November 2016 market commentary

1. November Market Commentary
2016
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Domestic equity indices finished sharply higher for the month while international developed and emerging markets declined.
Both global and domestic fixed income indices experienced negative returns. Returns across asset classes were largely linked
in some form or fashion to the surprise victory by Donald Trump in the U.S. Presidential election.
For the month, the S&P 500 Index rose 3.7%, while the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies gained 11.2%. The energy,
financials and basic materials sectors were the best performers, while utilities and consumer goods were the weakest
performing sectors. Across market capitalizations, small-cap securities generally outperformed their large- and mid-cap
counterparts. Across styles, value outperformed growth across all market caps.
U.S. fixed income markets were generally negative for the month. Short-maturity Treasuries outperformed longer-dated issues
as the yield curve steepened. Investment grade corporate securities fell as utility-, industrial-, and financial-related issuers
were negative for the month. Lower quality, higher yielding corporate securities also finished lower with the only exception
coming from the lowest-rated issues. Municipal bonds were generally negative with longer duration and higher yielding
municipals performing worse.
International markets were mostly lower as the MSCI EAFE Index declined 2.0%. Among the largest European markets, the UK
rose 0.4%, while Germany and France fell by 3.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Within the Pacific region, Japan declined 2.4%, while
Australia gained 0.4%. In the emerging markets, the MSCI EM Index ended 4.6% lower despite a broad increase in the
Bloomberg Commodity Index.
November 2016 Market Commentary
Hedge fund returns for current month unavailable at time of publication

3. Economy
• According to the second estimate of economic growth released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), third quarter GDP
increased at an annual quarter-over-quarter rate of 3.2%. This reflected positive contributions from personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment and federal government spending. This was partially offset by
negative contributions from residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. The third and final
estimate of third quarter GDP is due out on December 22, 2016.
• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the maintenance of the target range for the federal funds rate
following its early November meeting. Throughout the month, the rate of inflation has crept closer to the central bank’s 2%
target. In addition, favorable unemployment numbers and wage rate increases have many investors predicting that the Fed
will increase the federal funds rate following the December meeting. The FOMC will hold its next and final scheduled meeting
for the year on December 13-14, 2016.
World Market Recap
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Fixed Income
• U.S. Treasury yields increased during the month as the yield on the 10-year increased by 53 basis points to end at 2.37%.
Yields surged throughout the month after Republicans took control of the White House while also maintaining majorities in
both the Senate and House of Representatives, with investors anticipating future fiscal stimulus given less political gridlock.
• Investment grade corporate securities were negative for the month. The financials sector declined by 2.0% and was the best
performing corporate credit sector. Industrial-related credits followed with a loss of 2.9%, while utility-related issues fell by
3.6%.
• Lower quality, higher yielding corporate securities finished mixed. For the month, BB-rated issues fell 0.9%, B-rated securities
decreased 0.2%, while CCC-rated credits gained 0.3% as a yield advantage in the lowest quality issues compensated for price
declines.
• Fixed rate MBS declined by 1.7% during the month. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home
sales continued to rise in October, reaching the highest annualized pace in nearly a decade. Monthly and annual sales increases
were seen in all major regions in October. According to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, October’s widespread sales gains
can be attributed to pent-up demand from tight supply that held back potential buyers over the summer.
• Municipal bonds ended the month lower despite an expectation of increased infrastructure spending under a Donald Trump
presidency. Typically, municipal bonds have been the primary financing vehicle for infrastructure spending. Uncertainty
surrounding how municipal bonds will be affected by the financing of Mr. Trump’s infrastructure plan negatively impacted the
asset class, due to the expectation of increased private investment.

4. • U.S. stocks finished mostly higher during the month as the S&P 500 Index rose 3.7% and the technology-heavy NASDAQ
Composite increased by 2.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.9%, with Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH),
and Caterpillar (CAT) cumulatively accounting for over half of the move.
