Professor Andreas Schleicher is Deputy Director for Education and Skills, and Special Advisor on Education Policy to the OECD’s Secretary-General. In July 2013 he provided insight into how Australia could lift its education performance to rank among the top 5 internationally by 2025.
17. 2626ANZOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher The net public return on investment for a man in tertiary
education is over USD 100 000.
Net private and public returns associated with a man attaining tertiary education (2009)
0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000
United States
Ireland
Czech Republic
Poland
Slovenia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Austria
United Kingdom
Canada
Finland
EU21 average
France
Portugal
OECD average
Korea
Italy
Australia
Israel
Netherlands
Japan
Estonia
Germany
Spain
Belgium
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
Greece
New Zealand
Turkey
Equivalent USD
Private net returns Public net returns
Chart A7.1
19. 4141ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
1998PISA countries in 20002001200320062009
77%81%83%85%86%Coverage of world economy 87%
PISA 2009 in brief
Over half a million students…
representing 28 million 15-year-olds in 74* countries/economies
… took an internationally agreed 2-hour test…
Goes beyond testing whether students can
reproduce what they were taught…
… to assess students’ capacity to extrapolate from what they
know and creatively apply their knowledge in novel situations
… and responded to questions on…
their personal background, their schools
and their engagement with learning and school
Parents, principals and system leaders provided data on…
school policies, practices, resources and institutional factors
that help explain performance differences .
* Data for Costa Rica, Georgia, India, Malaysia, Malta, Mauritius, Venezuela and Vietnam will be published in December 2011
20. 4242
PISA
OECDProgrammefor
InternationalStudentAssessment
Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
13October2011 How the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
40
45
50
55
60
65
1960 1970 1980 1990 2002
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interactive
(Levy and Murnane)
Meantaskinputaspercentilesofthe1960taskdistribution
The dilemma for education and training:
The skills that are easiest to teach and test are
also the ones that are easiest to digitise,
automate and outsource
23. 4646ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher Average performance
of 15-year-olds in
reading – extrapolate
and apply
High reading performance
Low reading performance
… 17 countries perform below this line
Shanghai-China
Korea
Finland
Hong Kong-China
Singapore
Canada
New Zealand
Japan
Australia
NetherlandsBelgium
Norway , EstoniaSwitzerlandPoland,
IcelandUnited States LiechtensteinSwedenGermany,
IrelandFrance, Chinese Taipei
DenmarkUnited KingdomHungary,
Portugal
Macao-China Italy
Latvia
Slovenia Greece
Spain
Czech RepublicSlovak Republic, Croatia
IsraelLuxembourg,
Austria Lithuania
Turkey
Dubai (UAE) Russian Federation
Chile
Serbia440.000
460.000
480.000
500.000
520.000
540.000
25354555
24. 4848ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher Average performance
of 15-year-olds in
science – extrapolate
and apply
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-
economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable
distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
25. 4949ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-
economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable
distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Czech Rep
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
US
2009
1525354555
2009
26. 5050ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-
economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable
distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Czech Rep
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
US
2009
28. 5252
London,10.September2012
AndreasSchleicher
EducationataGlance2012
Contribution of various factors
to the change in the salary cost of teacher per
student at the lower secondary level (2000, 2010)
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Austria
Denmark
Finland
Australia
Italy
Spain
Japan
Portugal
UnitedStates
Ireland
France
Iceland
Korea
Hungary
CzechRepublic
Mexico
Contribution of teachers' salary
Contribution of instruction time
Contribution of teaching time
Contribution of estimated class size
Change in salary cost between 2000 and 2010
In equivalent USD using PPPs
29. 5656ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
In only 6 countries were relative salaries for teachers
higher than those of comparably educated workers
Ratio of teachers' salary to earnings for full-time, full-year workers with tertiary education aged
25-64 (2011 or latest available year)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Spain
Korea
Luxembourg
Portugal
NewZealand
Canada
Germany
Finland
Israel
England
Australia
Denmark
Belgium(Fl.)
