US and Oklahoma Economic Outlook

1. Norman Economic
Development Coalition
US and Oklahoma Economic
Outlook Presentation
April 2015

2. NEDC Presentation
April 2015 Agenda
• Status of the US Economy
– Storyline Retrospective
– Major Indicators
• Monetary and Fiscal Policy
– Fed’s Balance Sheet
– Money Supply Growth
• Special Topics
– Status of the Oklahoma Economy
• Employment Trends—State and Regional
• Gross State Tax Collections
– Price of Crude Oil & Employment Implications
– New Generation Economic Development

3. Storyline and Continuing
Saga
19th Year and Counting

4. First Chapters of Story
Irrational Exuberance
Stock Market Bubble/Bust
Floods of Liquidity Promoting
Speculation and Low Rates
Rise of the Housing Bubble
Recession of 2001

5. Next Chapters of Story
Subprime Mortgage Crisis
Financial Contagion
Recession of 2007-2008
Fiscal & Monetary Stimulus
Housing Market Collapse
Muted Economic Recovery

6. The Continuing 19-Year Saga
Credit Market Deleveraging
Sovereign Debt Crises
Currency Devaluations
Global Political Discord
Quantitative Easing Forever
Demographic and Other Cliffs
Continuing Slow Growth

7. Status of the National
Economic Recovery
“Nobody can predict how long governments
can get away with fake growth, fake money,
fake financial stability, fake jobs, fake inflation
numbers and fake income growth.”
Paul Singer, Eliott Management, $8.6B AUM

8. Real Annualized GDP Growth
Recent Estimates place Q1 2013 at a 1.6% gain

9. Industrial Production

10. U.S. Retail Sales

11. Change in Payroll Jobs per Month

12. Year-over-Year Change in U.S.
Non-Ag Employment

13. Unemployment Rate

14. Part-Time Employment for Economic
Reasons

15. Housing Starts

16. Residential Investment as Percent of GDP
Recent Estimates place Q1 2013 at a 1.6% gain

17. Institute for Supply Management PMI

18. Case-Shiller Housing Price Indices
Recent Estimates place Q1 2013 at a 1.6% gain

19. U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

20. Chicago Fed National Activity Index

21. Monetary and Fiscal
Policy
Federal largesse gone wild?

22. Fed’s Magical Balance Sheet

23. U.S. Treasury securities 2,461.6 Reserve balances with F.R. Banks 2,479.3
Federal agency debt securities 38.7 Currency in circulation 1,317.4
Mortgage-backed securities 1,729.8 Reverse repurchase agreements 251.5
Credit loans 208.1 Treasury cash holdings 0.2
Other loans 0.1 Other deposits with F.R. Banks 418.1
Other Federal Reserve assets 80.2 Other liabilities and capital 63.1
Gold stock 11.0
Total 4,529.6 Total 4,529.6
Fed's Balance Sheet November 26, 2014 ($billions)
Fed’s Magical Balance Sheet

24. Federal Reserve’s Asset Holdings

25. US Money Supply Growth Rates

26. Stock Market and Member Bank Reserves

27. Bank Reserve Balances Deposited at the Fed

28. U.S. Government Budget Balances

29. US Inflation by Various Measures

30. Status of the Oklahoma
Economy

31. OKC, Tulsa, BOS Employment
Trends

32. US and Oklahoma Employment Growth

33. Comparative State Unemployment Rates

34. Oklahoma Gross Tax
Collections

35. Oklahoma Gross Tax
Collection Cumulative Shares

36. Price of Oil
Houston, we have a problem!

37. WTI Historic

38. WTI: What Happened in the 1980’s

39. Historic U.S. Oil Production
Gains since 2005
US +4.052 MBPD, 79% gain
TX +2.385, or 222% gain
ND +1.087, or 1055% gain
OK +0.189, 110% gain

40. US Historic Rig Count

41. Oil v. Natural Gas Rig Count

42. Oil Prices and Rig Counts

43. OK Direct Mining Sector Employment

44. OK Regional Direct Mining Sector
Employment

46. New Generation Economic
Development
• Evolution with Focus on
– Enhancing Existing Assets and Capabilities
– Innovation and Entrepreneurship
– Talent Creation
– Business Formation
– Quality of Life Placemaking
– Business Recruitment and Retention
– Institutional Coordination and Action

47. Institutional Coordination and
Action
• Expansive Range of Players
– State and local government
– City, Chambers of Commerce and regional
economic development leadership and staff
– Universities
– Business leaders and business groups
– Entrepreneurs
– Nonprofit executives

48. The University’s Roles
• Endowment of skills and abilities for the future
workforce and fostering of new talent
• Development of leaders in numerous domains
• Expansion of business insights
• Provision of policy guidance: analysis, formation
and implementation
• Invention, innovation and product development
• Coordination with economic development entities
• Advancement of quality of life and placemaking

49. University and Price College
Initiatives
• Top-Down Commitment of University Leadership
• New Entrepreneurship Division
• Center for Creation of Economic Wealth
• Office of Technology Development
• Center for Economic and Management Research
• Director of Public/Private Partnerships
• Senior Associate Dean for Economic Development/Impact
• University Research Campus Collaboration/Expansion
• Innovation Hub—Compelling Economic Development
through Publicly Available Facilities and Programs

50. 50
• The Innovation Hub advances interdisciplinary collaboration through
physical spaces, cutting-edge tools and technology, programs, and
professionals.
• Pursuits:
• Self-initiated learning environment to foster creativity and innovation
• New business ventures
• Convenient and public access to tools, spaces, and mentors
• Intellectual collisions spanning multiple disciplines
• Experiential & interdisciplinary learning environments to prepare our
students for the world of tomorrow
• The Innovation Hub will include a digital fabrication lab for technological
experimentation, hardware development, and idea prototyping to create
a culture of collaboration and creation among OU students, faculty, staff,
and community.
Innovation Hub Purpose and Features

51. Visualization Zone
270’ projection on 3
walls for high-def data
visualization, big data
decision theatre,
comparative social
computing, etc.
Fab Lab Zone
Workshop for digital
fabrication with computer
controlled equipment (3D
printers, CNC laser cutters/
routers/ milling machine,
etc.)
Experiential
Programs and
Colleges Zone
CCEW/ joint programs
(Agile product design,
Software Business
Accelerator, Social
Entrepreneurship)
Economic
Development
Zone
Co-working space,
business incubator/
accelerator,
support services
Research
Support Zone
Library services:
informatics, data
management and
other research
support
Collaboration
Zone
Highly flexible
space with
moveable white
board walls and a
coffee shop/
kitchen
The Innovation Hub
51

52. The Innovation Hub

53. That’s all, folks
But, please take a few minutes to
explore some of the iHub
technologies in our mobile facility