1. 1 Climate Change Expert Group
Breakout group session outline
Part 1 (11:45 – 13:15)
 What does “durable” mean?
 Structure of the 2015 agreement
 Metrics used to express contributions
Part 2 (14:30 – 16:00)
 Process for revisiting and adjusting contributions
Part 3 (16:30 – 18:00)
 Continued discussion and next steps

2. Climate Change Expert Group www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg.htm
Gregory Briner, OECD
gregory.briner@oecd.org
Based on the draft paper “Built to Last: Designing a Flexible and Durable 2015 Climate
Change Agreement” by Gregory Briner, Takayoshi Kato and Takashi Hattori
Built to Last:
Introduction and options for flexibility in
the structure and metrics of the 2015
agreement
CCXG Global Forum
18 March 2014

3. 3 Climate Change Expert Group
Built to Last: presentation outline
 What does “durable” mean?
 Structure of the 2015
agreement
 Metrics used to express
contributions
 Questions for discussion
Source: John Perivolaris

4. 4 Climate Change Expert Group
What does “durable” mean?
“A durable 2015 agreement would be an
agreement that is ambitious and fair when it
comes into effect from 2020, and continues to be
ambitious and fair in response to structural
changes and external shocks after 2020…”

5. 5 Climate Change Expert Group
Possible changes and
external shocks
Scientific
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Natural disasters
Source: NASA Goddard
Economic
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Political
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Demographic
Source: Greg Briner
Technological
Source: Solar Impulse

6. 6 Climate Change Expert Group
Possible structure of the agreement
Information
document
Information
document
Information
document
COP decision
COP decision
COP decisionCOP decision
COP decision
Core political
and/or
legal agreement
(with annexes)

7. 7 Climate Change Expert Group
Metrics used to express contributions
 The metrics used to express mitigation contributions
could affect how flexible the 2015 agreement is
 Examples of flexible metrics: emissions intensity,
GHG emissions relative to BAU, non-GHG metrics
 These metrics can increase responsiveness to
external shocks, but also increase uncertainty
regarding future environmental outcomes
 Multiple contributions by a country expressed using
different metrics could be more durable than a
single contribution expressed in GHG terms

8. 8 Climate Change Expert Group
Discussion questions
 What are possible interpretations of the term
“durable” in the context of the 2015 climate
change agreement?
 How could the 2015 agreement be structured in a
durable manner?
 Could the use of metrics such as emissions
intensity, GHG emissions relative to BAU and non-
GHG metrics by some Parties help to make the
agreement more durable?