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MTBFs: How to revive a
goldfish?
OECD CESEE SBO Meeting, Warsaw
21 and 22 May 2015
Overview
• Medium-term budgetary framework = dying goldfish?
• 5 steps to revive a goldfish
2
Main message
• The EU fiscal framework is probably still resilient to flagrant
departures from sound policy but there is a solid case for
doing more at the national level
• We need to build consensus around national operational
fiscal rules to underpin MTBFs
• Striking the right balance between simplicity, soundness,
transparency and flexibility
• F0rward-looking, aiming at a target consistent with fiscal
sustainability
• Overseen by national independent fiscal institutions
3
MTBF = Goldfish?
• Predictability
• Commitment
• Transparency
• Efficiency
4
MTBF = Dying goldfish?
1. Attempts to kill many birds with one stone by
the COM
desired fiscal trajectory blurred by a mist of multiple
rules, exemptions and interpretations
expenditure ceilings no longer among CSR
2. Increased uncertainty following crisis
increased aversion towards automaticity in policy
formulation
more myopia and improvisation in budgeting
5
Planned Slovak fiscal framework
6
Actual Slovak fiscal framework
7
Slovakia: One-off measures (pct GDP)
8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Step 1:
Is there a chance to revive the fish?
9
Step 1:
Is there a chance to revive the fish?
1. We have a solid legal backing
• “Six-Pack” – numerical fiscal rules & MTBFs
• “Fiscal Compact”
• Pre-existing national legislation
2. We have a sound argument
• A lot more work on and experience with
fiscal rules 10
Evidence
Nerlich and Reuter (2013): "We find strong support that numerical
fiscal rules help to improve the primary balance, and that the
budgetary impact can be further strengthened when supported by
independent fiscal councils and an effective medium-term
budgeting framework."
11
Step 2:
Place the fish into cool water
12
Step 2:
Place the fish into cool water
• Try to use maximum space in existing
framework to promote a proper MTBF
• Publish no-policy-change scenarios
• Call for three-year budgets to be filled with substance
• Use Fiscal Compact and related policy statements to
define a trajectory
• Use other national rules (if available) to promote
convergence to a target
13
Step 3:
Remove dirt from the goldfish
14
Step 3:
Remove dirt from the goldfish
15
1. Fix cyclical adjustment methodology
(disaggregated approach)
2. Define one-off and temporary measures
3. Confront short-termism: introduce long-term
arguments into short-term analysis
important elements of a good rule-based
MTBF
Step 4:
Open gill covers
16
Step 4:
Open gill covers
17
• Propose a national operational rule
• Build on familiar, tested concepts
• Based on some structural indicator linked to long-term
sustainability analysis
• Expressed as a series of nominal expenditure ceilings
• Allow for automatic stabilizers and strictly defined
exemptions
• Evaluate past and update ceilings to keep on track to
meet the target
Step 5:
Place fish where there is water
circulation
18
Step 5:
Place fish where there is water
circulation
19
• Test the proposal in expert fora
• Build consensus among specialist politicians
Summary
• The idea of a MTBF is having a rough time but there are
very good arguments to keep it alive
• There is a lot we can do without changing the framework
• National operational rules are a key missing element and we
should aim to fill this gap
20
Thank you for your attention!

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MTBFs: How to revive a goldfish? - Michal Horvath, Slovak Republic

  • 1. MTBFs: How to revive a goldfish? OECD CESEE SBO Meeting, Warsaw 21 and 22 May 2015
  • 2. Overview • Medium-term budgetary framework = dying goldfish? • 5 steps to revive a goldfish 2
  • 3. Main message • The EU fiscal framework is probably still resilient to flagrant departures from sound policy but there is a solid case for doing more at the national level • We need to build consensus around national operational fiscal rules to underpin MTBFs • Striking the right balance between simplicity, soundness, transparency and flexibility • F0rward-looking, aiming at a target consistent with fiscal sustainability • Overseen by national independent fiscal institutions 3
  • 4. MTBF = Goldfish? • Predictability • Commitment • Transparency • Efficiency 4
  • 5. MTBF = Dying goldfish? 1. Attempts to kill many birds with one stone by the COM desired fiscal trajectory blurred by a mist of multiple rules, exemptions and interpretations expenditure ceilings no longer among CSR 2. Increased uncertainty following crisis increased aversion towards automaticity in policy formulation more myopia and improvisation in budgeting 5
  • 6. Planned Slovak fiscal framework 6
  • 7. Actual Slovak fiscal framework 7
  • 8. Slovakia: One-off measures (pct GDP) 8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
  • 9. Step 1: Is there a chance to revive the fish? 9
  • 10. Step 1: Is there a chance to revive the fish? 1. We have a solid legal backing • “Six-Pack” – numerical fiscal rules & MTBFs • “Fiscal Compact” • Pre-existing national legislation 2. We have a sound argument • A lot more work on and experience with fiscal rules 10
  • 11. Evidence Nerlich and Reuter (2013): "We find strong support that numerical fiscal rules help to improve the primary balance, and that the budgetary impact can be further strengthened when supported by independent fiscal councils and an effective medium-term budgeting framework." 11
  • 12. Step 2: Place the fish into cool water 12
  • 13. Step 2: Place the fish into cool water • Try to use maximum space in existing framework to promote a proper MTBF • Publish no-policy-change scenarios • Call for three-year budgets to be filled with substance • Use Fiscal Compact and related policy statements to define a trajectory • Use other national rules (if available) to promote convergence to a target 13
  • 14. Step 3: Remove dirt from the goldfish 14
  • 15. Step 3: Remove dirt from the goldfish 15 1. Fix cyclical adjustment methodology (disaggregated approach) 2. Define one-off and temporary measures 3. Confront short-termism: introduce long-term arguments into short-term analysis important elements of a good rule-based MTBF
  • 16. Step 4: Open gill covers 16
  • 17. Step 4: Open gill covers 17 • Propose a national operational rule • Build on familiar, tested concepts • Based on some structural indicator linked to long-term sustainability analysis • Expressed as a series of nominal expenditure ceilings • Allow for automatic stabilizers and strictly defined exemptions • Evaluate past and update ceilings to keep on track to meet the target
  • 18. Step 5: Place fish where there is water circulation 18
  • 19. Step 5: Place fish where there is water circulation 19 • Test the proposal in expert fora • Build consensus among specialist politicians
  • 20. Summary • The idea of a MTBF is having a rough time but there are very good arguments to keep it alive • There is a lot we can do without changing the framework • National operational rules are a key missing element and we should aim to fill this gap 20
  • 21. Thank you for your attention!