OECDaverage
EU21average
Netherlands
Belgium(Fr.)
Ireland
Sweden
Slovenia
France
Scotland
Poland
Chile
Norway
UnitedStates
Estonia
Austria
Italy
Hungary
CzechRepublic
Iceland
SlovakRepublic
Ratio
Chart D3.1-2
But teacher salaries in the EU rose by
20% between 2000 and 2011 (in contrast
in the US they remained stable)
EU/U
S
30. 5858ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-
economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable
distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Czech Rep
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
US
2009
31. 5959ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-
economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable
distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Czech Rep
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
US
2000
32. 6060ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-
economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable
distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Czech Rep
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
US
2000
34. 6363ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
-1 0 1 2
Score
School performance and socio-economic background
AustraliaStudentperformance
AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic backgroundDisadvantage
School performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools
Student performance and schools’ socio-economic background
Private school
Public school in rural area
Public school in urban area
38. 7777ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
39. 7878ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
A commitment to education and the belief
that competencies can be learned and
therefore all children can achieve
Universal educational standards and
personalisation as the approach to
heterogeneity in the student body…
… as opposed to a belief that students have
different destinations to be met with different
expectations, and selection/stratification as
the approach to heterogeneity
Clear articulation who is responsible for
ensuring student success and to whom
40. 7979ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
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Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-
economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable
distribution of learning
opportunities
High reading performance
Low reading performance
2009
Early selection and
institutional differentiation
High degree of stratification
Low degree of stratification
41. 8080ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
Clear ambitious goals that are shared across
the system and aligned with high stakes
gateways and instructional systems
Well established delivery chain through which
curricular goals translate into instructional
systems, instructional practices and student
learning (intended, implemented and achieved)
High level of metacognitive content of
instruction
42. 8181ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
Capacity at the point of delivery
Attracting, developing and retaining high quality
teachers and school leaders and a work
organisation in which they can use their
potential
Instructional leadership and human resource
management in schools
Keeping teaching an attractive profession
System-wide career development
43. 8282ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Teacher in-service development
No matter how good the pre-service education for teachers is
… it cannot prepare teachers for rapidly changing challenges throughout their
careers
High-performing systems rely on ongoing professional to…
… update individuals’ knowledge of a subject in light of recent advances
… update skills and approaches in light of new teaching techniques, new
circumstances, and new research
… enable teachers to apply changes made to curricula or teaching practice
… enable schools to develop and apply new strategies concerning the curriculum
and teaching practice
… exchange information and expertise among teachers and others
… help weaker teachers become more effective .
Effective professional development is on-going…
… includes training, practice and feedback, and adequate time and follow-up
support
FIN,
46. 8686ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
Incentives, accountability, knowledge management
Aligned incentive structures
For students
How gateways affect the strength, direction, clarity and nature of
the incentives operating on students at each stage of their education
Degree to which students have incentives to take tough courses and
study hard
Opportunity costs for staying in school and performing well
For teachers
Make innovations in pedagogy and/or organisation
Improve their own performance
and the performance of their colleagues
Pursue professional development opportunities
that lead to stronger pedagogical practices
A balance between vertical and lateral accountability
Effective instruments to manage and share knowledge and
spread innovation – communication within the system and
with stakeholders around it
A capable centre with authority and legitimacy to act
47. 8989ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Schools with less autonomy
Schools with more autonomy
480
490
500
Systems with more
accountability Systems with less
accountability
495
School autonomy in resource
allocation
System’s accountability arrangements
PISA score in reading
School autonomy, accountability
and student performance
Impact of school autonomy on performance in systems with and without
accountability arrangements
49. 9292ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
Investing resources where they can make
most of a difference
Alignment of resources with key challenges (e.g.
