Birnbach Communications Predictions for 2014

BCI Positioning
Dec. 14, 2011

Predictions for 2014

Why The Story Matters ● www.birnbachcom.com

1

Introduction
• For more than a dozen years, Birnbach
Communicates has compiled an annual
list of media trends for its clients, who
operate across a range of industries,
including technology, financial software
and services, unified communications,
storage, security, biotech, healthcare,
clean tech, senior services, consumer,
social networking, nonprofit and education
sectors.

2

Media & Social Media Trends
•

The media business has not stabilized. After a few years of cost
cutting and, in some cases, moving to an online-only business model,
approximately 1,000 newsroom jobs were cut in 2013. Meanwhile, in a
counter-intuitive move, Newsweek, which last year had shifted to onlineonly, has announced plans to restart publishing print editions. What this
all means: That publishers still have not found a sustainable business
model. While we expect 2014 to be a strong publishing year because of
campaign ads for the mid-term elections, we expect more layoffs and
changes through 2015.
– Implications: The need to boost online readership will likely to continue to
skew coverage to focus on celebrity, entertainment and sports (our version of
bread and circuses), which means there may be less room and fewer
resources allocated for necessary but less sexy news. (Think we're
overstating this? How do you explain the fact that "twerking" was a big story
this year or that Miley Cyrus was a finalist for Time's Person of the Year along
with eventual winner, Pope Francis?


3

• Journalists continue to use social media to announce
and report – and broadcast reporters often recap the
mood on Twitter. It’s not just “citizen reporters” who use
Twitter to report news; real reporters at traditional news
organizations not only link to their articles via Twitter – they
often break news on Twitter, followed-up by full reporting at
their usual format. We’ve even seen articles in newspapers
that are comprised of previously tweeted material. We’ve also
seen a lot of examples of broadcast news programs reporting
on the Twitterati reaction to an event.
– Implications: This is another reason to follow reporters on social
media – to see what they’re working on, and to jump on stories
(as appropriate). And it’s another reason to use a hashtag and
participate in commenting on a relevant event.


4

• Traditional media will be burned in 2014 by jumping on a social
media trending topic. We’ve seen it a couple of times in 2013 and
we expect to see more in 2014: Tweets of a compelling incident that
go viral only to turn out to be false, like the confrontation livetweeted on a much-delayed Thanksgiving flight or Kyle Ayers’ livetweets of a #rooftopbreakup that may or may not be fictional. Digital
hoaxes can be entertaining and feel real, and in the urge to “own”
the story before their competition gets it, traditional media is
reporting first, fact-checking later. Reporting fake tweets as news
hurts everyone’s credibility.
– Implications: the media needs to be more skeptical about reporting on
trending items; one problem is that initial reports posted online remain
online, clogging search engine results that may include articles that
actually report on the hoax as a hoax. In other words, non-updated
articles containing wrong information will make it more difficult to sort
out the truth.


5

• Native advertising will be big in 2014. Back in the
pre-online days, native ads were called advertorials.
These days native ads often appear under headlines
as "Featured Content" to make them look like articles.
The Huffington Post, Washington Post, Forbes, Vanity
Fair and others have been experimenting with native
advertising, with the latter two requiring substantial
traditional ad buys. However, because the content isn't
obviously an ad, we expect the FTC to question
current practices due to a lack of transparency.
– Implications: Too much native advertising in a publication
could dilute its hard-to-earn credibility while the revenue
from native advertising could decline because consumers
are likely to tire of native ads and stop clicking on them.


6

• Marketing via flash mobs will seem so 2009. Flash mob marriage
proposals or musical or dance performances were fun to watch
when they first started hitting YouTube. Some companies, like TMobile have been successful in raising awareness through flash
mob videos but we think that the novelty has worn off. (The same is
true for flash mob wedding proposals, too, by the way.)
– Implications: Companies need to find something new to say to get viewers'
attention with flash mob videos.


