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The crisis in figures  (OECD & other sources)
The OECD area goes into recession at the end of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
The fall in GDP gathers speed in early 2009 in most countries www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
…  partly driven by the decline in gross fixed investment www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Monetary policy rates are very close to zero in most major OECD countries at the end of 2008 Note: The dark line represents the main policy rate of the central banks. The light line plots the overnight rate. Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Japan, Datastream, ECB. Main Policy and Overnight rates www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Unconventional measures have led to significant expansion of central banks’ balance sheets Size of central banks’ balance sheets Source: Datastream www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Budget balances will deteriorate markedly in all OECD member countries except Iceland in 2009 & 2010 Budget balances  (as % of GDP) www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Unemployment is rising sharply   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Unemployment rises steeply in recessions and may not recover to previous levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Unemployment rises steeply in recessions and may not recover to previous levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
During recessions, Research & Development expenditures drop more severely than GDP  www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Industrial production continues to plunge in most OECD countries   Industrial Production 12-month rate of change www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Housing starts collapsed or slowed dramatically Index 2005=100, Seasonally adjusted  www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Leading Indicators signal continued slowdown for some economies… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
…  but a possible trough for others by mid-2009  www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
OECD Business Cycle Clock I US and Japan continue to slow down www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
OECD Business Cycle Clock II  Recession in France and Italy may start easing in mid-2009   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
US households starting to feel more optimistic about their standard of living…   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
…  and their well-being   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
US consumer spending stabilises in Spring 2009 after falling for a year  www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Business and consumer confidence rising but still a long way to go   Confidence Indicators Long term average = 100 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Inflation rates stable or lower thanks to falling energy prices Consumer prices, 12-month rate of change www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Unit labour costs still rising in fourth quarter of 2008 in all OECD countries except Korea www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
China’s stock market rebounds first   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
US real estate prices back to pre-2003 levels after peaking in 2006   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
UK real estates start to pick up and are still higher than historical levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Stock market volatility reverting to historical levels after Lehman Brothers collapse sparks unprecedented spike   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Spread on short-term interest rates soars to record levels then eases US TED Spread (LIBOR 3-month rate minus 3-month T-bill rate) (Source: Bloomberg)  15 Sept, 2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Securitisation, a driver of the crisis, on the retreat since first quarter of 2008… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
… partly due to lower mortgage securitisation  www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
The exponential growth in outstanding Credit Default Swaps suddenly stopped in mid-2008…   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
… and US commercial paper funding is contracting US commercial paper outstanding, billions USD (Source: Federal Reserve)  www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
The price of international shipments of raw materials rebounds after hitting an all-time low   Baltic Dry Index (Source: Bloomberg) 5 Dec 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Yen appreciates by 20% against the dollar in 4 months to 17 December 2008 then loses ground  www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Euro depreciates 20% against the dollar from July 2008 to end October 2008, then strengthens   www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
Collapse of merchandise exports in fourth quarter of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 36/38
Collapse of merchandise imports in fourth quarter of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
The fall in total merchandise trade eases off Total merchandise trade, US$ billion, seasonally adjusted www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38

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The financial crisis in numbers

  • 1. The crisis in figures (OECD & other sources)
  • 2. The OECD area goes into recession at the end of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 3. The fall in GDP gathers speed in early 2009 in most countries www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 4. … partly driven by the decline in gross fixed investment www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 5. Monetary policy rates are very close to zero in most major OECD countries at the end of 2008 Note: The dark line represents the main policy rate of the central banks. The light line plots the overnight rate. Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Japan, Datastream, ECB. Main Policy and Overnight rates www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 6. Unconventional measures have led to significant expansion of central banks’ balance sheets Size of central banks’ balance sheets Source: Datastream www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 7. Budget balances will deteriorate markedly in all OECD member countries except Iceland in 2009 & 2010 Budget balances (as % of GDP) www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 8. Unemployment is rising sharply www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 9. Unemployment rises steeply in recessions and may not recover to previous levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 10. Unemployment rises steeply in recessions and may not recover to previous levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 11. During recessions, Research & Development expenditures drop more severely than GDP www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 12. Industrial production continues to plunge in most OECD countries Industrial Production 12-month rate of change www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 13. Housing starts collapsed or slowed dramatically Index 2005=100, Seasonally adjusted www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 14. Leading Indicators signal continued slowdown for some economies… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 15. … but a possible trough for others by mid-2009 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 16. OECD Business Cycle Clock I US and Japan continue to slow down www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 17. OECD Business Cycle Clock II Recession in France and Italy may start easing in mid-2009 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 18. US households starting to feel more optimistic about their standard of living… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 19. … and their well-being www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 20. US consumer spending stabilises in Spring 2009 after falling for a year www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 21. Business and consumer confidence rising but still a long way to go Confidence Indicators Long term average = 100 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 22. Inflation rates stable or lower thanks to falling energy prices Consumer prices, 12-month rate of change www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 23. Unit labour costs still rising in fourth quarter of 2008 in all OECD countries except Korea www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 24. China’s stock market rebounds first www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 25. US real estate prices back to pre-2003 levels after peaking in 2006 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 26. UK real estates start to pick up and are still higher than historical levels www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 27. Stock market volatility reverting to historical levels after Lehman Brothers collapse sparks unprecedented spike www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 28. Spread on short-term interest rates soars to record levels then eases US TED Spread (LIBOR 3-month rate minus 3-month T-bill rate) (Source: Bloomberg) 15 Sept, 2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 29. Securitisation, a driver of the crisis, on the retreat since first quarter of 2008… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 30. … partly due to lower mortgage securitisation www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 31. The exponential growth in outstanding Credit Default Swaps suddenly stopped in mid-2008… www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 32. … and US commercial paper funding is contracting US commercial paper outstanding, billions USD (Source: Federal Reserve) www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 33. The price of international shipments of raw materials rebounds after hitting an all-time low Baltic Dry Index (Source: Bloomberg) 5 Dec 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 34. Yen appreciates by 20% against the dollar in 4 months to 17 December 2008 then loses ground www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 35. Euro depreciates 20% against the dollar from July 2008 to end October 2008, then strengthens www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 36. Collapse of merchandise exports in fourth quarter of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse 36/38
  • 37. Collapse of merchandise imports in fourth quarter of 2008 www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38
  • 38. The fall in total merchandise trade eases off Total merchandise trade, US$ billion, seasonally adjusted www.oecd.org/crisisresponse /38