attracting the most talented teachers to the
most challenging classrooms)
Effective spending choices that prioritise high
quality teachers over smaller classes
50. 9393ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
A learning system
An outward orientation to keep the system
learning, technology, international benchmarks
as the ‘eyes’ and ‘ears’ of the system
Recognising challenges and potential future
threats to current success, learning from them,
designing responses and implementing these
51. 9494ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
Coherence of policies and practices
Alignment of policies
across all aspects of the system
Coherence of policies
over sustained periods of time
Consistency of implementation
Fidelity of implementation
(without excessive control)
52. 9595ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Low impact on outcomes
High impact on outcomes
Low feasibility High feasibility
Money pits
Must haves
Low hanging fruits
Quick wins
Commitment to universal
achievement
Gateways, instructiona
l systems
Capacity
at point of delivery
Incentive structures
and accountability
Resources
where they yield most
A learning system
Coherence
53. 9696ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Average school systems High performers in PISA
Some students learn
at high levels
All students learn
at high levels
Uniformity Embracing diversity
Curriculum-centred Learner-centred
Learning a place Learning an activity
Low status of the
teaching profession
Countries attract and develop
high quality teachers
Prescription Informed profession
54. 9797ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Some students learn at high levels All students need to learn at high levels
Student inclusion
Routine cognitive skills, rote learning Learning to learn, complex ways of
thinking, ways of working
Curriculum, instruction and assessment
Few years more than secondary High-level professional knowledge workers
Teacher quality
‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegial
Work organisation
Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholders
Accountability
Education reform trajectories
The old bureaucratic system The modern enabling system
55. 9898ANZSOG2013Strongperformersandsuccessfulreformers
AndreasSchleicher
Thank you !
Find out more about PISA at…
OECD www.pisa.oecd.org
– All national and international publications
– The complete micro-level database
U.S. White House www.data.gov
Email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org
… and remember:
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
Hinweis der Redaktion
You can see a similar relationship between skills and social outcomes. If you lack foundation skills, you are more likely to be in poor health, you are less likely to volunteer, you will have less of an understanding of political issues facing your country.You are also less likely to trust institution and people and constantly think that others are taking advantage of you. You may ask why trust is so important but the bottom line is that there is no functioning democracy without trust in institutions and there is no functioning business relationship without trust in your partners and the rule of law. Afghanistan is an example for what financial capital can achieve in a country without a human capital base. You will also be less likely to reciprocate.Finally, those with poor skills show also low levels of political efficacy, that is, they tend to believe that politicians do what they want and that they themselves have no influence.
What our data also show that skill gaps have a price, certainly for individuals.
We started to develop PISA in 1998 with 28 OECD countries, but since then country participation has grown and our latest PISA assessment covers 74 education systems that make up 86% of the world economy. Coverage in China and India is still patchy though, in China we have now covered 12 provinces and in India we are working in two states only.One aspect that makes PISA stand apart from traditional school tests is that PISA puts less emphasis on whether students can reproduce what they were taught, but focuses on their capacity to extrapolate from what they know and creatively apply what they know in novel situations. Some people complain that PISA is unfair, because it confronts students with tasks they have not dealt with before, but if you take that line, then you should consider life unfair, because in this fast-changing world, that is precisely what will expect students later in life. You will see that in the callout box.Students also provided data on their socio-economic context, their schools and their attitudes and engagement with school and learning.In addition, PISA collected data from parents, principals and system leaders to yield insights on school policies, practices, resources and institutional factors that help explain performance differences.
It is important that we look at skill utilisation in a dynamic framework. The kind of skills that are needed for success are rapidly evolving. As an example, this chart shows how the composition of the US work force has changed between 1970 and 2000. Work involving routine manual input, the jobs of the typical factory worker, was down significantly, that is the result of automation and outsourcing. Non-routine manual work, things we do with our hands, but in ways that are not so easily put into formal algorithms, was down too, albeit with much less change over recent years – and that is easy to understand because you cannot easily computerise the bus driver or outsource your hairdresser. All that is not surprising, but here is where the interesting story begins: Among the skill categories that you see here, routine cognitive input, that is cognitive work that you can easily put into the form of a script saw the sharpest decline in demand over the last couple of decades. So schools are now challenged on where they have traditionally put much of their focus, and what we tend value in multiple choice tests.The point is, that the skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the skills that are easiest to digitise, automatise and offshore. Where are the winners in this process? These are those who engage in expert thinking, up 8% - and complex communication, up almost 14%. This chart is just translating into numbers what I have said before.
