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EUROPE & THE CIS:
What does the future
hold?
SBB European Steel Conference Global reach; local impact


                                ANTON BAZULEV
                                DIRECTOR OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS
                                NLMK
              Barcelona, May 2011
CIS steel sector at a glance
 12   mt
                               CIS crude steel production                    CIS steel consumption
 10

  8

  6

  4

  2

  0



      Source: Word Steel Association (WSA). State statistics organizations

o Surplus of steel is exported from Russia and the CIS countries mostly as semi-
  finished products
o There is a huge potential for the CIS steel consumption

                                                                                                     2
Steel exports: CIS is a largest player
               LARGEST STEEL EXPORTERS                 CIS EXPORTS BY PRODUCT
              mt                               %
                                                                                                  Slabs
  EU                                                                                              HRC
                                                                                                  CRC
                                                                                                  Coated
                                                                                                  Longs
Japan
                                                   Source: Statistic services (2005-2009)
                                                    CIS EXPORTS BY DESTINATION
China                                          %


                                                                                                  EU
                                                                                                  MENA
  CIS                                                                                             Asia
                                                                                                  NAFTA
                                                                                                  Other
          0               50             100
        Source: WSA
                                                    Source: WSA, Statistic services (2005-2009)            3
Crude steel production costs
                                                       CIS STEEL PRODUCTION ADVANTAGE
 Energy
                                                     $/t
                                                           250
 Other
                                                           200
                                                                                  Labor

  Labor                                                    150
                                                                                  Scrap
                                                           100
                                                                                  Iron ore
  Scrap                                                     50
                                                                                  Coal
                                                             0
Iron ore                                                         Cost advantage


   Coke                                              o Cost advantage mainly lies in the
                                                       access to low-cost raw materials
   Coal
                                               $/t   o Ongoing assets rewamp in CIS to eat
                                                       into EU advantages – energy
           0            100            200     300
                                                       efficiency and labor productivity
                  CIS               W.Europe
           Source: WSD, Company estimates
                                                                                             4
CIS: further productivity growth
                                                    STEEL SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY
  3
                                                                                   Per.hours/t
                     Productivity index, 1993=100
 2.5                                                   EU


  2
                                                    Japan

 1.5

                                                     USA
  1


 0.5
                                                    Russia

  0
       1993
       1994
       1995
       1996
       1997
       1998
       1999
       2000
       2001
       2002
       2003
       2004
       2005
       2006
       2007
       2008
       2009
       2010
                                                             0                 5                 10

       Source: WSA                                           Russia    USA         Japan   EU
                                                         Source: McKinsey researc
o Modernization and business processes optimization significantly
  improved productivity of the CIS steel sector

o Still remain further room for improvement
                                                                                                      5
Raw material access favors
production growth
                                                                     TOP 3 IMPORTERS
                                                    %
o CIS has the largest raw materials
  reserves:                                                 11%                          23%
                                                                       EU
   o #1 in iron ore                                         19%                          7%        EU
   o Top 3 – coking coal                                               Asia                        LatAm
o CIS Steel sector is vertically integrated                 49%        China
                                                                                         61%       Asia
  in captive raw materials supply
   o >65% - coal self-sufficiency                   Iron ore imports              C/coal imports
                                                    Source: WSA
   o >70% - iron self-sufficiency                     PRICES: COKING COAL AND IRON ORE
o This leaves the sector shielded from              $/t
                                            500
  the raw materials market fluctuations
                                            400
                                            300
                                            200
                                            100
                                              0
                                                   Jan 02
                                                   Jan 01




                                                   Jan 03

                                                   Jan 04

                                                   Jan 05

                                                   Jan 06

                                                   Jan 07

                                                   Jan 08

                                                   Jan 09

                                                   Jan 10

                                                   Jan 11
                                                    Jul 01

                                                    Jul 02

                                                    Jul 03

                                                    Jul 04

                                                    Jul 05

                                                    Jul 06

                                                    Jul 07

                                                    Jul 08

                                                    Jul 09

                                                    Jul 10
                                                                     Iron ore   C/coal                     6
                                                  Source: SBB, Bloomberg
BF production steadily becomes less and
less efficient in Europe
 95%
       %
 90%

