Climate Change, Petrol Peak & Economic Crisis have been called the 3Es of Collapse: Environmental, Energetic & Economic. * It is important to be well informed about the basic facts & science of these, how they interconnect, their causes & predictable effects. * But also explore what cultural & inner meanings are being proposed & how we can turn these crises into opportunities. * In this class we look at these issues in some detail. * What does all this mean for us as integral designers for sustainability?

1. +
M d l 4o t eP
o ue
PDC
f h DC+ + +
+ + Energy & EcoTechnology
We dedicate this Module to the Mother &
Father of Integral Permaculture: Dana
Class Meadows & Howard Odum, two original
pioneers who helped humanity make
M4.1 great strides in understanding systemic
thinking, in all four quadrants.
Peak
Climate Change, Petrol Peak & Economic Crisis have been called the 3Es
of Collapse: Environmental, Energetic & Economic.
*
It is important to be well informed about the basic facts & science of these,
how they interconnect, their causes & predictable effects.
*
But also explore what cultural & inner meanings are being proposed &
how we can turn these crises into opportunities.
*
In this class we look at these issues in some detail.
*
What does all this mean for us as integral designers for sustainability?

2. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions

3. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions

4. “In times of
extraordinary POPULATION
change, GROWTH
&
BIODIVERSITY
the problem is
EXTINCTION
NOT that we
can't achieve
all that we can
dream, PEAK OIL
2000 CLIMATE
2020 CHANGE
but that we
DON'T dream all
that we could MONETARY
CRISIS
achieve.” &
RAISE OF THE
(Dee Hock) INFORMATION
AGE

5. Peak of Petrol Extraction
“Initially there was only a fixed and finite amount of oil in the
ground, and that, as exploitation proceeds, the amount of oil
remaining diminishes monotonically.”
M.King Hubbert

6. Oil formed some 90-150 million years ago,
& there is a FINITE quantity
The extraction of all finite resources
(eg. oil wells)
follow the Hubbert Curve
Peak oil is reached when HALF of
the resource has been used:
> then the cost of extraction get
increasingly higher as profits
diminish
(Peak = end of CHEAP oil)

7. Remember from Resources Class
M2.5 About Stocks
Stock - a place where energy is stored: eg. resources like forest
biomass, soil, organic matter, coal, oxides, etc.
Non-Renewables Renewables
eg. chemicals, minerals eg. biological
(petrol, coal, copper, etc.)
(forests, fish, water, etc.)
4) REDUCE with use
5) CAUSE POLLUTION when used
1) INCREASE when used moderately
Use 4 & 5 only 2) are NOT affected by use
to create
3) DISAPPEAR / DEGRADE if not used
infrastructure

8. Renewable Resource
extraction rate
(eg. fish)
capital stocks
(eg. ships, etc.)
reserve stock
(eg. fish)

9. Non-Renewable Stocks
extraction rate
(eg. petrol)
capital stock
(eg. machinery)
reserve stock
(eg. petrol)

10. <<< Oil Wells
Petrol is a non-
renewable stock
so Everywhere
you look ...
Countries >>>
... you see the
same pattern

11. Global summary: Discoveries, production, demand
Thousands of annual barrels
Annual discoveries Discoveries projection Annual production
Production projection Annual demand Demand projection
Sources

12. Are these just
coincidentally
similar?
What are the
relationships
between them?
Which drive
Which
& how?

13. Energy and
Population
First oil barrel
?

14. Ca b nCy l
ro ce
Atmosphere
retains almost 750 GtC = Giga tons of Carbon
Energy and GtC 1 Gt = 1 Billion tons
Global
Warming
Dead
Organisms Vegetation almost 600 GtC
Soils 1600 GtC
Oceans 40.000 GtC
Fossil CO2

15. Carbon Concentration in the Atmosphere
XX & XXI
392 ppm centuries
2011
End of Industrial
last Ice Era
Age
Start of
Agriculture
Transition Training 2007
PPM = Parts Per Million ..... 350 is a top max limit
see >>

16. POPULATION
GROWTH
&
BIODIVERSITY
EXTINCTION Why do we think &
PEAK 2000
CLIMAT act as if these
E
OIL 2020
CHANGE major trends are
ECONOMIC
somehow separate?
CRISIS

17. Two examples of dis-connected things
(in our current way of thinking)
Matter/Energy ~ Money
Humanity ~ Nature
Source: http://emergysystems.org

18. Wealth stems from…
Resources
Money
Source: http://emergysystems.org

19. Physical Laws of the Universe……
Only apply here…
Don’t apply here…
Source: http://emergysystems.org

20. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions

21. Systems Design - a Review
Dana Meadows 1) they have these components
in class 2.1
Elements
InterConnexions
Purpose
heart
2) & complex systems in turn
are made up of sub-systems veins
S s e s&
ytm
S b ytm
u S se s
arteries
capillaries
your circulatory etc.
system

22. Systems Design - a Review
Hierarchy ecosystem
Holarchy
2) complex systems Holons
in turn
are made up of sub-
systems
organism
3) & sub-systems organize
themselves into nested hierarchies
(holarchies)
organ

23. Systems Design - a Review
1) have these components 2) complex systems made up of
Elements sub-systems
interConnections
Purpose 3) sub-systems organized in
nested hierarchies (holarchies)
4) & we have a great
symbols language to make
maps (models) of complex
life systems

24. AS s e inHa m n
ytm ro y
Elements &
Eg. a healthy body: the InterConnexions Work
whole self-regulates to
keep you alive Toward a Common Purpose
heart
veins
your
digestive
system
arteries
capillaries
your respiratory your circulatory etc.
system system