7

• Instagram and Pinterest will remain
important sources for
recommendations and inspiration.
– Facebook will continue to be an important
source for recommendations in 2014 but
people's timelines get cluttered by a lot of
irrelevant posts. Because Instagram and
Pinterest offer visual images with little or no
commentary, they tend to have more impact.

8

•

Instagram/Pinterest envy: People post updates on their lives that are often
stage-managed or curated to capture a life we'd like to live not the live we
actually live. For example, the kids in the photo are clean and smiling, and
the room is neat. What others don't see is how much effort it took to get
things that way (how many changes of shirts to find a clean one, what
bribes were offered to get a hint of a smile). That doesn't mean that the rest
of us don't feel bad about our own kids, homes, lives when we see what
seems to be perfection of our friends. Instagram envy seems to be worse
than Facebook envy since Facebook posts often include articles and links,
random thoughts, etc. while Instagram offers just the photo itself, images
that had affects added to them that make the images seems idealized. We
don't see that kind of envy with Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook or Pinterest -the latter mostly because people post things they themselves want and
don't have. But expect more coverage in 2014 of Instagram envy, as an
example of how social media actually alienates us, not bring us together.
– Implications: Marketers need to make sure they develop easy-to-capture-and-share
content, particularly with regard to video and still photography. Twitter has been
offering up mirrors that can be used at celebrity events to make it easier for stars to
Tweet a selfie at the Oscars and other red carpet events. Nonprofits, in particular,
should offer something similar at their events


9

Marketing Trends
• Thought leadership will continue to be important to B2B
companies. As opportunities in which to tell their stories in
traditional media decrease, B2Bs will continue to recognize that it's
not enough to be an expert in their field; they have to showcase their
expertise using blogs, bylined articles, social media, etc. (Last year
we predicted that B2Bs would finally embrace social media; thought
leadership is how you engage via social media.) B2Bs need to
make sure they develop a content strategy because one-off or
occasional thought pieces probably won't cut it in a social media
environment that expects regular/frequent updates. A word of
caution: companies must understand it takes time to understand
how to engage and build credibility via social media and that it takes
patience to commit the resources necessary to be successful. Also,
more content is not necessarily better; the content needs to be
relevant.
– Implications: There are a lot of ways for B2B companies to position
themselves as thought leaders, and that could shift how marketing
dollars are allocated.

10

Marketing Trends
• Sales and marketing need to be more integrated. Integrated
marketing is not a new term but many corporate functions still
operate in silos so that sales and marketing don’t coordinate efforts
enough. This is particularly important because lead generation
activities work best if coordinated. For example, generating positive
media coverage is good, generating positive coverage with an
embedded link that can drive traffic to your site is even better. This
results in content that is used only by one function when it could be
used across different functions; sometimes it results in duplicative
efforts. Getting people’s attention on social media is getting more
difficult as people’s timelines get more cluttered, as they follow,
friend or like more people, companies, etc. – by working together,
sales and marketing can make sure consistent messaging hit target
audiences, which improves effectiveness.
– Implications: Sales and marketing need to work together on direct
marketing, web content, marketing automation, advertising, social
marketing and PR to generate qualified leads and move them through
the sales pipeline

11

Marketing Trends
• Social media tracking services will hit it big in 2014.
To measure the ROI of their social media initiatives,
companies need better ways to measure their success –
so they can justify social media to their bosses. We think
Google will make more of an effort to track social media
metrics – much the way it Google Analytics tracks
website data – but there will be a growth area until the
eventual consolidation.
– Implications: Metrics continue to be important. That said, each
organization will need to determine for itself which metrics are most
important.