 85%

 80%

 75%

 70%

 65%

 60%
         2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
                         BOF (EU15) run rate     BOF (CIS) run rate
 Source: WSA, Company estimates


o During the last decade BOF steel production in EU was steadily declining
o During the downturn the BOF operations become less efficient…
o Available low cost semis allow EU steel sector to reduce costs at the trough of the
  cycle
                                                                                        7
CIS & EU – natural trading partners in steel
                  RUSSIAN EXPORTS OF SEMIS                      CIS EXPORTS TO EU BY PRODUCT
25.000        ,000 t                                             %


20.000
                                                                            25%
15.000

10.000
                                                                                         75%
 5.000
                           4.430        5.623   4.418   5.764
              3.678
 0.000                                                                   Semis & other    Finished steel
              2006         2007        2008      2009   2010
                                   EU 27        ROW
Source: Russia’s Federal Statistics Agency                       Source: Eurostat


   o 35% of semis exported to EU
   o 75% of CIS exports to EU are semis
   o … demonstrates an excellent cross border value chain integration of low cost semis
     producers in CIS offering competitive pricing (as compared to EU marginal cost of
                                                                                                           8
     steel production) and short lead times due to geographic proximity of the regions
Russian quotas to the EU
                                                                     IMPORT QUOTAS COVERED
4000                           Exports are sustainably lower     %
         ,000 t                than quotas envisage                              80%
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500                                                                                                 20%
1000
 500                                                                     Flat imports (CIS) Longs imports
                                                                                                (CIS)
   0
    2005      2006      2007         2008       2009      2010
     Remaining volumes available for imports based on import
     quotas
  Source: Russian Union of Metal Exporters                       Source: Russian Union of Metal Exporters

o 80% of quotas for flat steel and 20% for long steel are covered
o Imported flat steel feedstock is used for further processing and value creation by EU
  re-rollers and manufacturing businesses
o Possibility to add value to long steel is limited, so local production is more
  competitive in the regional markets
EU: market position supported by CIS
240
      supply                    STEEL FLOWS: CIS TO EU
        mt                                                        - Slab supply
220                                                              - Finished steel from EU
                                                                                                   CIS: 6.7 mt
200
                                                            ROW: 1.2 mt                                    Russia
180                                                                                                       Ukraine
                                                                                                       Kazakhstan
160
140
120
                                                           ROW: 15.3 mt
100
       2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
                                                                                                  CIS: 1 mt
         ASU EU27      Steel production EU27
Source: WSA
      o Crude steel becomes economically                   25
                                                                Source: Eurostat

        justified only when steel prices are high                mt
                                                           20                                        Value added
      o EU is one of the largest exporters and in
        order to maintain its market position in           15
        the global steel market it requires a                                                        HRC
                                                           10
        substantial imports of semi-finished steel
        as the level of ASU is matching steel               5
                                                                                                     Semis
        production                                          0
                                                                  EU Exports         EU Imports                10
                                                                 Source: Eurostat
EU is efficient in steel–intensive industries
       EU EXPORT OF MACHINERY PRODUCTS                  EU: VALUE ADDED BUSINESS MODEL
2500      ,000 t                                          €/t
                                                                                € 955       € 1,455
2000

1500

1000
                                                                    € 500
 500

   0
         2006       2007     2008    2009        2010
                                                                1 imported   Value added   1 exported
        Mech'l engineering     Locomotives & railcars
                                                                    ton                        ton
        Vehicles               Ships, etc               Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat

o Developed manufacturing sector in EU (auto, engineering) shapes the steel sector
  business model favoring
o … efficient high-value tailor made products manufacturers offering
o … intensive service which requires significant technical collaboration
                                                                                                        11
RUSSIA & EU: further development trends
    Trend 1: Upstream integration     Trend 2: Downstream development
    Strengthening Russia’s and            Developing EU processing
    CIS’s role as supplier of semi-       outlets closer to Russian steel
    finished and finished steel for        suppliers and consumers in
                the EU                                the CIS