Let me conclude this introduction with a couple of factors that were key to the success of PISAAt the heart of PISA is not a bureaucracy but the largest international network of educators and researchers in which Japan is an active player. These experts develop and validate the assessment material and methodologies, guided by governments on the basis of shared policy interests.Whenever you engage in cross-national collaboration, you will run into the question of whether measures and policy lessons travels well across cultural and national contexts. That is an area where PISA has made unprecedented progress.Third, in the field of education, nobody really knows how learning occurs in the classroom, but everybody has a view on this. So in PISA, we approached the issues from many perspectives, collecting data from students, parents, school principals, experts and system leaders and then through triangulation tried to get to the bottom to the issues. Finally, PISA employs a range of methods to ensure adequate measurement at different grain size to serve different decision-making needs.
With that introduction, let us turn to the results. The firstthingyou can do is to see how countries line up with regard to the competencies of their 15-year-olds.
The red dot indicates classroom spending per student, relative to the spending capacity of countries, the higher the dot, the more of its GDP a country invests. High salaries are an obvious cost driver. You see Korea paying their teachers very well, the green bar goes up a lot. Korea also has long school days, another cost driver, marked here by the white bar going up. Last but not least, Korea provides their teachers with lots of time for other things than teaching such as teacher collaboration and professional development, which costs money as well. So how does Korea finances all of this? They do this with large classes, the blue bar pulls costs down. If you go to the next country on the list, Luxembourg, you see that the red dot is about where it is for Korea, so Luxembourg spends roughly the same per student as Korea. But parents and teachers in Luxembourg mainly care about small classes, so policy makers have invested mainly into reducing class size, you see the blue bar as the main cost driver. But even Luxembourg can only spend its money once, and the result is that school days are short, teacher salaries are average at best and teachers have little time for anything else than teaching. Finland and the US are a similar contrast.Countries make quite different spending choices. But when you look at this these data long enough, you see that many of the high performing education systems tend to prioritise the quality of teachers over the size of classes.
In my view, one of the most important improvements in Japan has been the significant rise in the performance of Japanese students on open-ended tasks, the kind of tasks that require students to create an answer, rather than to just reproduce an answer from a multiple-choice task. In other words, Japan is advancing fastest on the kind of ‘new skills’ that I spoke about at the beginning.
Figure II.5.1
The yellow bar on this chart shows you the performance variability among schools. The larger the bar, the more school quality varies. The orange bar tells you about performance variation within schools.What the yellow bar tells you is that the quality of schools differs greatly in countries such as Italy, Turkey, Israel or Germany, while in Finland the yellow bar is very short, virtually every school performs at high levels. Now you might say Finland is a special case because it is not so heterogeneous, but then take Shanghai, a socio-economically every heterogeneous province and you see also here a fairly consistent high level of performance among schools. That has not come about by chance, but is the result of a concerted effort to convert “weaker schools” into stronger schools. If you are a successful school principal in a high performing school in Shanghai, you will get a salary raise, but they then put you in a disadvantaged school to create another success. And you will not be alone but you can take part of your teachers with you. Listen to how the Director of the Education Bureau in Pudong explains that success.