12

Marketing Trends
•

CES is no longer the top tech convention. The Consumer Electronics
Show (CES) has been eclipsed by South By Southwest (SXSW) but both
need a breakout show in 2014. The problem with the last two years of CES
has been its focus on the latest TVs – at a time when people are more likely
watching on their tablets not on a “TV set.” (Also Apple does not participate
in CES.) The problem with SXSW, which focuses on apps and social media,
could be app fatigue (see more, below). By the way: the hottest show right
now, in terms of buzz generated, is Comic-Con, the annual convention
celebrating comics, science fiction, movies, etc. How do we know this?
Because the deadline to request validated press passes closed more than
seven months before the actual show.
–

Implications: Both CES and SXSW have been great shows to launch new technology but
startups may need to find new venues to generate the buzz their VC investors want.


13

Marketing Trends
• PR Spam will still be an issue. In late December, NY
Times consumer columnist, David Segal, complained
about getting pitched by publicists for stories that were
clearly not relevant for his column (which has to do
with helping consumers handle complaints from
companies they dealt with). Part of the problem is that
some software makes it easy to blast emails to
hundreds or thousands of reporters at one time. We
just got an email offering as its main benefit the ability
to blast more reporters at once.
– Implications: We do not think this is a positive step in the
relationships between journalists and bloggers with PR
folks. Clearly, it is the responsibility of agencies and their
clients to reduce the level of PR spam.


14

Technology Trends
• Cloud computing will still be the big tech trend. Because
it offers convenience, connectivity and ease of use, cloud
computing will likely remain the big tech trend in 2014. Apps
and other technology that build off the cloud to enable BYOD
also will be important.
– Implications: Last year we said resistance to the cloud would be
futile, and we think that’s true in 2014. There will also be lots of
coverage of SaaS (Software as a Service). That said, it’s not
enough to have a cloud or a SaaS story to tell. It just means
there are more reporters who might be interested. The other,
main implication for cloud is that it is designed to enhance
collaboration among people; we expect more tools to help
colleagues even family members to literally be on the same page
(even if they're not using paper).


15

Technology Trends
• 2014 is the year people experience Tech Fatigue. We think
consumers are showing some fatigue when it comes to new apps
(we're not even using most of the apps we downloaded last year),
new devices that offer only marginal improvements over prior
versions (we’re a bit jaded/spoiled for our own good), multiple
chargers and flavors of USB cords. The fatigue results from the fact
that instead of simplifying our lives, some of our new tech actually
makes our lives more complicated.
– Implications: While there's always a market for a new app that offers
something fresh, we think the bar has been raised for new app
developers. We think there's also a bit of fatigue with the number of
devices we still carry -- even as smartphones incorporate other features
like GPS, camera, e-readers. But you can have an iPhone, iPad and
soon and iWatch. Then there is the need to keep all those devices
charged and ready. And you can have an iPhone 4S and an iPad Air
and need multiple cords. In fact, we expect more articles about the
challenge of no barriers between work and personal life since the
constant connectivity can be draining.


16

Technology Trends
• Cars and clothes will increasingly include design features
for smartphones. Your phone, along with your keys and
wallet, are things you always check before your leave the
house. But cars designs haven’t adopted to that reality – yet.
Unless you consider letting your phone bump around in your
cup holder, there’s not elegant way to keep your phone
accessible to make calls when you’re in your car. That will
change over the next three years but one debilitating factor is
the wide range of shapes and sizes of smart phones and their
chargers. Nonetheless, we expect more designs to make it
easy to plug devices in -- in your car, bicycle, clothes.
– Implications: Designs need to validate how important our
phones are to our lives; some coats and backpacks do, but most
others do not.


17

Technology Trends
• Upgrading the retail experience. Big retailers currently offer
two types of experiences: in-store and online, and they are
enough different that the only thing they have in common is
the logo and color design. In 2014, we expect to see more
focus on the retail experience -- bringing the best of the online
experience to in-store and vice-versa. One way retailers will
upgrade their in-store experience is through chain-specific
apps and location-based marketing initiatives.
– Implications: We expect to see more online and in-stores
redesigned to improve the experience, which includes the
delivery of online purchases. Some of that will include further
gathering of shoppers’ purchases as well as items they didn’t
purchase so that retailers can offer better recommendation
engines – even when you’re in a store.