• Energy was one of the best performing equity sectors during the month, gaining 8.6%. Recovering oil prices lifted E&P
companies while pipeline returns were more muted as the permit for a controversial pipeline stretching 1,170 miles through
North Dakota was denied. In the alternatives space, Tesla shareholders approved a controversial deal allowing their merger
with SolarCity (SCTY), which will bring Elon Musk’s two sustainable energy businesses together under one roof.
• Financials rose by 8.6% for the month, which was in line with the gain in the energy sector. Banks led the way marking
November as the strongest monthly performances by the industry in history. Increasing interest rates along with speculation
of less regulatory burden under a Republican led government helped lift the industry higher.
• The industrials sector increased 7.6%, which brought the sector back from a troublesome start earlier in the year. Mr. Trump’s
infrastructure plan may have influenced the industry as industrial transportation and industrial suppliers were the strongest
performing industries.
• The utilities sector was the worst performing sector declining 5.3% over the month. With the increased likelihood of a rate
hike in December, investors may be veering away from sectors that have previously been considered a “proxy for bonds”.
U.S. Equity
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5. • Canadian equities rose 2.4% on the back of marginally stronger oil prices. Statistics Canada, the country’s statistical agency,
announced that the economy grew by 0.9% during the third quarter of 2016, reversing a 0.3% decline in the second quarter. A
rebound in energy exports, which increased 6.1%, was the largest contributor to overall GDP growth. Energy exports had
fallen 5.1% in the second quarter as a result of the Fort McMurray wildfires. Households proved to be in positive shape, as
disposable income increased 2.2% and spending climbed 0.6% during the quarter. Despite the positives, the economy did see a
decline in housing investment following nine consecutive quarters of growth and business investment, particularly in
machinery and equipment
• Eurozone equity returns were mostly lower at month end as the international developed markets saw a more negative
reaction to Mr. Trump’s victory in the U.S. election. Much of the month was spent focused on a constitutional vote in Italy that
was seeking to remove power from the Senate and thus require laws to only be approved by the lower house and the Prime
Minister. This particular event carried more weight due to the fact that Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has advocated for
removing power from the Senate, said he would resign if the referendum was rejected. We now know that the country (which
voted on December 4, 2016) elected to maintain the status quo, which brought about certainty, but also the resignation of the
Prime Minister.
• The UK equity market gained 0.4% for the month. The High Court ruled that the government is not able to trigger Article 50 of
the Lisbon Treaty, which is required to start the process for the UK’s exit from the EU, without the prior authority of
Parliament. The ruling increases the complexity of the process as the members of Parliament will want to know details of the
negotiation plans with the EU before they vote to trigger Article 50, but the government does not want to divulge too much of
their plan for fear it may undermine their negotiating leverage. There is also the potential that Parliament would vote to not
trigger Article 50, which would go against the popular vote, although this is currently viewed as a lower probability
proposition.
• Within the Pacific region, Australia rose 0.4%, while New Zealand declined 2.9%. Japanese equities also fell, losing 2.4%.
Japanese GDP in the third quarter expanded by an annualized 2.2%, outpacing the 0.9% increase expected by the market. This
marked the third consecutive quarter of expansion for the Japanese economy. The largest contributor to growth was an
increase in net exports which was largely the result of lower domestic demand spurred by gains in the currency. The Bank of
Japan’s policy meeting that concluded on the first of the month yielded no changes. Its next meeting will be on December 19-
20, 2016.
International Developed Markets
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6. • Within Asia, China declined 1.2%. News surfaced that the country plans to tighten controls on domestic companies looking
to invest abroad in an effort to help slow a surge of capital moving offshore. It is expected that stricter regulatory oversight
will be levied, particularly on deals larger than $10 billion for privately-owned corporations while state-owned companies
would be subject to a $1 billion limit. Elsewhere in the region, India fell 7.5% for the month and the country is currently
experiencing a cash crunch following the removal of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes from circulation. The measure was aimed at
cracking down on corruption, but at the same time resulted in the removal of more than 80% of India’s currency in
circulation. The government has acknowledged the liquidity concern and has urged patience until the supply of replacement
notes can be printed. Among other large Asian markets, Taiwan fell 2.3%, while South Korea ended 2.6% lower.