25. AS s e inDis r o y
ytm -
Ha m n
Purpose
Eg. a university: as intended & discover knowledge & pass it to
how can mis-align (bad design) future generations
Professors
ignore students in
order to write
their papers
to get tenure
balance the sack
budget profesors
to get good
grades
Students
cheat in exams
Sub-systems can
enter into conflict
with the intended Administrators
purpose

26. AS s e inDis r o y
ytm -
Ha m n
a Rational System Vision (for our Purpose
'system') > a sustainable one > a For all creatures to thrive
PermaCulture
Energy thriving
creativity &
use the least commerce to
amount possible & supply all
slowly (REDUCE healthy human
CONSUMPTION) needs
(PEOPLE
CARE)
toward maximum
fertility & diversity
(EARTH CARE)
Environment
Economy

27. AS s e inDis r o y
ytm -
Ha m n
The current 'system' & how it might Purpose
be currently mis-aligned or 'off For all creatures to thrive or for
purpose' (discuss in Aulas!) humans to dominate all species?
make it as cheap,
abundant & Energy thriving
creativity &
universally use the least commerce to
available as amount possible & supply all
possible, with fast slowly (REDUCE maximum healthy human
turn-over CONSUMPTION) consumption needs
at highest (PEOPLE
possible profit CARE)
toward maximum
fertility & diversity
(EARTH CARE)
Environment
try to adjust &
survive under Sub-systems in
brutal attack serious conflict
with Permaculture Economy
Ethics

28. FORS u y o p :
td- Gr u s
HOW DO EVEN JUST THE HUMAN-MADE & how they could this
DRIVERS ESSENTIALLY CLASH? clash 'resolve' in a
more oppressive
world government?
ENERGY DRIVER ECONOMY DRIVER
make it as cheap, maximum "An 'ecological' orientation
abundant & consumption at alone,
universally available highest possible outside of a
as possible, with fast critical social framework,
profit
turn-over is dangerously unstable.
The record of fascist ecology
Rather than: shows that
SUSTAINABLE A SUSTAINABLE under the right conditions
ECONOMY such an orientation
ENERGY USE
can quickly lead to
thriving creativity & barbarism."
use the least
commerce to
amount possible & >> see Fascist Ecology article
supply all healthy
slowly (REDUCE human needs
in e-Book
CONSUMPTION) (PEOPLE CARE)

29. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions

31. If we put creativity in the X axis ...
Creative Descent
(Permaculture)
Earth stewardship
Creativity
Techno-fantasy

32. working to preserve the
The two most typical status quo
“strategies” to face the
combined
global crisis correspond
with these future with the belief the new
scenarios technologies will solve
our problems
FEAR can be
a Motivator
or a Paralyzing
influence
When
How
For Which People?
longing for an
earlier social and
moral order
+
anger at having lost
control over our
future

33. But both strategies are not so different, both are based in
a belief that we can do little to change things
and both are anchored in the past:
advocates of the status quo basically extrapolate what
they regard as positive trends from the past;
opponents fight these trends.
“Either we are saved by
science & technology
or
we will have to go back to
the caves”

34. The 4th scenario has to be based on
different assumptions, Eg.:
The future will be Very Different
from the past
& Lower consumption = Higher Standard of Life
So we will need
to
“learn from the
future as it
emerges”

35. For study groups: All of these
are now
converging
extinction of
biodiversity
&
the gray wave in a small
window of time
PEAK 2000 CLIMATE
OIL 2020 CHANGE
>> or a small
monetary
instability window of
&
info revolution opportunity?
What OTHER meanings can we Why have we created
DESIGN for these times? & such a big crisis,
where will they lead us? collectively?

36. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions

37. T c n l g ist e
eh oo y h
A p ic t no
p l a io f
BUT ...
s ie c
c ne
• WHICH science do we need to apply to solve THESE problems?
• WHICH QUADRANT/S REALLY NEED THE MOST WORK HERE?
+ PDC
+ +

38. T c n l g ist e
eh oo y h
A p ic t no
p l a io f
Given that ... s ie c
c ne
• we have known of the problems since the late 1960s
• the solutions are relatively simple & most are also quick to
implement
• There have been innumerable international conferences about
these
• huge amounts of resources (especially international travel) are
going into trying to resolve them
• & our lives + the world as we know it depend on reaching an
agreement

39. But we haven't reached
an Agreement
in some 50+ years
Why?

40. with mathematical accuracy
Fractals are patterns that repeat

41. Look anything like the
whole
or some other part
Although each part might not

42. When did you last have
an argument
Which started as apparently
insoluble
& you successfully
arrived at a WIN-WIN
agreement?
or at least a
MUTUAL
understanding?

43. M1.6 Hypothesis
THINK
Observe
Perception Is Not Reality Reflexiona
r
USE this process
non-selectively!
(not just when
'convenient')
ACT Design
Experiment Prediction
dogma
what is/ "conflict"? Conflict M3.3
gossipist
therapist
Resolution
my your
story story
cycle

44. The general Larger
Pattern seems to be
an Inability to Resolve
Conflict
Get
we Avoid Impatient
Fear
Demonize arguing
& Don't have
Belittle
adequate
Not Listen Technologies !!
& Knowledge

45. So maybe..
learning to LET things
"come to a Head"
is an important Micro-way
to Ultimately solve
the general Macro-Problem
Discuss & aim to
in disagree
Aulas!! :)
Learning to Accept & Work with
+
Harvest the Rich Yields of
Our "Dark Side"

46. M4.1 Peak * Is our Society
Collapsing?
"Peak Everything" - Interconnections
Systems Thinking Required!
Designing with Cultural Meanings
Micro & Macro of Problems & Solutions