18

Technology Trends
• Drone deliveries will not take place in 2014. Despite
what Bezos promised, drones are not going to start
delivering packages in 2014. And while it's probably
not smart to bet against Bezos, the problems facing a
commercial fleet of drones is staggering right now.
That doesn't mean, however, that the idea of more
efficient delivery systems will not be discussed. We
expect to see more coverage of same day delivery
and Sunday deliveries.
– Implications: As consumers Americans crave instant
delivery of the items they bought so Amazon and others
are going to continue to work to deliver purchased items
faster.


19

Technology Trends
• The continuing battle among huge companies.
Google v. Apple v. Samsung v. Microsoft,
Oracle v. Everyone Else. The big players will
continue to battle it out against various
competitors – when they’re not partnering with
them in other areas. This is includes the battle
focused on smartphones and tablets, which will
generate a lot of coverage in 2014.
– Implications: Big media will continue to cover Apple,
Google, Microsoft, Samsung as well as Facebook and
Twitter. If you don’t work for any of them, you’ll likely
have a more challenging time getting media
coverage.

20

Technology Trends
• Wearable technology is still ahead of the curve but will
generate some coverage as part of the Internet of Things.
While Google Glass generated a lot of coverage in 2013, it’s
probably not ready for prime time. But other types of wearable
technology – like exercise monitors such as Nike Fuel band or
Fitbit – are convenient, easy-to-use and foolproof, and will be
increasingly mainstream ways. These devices -- and other,
non-wearable technology like Nest Labs' thermostat and
smoke detectors are Wi-Fi-enabled, sensor-driven,
programmable and self-learning -- form the basis of what
some call the Internet of Things, in which devices connect to
update, aggregate data and become smarter.
– Implications: We expect increased connectivity to provide more
updates to owners, whether updating us on window-washing
fluid levels in your car (without having to open the hood) to
appliances that self-diagnose or learn your habits.

21

General News Stories in 2014
• More interest in workplace diversity. Spurred by SNL's
hiring of two black women comedians (at press time SNL had
not hired any black comic/actress this season but we expect
they will hire two black actresses), we think there will more
attention paid to diversity in TV shows and movies, and that
this could lead to a larger discussion about diversity in the
non-celebrity-filled workplace.
• Growing Hispanic influence. This is a demographics story,
one that will get mentioned a lot in the run up to the midterm
elections, especially if immigration reform gets discussed.
• Real estate market. Along with the retail sector, the media
likes to look at real estate to determine how the economy is
really going. Expect a look at renters v. owners, and the
impact of housing prices across the country. We also expect
more interest in urban real estate as companies will say
goodbye to the 'burbs to attract qualified employees.

22

General News Stories in 2014
• The new Thanksgiving tradition is shopping on
Thanksgiving. As much as we don't like it, from here on in,
the Christmas shopping season will probably start
Thanksgiving Day. Implications: This changes retail stories
told in Q3.
• Stock market and the biotech bubble. 2014 will be marked
by concerns about the health of the stock market. Of the
different sectors, rising biotech shares will generate growing
concern of a biotech bubble. That concern will affect all parts
of the industry, especially startups as VCs start getting
nervous about their portfolios. Implications: There’s not
much publicly held companies can do – except, as a Forbes
reporter once told us, have you company “do better…and
boost its share price.” We just think it’s important to
understand how editors allocate their resources (reporters’
time and the outlets’ news hole).

