2nd OECD-AMRO Asian Regional Roundtable

1. 1
“Thailand: Escaping the Middle-income Trap”
Porametee Vimolsiri
Deputy Secretary-General
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)
The 2nd OECD-AMRO Joint Asian Regional Roundtable
20 July 2013, Singapore

2. 2
0
20
40
60
Thailand
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Economic Performance
Business Efficiency
Government
EfficiencyInfrastructure
Source: IMD
IMD Ranking 2012
Thailand’s Global Economic Ranking
51st Largest Area
13th Largest Tourist Receipts
19th Largest Agricultural Output
20th Largest Manufacturing Output
1st Largest Hard Disk Drive Producer
1st ASEAN Largest Automobile Producer
1st ASEAN Largest Electronic Appliance Producer
23rd Largest Economies by Purchasing Power
34th Largest Economies
37th Largest Services Output
Thailand Economic Strength
GDP Growth (%) Avg. 1961-2010
World 3.49
China 8.24
Indonesia 5.40
Korea 7.21
Malaysia 6.45
Philippines 4.09
Singapore 7.89
Thailand 6.38
Source: WTO
Thailand export share continued to increase.
In 2008, Thailand is the 24th export rank in world.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
%Share
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Viet Nam

3. 3
Source: NESDB
Thailand’s GDP growth
-7
-5.2
-2.8
5.9
12
9.2
6.6
3.8
3.2 2.7
3.7
-8.9
0.4
4.4
3.1
18.9
-2.5
1.9
3
4.1
2.2
-0.8
1.1
1.9
0.5
-1
2.4
-10.5
10.3
3.1
1.5
3.6
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 2009 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4
%yoy %qoq(SA)
2010 Q2
Political unrest
2011 Q2
Impact of Tsunami
in Japan
2010 Q3
Slowdown of Trading
partners’ economies
2010 Q4
Flood in Thailand
2012 Q2- Q3
Trading partners’ Economic Slowdown
2011 Q3/Q4
Severe flood
= -2.3 = 7.8 = 0.1 = 6.4
2012 Q4
Global Economic
Recovery

4. 4
Agriculture
9%
Mining
2%
Manufacturin
g
39%
Electricity, Gas
and Water
Supply
4%
Construction
2%
Trade
13%
Hotels and
Restaurants
4%
Transportation
10%
Other
17%
Diversification is among the Strength of Thai Economy
US
10%
EU
9%
Japan
10%
ASEAN5
16%
CLMV
8%
China
12%
Other
35%
Source: NESDB
GDP Structure
Export Share by Destinations
Source: NESDB
Source: MOC
Source: NESDB
Real GDP Growth: Expenditure Side
Growth (% YOY)
2011 2012
Year Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Consumption 1.3 6.7 2.4 5.6 6.7 12.2
- Private 1.3 8.8 2.9 5.3 6.0 12.2
- Public 1.1 1.1 -0.2 7.4 9.8 12.1
Investment 3.3 13.3 5.2 10.2 15.5 23.5
- Private -8.7 8.9 -9.6 4.0 13.2 31.1
- Public 7.2 14.6 9.2 11.8 16.2 21.7
Export 9.5 2.9 -3.2 1.1 -2.8 19.0
Import 13.7 6.2 4.3 8.6 -1.8 14.7
GDP 0.1 6.4 0.4 4.4 3.1 18.9
Real GDP Growth: Production Side
Growth (% YOY)
2011 2012
Year Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Agricultural 4.1 3.1 3.4 1.8 8.3 0.8
Manufacturing -4.3 7.0 -4.3 2.8 -1.1 37.4
Construction -5.1 7.8 0.8 6.9 9.8 14.1
Trade 1.8 5.2 4.1 5.4 4.0 7.6
Hotel & Restaurant 7.4 11.5 5.6 8.6 7.0 25.4
Financial 13.3 6.6 6.4 5.5 4.8 9.9
GDP 0.1 6.4 0.4 4.4 3.1 18.9

