Public lecture delivered on 7 November to Garden Route stakeholders. The Garden Route is staring over a cliff and the choices we make now will determine our ability to respond to global uncertainties. Two factors: trends in the global economy, and government's commitment to implement the recommendations of the National Planning Commission, will make a huge difference to the Garden Route's future. Four scenarios: "Eish, missed the bus"; "Maverick's paradise"; "Local is Lekker" and "Carpe Diem" could emerge. Our ability to respond to these will depend on flexible yet proactive plannning, management of ecological infrastructure, closing the wealth gap and investing in education and technology.

1. A time for choice:
stewardship of the Garden Route
Christo Fabricius

3. Uncertain times
Complex systems
• Social, political, economic, technological,
ecological
Unpredictability
• “wild cards”
• “episodic events”
• Shocks, surprise
Non-linear change
• The past is not a good predictor of the future
• Trends and extrapolation not very useful

4. “Regime shifts”
A large, abrupt
Lasting impacts on
change in the way a
productivity
system functions

5. Capacity / Lost ecosystem services
Slow and fast factors
Time
Institutional capacity Ecosystem services

6. Making peace with
uncertainty
• Think short and long term
Considering • See the over-all picture
• Question the future
multiple
• Consider implications of
possible policy decisions
futures • Experiment, monitor,
learn

7. Asking the right questions
• Political
• Ecological
• Economic
Which factors are • Social
beyond the Garden
Route’s control? • Technological
• Political
• Ecological
• Economic
Which factors are • Social
important for our
future? • Technological

8. Planning under uncertain conditions
Uncontrollable factors Controllable factors
• Fires • Ecological infrastructure
Ecosystem
• Floods • Biodiversity
management
• Droughts • Invasive alien plants
• USA • Implementation
Local Economic
• Eurozone • Responsiveness
Development
• China • Debt vs investment
Local
• Policies • Capacity development
• Vision 2030 policies, • Skills
strategies and
• Capacity • Education
practices
• Technology:
Private sector
Population • Immigration
investment
• Green economy
• Affordable infrastructure

10. Outside forces
Shocks and surprises
Vulnerability
Resilience
People’s choices

11. The future isn’t what it used to be..
• Anarchy • “New balls
• Failed state please”
• OR • Premier league
• “second division”
Global economic recovery
Eish (we
Carpe
missed
diem
the bus)
Maveric’s Local is
paradise lekker
• Hard times for all • Pockets of
excellence
• Innovation
Ignored Implementation of Vision 2030 Prioritized

12. What to do?
hedging our bets..

13. Ecosystem management
• Repair ecological infrastructure
• Coastal fore-dunes
• Riverbanks
• Wetlands
• Indigenous forests
• Manage threats NOW
• Invasive plants
• Land transformation
• Partnerships; imaginative proposals;
innovation funding

14. Local Economic Development
Implementation of the
PACA results
Capacity development • Project management skills
• Existing unproductive expenditure and commitments
Carefully assess priorities • Be prepared to dump some projects
• But pride and egos?
The Garden Route as a
• Many have spoken about it - heed the calls
“knowledge and education
• Align development priorities
hub” in South Africa

15. Local policy reform
Accountability
of local political
representatives
Assess impact of Reduce where
possible and
bureaucracy feasible
Cooperation
restore trust
and and credibility
‘stewardship’
Close the
Plans and
wealth gap and incentives
promote unity
Align IDPs with Can existing
economic Think outside
budgets be
the box with the
development spent more
IDP process
priorities strategically?

16. Private sector investment
Strategic
• Barriers & bridges
assessment
Capacity to form • Match-makers, facilitators
partnerships • Project management skills
Strategic • Innovators, regulators and
alliances implementers

17. Conclusions
• Choices: the Garden Route is staring over a
cliff
• We are probably the last generation who can
pre-empt and manage a tipping point
• Yes, we are accountable
• Stewardship: holding ourselves accountable
for the choices we make now