23

Ongoing Consumer Trends
•

•

•

The Battle for the Living Room. There are two fronts to this battle: highend TVs and gaming consoles. CES will generate some buzz for the latest
mega-ultra high def systems while the battle between Xbox and PlayStation
will especially heat up around next Christmas.
Cord-cutting will continue to be a top story. Because the different
streaming services offer complementary offerings, we think there will be a
shift in coverage away from comparing Netflix vs. Amazon Prime vs. Hulu;
instead, the focus will be more on streaming services vs. cable. Over the
next 24 months, cable, while more expensive, has an advantage because it
is still easier to use than having to switch inputs between streaming services
and cable channels.
Consumers still expect Apple to unveil a new way to watch TV, but
Apple will offer, instead, the iWatch. Samsung beat it to the punch with a
large connected wrist-device that looks it was designed by Dick Tracy, but
we expect Apple to launch its iWatch connected device before it announces
an iTV. That said, we still expect demand for an Apple iTV to generate a lot
of speculation in 2014.


24

Pre-Mature DeathWatch
• People love to predict the death of various,
usually popular items, devices or technology.
Here are candidates for 2014
– PCs: We may be in a Post-PC era but
corporations (among others) are continuing to
buy PCs or Macs; and if they are buying tablets
it’s in addition to, not a replacement of PCs. They
may be ailing, but PCs are not dead yet.
– Cable TV: Cable carriers are looking at ways to
evolve, offering services via the Internet. We
don’t think cable companies will disappear
anytime soon because they’ve made bundling –
phone/cable and Internet – so indispensable.

25

Pre-Mature DeathWatch
• Press releases: Despite social media, there’s still a
place and a value to press releases. And companies
need to make sure they include some of their
keywords in their press releases because that’s
important from an SEO perspective. Keep in mind:
Google’s algorithm has changed (again) and that has
changed how releases need to be organized. The rise
of multimedia and infographics is having a positive
effect on the role of press releases.
• Media relations: Social media is no longer just for
early-adopting B2B companies but media relations
continues to be important. By the end of the decade,
both media relations and social media will converge
into a single integrated effort.

26

Actual DeathWatch
• Things we feel are actually dying:
– The phrase “at press time”: This once routine phrase
used by the media is near obsolete in a 24/7 news cycle.
– Paper-based holiday cards: Actually, businesses do
seem to be shifting from paper-based holiday cards to
more interactive, email cards (with video or animation
accompanied by a soundtrack) to wish us all season’s
greetings. However, that’s true for business partners and
vendors but may not be true for your Aunt Gloria or college
friends.
– The words “authentic” and “artisanal”: This may be a
pet peeve, but often, when someone claims something to
be “authentic” we get the sense the thing in question is
actually not authentic. As for artisanal, that seems like a
nominee for overused word-of-the-year.

27

Ongoing Story Trends
• Obamacare and midterm elections will be the neverending stories in 2014. Healthcare.gov seems to have
turned a corner from its rough start but given midterm
elections, the state of Obamacare will clearly be a neverending story. Implications: Not so much a story that clients
will want to touch, but it will generate attention from reporters
and bloggers.
• Deficits, spending cuts, taxes, etc.: As with healthcare,
expect that editorial and op-ed pages as well as political radio
and TV shows will be littered with opposing perspectives of
the steps the country should take. Debate may be worthwhile
but don't expect Congress to be any less dysfunctional.
• Cybercrime and cyberwarfare: We’ve picked this as one of
the most important trends of the decade so expect a lot of
reporting about this throughout 2014.


28

• Privacy and security will continue to be issues that only
experts care about. Experts will talk about the death of online
privacy but actual users don't really care. They will continue to post
information about themselves because we live in a culture of
documentation, in which MIT professor Sherry Turkle observes that
our experiences don't seem to matter if we don't actually share them
via Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc. That said, we expect
continued coverage of privacy issues, especially connected to the
NSA or advertisers even though strangers can access information
about where they live, where and when they travel, what they buy,
etc. We also expect that cyberattacks and cyber warfare will
continue to generate coverage in 2014 and beyond. Implications:
From a privacy perspective, we think there could be a backlash if the
big data about consumers' habits that are being shared with
advertisers enables too much contact that makes advertisers appear
"creepy."