5. 5
Economic Stability
Internal Stability External stability
181.6
3.1
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
0
40
80
120
160
200
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
TimesInternational Reserves (bn USD)
International Reserves/ST External Debts
3.1
-4.0
1.0
6.0
11.0
16.0
-4,000
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009 = 21,895.8 2010 = 10,023.6 2011 = 5,888.6 2012 = 2,728.0
CA Balance (Mil USD) CA/GDP (%)
3.2
1.8
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Headline CPI Core CPI
Headline CPI
2009=-0.9
190.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
200
400
600
800
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Unemployed persons (Th persons) Unemployment Rate
Source: Bank of Thailand, Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office
Headline CPI
2008=5.5
Core CPI
2008=2.3
Headline CPI
2010=3.3
Headline CPI
2011=3.8
Headline CPI
2012=3.0
Core CPI
2009=0.3
Core CPI
2011=2.4
Core CPI
2010=0.9
Core CPI
2012=2.1

6. 6
Stage of Development & Current Thailand Position
Low Income High IncomeMiddle Income
Stage I
Monoculture, subsi
stence
agriculture, aid
dependency
Stage II
Simple
manufacturing
under foreign
guidance
Stage III
Have supporting
industries, but
remains Under
foreign guidance
Stage IV
Management
technology
mastered, can
produce high
quality goods
Stage V
Full capability in
innovation and
product design as
global leader
Glass ceiling for ASEAN countries
(Middle income trap)
Vietnam
Malaysia
Thailand
Korea
Taiwan
Japan, US,
Germany
France Italy
Arrival of
manufacturing FDI
Agglomeration
Technology
absorption
Creativity
Pre-
industrialization
Initial FDI
absorption
Internalizing
parts & components
Internalizing
skills & technology
Internalizing
innovation
Source: NESDB

7. 7
Medium-term Development Challenge
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
USD
Lower Middle Income Country
High Income Country
Upper Middle Income Country Projection
Current (per cap)
GNI = $4420
GDP = $5382
Source: NESDB, World Bank
Thai GNI per Capita
Target : 1. Maintain GDP growth at 5-6 %
2. Achieve GNI per capita of 12,000 USD
(Atlas method) by 2030
TFP and TFP Growth
Annual Change in TFP, 1985-2007
TFP2007,US=100

8. 8
Medium-term growth strategy will emphasize investment to improve
productivity/quality, competitiveness, and long-term potential growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2 4 6 8 10 12
AverageInvestmentGrowth2000-2011
Average GDP Growth 2000 - 2011
China
India
Indonesia
Singapore
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Korea
Taiwan
Source: IMF
Justifications for investment stimulation
• Strengthen domestic demand to reduce the
impacts from global slowdown
• Increase long-run growth potential
• Reduce logistic costs
• Support economic restructuring
 Agricultural TFP
 Efficiency in manufacturing production
 High mobility service sector
 Regional connectivity
• With the rapid expansion of private
investment, the bottleneck is likely
• Countries with lower GDP per-capita normally
have higher rate of capital accumulation

9. Subscribe: Jul 5, 2004
Effective: Jan 1, 2005
Japan
Thailand
Under the Negotiation
Under the Negotiation
Leveraging Regional Integration
Subscribe: April 19, 2005
Effective: Jul 1, 2005
Subscribe: Oct 9, 2003
Effective: Sep 1, 2004
Subscribe: June, 2006
Effective: Nov 1, 2007
Subscribe: Nov 19, 2005
Effective: Dec 31, 2011
Korea
China
ASEAN AEC2015
Subscribe: Feb 27, 2009
Effective: Jan 1, 2010
Subscribe: Aug 13, 2009
Effective: Jan 1,2010
Subscribe: Apr 11, 2008
Effective: Jun 1, 2009
Subscribe: Nov 29, 2004
Effective: Jan 1, 2006
Subscribe: Feb 27, 2009
Effective: Mar 12, 2010
EU
India
Peru
Chile
New Zealand
Effective: Dec 29, 2002
Effective: Oct 1, 2003
Bahrain
Australia
Source: Ministry of Commerce

10. Human Capital /
Quality of Life /
Knowledge / Fairness
Infrastructure /
Productivity/ Research
& Development
1. Growth and
Competitiveness
Towards
greater
per capita
income
Towards
Inequality
Reduction
Towards
environmen
tal friendly
Towards
Balanced
and
improved
Public Sector
Management
Legal
Framework
2.Inclusive
Growth
3. Green
Growth
Thailand’s Country Strategy
4. Internal Process

