This new report tracks and quantifies the latest developments in the BIPV sector, showing, for example, how and where collaborations between the PV industry and construction industry are creating new ways to add value to buildings and creating new ways for both industries to make money. This report also discusses how BIPV may benefit from today’s regulatory climate. Because BIPV enables the costs of the building fabric and photovoltaic system to be shared over the same infrastructure, NanoMarkets sees the BIPV market as having an increasingly attractive business case, even if subsidies for PV are reduced, as seems likely. Thus BIPV may be an important step towards PV becoming a substantial industry that may eventually be self-sustaining without government subsidies. The coverage of the report includes the residential and commercial/industrial sectors; new construction and retrofits. We consider the sizes of the various BIPV markets, the roles and strategies of important firms in the industry, and the various PV technologies as they relate to BIPV. In total the report provides a thorough guide to the revenue-generating opportunities for BIPV over the next eight years.

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Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics Markets--2011
Nano-375
Published July 2011
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Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based
on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be
guaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact
or judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative
purchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales
agreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express
written permission of NanoMarkets, LC.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1
E.1 The Evolving Business Case for BIPV............................................................................ 1 Page | i
E.2 BIPV and Aesthetic Opportunities ............................................................................... 2
E.2.1 Aesthetics and the New Market for BIPV.................................................................................................. 3
E.2.2 Aesthetics, Architects and BIPV ................................................................................................................ 4
E.3 Market Positioning and Distinguishing Features of BIPV .............................................. 5
E.3.1 Opportunities for PV Companies .............................................................................................................. 6
E.3.2 Opportunities for Architects, Builders, and Roofers .................................................. 9
E.3.3 Opportunities for Distribution and Retail ............................................................... 11
E.4 Firms to Watch ......................................................................................................... 11
E.4.1 Ascent Solar Technologies (NASDAQ: ASTI) ............................................................................................ 11
E.4.2 Dow Chemical ......................................................................................................................................... 12
E.4.3 Dyesol and Tata and Corus...................................................................................................................... 13
E.4.4 Global Solar ............................................................................................................................................. 14
E.4.5 Konarka and Solarmer ............................................................................................................................. 15
E.4.6 Lumeta .................................................................................................................................................... 16
E.4.7 Odersun................................................................................................................................................... 16
E.4.8 Pythagoras Solar ..................................................................................................................................... 17
E.4.9 Soltecture ................................................................................................................................................ 18
E.4.10 SRS Energy ............................................................................................................................................. 19
E.4.11 Sunovation ............................................................................................................................................ 20
E.4.12 United Solar Ovonic .............................................................................................................................. 20
E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of BIPV Markets .................................................... 21
Chapter One: Introduction ................................................................................................. 23
1.1 Background of this Report ........................................................................................ 23
1.1.1 BIPV Market Drivers ................................................................................................................................ 23
1.1.2 Three Approaches to Building Integration: Rigid, Flexible, Transparent ............................................... 24
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report .......................................................................... 26
1.3 Methodology of this Report ...................................................................................... 27
1.4 Plan of this Report .................................................................................................... 27
Chapter Two: Recent Commercial Developments in BIPV ................................................... 29
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2.1 Rigid BIPV: Roofing and Cladding .............................................................................. 29
2.1.1 Rigid BIPV Trends in 2010 and 2011 ....................................................................................................... 31
2.1.2 Key Suppliers in the Rigid BIPV Sector .................................................................................................... 32
2.2 Flexible BIPV: Shingles, Laminates, Etc. .................................................................... 32
2.2.1 Flexible BIPV Trends in 2010 and 2011 ................................................................................................... 33 Page | ii
2.2.2 Key Suppliers in the Flexible BIPV Sector ................................................................................................ 34
2.3 BIPV Glass: Transparent and Semitransparent.......................................................... 36
2.3.1 BIPV Glass Trends in 2010 and 2011 ....................................................................................................... 38
2.3.2 Key Suppliers in the BIPV Glass Sector .................................................................................................... 40
2.4 Cost Issues ............................................................................................................... 41
2.4.1 Cost of Roofing Materials........................................................................................................................ 41
2.4.2 Cost of PV ................................................................................................................................................ 41
2.4.3 Cost Benefits of BIPV Glass ..................................................................................................................... 43
2.5 BIPV Trends by Type of PV Technology ..................................................................... 44
2.5.1 Crystalline Silicon .................................................................................................................................... 44
2.5.2 Thin-Film Silicon ...................................................................................................................................... 45
2.5.3 CIGS ......................................................................................................................................................... 47
2.5.4 CdTe ........................................................................................................................................................ 49
2.5.5 OPV and DSC ........................................................................................................................................... 50
2.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter ............................................................................... 52
Chapter Three: Characteristics of BIPV Markets ................................................................. 56
3.1 BIPV and Prestige Buildings: Real Market or PR? ....................................................... 56
3.1.1 BIPV Demand Drivers .............................................................................................................................. 58
3.1.2 BIPV Mandates ........................................................................................................................................ 61
