
A
KPN
APP‐STORE
WITH
GAMBLING
AS
23M€
CASH
COW ACTION MODEL Launch
of
a
kpn
app‐store 15,000€K CAGR 2012‐2016 • Launch
of
exclusive
apps
with
gambling
as
flagship • Partnerships
with
other
app‐stores
(ovi,
android...) 39,1% 11,250€K • Low
cost
adver]sing
campaign
(SMS),
POS 45,2% Gambling
app
in
partnership
with
Loterie
nadonale 7,500€K • Apps
based
on
Loterie
Na]onale
games • Gamble
by
SMS • Directly
charged
on
phone
bill 3,750€K Low
costs
markedng
campaign 0% 0€K • SMS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • POS • Base/partners
website EBIT Revenues Costs EBIT
Bull EBIT
Bear RISK
FACTOR NPV
(5
years
)
 • New
market. • Slower
adop]on
of
e‐gambling. • Gambling
brand
damage. Probability Fit
factor 22.979k€ 25 Source
:
Team
analysis,
Lolerie
na]onale
annual
report
2009,
Lolerie
Na]onale
website,
Juniper
reseach.
  • 27. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A FINAL
STRATEGY
ASSESSMENT STRATEGY
ASSESSMENT
MATRIX RANKING Increased
value
at
stake Shik
to
postpaid #1 5 Shik
to
postpaid MVNO Probability Muldplay #2 4 Muldplay MVNO #3 Ping‐ping #4 3 App
store/Gambling Ping‐ping App‐store/Gambling #5 2 Hardware
PL #6 Hardware
PL 1 1 2 3 4 5 +
invest
in
4G Fit 27 Source
:
Team
analysis.
  • 28. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A FINAL
STRATEGY:
KPN
EBIT
WATERFALL 400M€ 82,5 370,4 79,2 316,4 300M€ ‐0,8 ‐0,2 85,7 260,4 ‐27,6 2009
EBIT
level ‐0,7 ‐7,0 ‐15,5 ‐109,9 204,9 200M€ 142,4 175,2 ‐
0,8 ‐
0,3 171,5 ‐0,8 ‐
28,7 ‐2,1 ‐19,6 ‐35,7 100M€ ‐43,8 ‐116,9 0M€ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Region
1 End
of
year
EBIT y/y
organic
change
in
EBIT y/y
addi]onal
regula]on
cost y/y
addi]onal
cost
of
projects y/y
addi]onal
revenue
of
projects Un]tled
1 28 Source
:
Team
analysis.
  • 29. MARKET KPN
ISSUES OPPORTUNITIES FINAL
STRATEGY Q&A WRAP‐UP Shik
to
postpaid Net
5
year
NPV • • Muldplay • Terminadon
rates 280M€
 • MVNO • 4th
entrant • Ping‐ping • Data
overload • App‐store/Gambling • 4G 29

Hinweis der Redaktion

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  12. Highly positive NPV for recomended strategy\n
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  19. KPN has had a heavy success in IPTV services in the Netherlands with:\na constant progress in quaterly addings\n50k quaterly net addings after 3 years\n
  20. ajouter le CAGR en bas?\n
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  23. Double win:\n- Advertising costs and R&D give the 20% advantage (we have assumed we made 0% margin before)\n- The ZTE phones are much cheaper than the other phones 105€ average smartphone retail price vs 241€ for Belgium (56,4%) discount\n
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