•    Quality improvement              •   Automotive

•    Expanding product range          •   Mechanical engineering

•    Captive downstream assets in
     the EU (NLMK, Mechel, Evraz,
     others)




        BOTH TRENDS ARE BENEFICIAL FOR THE EU AND RUSSIA!                   12
NLMK: Unique and competetive business model
                  Plate BU : 1,750,000 t capacity
                                                                  Annual production
                                                                  capacity
                                                                  (end of 2011 forecast)
                                                                  12,400,000 t
                                                                  of steel




                                                             Available slabs
                                                             7,000,000 t



                                    Strip Product BU : 2,600,000 t capacity



 A fully integrated supply chain with own raw material sources,
 conversion and logistics system
                                                                                           13
Conclusion: CIS and EU - partners in steel

o CIS position in low cost crude steel production perfectly fits massive sustainable
  market in EU which make us natural partners in steel value chain

o Last decade Russia completely overhauled its crude steel facilities making it one of
  the modern in the world. Around $32 bn were invested in 2000-2010

o Finished steel exports from Russia are not always able to meet local demand in EU

o EU-based rolling facilities can offer an extension to Russian steelmakers that
  match the demand from European customers

o Finished steel imported from EU saturates growing demand in innovative steel
  solution in Russia. We are an excellent example of a win-win cooperation in the
  global economy!




                                                                                         14
THANK YOU



SBB European Steel Conference Global reach; local impact

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Nlmk sbb steel markets europe, spain, 26-may-2011