3.1.3 Role of Strategic Partnering .................................................................................................................... 63
3.1.4 Maturity of Technologies for BIPV .......................................................................................................... 65
3.2 BIPV and Residential Property Markets..................................................................... 66
3.2.1 Roofing and Siding Materials in Residential Buildings ............................................................................ 67
3.2.2 BIPV Glass................................................................................................................................................ 69
3.3 BIPV and Commercial Property Markets ................................................................... 69
3.3.1 Roofing Materials in Commercial Buildings ............................................................................................ 69
3.3.2 Siding Materials in Commercial Buildings ............................................................................................... 70
3.3.3 BIPV Glass................................................................................................................................................ 71
3.4 Architects as Shapers of the BIPV Market ................................................................. 74
3.5 BIPV Developments in Key International Markets ..................................................... 75
3.5.1 Japan ....................................................................................................................................................... 75
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3.5.2 China ....................................................................................................................................................... 77
3.5.3 Germany ................................................................................................................................................. 78
3.5.4 U.S. .......................................................................................................................................................... 80
3.6 Can BIPV be Just Another Building Product? ............................................................. 81
3.6.1 BIPV Codes and Regulations ................................................................................................................... 82 Page | iii
3.6.2 BIPV Reliability and Bankability .............................................................................................................. 83
3.6.3 Distribution Channels for BIPV ................................................................................................................ 84
3.7 Key Points Made in this Chapter ............................................................................... 85
Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts .................................................................................... 88
4.1 Forecasting Methodology ......................................................................................... 88
4.1.1 Economics, Construction and BIPV ......................................................................................................... 89
4.1.2 Alternative Economic Scenarios.............................................................................................................. 90
4.1.3 Scope of Forecast .................................................................................................................................... 90
4.2 BIPV Cost by Product Type ........................................................................................ 92
4.2.1 Cost Assumptions for Rigid BIPV Forecasts ............................................................................................. 93
4.2.2 Cost Assumptions for Transparent/Semi-Transparent BIPV Forecasts ................................................... 93
4.2.3 Cost Assumptions for Flexible BIPV Forecasts ........................................................................................ 94
4.3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Rigid BIPV Tiles and Panels ................................................... 94
4.4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent and Semi-Transparent BIPV Products ................ 96
4.5 Eight-Year Forecasts of Flexible BIPV Products and Laminates ................................... 99
4.6 Summary of Forecasts ............................................................................................ 101
4.6.1 Summary of Worldwide BIPV Markets by Product Type ...................................................................... 101
4.6.2 Summary of Worldwide BIPV Markets by Watts Shipped and Technology Type ................................ 103
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used In this Report ......................................................... 106
About the Author ......................................................................................................... 107
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List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Cost Advantages and Disadvantages of BIPV ........................................................................... 3
Exhibit E-2: Aesthetic Advantages and Disadvantages of BIPV .................................................................... 5
Page | iv
Exhibit E-3: Summary of BIPV Markets ($ Millions) ................................................................................. 21
Exhibit 2-1: Cost of PV Systems per Square of Roof Area, 10 Percent Module Efficiency ($) ............................ 41
Exhibit 2-2: Peak Power Producible per Square of Roofing ....................................................................... 42
Exhibit 3-1: Interest in BIPV by End-Use Segment as Determined by ROI Term ............................................. 60
Exhibit 3-2: Common Building Requirements for BIPV ............................................................................. 82
Exhibit 3-3: Major PV Standards that also Apply to BIPV .......................................................................... 83
Exhibit 4-1: BIPV Cost by Product Type (Cost per Watt $) ......................................................................... 92
Exhibit 4-2: Rigid BIPV Installations by Technology ................................................................................. 95
Exhibit 4-3: BIPV Glass Installations by PV Technology............................................................................. 98
Exhibit 4-4: Flexible BIPV Installations by PV Technology ........................................................................100
Exhibit 4-5: BIPV Products by Product Type ..........................................................................................102
Exhibit 4-6: BIPV Installations by PV Technology ...................................................................................104
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Executive Summary
E.1 The Evolving Business Case for BIPV
As the construction industry continues in its doldrums throughout the world, construction
firms are looking for new ways to boost business prospects. The trend toward "Green" and Page | 1
"Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED)" buildings is appealing from the
construction industry's perspective, because it can add some appeal to buildings, making
them more salable in a down market. Rental buildings with "Green/LEED" appeal have
relatively higher occupancy rates, making pragmatic investment in Building-Integrated
Photovoltaic (BIPV) retrofits part of an owner's long-term management options, regardless of
government incentives.
Green/LEED building technologies include smart-window coatings, solar-thermal, energy-
efficient lighting, and rain water recycling, among many options. BIPV is one of the more
significant Green/LEED technologies, since electricity cost is one of the main ongoing building
operating expenses. However, BIPV must still compete with other Green/LEED building
technologies in the market, and the decision-maker often is not the long-term owner.
Government incentives and mandates specifically for BIPV already exist in many regions, and
NanoMarkets sees these initiatives continuing if not increasing over the timeframe of this
report. In response to the tragedy of the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear meltdowns Japan, China
and Germany have all announced changes to national energy strategies to de-emphasize
nuclear power and replace it with renewables like PV. The Japanese government has declared
that all of the country should have BIPV by 2030. Government mandates will probably lag
feed-in tariffs (FITs), but both should slowly increase over the forecast period of this report.
With government incentives currently in place, some BIPV products can already be positioned
in target regions as "free PV," where the BIPV after incentives costs no more than other high-
end cladding materials. Many second-generation BIPV products target return-on-investment
(ROI) times of three-five years with current incentives and seven-ten years without incentives.
Thus, demand for BIPV should remain solid and growing over the duration of the forecast in
this report.
