Anita Charlesworth: The financial outlook for the NHS

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In this slideshow, Anita Charlesworth , Chief Economist, Nuffield Trust, outlines financial outlook for the NHS over the next decade, focusing on UK public health spending between 1950 - 2010 and productivity growth in health care. Anita Charlesworth presented at How can hospitals do more with less? in October 2012.

Gesundheit & Medizin

The financial outlook for the NHS

Anita Charlesworth
Chief Economist
The Nuffield Trust

18 October 2012 © Nuffield Trust

10.0%
12.0%
14.0%

0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%

-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
1950-51
1952-53
1954-55
1956-57
1958-59
1960-61
1962-63
1964-65
1966-67
1968-69
1970-71
1972-73
1974-75
1976-77
1978-79
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
Trend in UK health Spending 1950 - 2010

2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
Growth rate
Linear (Growth rate)

© Nuffield Trust

0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1949-50
1951-52
1953-54
1955-56
1957-58
1959-60
1961-62
1963-64
1965-66

Source: Nuffield Trust (IFS and HMT data)
1967-68
1969-70
1971-72
1973-74
1975-76
1977-78
1979-80
1981-82
1983-84

% of GDP
1985-86
1987-88
1989-90
1991-92
1993-94
1995-96
UK Public Health Spending as a share of GDP

1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
© Nuffield Trust

Three NHS funding scenarios (real terms)

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending
given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare
cuts given NHS funding levels, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

The Crude Productivity performance

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-0.50

-1.00

-1.50

-2.00

-2.50
Health

Source: ONS

t: 020 7631 8450
e: info@nuffieldtrust.org.uk © Nuffield Trust

Its all about productivity

© Nuffield Trust

Without sustained productivity growth in healthcare the UK
has a structural inbalance

© Nuffield Trust

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk

Sign-up for our newsletter
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter

Follow us on Twitter:
Twitter.com/NuffieldTrust

18 October 2012 © Nuffield Trust

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Anita Charlesworth: The financial outlook for the NHS

1. The financial outlook for the NHS Anita Charlesworth Chief Economist The Nuffield Trust 18 October 2012 © Nuffield Trust

2. 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 1950-51 1952-53 1954-55 1956-57 1958-59 1960-61 1962-63 1964-65 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 1980-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 Trend in UK health Spending 1950 - 2010 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 Growth rate Linear (Growth rate) © Nuffield Trust

3. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 1949-50 1951-52 1953-54 1955-56 1957-58 1959-60 1961-62 1963-64 1965-66 Source: Nuffield Trust (IFS and HMT data) 1967-68 1969-70 1971-72 1973-74 1975-76 1977-78 1979-80 1981-82 1983-84 % of GDP 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 UK Public Health Spending as a share of GDP 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 © Nuffield Trust

5. Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22 © Nuffield Trust

6. Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given NHS funding levels, 2015/16 to 2021/22 © Nuffield Trust

7. The Crude Productivity performance 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 Health Source: ONS t: 020 7631 8450 e: info@nuffieldtrust.org.uk © Nuffield Trust

10. www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk Sign-up for our newsletter www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter Follow us on Twitter: Twitter.com/NuffieldTrust 18 October 2012 © Nuffield Trust

Anita Charlesworth: The financial outlook for the NHS

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