Part of a series of lectures by Duncan Green, Head of Research at Oxfam GB on key issues raised in his book From Poverty to Power.

1. How Change Happens
Lecture given by Duncan Green
Head of Research at Oxfam GB
Notre Dame University, September 2009
Part of a series of From Poverty to Power lectures.

2. “There is nothing change
permanent except
”
Heraclitus 6th Century BC

3. A famous example:
The abolition of slavery
Half a million African slaves
1780 work on the sugar
plantations of British
colonies
British Parliament bans the
1807 slave trade
1838 Slavery banned altogether:
800,000 slaves of the
British Empire win their
freedom

4. Dynamics of Change
Waves of slave rebellion in America and Caribbean
 Haiti becomes first independent black republic in 1804
Individuals and Coalitions
 The Anglican preacher Thomas
Clarkson, MP William
Wilberforce, Olaudah Equiano
(ex slave). The Quakers build the
abolitionist movement – the first
modern campaign
Britain at war with France, where Napoleon
reintroduces slavery and oppose Haiti’s
independence; opposing slavery becomes part of
war effort.

5. Some initial conclusions
 Many factors combine in any given change
 Path dependence – one change triggers
another
 Coalitions and alliances (especially
insider/outsider) can play crucial role
 External shocks (eg wars) often catalysts of
change

6. 4 components of change
 Context
– Technology, environment, demography,
globalization
 Institutions
– Culture, ethnicity, religion, attitudes and beliefs
– Civil Service, judiciary, electoral democracy,
essential services,
 Agents
– Social Movements, elites, political leaders, private
sector, media
 Events
– Conflicts, natural disasters, political and economic
crises

7. Dynamics and pathways
Chaotic Cumulative and
Sequential
Events, tipping
points and Path dependence
lightbulb
moments
Demonstration Accumulation of
effects forces

9. How Change Happens:
The Chiquitanos

10. How Change Happens:
The Chiquitanos
 3 July 2007: The Chiquitanos win rights to 1
million hectares of traditional lands in Eastern
Bolivia
 Until 1980 they lived in semi-feudal conditions
 How did it happen?

11. Components of change
 Context: Economic Crisis in the 1980s, leading
to structural adjustment, rising inequality and
crisis of legitimacy for traditional parties and
trade unions
 Institutions: rise of indigenous identity;
decentralization and agrarian reform
 Agents: New generation of indigenous leaders;
ex-miners arrive in Sta Cruz
 Events: ‘lightbulb moments’ - breaking into the
mayor’s office; marching to La Paz; the
election of Evo Morales

12. Dynamics of change
 ‘Historical memory’ of colonialism and repression,
but also of the 1952 revolucion
 Slow legal processes and move into formal
politics, but punctuated by political moments and
events
 Importance of alliances with altiplano Indians
 ‘Water wars’ and the fall of presidents lead to
election of Evo Morales 2005

13. Is change predictable?
 Non-linear change = non-elephant animals at the
zoo (weather, stock markets, social unrest)
 Planners v searchers
 Evolutionary change: differentiate/select/amplify a
good model, but works better for markets than
society
 Possible non-linear models of change for ’change
agents’:
– Solidarity
– Venture Capitalism
– US Marines (Afghan Solidarity Programme)

14. Final thoughts:
Some problems with current thinking on change
 We fail to grasp or respond to the impact of shocks
as generators of sudden change
 Focus on ‘above the waterline’ issues such as
policies and laws, at the expense of attitudes, beliefs
and relationships
 Reject (rather than understand/engage with)
technology

15. Further Reading from the Blog
 The Global Crisis and technology long waves,
www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=293
 Building women’s leadership: what works?,
www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=262
 What can Economics learn from Evolutionary
theory? www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=115
 Shocks and Change,
www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=8

16. Further Reading
 From Poverty to Power, Annex on How Change
Happens, http://www.oxfam.org/fp2p
 How Change Happens, Roman Kznaric
 DFID’s Drivers of Change website,
www.gsdrc.org/go/topic-guides/drivers-of-change