Another big opportunity for BIPV is the ability to provide PV power solutions that lower total
building costs for buildings that are planning to use PV in the first place. Achieving this goal is
always a good thing, and in a construction market that is having serious problems worldwide,
it is a very good thing! In particular, retrofit building markets often pick up during new
construction downturns, and with excess building inventories in most global regions in 2011,
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we expect that much of the demand for BIPV over the duration of this report will be for
retrofits. Retrofits may be triggered by an eventual failure of an old cladding product, or by
financial incentives.
The retrofit market includes people "shopping" for a possible new roof as the old roof wears-
Page | 2
out over time, as well as "post-incident" repairs. "Whatever you buy, it's coming off in 18
years," commented one interviewee working on BIPV for rooftops. In the case of people only
shopping for a new roof, they may be more inclined to wait a year or more to install BIPV if
they think that incentives and feed-in-tariffs may improve.
In the case of people considering BIPV post-incident, the need to re-establish a leak-free roof
clearly forces an immediate decision. However, in both retrofit cases, the "go/no-go" decision-
maker will generally be the long-term building owner, and so less than ten-year ROI
considerations seem appropriate.
There may be plenty of other ways to supply electricity to buildings, but obviously PV is a
technology on the rise. There can be many reasons why an architect/builder would opt for a
conventional building material other than cost, though; the most obvious are aesthetics and
durability. For this reason, BIPV, we believe, will have a rising share of the PV used in buildings,
but will never have 100 percent of that market.
While this issue is the part of the story about BIPV cost that leads to an obvious opportunity
for panel vendors involved in the BIPV market, we note that cost factors impacting BIPV are
quite complex and various. They are also different depending on whether one is talking about
conventional c-Si BIPV or the various thin-film BIPV products that are beginning to enter the
market. With all of this in mind, in Exhibit E-1 we summarize the cost advantages and
disadvantages of different PV technologies for BIPV product categories.
E.2 BIPV and Aesthetic Opportunities
It was aesthetics that drove the first developments in BIPV as a way to make building-
mounted PV systems look less like power plants. Large roof- or wall-mounted solar panels are
not generally considered aesthetically pleasing any more than satellite dishes are; at best
people get used to seeing these installations as they become more common. In some cases
conventional PV installations can even run afoul of local building ordinances.
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Exhibit E-1 Cost Advantages and Disadvantages of BIPV
Advantages Disadvantages
CRYSTALLINE SILICON:
Rigid BIPV High conversion efficiency Sensitivity to silicon market
Discrete cells make product layout easy
for specified tile dimensions Page | 3
Flexible BIPV Would presumably have high conversion Silicon cell rigidity and fragility
efficiency if it could be made Wafer thickness constrained by handling
No truly flexible solutions at this time
"Transparent" BIPV High conversion efficiency Difficult to automate customized
Ease of glazing silicon cells assembly processes
Easily customizable sizes and shapes
THIN-FILM/ORGANIC
PV:
Rigid BIPV Lower cost potential of TFPV vs. c-Si PV Lower conversion efficiency
Can cover larger portions of terraced tiles Unusual substrate shapes can be
problematic
Flexible BIPV Inherent flexibility of some TFPV and Lower conversion efficiency
OPV/DSC Encapsulation issues
Light weight
"Transparent" BIPV Automated factory production Difficult to make custom sizes and shapes
True transparency of some may avoid Lower conversion efficiency
spaces between cells
© 2011 NanoMarkets
E.2.1 Aesthetics and the New Market for BIPV
The conventional PV market is, in fact, all about costs. Panel and installation costs along with
electricity generation and incentives produce real numbers for hard calculations of cost and
payoff, and PV is usually an investment question.
The second-generation of BIPV products have been designed specifically for integration into
building surfaces, unlike prior Building-Attached PV (BAPV) and first-generation BIPV that
tended to be standard utility panels with custom mounting hardware. Second-generation BIPV
products are generally made to provide 10-14 percent PV efficiency, while also meeting all the
codes and standards of traditional high-end building products. These products are already
estimated to be 70-80 percent as efficient as BIPV can ever get based on champion laboratory
results and manufacturing experience, and so represent an excellent investment into long-
term energy generation capacity.
Such products are designed to be delivered through standard building industry supply chains
and installed by standard building industry professionals. These products will start "boot
strapping themselves" into the market as ease of install and attractive functionality trigger
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ever more demand. The comprehensive goal is that BIPV will be seen as part of the standard
portfolio of high-end "Green" building products used by architects and builders.
Precisely because it is a non-enthusiast market, aesthetic concerns are likely to be prominent
and, in our opinion, this fact gives BIPV a significant opportunity to capitalize on its ability to
Page | 4
masquerade as an attractive building material and not just an ugly panel that gets fixed to a
roof. As such, second-generation BIPV can compete effectively against conventional BAPV
products, but can also compete to some extent against (high-end) building materials.
E.2.2 Aesthetics, Architects and BIPV
Like anyone else involved in the construction industry value chain, architects spend much of
their time dealing with cost issues. However, architecture is in most cases not a business of
finding the lowest cost; architecture involves many aesthetic and stylistic concerns that are
considered more important than simply going for the lowest cost building. That is why using
an architect, rather than simply a builder/draftsman, is almost always a very expensive option.
In any case, it suggests that the aesthetics of BIPV might well be something that could appeal
to architects, although the degree to which factors other than cost matter, of course, is highly
dependent on the particular building, the particular architect, etc. Architects, we believe, can
help promote BIPV as aspects of "Green/LEED" building design.
