Sanath Ranawana, Asian Development Bank Presentation: Greater Mekong Sub-region Natural Capital Partnership: key conclusions from recent Ministerial-level meeting

1. Sanath Ranawana, Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist
Asian Development Bank
Building Resilient Cities:
The role of the Greater Mekong Subregion
Core Environment Program

2. Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)
Six countries:
Cambodia
People's Republic of China (PRC)
• Yunnan Province
• Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous
Region
Lao People's Democratic Republic
(Lao PDR)
Myanmar
Thailand
Viet Nam
Connected by:
• The Mekong River
• Nine economic corridors
• Social and cultural links

3. Rich in natural capital …
• Land: 2.6 million sq. km
• Mekong: 4,350 km - 12th longest
river in the world
• Extensive coastland and marine
resource
• Rich wetlands and other inland
water bodies
• Extensive forest area - 118
million ha.
Natural capital’s contribution to the total
and per capital wealth of selected GMS
countries, 2005
Source: World Bank Wealth of Nations Database

4. Diverse Society …
• 332 million people
• More than 70 ethnic groups
• Around 67% of total population
live in rural areas
• Largely agrarian and dependent
on natural resources for
subsistence and livelihoods
• High poverty in rural areas

5. … rapidly urbanizing
• Urbanization levels are
currently low
• Between 2010 to 2050,
GMS urban areas will
grow 7 times faster than
total population
• This trend will result in
92.6 million more people
living in urban areas by
2050
• Rural areas will lose more
than 62 million people.

6. And
increasingly
connected
through
infrastructure
…
Infrastructure
Development
in GMS (1992)
• Roads
• Telecommunications
• Power
Transmission Line
Infrastructure
Development
in GMS (2010)
Infrastructure
Development
in GMS
(2015-2020)

7. Which is fragmenting ecosystems
Biodiversity landscapes
intersected with
economic corridors

8. Causing loss of biodiversity and
ecosystem services …
Source: WWF

9. Affecting human well being …

10. Highly vulnerable to natural
disasters and climate change
• E.g. Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City
(HCMC) – highly vulnerable to sea
level rise.
• 2011 Bangkok flood - costs $46
billion; ranked among top ten costliest
natural disasters since 1980s (the
Economist)
• Viet Nam, 1m rise in sea level would
inundate a quarter of HCMC, home to
more than 6 million people, and
submerge 11,000 km of roads
The cost of climate change could
reach nearly 7% of GDP per year
by 2100 in Thailand and Viet Nam,
significantly higher than the global
average

11. GMS Economic Cooperation
Program and Regional Investment
Framework
RIF endorsed by the 19th GMS
Ministerial Conference in Dec 2013
$30.0 billion RIF
Implementation
Plan (2014-2018)
Recognized by the 5th GMS
Summit in Dec 2014

12. Priority Investment Projects by
Sector under the RIF
Implementation Plan (2014 – 2018)
Transport: 90.2%
Energy: 4.0%
Agriculture: 1.5%
Environment: 0.3%
HRD: 0.7%
Urban: 1.1%
Tourism: 1.5%
TTF: 0.1%
ICT: 0.0%
Multisector & CBEZs: 0.6%
transport
energy

13. Priority Technical Assistance
Projects by Sector under the
RIF Implementation Plan
Transport: 12.0%
Energy: 10.8%
Agriculture: 8.3%
Environment: 14.3%
HRD: 6.6%
Urban: 5.8%
Tourism: 4.0%
TTF: 15.1%
ICT: 16.6%
Multisector & CBEZs: 6.6%
transport
energy
agri
environment
HRD
urban
tourism
TTF
ICT
multisector&
CBEZs

14. Phase I: 2006-2011
Phase II: 2012-2016
Regional: environment
ministries of Cambodia, PRC,
Lao PDR, Myanmar,
Thailand, and Viet Nam
Secretariat:
GMS
Environment
Operations
Center
Multi-donor: $28.4 million
from the Governments of
Finland and Sweden, Nordic
Development Fund, ADB,
GEF, and PRCF
Vision: poverty free
and ecologically rich
GMS
The Core Environment
Program in the GMS
Core Environment
Program (CEP)

15. Output Map of the SMCA, at 1km
resolution.
Low values ( 0) indicate high
accumulated risk, while high values (
1) indicate low accumulated risk.
Application of a decision-making tool: Spatial
Multi-Criteria Analysis
Criteria Tree

16. Example 1:
Assessment of
Corridor Towns
Development
Project 1

17. Example 2:
Corridor Towns
Development
Project II

18. Other Assessments under
CEP
• Economic assessment of ecosystem
services
• Multisector planning to assess trade-offs
• Climate vulnerability assessments to support
climate resilient communities and
landscapes

19. Environment Operations Center
• Repository of knowledge and information
• Providing baseline social, economic and
environmental data, and technical know how
GIS Data and GMS
Atlas
http://www.gms-eoc.org
GMS Development
Map Tool
Climate Change
Projection
GMS Statistics

20. Bid for
enhanced
partnership to
promote
investment in
natural capital in
the GMS−from
the recently
concluded
EMM4

21. Next steps
1st Half of
2015
• Identify Action Plan for mainstreaming natural capital in RIF and
beyond
• Align with GMS Core Environment Program Phase 2
2nd Half of
2015
• Work with sector ministries to support the design and
implementation of RIF projects
• GMS Core Environment Program as facilitator
1st half of
2016
• Take stock of progress
• GMS Core Environment Program to organize a knowledge sharing
event

22. THANK YOU!