1. ONEIA Presentation
Supply + Demand in Ontario Solar
Boreal Solar
March, 2011
Strictly Private and Confidential.
For Discussion purposes only
2. Solar in Ontario = A Glass of Water
The glass is half full The glass is half empty
Could be $1B in solar panels sold Demand has been moderating
this year, >200% growth for 2011
Evolution of the Grid to Connection issues won’t get
accommodate distributed power fixed overnight and contract
generation is taking place approvals have been slower than
expected – what’s next?
Stakeholders including
government, Hydro-1, LDCs, Public awareness of the Ontario
developers showing commitment FIT program is low
to make Ontario solar a multi-
Political uncertainty could
year success
translate into unwanted changes
Contracts are being awarded – for solar in Ontario - rate cuts
257MW for 40 projects in rnd 2 are expected in the fall
Lots of potential! Lots of risk! Where are the
(Canadian) banks?
Challenges provide an opportunity
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3. The demand is there – we think…
ClearSky Advisors expects 455MW in 2011
455MW in 2011
according to ClearSky 65 Stakeholders
Down ~200MW from earlier forecast
More than 200MW of RESOP
Still a moving target – depends on phase 3 FIT
announcement - some developers will build more
aggresively
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4. Suppliers are here in volume
To date: New manufacturers like Heliene, Solgate, Lumin
Ontario Content PV
Modules
Solar have been supplying MWs of panels for primarily
microFIT. Sharp and UE Solar providing panels with Ontario-
refined silicon from 6N
Today: New supply lines from Silfab, Canadian Solar, ATS
Photowatt, Celestica, Flextronics, Centennial, Eclipsall, Siliken,
Suntech (6N) coming on line in H1/2011.
Tomorrow: Rumoured new supply? Day 4, LDK, Motech,
Sanyo
Ontario Content String Inverters – KACO, SMA, Fronius, Power One, SET,
Inverters PVPowered, Satcon, Sungrow, Santerno
Micro Inverters – Enphase, Enecsys, Apparent, Solarian,
SPARQ
Micro Inverters have been a little bit behind the curve –
a complex supply chain?
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5. PV Module supply/demand
An undersupply through H1/11, an excess supply of PV
Modules in H2/11? Combined with lower cell prices
(expected), 5could see a dip!
6. Bankability is a concern!
Reliability: Is the product reliable and generating power in 20
What do you mean…? years?
Corporate reliability: Is the product financeable? Where? Is the
company behind the product diversified?
Brand equity: Is the company a “brand name”? Important when
looking to sell a project...
Very few diversified Sharp
solar brands… Samsung (?)
Sanyo
Sharp has been very successful in extracting a premium in the
Opportunities market even with a “new” product using 6N silicon
New manufacturers need to keep bankability in mind to differentiate
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