As with the cost issues described above, there is a lot more to the aesthetics issue relating to
BIPV than is covered in these few paragraphs. Exhibit E-2 illustrates some of the aesthetics-
related advantages and disadvantages of crystalline silicon-based BIPV and thin-film and
organic-based BIPV for the different types of BIPV products.
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Exhibit E-2 Aesthetic Advantages and Disadvantages of BIPV
Advantages Disadvantages
CRYSTALLINE SILICON:
Rigid BIPV Cells fit well into tile-shaped Cell appearance can be considered
packages unattractive
Suitable for flush mounting Limited sizes and shapes of cells Page | 5
Cell appearance can be attractive Silver tabbing usually required
Flexible BIPV Would offer a classic PV Standard cells too rigid and fragile for flexible
appearance if it could be made BIPV
affordably in volume Ultra-thin silicon only shown in labs with no
commercial product plans known
"Transparent" BIPV Custom shapes can be handled Cell misalignment produces irregular
with attractive cell layouts reflections, and tabbing may look unattractive
Cell appearance can be attractive Even use of prism/mirrors limits off-axis
transparency
THIN-FILM/ORGANIC
PV:
Rigid BIPV Clean, uniform appearance More or larger panels required for same
Suitable for flush mounting power
Flexible BIPV Clean, uniform appearance Additional framing needed for some
Curved installations possible installations
Versatile for use on many surfaces Versatility can lead to some undesirable
installations
"Transparent" BIPV Clean, factory precision Very low efficiency limits economic appeal
appearance Custom/irregular panel shapes may have
Some may produce transparent unattractive patterns or be impossible
BIPV glass with no visible pattern
© 2011 NanoMarkets
E.3 Market Positioning and Distinguishing Features of BIPV
On the supply side of things, BIPV provides considerable new product opportunities for the
panel supplier or even the installer/systems integrator to exploit. This situation is positive
relative to the conventional PV market, where there is little difference between one panel and
the next, except in terms of panel size and cost; a situation that incidentally invites strong
branding efforts in the future.
By contrast, BIPV permits a wide variety of product variations in terms of both form and
quality and much of this report deals with how that fact is best exploited by BIPV providers to
make real money. With this in mind, NanoMarkets has defined three primary types of BIPV
product that we believe together represent the main product directions for BIPV: rigid
(opaque) products, flexible products, and transparent/semi-transparent products. Each class
has unique features and concerns in terms of costs. The different PV technologies also each
bring their own cost-related benefits and challenges to BIPV.
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E.3.1 Opportunities for PV Companies
First-generation BIPV: As we discuss in the main body of the report, while the medium-to-
long term potential for product range diversification is very high within the definition of BIPV,
it is important for the firm that enters this space to realize that we are only just entering the
BIPV era. Just a few years ago, BIPV meant little more than using completely conventional Page | 6
panels and hiding them with architectural features. This approach required some careful
roofing design, but this kind of first-generation BIPV really didn't manifest most of the benefits
that we see flowing from "real" second-generation BIPV.
Flush-mounted panels: Currently, a lot of what passes for BIPV are actually flush-mounted
panels and little more; again as we have noted, this type of system is a long way from the
exciting products that BIPV seems to promise. We believe that such flush-mounted PV panel
installations should be considered as BIPV—and consider them such in the report—if the
panels are designed specifically for that purpose. In this case, they approximate the aesthetics
expected from BIPV; they certainly provide a more attractive alternative than large rack-
mounted systems. They also provide some real market differentiating features for panel
suppliers. In particular, we note that these flush-mounted panels provide one of the most
accessible BIPV options, especially for small, budget-minded users like most residential owners,
and especially for retrofits.
Since PV is the most cost sensitive portion of BIPV, it makes sense to minimize the costs that
fall into the PV category and to allow the architectural cost category to "take up the slack".
This strategy is hard to implement when BIPV consists of flush-mounted but otherwise
conventional panels or laminates installed over existing conventional building materials; the
PV costs for such an installation are completely obvious because the PV system is installed
completely separate from the architectural components.
However, when fully integrated BIPV products come from a factory with the PV devices
already incorporated, or when the building material does not function well without the PV
devices or vice versa, the distinction between the architectural and building material costs of
a BIPV product and the PV costs is much fuzzier. BIPV suppliers can then more easily
maximize the perceived value of the architectural aspects of their BIPV products, leaving a
smaller portion of the BIPV costs to be assigned as PV system costs and increasing their
opportunity to improve profitability.
This approach is easiest to manage when the conventional building materials that BIPV is
designed to match or replace are high-end, high-cost ones. If the building material costs are
already comparable to or higher than the cost of PV by itself, there is much more ability to
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absorb a significant part of the PV cost into the cost of the building materials used or replaced.
This scenario already exists for some expensive building materials like certain architectural
glass and high-end roofing slate. BIPV's task is to position products as high-end through their
design—emulating high-end building materials—or by other marketing means.
Page | 7
Eventually the cost of the PV within BIPV products and systems should be low enough in
proportion to high-end building materials that it will be (almost) fully absorbable into the cost
of those materials. At the very least, the premium commanded for PV should decline to a
point where BIPV can be marketed as just another high-end building material in some sense.
Declining PV prices will also eventually allow significant portions of PV cost to be absorbed by
mid-range and lower-end building materials, enhancing BIPV's market position in those
categories.