29

• Bitcoin and cashless payments will continue to generate
interest. We’ve seen a rise in interest in bitcoins, and it
appears bitcoins may be on the edge of going mainstream.
We don’t think that will happen in 2014 but we do think the
topic will get discussed. Meanwhile we continue to expect
digital wallets or e-wallets to go mainstream in 2016. As we
get closer, we expect there to be articles comparing bitcoin vs.
Google Wallet vs. Isis (from AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile),
focusing on security and privacy issues around each
standard.
• Star Wars: Currently scheduled for a 2015 release, the next
Star Wars movie will be cool but, even with director JJ Abrams
at the helm, it may not live up to fanboys’ overactive
imaginations. Meanwhile, expect Comic-Cons 2014 and 2015
to get major coverage.


30

Ongoing Tech Trends
• The battle of tablets: After several years of breathless media
coverage, the battle for tablet supremacy began when Apple,
recognizing a vulnerability in its product line, launched the
iPad Mini. Last year, we said it was a two-horse race between
iPads and the Kindle Fire but expect a third player to gain
traction – enter the Samsung Galaxy. This story has just
begun.
• Mobile everything will be important, including mobile
search and mobile recommendations. We’ll see the later
perhaps playing out with shopper-specific recommendations
while walking in retail stores – positioned as your own
personal shopper.
• Crowdsourcing will continue to be a source of investors
and a marketing boost. But that will primarily be for
consumer-oriented products, not B2B technology.


31

Ongoing Tech Trends
•

•

•
•
•

Virtual startups in otherwise unlikely fields. We’ve already seen the growth of virtual
biotechs, and we see that continuing. We expect to see virtual enterprise application
developers, who rely on outsourcer providers to do the heavy lifting. We don’t necessarily
expect to see a lot of coverage of this trend, just that this is how startups will structure
themselves. There’s a financial benefit to being virtual, including the hope for greater
efficiencies but with that come other challenges, like credibility with customers and keeping
every consultant, vendor and partner on the same page.
3D printers are still not yet ready for prime time. They will continue to make inroads,
and to generate some coverage, but this is not (yet) a device for every household. It’s too
expensive and too complicated.
Big data: The media will continue to cover big data as it continues to go mainstream…until
big data is supplanted by the next data trend.
Consumerization of enterprise apps: Mobile and BYOD forces require enterprise apps to
be intuitive and easy to use. Ugly interfaces will no longer close sales.
Second screens: Increasingly people watch television programs with their tablets, too, so
they can comment real-time on what they’re watching. Helping customers express
themselves and buy while they’re watching TV is going to be an important from a marketing
perspective in the coming years.


32

Ongoing Tech Trends
•

Cognitive and context computing: IBM Watson represents cognitive
computing, which "combines natural language processing, machine
learning, and hypothesis generation and evaluation," (according to IBM) and
it didn't just beat Jeopardy champions in 2011. IBM Watson (and cognitive
computing) is kicking off a new wave in computing. (Yes, we know, we've
heard that before.) Fortune did a cover story in Sept. 2013 reporting on
IBM's Massive Bet on Watson. Contextual computing is not vastly different.
Fast Company breathlessly reported that contextual computing -- including
Google's latest search algorithm, will bring "Machines that understand you
and everything you care about, anticipate your behavior and emotions,
absorb your social graph, interpret your intentions, and make life, um,
'easier.'" We expect both cognitive and context computing will get more
attention in 2014, even though we're in the early stages.
– Implications: IBM Watson's ability to provide students (and the rest of us) with almost
instant access to historical data means that educators must rethink curriculum. Less
important, now, are specific dates of historical events; what's now important is
understanding the substantive issues surround the Treaty of Ghent, for example -issues that sometimes get scant attention in the need to emphasize dates. We see
that happening in business, too.


33

Questions?
Comments?
Agree or Disagree?
Let us know
Norman Birnbach
Birnbach Communications
781.639.6701
birnbach@birnbachcom.com
www.birnbachcom.com
www.twitter.com/normanbirnbach


34

Birnbach Communications Predictions for 2014

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