Whether and how long students are enrolled in pre-primary education is also an important resource consideration. Many of the inequalities that exist within school systems are already present once students enter formal schooling and persist as students’ progress through school. Earlier entrance into the school system may reduce these inequities. On average across OECD countries, 72% of today’s 15-year-old students reported that they had attended pre-primary education for more than one year. Attendance in more than one year of pre-primary education was practically universal in Japan (97%), and in the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, Iceland and France, over 90% of 15-year-old students reported that they had attended pre-primary school for more than one year. More than 90% of students in 27 OECD countries had attended pre-primary school for at least some time, and 98% or more of students in Japan (99%), Hungary, France and the United States reported having done so. Pre-primary education is rare in Turkey, where less than 30% of 15-year-olds had attended pre-primary school for at least a year. More than one year of pre-primary education is uncommon in Chile, Ireland, Canada and Poland, where less than 50% of students attended pre-primary school for that length of time (Table IV.3.18).PISA 2009 results show that, in general, students who had attended pre-primary education perform better in reading at the age of 15 than students who had not (Figure II.5.9 and Table II.5.5). In 32 OECD countries, students who had attended pre-primary education for more than one year outperformed students who had not attended pre-primary education at all – in many countries by the equivalent of well over a school year. This finding holds in most countries even after accounting for students’ socio-economic backgrounds. However, across countries, there is considerable variation in the impact of attendance in pre-primary education and reading performance when students are 15 years old. Among OECD countries, in Israel, Belgium, Italy and France, students who attended pre-primary education for more than one year perform at least 64 score points higher in reading than those who did not, which corresponds to the equivalent of roughly one-and-a-half school years. This was the case even after accounting for students’ socio-economic background. On the other hand, in Estonia, Finland, the United States and Korea, there is no marked difference in reading scores between those who attended pre-primary school for more than one year and those who did not attend at all, after accounting for students’ socio-economic background. In Japan, the students who had attended pre-primary education for one year or more scored an average of 39 points higher on the PISA reading scale than those who did not – roughly the equivalent of one school year – and after accounting for students’ socio-economic background, the performance advantage is 24 score points. These results underline the importance of pre-primary education, and international comparisons of primary-school children show high pre-primary enrolment rates among both advantaged and disadvantaged Japanese children. The next challenge will be to increase the positive impact of pre-primary education on performance later on in students’ school careers.One factor that may explain the variations in the impact of pre-primary education on later school performance is the quality of pre-primary education. This hypothesis is supported by the fact that the impact tends to be greater in education systemswhere pre-primary education is of longer duration, has smaller pupil-to-teacher ratios or benefits from higher public expenditure per pupil (Table II.5.6). When this impact is compared according to socio-economic background, in most OECD countries, there is no significant difference in the impact between students from socio-economically disadvantaged and advantaged backgrounds (Table II.5.8). Students benefit equally from attending pre-primary school in 31 OECD countries including Japan and 25 partner countries and economies. The United States is the only OECD country where PISA shows that disadvantaged students benefit more from pre-primary education. Part of the difference in the impact of attendance in pre-primary education on the performance of students from different socio-economic backgrounds may be due to the fact that many factors other than pre-primary education (e.g. education in and out of school that students received between the ages of 6 and 15) may influence 15-year-olds’ performance.
You have seen very large performance differences among schools and countries, but how predictive are these for the success of students and nations?
Let me briefly summarise the influences that we have measured in PISA.
To what extent is performance in school predictive of success in later life?The best way to find out whether what students have learned at school matters for their life is to actuallywatch what happens to them after they leave school. This is exactly what we have done that with around 30,000 students in Canada. We tested them in the year 2000 when they were 15 years old in reading, math and science, and since then we are following up with them each year on what choices they make and how successful they are in their transition from school to higher education and work.The horizontal axis shows you the PISA level which 15-year-old Canadians had scored in 2000. Level 2 is the baseline level on the PISA reading test and Level 5 the top level in reading.The red bar shows you how many times more successful someone who scored Level 2 at age 15 was at age 19 to have made a successful transition to university, as compared to someone who did not make it to the baseline PISA level 1. And to ensure that what you see here is not simply a reflection of social background, gender, immigration or school engagement, we have already statistically accounted for all of these factors. The orange bar. …How would you expect the picture to be like at age 21? We are talking about test scores here, but for a moment, lets go back to the judgements schools make on young people, for example through school marks. You can do the same thing here, you can see how well school marks at age 15 predict the subsequent success of youths. You see that there is some relationship as well, but that it is much less pronounced than when we use the direct measure of skills. What this tells you how important reliable measures of student performance are, an area where the UK is leading the field since some years.