Newer BIPV products: One of the most attractive newer approaches to BIPV is making BIPV
tiles that interlace with conventional high-end roofing tiles. This approach has been used for a
few years with crystalline silicon PV and only to a small extent with thin-film PV. But now
there is increasing development of interlacing products with slightly different approaches.
New CIGS-based flexible roofing products like Dow Chemical's shingle product make
additional markets more accessible to PV and BIPV firms.
There are also new approaches to making BIPV glass more attractive. Thin-film PV-based BIPV
glass is one approach; these panels replace the squareish silicon cell-space pattern with
tighter, more precise pinstripe or other patterns and eliminate the tabbing that spans the
spaces between cells. Uniform thin-film semi-transparent and opaque panels also exist for
sidewall spandrels, shade screens, and canopies.
Crystalline silicon still provides the highest PV conversion efficiency, and with clever
understanding of optics, mechanics, and industrial engineering can be incorporated into new
second-generation BIPV products. Pythagoras Solar is noteworthy for using arrays of prisms to
hide crystalline-silicon cells on their sides in double-pane Insulated Glass Units (IGU) that
appear almost completely transparent when looking straight through them. The company
uses a fabless/foundry manufacturing model to be able to rapidly scale capacity with demand.
Opportunities for Crystalline Silicon PV suppliers: Crystalline silicon (c-Si) still maintains the
fundamental advantage of providing the highest affordable efficiency among BIPV absorber
materials. There are many cost-effective specialty BIPV modules that can be made using c-Si
cells.
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There are also other opportunities for crystalline silicon PV suppliers to profit from the BIPV
markets, but they mainly deal with ways of splitting the cost of the PV with the cost of the
building materials with which it is integrated. To best do this, we believe, the underlying
opportunity is to position the products as high-end "smart" building materials, with the PV
costs being absorbed in the premium that customers are willing to pay for high-end building Page | 8
materials. This kind of BIPV product, for example, can be made to emulate roofing slate in
terms of dimensions, shape, texture, and color.
Opportunities for Thin-Film PV Suppliers: While many BIPV tile products are based on
crystalline silicon PV, TFPV can offer better coverage of unusually shaped tiles as well as
conformity to tiles that aren't flat. This market is fairly wide open to TFPV suppliers and
obviously lends itself to builders, architects and building owners who want their property to
have a more valuable "Green/LEED" look.
As the highest-performing thin-film PV technology, there are several opportunities available
specifically for CIGS PV. The semitransparent BIPV market is dominated by crystalline silicon
PV. CIGS-based BIPV glass has the opportunity to offer the aesthetics of thin-film with
performance closer to that of crystalline silicon.
Despite exits from the BIPV market by Ascent Solar and SRS Energy in the last 12 months (see
section E.4, below), other CIGS and a-Si thin-film BIPV companies continue to develop
products and distribution channels. NanoMarkets sees both Ascent Solar and SRS Energy as
having burdens of manufacturing cost-structures relatively higher than their comparable thin-
film counterparts. In particular, Dow Solar, Global Solar, Soltecture (formerly Sulfurcell), and
Odersun all have second-generation BIPV products designed using CIGS, and all targeting five-
ten year payback times for building owners.
Among flexible BIPV laminate producers there is also an opportunity to boost sales by selling
laminates directly to end users. Such direct sales can appeal to PV enthusiasts with limited
budgets; those to whom the possession and use of a PV system is more important than
ensuring that it is aesthetically installed.
OPV, DSC and transparency: There is also, we believe, a significant opportunity specifically for
organic and dye-sensitized PV—and probably eventually for inorganic thin-film PV as well—for
producing truly transparent BIPV glass. The opaque cells that are integral to semitransparent
BIPV glass have been a deal breaker for the use of BIPV glass in applications where visibility is
important, such as in most windows. Truly transparent BIPV glass—with cells that are tinted
but not opaque—would open these applications to the possibility of BIPV glass, especially if
the PV layer can be made uniformly tinted without spaces or any opaque traces. OPV and DSC
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are the closest technologies to achieving this goal, but are still several years away from
starting development of transparent BIPV, instead focusing on flexible BIPV.
In NanoMarket's prior BIPV report, we had asserted that crystalline silicon wouldn't be able to
make BIPV glass truly transparent within the timeframe covered by the report. However, in the
Page | 9
last 12 months, Pythagoras Solar has successfully released its IGU product and scored a
showcase installation in the south wall of the 56th floor of the Willis Tower in Chicago (see
section E.4, below). The Pythagoras IGU looks like transparent glass with fixed internal
louvers, and can be designed and mass-produced in custom layouts with the center of the
window fully transparent. Since a fully populated Pythagoras IGU is effectively 14 percent
efficient, leaving the center of the window completely open still provides an average effective
7 percent BIPV module.
E.3.2 Opportunities for Architects, Builders, and Roofers
Perception of Green/LEED buildings has changed in the market over the last decade. Initially
reserved for "enthusiasts" and so inherently a niche market, Green/LEED building products
have been proven to save significant operating costs over the lifetime of a building and so can
now be sold to non-enthusiasts just on the merits of costs and direct benefits.
Green/LEED approaches to building construction often show the most benefit with new
construction, where the frame and overall layout of the building can be designed to be most
in harmony with the local environment, including aspects such as shade structures, rainwater
recycling, solar thermal hot-water, and use of recycled materials. Recent reports by people
tracking building construction trends indicate that the overall Green/LEED building market
grew ~50 percent over the last two years, and could grow another 100 percent over the next
five years; up to 25 percent of all new construction activity last year fell into this category.