11. 11
1. Growth & Competitiveness 2. Inclusive Growth
3. Green Growth
Restructuring Production and Service Sectors
Agriculture
Reducing
Social
Inequality
- Developing Quality
of Life/Improving
Healthcare
- Developing Welfare
System
Creating
Opportunities &
Income for SMEs &
Community
Economies
- Education
Reform
- Skill Development
for Labor
- Promoting Access
to Justice
- Creating Good
Governance
Building
Knowledge
on ASEAN
4. Internal Process
Green Growth
Natural
Resources
Management
Eco-
Industrial
Cities
Eco-
friendly
Fiscal
Policy
GHG
Emission
Reduction
Climate
Change Budget
Process
Reform
Developmentof
under-utilized Public
Sector Assets
Security
Improvement
Political
Reform
Legal
Reform
Public
Sector
Reform
Human
Capital
Developme
nt in Public
Sector
Tax
Reform
Industry Tourism/Service
Regional
Connectivity
Competitiveness
Development
Urban/Spatial
Development
Infrastructure Energy R&D
Country Strategy

12. 12
12
3.
Infrastructure
and Logistics
development
4. Human
resources
development
5.
Improvement
of laws, rules
and
regulation
6. Building
awareness, und
erstanding and
realization of
being ASEAN
7. Security
8. Increase urban
potentiality as to
link opportunity
from ASEAN
1. Increase
competitiveness
of
products, services
, trade and
investment
2.Improveme
nt of quality
of life and
social
protection
Vision
Thailand is strong
country member who
will corporately
support the
betterment of people
in ASEAN
STRATEGY TOWARDS ASEAN COMMUNITY IN 2015
• Connectivity
• Rules/Regulations of transport
of goods /passengers
• English skill
• Skilled labor/skilled businessman
• Standard of labor skill
• Education curriculum
• Corporate connection wt ASEAN
members
• Obligation
• Trade
facilitation
• Benefit
protection of
the nation
• Awareness to every
parties
• ASEAN knowledge
• Culture of ASEAN’s
country members
• International corporation
• Crime/disaster
• Border areas management
• Good governance
• Capital City
• Industrial town
• Border trade town
• Productivity
• Standard of
services product
• Market
• Labor Protection
• Social welfare
• Working environment

13. 13
Country Strategy
Human Capital
/ Quality of Life
/ Knowledge /
Fairness
Infrastructure /
Productivity/
Research &
Development
1. Growth and Competitiveness
Towards
High
Income
Country
Towards
Economic
Equity
Towards
Sustainabl
e
Economy
Towards
Good
Governanc
e in Public
Sector
Legal Framework
2.Inclusive Growth 3. Green Growth
Water Resource Management
~10,300 Mil. USD
Infrastructure Development
~70,000 Mil. USD
High-speed Train
Railway Improvement
Road Network
Major Investment Plans
Major Investment Plans

14. 14
High Speed Train
Metropolitan Rail System
Dual Track Rail system
Key Infrastructure Project Development
Network in 2029: The total length is
495 km., with 308 stations, covering
the area of 680 sq.km. with 5.13 mill.
population (EIRR = 19.67%)
Total length : 1,915 km
Total investment: 15,300 Mill.USD
No of route: 4 routes
- North (Bang Sue-Chiang Mai)
- North-East (Bang Sue-Nong Kai)
- East (Makkasan-Rayong)
- South (Bang Se-Huahin)
Total length : 768 km
Total investment: 2,590 Mill.USD
No of route: 5 routes
- Chachoensao-Kaeng Khoi
- Lop Buri-Nakhonsawan-Makabao-Thanon
Chira Junction
- Thanon Chira Junction-Khonkaen
- Nahkonpathom-Hauhin
- Prachuap Khiri Khan-Chumphon
Mode Budget
(bn USD)
Share of
Total Budget
Rail Transport 49.76 77%
Road Transport 12.94 20%
Water Transport 0.46 0.7%
Air Transport 0.89 1.4%
Border Facilities 0.41 0.6%
Total 64.46 100%

15. 15
Thank You
www.nesdb.go.th
NESDB’s Vision :
“Being the core planning agency responsible for strategy formulation
towards balanced and sustainable development, upholding national interests,
up-to-date with the latest changes and working with the highest efficiency”