You can see a similar relationship between skills and social outcomes. If you lack foundation skills, you are more likely to be in poor health, you are less likely to volunteer, you will have less of an understanding of political issues facing your country.You are also less likely to trust institution and people and constantly think that others are taking advantage of you. You may ask why trust is so important but the bottom line is that there is no functioning democracy without trust in institutions and there is no functioning business relationship without trust in your partners and the rule of law. Afghanistan is an example for what financial capital can achieve in a country without a human capital base. You will also be less likely to reciprocate.Finally, those with poor skills show also low levels of political efficacy, that is, they tend to believe that politicians do what they want and that they themselves have no influence.
I am going to present evidence on separate issues in turn, but it is their interdependence that is key to understanding the nature of the policy and implementation challenges. If you simply raise entrance standards for teachers, you will choke off supply unless compensation and working conditions are aligned. Raising pay and changing working conditions alone won’t automatically translate into improvements in teacher quality unless standards are raised. Teacher evaluation systems have limited impact where they only relate to compensation but not professional development and career advancement. Giving teachers more autonomy can be counterproductive if the quality and education of the teachers are inadequate.Education is ultimately about student learning outcomes……and these Learning outcomes are the result of what happens in the classroom.Instructional policies and practices, in turn, are shaped by people - teachers, principles and families. And that’s why the quality of an education system cannot exceed the quality of its teachers.But it works the other way round too: The quality of teachers cannot exceed the quality of work organization, the quality of teacher selection and education, teacher careers and teacher evaluation.And it is those processes that we can shape with policy tools. And success depends on the design and implementation of effective policies.
Now, so far so good, and we all get very exited when we talk about teacher recruitment and initial training. And the reason why we get exited is because public policy can easily shape these. Some claim that the best performing systems all recruit their teachers from the top third of school graduates. That’s true for Finland and Korea. But if I look around the table, how many more countries can really claim that teaching is the first choice of graduates? Singapore perhaps? But it simply does not hold for the majority of countries around the table here. If we wait for this marvellous spaceship that will arrive one day and bring us new teachers – and maybe send those who are not effective to the moon - then we will find ourselves in the same situation years from now. And you see that other sectors have acted in much smarter ways. Imagine Nokia, the Finnish technology leader. In the 1960s, Nokia produced car tyres and rubber products. Imagine where they would be now if they had said then: We would really like to produce something more advanced than car tyres, but our engineers are not up to the task. Lets wait until they are retired, then we will train new engineers, and when the new graduates trickle into the labour-market, we will start to do something great. And there is more to this. If you put great teachers into a poor system, the system will win every time. There are plenty of examples for this. No matter how good the pre-service education for teachers is, it cannot be expected to prepare teachers for all the challenges they will face throughout their careers. So let us move on to the second summit topic. [Slide – How teachers are developed] So as important as recruitment and selection of promising graduates is, it can only be one component of human resource management in education. Successful reform requires investment in quality professional development to continuously: Simply look at how significantly the profile of teacher requirements has changed in the last decade alone: They must now place much greater emphasis on integrating students with special learning needs. They need to make more effective use of information technologies. They are required to engage more in planning within evaluative and accountability frameworks. And they are asked to do more to involve parents in schools. I think we all recognize that education is still far from being a knowledge industry, in the sense that its own practices are being continuously transformed by greater understanding of their efficacy. While in many other fields, people enter their professional lives expecting that what they do and how they do it will be transformed by evidence and research, this is still not generally the case in education. Ongoing professional development is a crucial instrument to:update teachers subject knowledge; update teachers skills and approaches in light of new teaching techniques, new circumstances, and new research; enable teachers to master changes made to curricula or teaching practice; enable schools to develop and apply new strategies; and facilitate exchange of experience; In some countries, ongoing professional development already plays an important role. In Shanghai, each teacher is expected to engage in 240 hours of professional development within five years. Singapore provides teachers with 100 hours of professional development per year. But there is a lot of variation in the incidence and intensity of teacher participation in professional development both across and within countries.