Conventionally, the BIPV market is classified as a sub-set of the PV market, which in turn is
considered to be one part of the overall renewable-energy or "Green" market. However, BIPV
may also be considered as somewhat independent of other energy markets because other
renewable energy products—except for solar thermal—cannot be attractively and affordably
integrated into a building. From this other perspective, BIPV fundamentally competes with
other high-end building materials for the same positions in the skins of structures.
As a result, the BIPV market has very different dynamics compared to the mainstream/utility
PV market and the rest of the renewable-energy market overall. BIPV also has different
metrics, needs to meet different codes, and will grow at different rates. For all of these
reasons, BIPV is a real, though certainly small, independent market today. The market will
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soon explode, however, when second-generation products gain traction as high-end elements
within the portfolio of offerings available from architects, builders, and roofers.
NanoMarkets sees the need for new codes to reduce BIPV electrical costs, since the codes of
buildings aren't set up for the 1000-V electrical potentials that can be generated by BIPV.
Page | 10
Codes exist to bolt conduit to an existing building, but the best results will always come from a
new building designed for BIPV sidewall electrical integration. Micro-inverters could be used
to avoid this issue, but only with more cost and reliability issues.
Architects: For BIPV to be incorporated into new building designs by architects, the costs
must be comparable to current building cladding materials. "Smart-Glass" today generally
costs $50-100/sq.ft., while passive glass for high-end commercial buildings may cost $5-
20/sq.ft. NanoMarkets sees products from many different BIPV suppliers soon hitting the
same price range as Smart-Glass, which should trigger a tipping point in demand and create
real money-making opportunities. With a five-to-seven year ROI time for many BIPV products
even without government incentives, and with a two-three year ROI time for the most
attractive products, BIPV should soon become ubiquitous.
Architects are generally very interested in new building products that may allow them to
differentiate themselves amongst their peers, and so tend to pull new products into the
market. However, the first showcase installation for any given product needs to be proven for
at least a year before it will generally be accepted by the mainstream. If a product has been
available for more than a year and is warrantied, then most architects will consider it as
viable—provided that it has been proven to meet all applicable building code standards.
Builders: General contractors with responsibility to complete projects on time and on budget
must be naturally conservative and tend to push-back against new products unless they are
positioned as obvious replacements for existing and trusted products. The many regional
codes to which all building cladding materials must conform are the minimum.
Most importantly, any viable BIPV product must be seen as a real "drop-in" replacement,
where the complete BIPV module should ideally be able to be installed by standard manual
laborers with minimal special training. For example, "glaziers" put glass in a building and don't
know anything about plugging a window into anything. A lot of education and training is still
needed so that most BIPV can be installed by standard building-trades people.
Roofers: Since most roofs need to be replaced in 10-20 years, the roofing industry has been
established to handle both new construction and retrofits. With retrofit business favored in
the short-term due to malaise in new construction markets, roofers have been partnering
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with BIPV suppliers to create "turn-key" BIPV systems for specific regional sub-markets. Such
"BIPV-in-a-Box" packages include 3-5 kW of panels, all electronics for grid-connection, and any
mounting hardware needed for installation on one roof. A preventative maintenance service
plan may be included. NanoMarkets sees BIPV-in-a-Box as one of the fastest ways to lower
barriers to entry for small-scale installation. Page | 11
In the U.S., a "Roof-Integrated Solar Energy" (RISE) national roof contractor's association has
been established to offer a test to become a certified roofer for BIPV. Since BIPV includes both
"BI" and "PV" sets of functionalities, this program is a great way for traditional "BI" trades-
people to gain expertise in the "PV" side of things. Some people have also begun to use the
phrase Roof-Integrated Photovoltaic (RIPV) for the sub-set of BIPV products designed
specifically for rooftops.
E.3.3 Opportunities for Distribution and Retail
The most important BIPV-related opportunity for building materials suppliers is to form
partnerships with the PV firms to develop and produce fully-integrated BIPV products. Without
such partnerships, it is unlikely that most building products firms would have all the necessary
expertise to get into the BIPV market themselves. Indeed, they might well find themselves in a
position where BIPV is in direct competition with what they offer.
Through such partnerships, building materials firms can expand their product offerings to
include higher-value BIPV products that can be more profitable than the conventional building
materials. NanoMarkets expects "Green/LEED" building products to significantly outperform
other high-end building products for the near future. Distributors and retailers who establish
reputations for providing quality and reliable BIPV products should outperform their
competitors.
Service and warranties for both BI and PV sets of functionalities are needed by customers, and
the best second-generation BIPV product providers take on this responsibility. In this
preferred scenario, the rest of the distribution chain merely passes down the manufacturer's
warranties to the contractor responsible for the physical installation.
E.4 Firms to Watch
E.4.1 Ascent Solar Technologies (NASDAQ: ASTI)
Ascent Solar has demonstrated a laminate product called WaveSol Light. This product is
claimed to be 8-9 percent efficient, and the company established a second-generation flexible
BIPV laminate CIGS product with Underwriters Laboratory (UL) certification.