• In Latin America, Brazil fell 11.2%, giving back much of its large gain in October. A weaker Brazilian real can largely be
attributed to the decline as a surging U.S. dollar also hurt returns elsewhere in the region. Mexico declined 12.7%, which
along with the peso was impacted by concerns over protectionist trade measures that could be implemented by the
incoming U.S. administration. Additionally, the central bank increased rates by 50 bps points to help support the peso. The
smaller Chilean market lost 4.8%.
• Among EMEA countries, South Africa declined 8.0%. In the Middle East, Turkey lost 15.0%. Within Eastern Europe, Hungary
fell 4.7%, while Poland weakened 7.5%. Russia gained 4.8% as sentiment toward the country lightened following the
election.
International Emerging Markets
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7. Index Proxies Utilized: Cash – Citigroup 90 Day T-Bill; TIPS – Barclays US Treasury TIPS; Aggregate Bond – Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index; Municipal Bond – Barclays
Municipal 5-Year Bond, High Yield – Barclays US Corporate High Yield; Foreign Bond – Barclays Global Aggregate Ex USD; Local Currency Denominated Emerging Markets Debt
– JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Unhedged Index; Large Value – Russell 1000 Value; Large Blend – S&P 500; Large Growth – Russell 1000 Growth; Small Value – Russell
2000 Value; Small Blend – Russell 2000; Small Growth – Russell 2000 Growth; International – MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets – MSCI EM; REITs - FTSE NAREIT Equity
REITs; Commodities – Bloomberg Commodity Index; MLP – Alerian MLP; Hedge Funds – HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index; Balanced – 5% Barclays US Treasury TIPS, 10%
Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, 4.5% Barclays Global Aggregate Ex USD, 4.5% Barclays Global Aggregate Ex USD (Hedged), 9% Barclays US Corporate High Yield, 2%
JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Unhedged Index , 16% S&P 500, 5% Russell 2000, 12% MSCI EAFE, 7% MSCI EM, 5% FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs, 5% Bloomberg
Commodity Index, 5% Alerian MLP, 10% HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index; Domestic Equity Indices – Russell 1000, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 1000 Value, Russell Mid-
Cap, Russell Mid Cap Growth, Russell Mid-Cap Value, Russell 2000, Russell 2000 Growth, Russell 2000 Value; International Developed Markets – MSCI EAFE; US Dollar – US Dollar
Index; Unhedged Developed Fixed Income – Barclays Global Aggregate Ex USD (Hedged); Real Assets – Bloomberg Commodity Index; Materials, Financials, Energy, Oil & Gas,
Healthcare, Information Technology, Consumer Related Sectors – Dow Jones Sector Indices; Small Cap Securities – Russell 2000, Russell 2000 Growth, Russell 2000 Value; Large
Cap Securities – Russell 1000, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 1000 Value; Mid Cap Securities – Russell Mid Cap, Russell Mid Cap Growth, Russell Mid Cap Value; Growth; Russell
1000 Growth, Russell Mid Cap Growth, Russell Small Cap Growth; Value – Russell 1000 Value, Russell Mid Cap Value, Russell 2000 Value; Fixed Income Markets –Barclays US
Treasury TIPS, Barclays Municipal 5-Year Bond, Barclays Aggregate; Investment Grade Corporate Securities – Barclays US Credit; Long Maturity Treasuries – Barclays US
Treasury 20+ Year; Shorter Dated Issues – Barclays US Treasury 1-3 Year; Industrial- , Financial- and Utility-Related Credits – Barclays Fixed Income Sector Indices; BB-Rated, B-
Rated and CCC-Rated – Barclays Fixed Income Credit Quality Indices; MBS – Barclays US MBS; ABS – Barclays ABS; Crude Oil – Bloomberg Composite Crude Oil; Australia, New
Zealand, Japan, China, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Africa, Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Canada, United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Italy,
France – MSCI Country Index Gross return USD; Natural Gas – Bloomberg Natural Gas
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Disclosures
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