There are some lessons we have learned about teacher development: Well-structured and resourced induction programs can support new teachers in their transitionMany countries carefully induct their teachers before they confer on them all the rights and responsibilities of full-time teachers. During that period, they are supervised by master teachers and they get additional instruction and coaching from their supervisory teachers, and observe other teachers. Typically, teachers in this induction period can be coached out of the profession, if, in the opinion of their supervisory teachers, they have not demonstrated that they have the knowledge and skills needed to be a competent professional. [Slide: percentage of teachers without mentoring or induction] But our data show a substantial share of teachers is left without induction - or mentoring. Effective professional development is on-going, include training, practice and feedback, and provide adequate time and follow-up supportSecond, we have learned that effective professional development needs to be on-going, include training, practice and feedback, and provide adequate follow-up. Successful programs involve teachers in learning activities that are similar to those they will use with their students, and encourage the development of teachers’ learning communities. Teacher development needs to be linked with appraisal and feedback practices and school evaluationTeacher development also needs to be linked with appraisal and feedback. And it’s important to provide sufficient room for teachers to employ inquiry- and group-based approaches, especially in the core areas of curriculum and assessment. Our data show that teachers’ participation in professional development goes hand-in-hand with their mastery of a wider repertoire of pedagogical practices. We also see a close relationship between professional development and a positive school climate, co-operation between teachers and teacher job satisfaction. But we also see that that schools and systems need to better match the costs and benefits of, and supply and demand for, professional development.
Here you see the percentage of teachers that participate in various types of professional development across the countries that took part in our TALIS survey.
When you now contrast this with the impact of such professional development, you see that relatively few teachers participate in the kinds of professional development that they believe has the largest impact on their work, namely qualification programs and individual and collaborative research. Teacher demand for professional development is often not met, sometimes for lack of time, sometimes for lack of opportunity…More than half the teachers surveyed also said that they wanted more professional development than they received. Of course, people never feel well enough prepared, but the extent of unsatisfied demand appears large. We have no data on the extent to which this undermines the effectiveness of these teachers. But the cost of providing additional professional development needs to be seen in relation to the cost of not providing it.
I want to conclude with what we have learned about successful reform trajectories In the past when you only needed a small slice of well-educated people it was efficient for governments to invest a large sum in a small elite to lead the country. But the social and economic cost of low educational performance has risen substantially and all young people now need to leave school with strong foundation skills.When you could still assume that what you learn in school will last for a lifetime, teaching content and routine cognitive skills was at the centre of education. Today, where you can access content on Google, where routine cognitive skills are being digitised or outsourced, and where jobs are changing rapidly, the focus is on enabling people to become lifelong learners, to manage complex ways of thinking and complex ways of working that computers cannot take over easily.In the past, teachers had sometimes only a few years more education than the students they taught. When teacher quality is so low, governments tend to tell their teachers exactly what to do and exactly how they want it done and they tend to use Tayloristic methods of administrative control and accountability to get the results they want. Today the challenge is to make teaching a profession of high-level knowledge workers. But such people will not work in schools organised as Tayloristic workplaces using administrative forms of accountability and bureaucratic command and control systems to direct their work. To attract the people they need, successful education systems have transformed the form of work organisation in their schools to a professional form of work organisation in which professional norms of control complement bureaucratic and administrative forms of control.