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Summary of BIPV Markets
25,000
20,000
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$ Millions
15,000
10,000 Glass
Flexible BIPV products
5,000
Tiles and floating panels
0
© NanoMarkets, LC
Total BIPV Markets--2011-2018
25,000
20,000
15,000
$ Millions
10,000
5,000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
© NanoMarkets, LC
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Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background of this Report
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) is a new and dynamic market with complex sub-
markets and very different market entities pulling diverse BIPV technologies into use. As an Page | 23
extension of the global photovoltaics market, both large established PV module suppliers as
well as small niche architectural firms are trying to push BIPV into the market. Historically, the
volumes sold of BIPV products—relative to PV products as a whole—so far have been low due
to both a lack of demand and a lack of dedicated products for the building industry. However,
NanoMarkets believes that the demand for BIPV would have been greater had dedicated
products been more widely available.
As additional dedicated BIPV products are released to the market, we think that the key
decision makers are discovering new ways to add value to buildings. Ultimately, for BIPV to
yield solid business opportunities, architects, builders, and roofers all must work with proven
solutions, and proven BIPV technologies to provide another way to win new customers/clients.
Grid-connected BIPV is not just for "enthusiast" or "Green" people anymore, and "bankable"
BIPV can now provide an attractive return-on-investment time for many buildings in many
locations. Depending upon incentives and lease-back financing schemes, BIPV can potentially
reduce the total costs of constructing homes and commercial buildings, and may also add
significant value to building retrofits.
The combination of dedicated and bankable BIPV products with proper financing can open up
new addressable markets. From the supply perspective, BIPV offers new revenue-streams for
PV panel suppliers and new differentiation in the market-space for architects, builders, and
roofers.
1.1.1 BIPV Market Drivers
Aesthetics: The first generation of BIPV systems, often referred to as Building-Attached
Photovoltaics (BAPV), were primarily architectural in nature. They consisted of attempts to
make the PV panels more unobtrusive by choosing thinner panels and installing them parallel
to the roof surface or even hidden on a flat roof. In addition to helping PV appeal to a broader
audience, the first generation of BIPV also was intended to meet the requirements of certain
local governments, which either mandated BIPV or required that PV panels be hidden from
view despite a lack of dedicated products designed to achieve these requirements.
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These first-generation BIPV systems are not our primary concern in this report. Rather, we are
more interested in BIPV products as opposed to BIPV design. The BIPV products we have in
mind here are those that integrate smoothly with building surfaces. At a minimum, they are
laminated on roofing or wall materials; more specialized products also serve as roofing or
cladding themselves or even as skylights or other building features. Dedicated BIPV products, Page | 24
properly installed, simply look better to most observers than BAPV, and so provide a lasting
value.
Costs: Inevitably, the cost of a BIPV system will be higher than a standard PV panel of a
similar performance. Due to the dedicated design of second-generation BIPV systems and the
distinctly different sub-markets for roofs, windows, and sidewalls in buildings, any given BIPV
product will see lower volumes compared to mainstream "utility panels" and will thus not
enjoy the same economies of scale. However, with demand expected to steadily increase over
the next eight years, NanoMarkets expects that BIPV products can be made on dedicated
production lines and so will see steady reductions in manufacturing costs.
The ultimate goal for BIPV systems is that they can lower the total costs of construction of a
BIPV-enabled building, since the cost of using BIPV materials will be lower than using
conventional building materials in conjunction with conventional PV systems. However, for the
BIPV market to establish itself, in the next few years we are going to need to see proof that
this kind of economics can be established for BIPV. And this strategy is where the
opportunities lie. If costs for BIPV begin to reach the point where BIPV products can be
positioned as part of a standard portfolio of high-end building materials, then the demand is
expected to explode.
Since cost remains a significant part of the demand equation, the dynamics of pricing must be
considered. NanoMarkets considers that BIPV suppliers will target certain price-points in
reference to existing high-end building materials and options. In such a scenario, the demand
is not particularly "elastic" with price, but instead should spike up once threshold levels are
achieved.
1.1.2 Three Approaches to Building Integration: Rigid, Flexible, Transparent
From a product perspective, NanoMarkets believes that the BIPV market fits best into three
broad categories based on the function that the BIPV products serve in the building envelope.
These categories are (1) rigid BIPV tiles and panels, (2) flexible BIPV products and laminates,
and (3) transparent or semi-transparent BIPV glass products. Each of these product categories
are at a different level of technological maturity and also have significantly different
addressable markets.
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Rigid products: Rigid BIPV products generally rely upon crystalline silicon (c-Si) or multi-
crystalline silicon (mc-Si) wafers as the cells from which to build customized building cladding
structures. The silicon wafers required may be obtained from any supplier, and the module
manufacturing required may not be significantly different from that needed to create
conventional PV panels, which are overwhelmingly rigid. Page | 25
However, the aesthetic and functional and regulatory requirements of BIPV create new
opportunities for product differentiation compared to mainstream PV panels. Consequently,
NanoMarkets believes that there are distinct opportunities in this space that BIPV can tap into
in a manner not available to conventional PV panels.
Rigid BIPV products that are available or planned include tiles that are designed to interlace
with conventional roofing tiles or cladding materials; larger tiles that serve as entire roof
portions or wall portions themselves; and thin, flush-mounted panels that overlay
conventional roofing or siding but are specifically designed for flush mounting on buildings.
Flexible products: Flexible PV laminates are a newer direction for BIPV than the rigid systems
described above. Besides flexible PV laminates, which are designed to be glued onto existing
building materials such as metal roofing, there are also products like flexible shingles that
interlace with conventional asphalt shingles. Also coming soon are flexible building materials
with PV cells built or deposited directly onto them. These products aim to integrate the PV
panels more completely with building materials than today's laminates, which are applied in a
separate installation.
