Brandeis University Proseminar presentation by Oxfam's Duncan Green from March 2012. (6/6)

1. Your Assignment: Some Tools for
Exploring Power and Change
Duncan Green
Brandeis Proseminar
March 2012
Lecture 6

2. General Points
 Multiple ways of understanding change
 Power lens a good place to start
 Are you trying to understand ‘from the
outside’? - either past or potential future
change
 Or are you a would-be change agent
trying to design an influencing strategy?
– Tools different in each case

3. What is Power?
 Power as force field
 Ways of looking at power
– Visibility
– Spaces
– Four powers

4. LOOKING FROM THE
OUTSIDE

6. Four Components of Change
 Context
– Technology, environment, demographics,
globalization
 Institutions
– Culture, ethnicity, religion, attitudes and beliefs
– Civil service, judiciary, electoral democracy,
essential services,
 Agents
– Social movements, elites, leaders, private sector,
media
 Events
– Wars, disasters, confrontations

7. Dynamics and Pathways to
reconstruct (or suggest scenarios)
Cumulative and
Chaotic Sequential
Events, tipping
points and Path Dependence
lightbulb
moments
Demonstration Accumulation of
Effects forces

8. The conflict-cooperation cycle
Social
Conflict
Events and Reforms run out
Moments of steam or new
problems arise
Reforms y
Cooperation

9. THINKING LIKE A CHANGE
AGENT

10. Power Analysis for Advocacy:
Phase One
 Define Change Goal
 What laws, policies, practices,
relationships need to change?
 What are obstacles to change? (e.g.
attitudes and beliefs, political groups,
financial/commercial interests, lack of a
feasible practical proposal)
 What are the political opportunities for
change (e.g. legislative timetables,
elections, international negotiations &
summits)

11. Power Analysis: Phase Two
 Who are decision-makers and institutions that
determine the change?
 At what level are decisions made (international,
national, state, politician or official)
 Who has formal and informal power on a reform
process?
 Among these groups and individuals, which are
– most easily influenced by OXFAM/partners?
– The lost causes?
– the ‘shifters' - the undecided or persuadable?
 Who influences the people in this key group,
who are often the principle target for our
campaign?

12. Power Analysis is permanent
Power
Analysis
Change Implement and
Hypothesis Evaluate
Select Change
Strategies

13. Some Possible Change Strategies
 Active Citizenship
– Rights education
– Supporting People in the Streets
– Grassroots Leadership Training
– Public campaigning eg via media
 Elites
– Direct engagement with politicians
– Research-driven engagement with
technocrats

14. Change strategies (continued)
 Windows of opportunity
– Election campaigns
– Responding to shocks
– Seizing opportunities eg court cases,
scandals

15. Tactics: Think about
 Alliances – how broad?
 Conflict v cooperation – how
confrontational?
 Problem/Solution/Villain
 How to build broad coalition around easy
wins
 Prescriptive or flexible?
Convening/brokering or responding to
opportunities v a specific objective