The flexible product segment of the BIPV market clearly involves novel products and as such
represents a riskier business proposition than the rigid BIPV product segment described
above. The flexible alternatives are also reliant on using newer materials platforms, primarily
thin-film and organic PV, since these materials are flexible and conventional c-Si PV is not. It is
still an open question as to which of the several thin-film/organic approaches to PV is best
suited to flexible PV.
Transparent: BIPV glass products can generally be considered as a sub-class of "Smart
Windows," and specifically are similar to electrochromic windows in that active electronics are
involved in both functional types. In many cases, transparent BIPV based on thin-film PV
technology is a way of using glazing to make PV cells and modules into decorative building
features. Several companies have announced plans to integrate semi-transparent thin-film
absorber materials with transparent conductors to compete directly with electrochromic glass
windows. Both amorphous-silicon and CIGS thin-films have been explored as the PV absorber
material.
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The initial markets for BIPV glass are in skylights, facades, curtain walls, and shade structures
such as canopies, and BIPV glass can often be easily built to custom dimensions and shapes,
either by adjusting the number and spacing of crystalline silicon cells or by cutting thin-film PV
panels to size. The possibility of windows that are also PV panels should start being realized,
but the manufacturing platforms necessary to produce glass of this kind in high volumes still Page | 26
seems quite far off. Initial BIPV glass windows will be created on pilot lines with limited yields
and profitability.
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
NanoMarkets has been covering the BIPV space now for more than four years and the PV
space for a few years longer. It has watched the BIPV sector emerge as one of the biggest
hopes for turning PV into a substantial industry that might eventually be self-sustaining
without government subsidies.
With this history in mind, the primary purpose of this report is to examine and quantify the
revenue-generating opportunities for BIPV over the next eight years. The focus is primarily on
how BIPV and the different participants in the market can design and deploy products
specifically intended for integration into buildings. We perform this analysis for each of the
product classes mentioned above considering the various addressable markets for BIPV:
residential and commercial/industrial and new construction and retrofits. We also consider
the sizes of the various BIPV markets, the roles and strategies of important firms in the
industry, and the various PV technologies as they relate to BIPV.
In this report, we take the approach that BIPV products include those PV panels specifically
designed for mounting on (or in) buildings. As we note above there are three kinds of BIPV
products that fit that definition and we discuss all of these in depth in the main body of this
report.
It is important to note that this report does not focus upon design/architectural strategies to
attach conventional PV technology onto buildings (BAPV), for we consider BAPV as part of the
mainstream PV market. Nor does this report focus upon design/architectural strategies to
integrate conventional PV technology into buildings, though we realize that such work
constituted the first attempts to create BIPV, and so we acknowledge these projects as "first-
generation" BIPV. NanoMarkets considers that first-generation BIPV approaches are no
longer competitive with the advent of "second-generation" BIPV technologies that have been
created specifically to serve builders.
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This report is international in scope. The forecasts are worldwide forecasts and we have not
been geographically selective in the firms that we have covered in this report or interviewed
in order to collect information. That is not to say that the markets and firms are
geographically homogeneous; in fact, the markets are concentrated in certain geographic
areas and the firms are concentrated around these markets. Largely, the geographical bias of Page | 27
BIPV—and hence of this report—is determined by the size of the PV market as a whole in
certain countries and regions.
1.3 Methodology of this Report
The information for this work is derived from a variety of sources, but principally comes from
primary sources including NanoMarkets' ongoing interview program of business development
managers and technologists involved with photovoltaics of all kinds. We also drew on an
extensive search of the technical literature, relevant company Web sites, trade journals,
government resources, and various collateral items from trade shows and conferences.
Some of the historical and background information has also been taken from our 2010 BIPV
report and, in addition, we have built on the research we conducted for other recent
photovoltaics-related reports including "Thin-Film Photovoltaics Materials Markets—2011 and
Beyond" from December 2010 and "Dye Sensitized Cells: Materials, Applications and
Opportunities: 2011" from April 2011 and "Materials, Applications and Opportunities within
Organic Photovoltaics: 2011" also from April 2011. We have also incorporated analysis from
our "Next-Generation Smart Windows: Materials and Markets: 2011" report. Where
information has been used from an earlier report, it has been reinvestigated, reanalyzed, and
reconsidered in light of current developments and updated accordingly.
The forecasting approach taken in this report is explained in more detail in Chapter Four, but
the basic approach taken here is to identify and quantify the underlying needs and markets
that are served by BIPV products; consider the specifics of the applications and the types of
products available or under development; and assess the competitive landscape to determine
the suitability and likely volume of each of the BIPV types over the next eight years. The
stated plans of the key firms are of course of special interest, although NanoMarkets critically
considers these claims in light of all available data.
1.4 Plan of this Report
In Chapter Two, we look into recent commercial developments of second-generation BIPV
products designed specifically for integration into buildings, including the major sub-markets
of rigid, flexible, and transparent products. We also analyze the BIPV product mix in terms of
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underlying PV technology: crystalline and multi-crystalline silicon wafers, amorphous-silicon
thin-film, CIGS, and DSC and organics.
In Chapter Three we explore the demand side by analyzing the overall dynamics of global
building markets and reviewing the differing expectations of architects, builders, and roofers.
Page | 28
This section includes a discussion of the cost of BIPV relative to that of conventional building
materials plus conventional PV panels for roofs, walls, and windows.
Finally, Chapter Four contains our eight-year forecasts of the markets for BIPV in each of the
categories of rigid, flexible, and transparent products.
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