  • 1. EUROPE & THE CIS: What does the future hold? SBB European Steel Conference Global reach; local impact ANTON BAZULEV DIRECTOR OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS NLMK Barcelona, May 2011
  • 2. CIS steel sector at a glance 12 mt CIS crude steel production CIS steel consumption 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: Word Steel Association (WSA). State statistics organizations o Surplus of steel is exported from Russia and the CIS countries mostly as semi- finished products o There is a huge potential for the CIS steel consumption 2
  • 3. Steel exports: CIS is a largest player LARGEST STEEL EXPORTERS CIS EXPORTS BY PRODUCT mt % Slabs EU HRC CRC Coated Longs Japan Source: Statistic services (2005-2009) CIS EXPORTS BY DESTINATION China % EU MENA CIS Asia NAFTA Other 0 50 100 Source: WSA Source: WSA, Statistic services (2005-2009) 3
  • 4. Crude steel production costs CIS STEEL PRODUCTION ADVANTAGE Energy $/t 250 Other 200 Labor Labor 150 Scrap 100 Iron ore Scrap 50 Coal 0 Iron ore Cost advantage Coke o Cost advantage mainly lies in the access to low-cost raw materials Coal $/t o Ongoing assets rewamp in CIS to eat into EU advantages – energy 0 100 200 300 efficiency and labor productivity CIS W.Europe Source: WSD, Company estimates 4
  • 5. CIS: further productivity growth STEEL SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY 3 Per.hours/t Productivity index, 1993=100 2.5 EU 2 Japan 1.5 USA 1 0.5 Russia 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 5 10 Source: WSA Russia USA Japan EU Source: McKinsey researc o Modernization and business processes optimization significantly improved productivity of the CIS steel sector o Still remain further room for improvement 5
  • 6. Raw material access favors production growth TOP 3 IMPORTERS % o CIS has the largest raw materials reserves: 11% 23% EU o #1 in iron ore 19% 7% EU o Top 3 – coking coal Asia LatAm o CIS Steel sector is vertically integrated 49% China 61% Asia in captive raw materials supply o >65% - coal self-sufficiency Iron ore imports C/coal imports Source: WSA o >70% - iron self-sufficiency PRICES: COKING COAL AND IRON ORE o This leaves the sector shielded from $/t 500 the raw materials market fluctuations 400 300 200 100 0 Jan 02 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Iron ore C/coal 6 Source: SBB, Bloomberg
  • 7. BF production steadily becomes less and less efficient in Europe 95% % 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BOF (EU15) run rate BOF (CIS) run rate Source: WSA, Company estimates o During the last decade BOF steel production in EU was steadily declining o During the downturn the BOF operations become less efficient… o Available low cost semis allow EU steel sector to reduce costs at the trough of the cycle 7
  • 8. CIS & EU – natural trading partners in steel RUSSIAN EXPORTS OF SEMIS CIS EXPORTS TO EU BY PRODUCT 25.000 ,000 t % 20.000 25% 15.000 10.000 75% 5.000 4.430 5.623 4.418 5.764 3.678 0.000 Semis & other Finished steel 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 EU 27 ROW Source: Russia’s Federal Statistics Agency Source: Eurostat o 35% of semis exported to EU o 75% of CIS exports to EU are semis o … demonstrates an excellent cross border value chain integration of low cost semis producers in CIS offering competitive pricing (as compared to EU marginal cost of 8 steel production) and short lead times due to geographic proximity of the regions
  • 9. Russian quotas to the EU IMPORT QUOTAS COVERED 4000 Exports are sustainably lower % ,000 t than quotas envisage 80% 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 20% 1000 500 Flat imports (CIS) Longs imports (CIS) 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Remaining volumes available for imports based on import quotas Source: Russian Union of Metal Exporters Source: Russian Union of Metal Exporters o 80% of quotas for flat steel and 20% for long steel are covered o Imported flat steel feedstock is used for further processing and value creation by EU re-rollers and manufacturing businesses o Possibility to add value to long steel is limited, so local production is more competitive in the regional markets
  • 10. EU: market position supported by CIS 240 supply STEEL FLOWS: CIS TO EU mt - Slab supply 220 - Finished steel from EU CIS: 6.7 mt 200 ROW: 1.2 mt Russia 180 Ukraine Kazakhstan 160 140 120 ROW: 15.3 mt 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 CIS: 1 mt ASU EU27 Steel production EU27 Source: WSA o Crude steel becomes economically 25 Source: Eurostat justified only when steel prices are high mt 20 Value added o EU is one of the largest exporters and in order to maintain its market position in 15 the global steel market it requires a HRC 10 substantial imports of semi-finished steel as the level of ASU is matching steel 5 Semis production 0 EU Exports EU Imports 10 Source: Eurostat
  • 11. EU is efficient in steel–intensive industries EU EXPORT OF MACHINERY PRODUCTS EU: VALUE ADDED BUSINESS MODEL 2500 ,000 t €/t € 955 € 1,455 2000 1500 1000 € 500 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 imported Value added 1 exported Mech'l engineering Locomotives & railcars ton ton Vehicles Ships, etc Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat o Developed manufacturing sector in EU (auto, engineering) shapes the steel sector business model favoring o … efficient high-value tailor made products manufacturers offering o … intensive service which requires significant technical collaboration 11
  • 12. RUSSIA & EU: further development trends Trend 1: Upstream integration Trend 2: Downstream development Strengthening Russia’s and Developing EU processing CIS’s role as supplier of semi- outlets closer to Russian steel finished and finished steel for suppliers and consumers in the EU the CIS • Quality improvement • Automotive • Expanding product range • Mechanical engineering • Captive downstream assets in the EU (NLMK, Mechel, Evraz, others) BOTH TRENDS ARE BENEFICIAL FOR THE EU AND RUSSIA! 12
  • 13. NLMK: Unique and competetive business model Plate BU : 1,750,000 t capacity Annual production capacity (end of 2011 forecast) 12,400,000 t of steel Available slabs 7,000,000 t Strip Product BU : 2,600,000 t capacity A fully integrated supply chain with own raw material sources, conversion and logistics system 13
  • 14. Conclusion: CIS and EU - partners in steel o CIS position in low cost crude steel production perfectly fits massive sustainable market in EU which make us natural partners in steel value chain o Last decade Russia completely overhauled its crude steel facilities making it one of the modern in the world. Around $32 bn were invested in 2000-2010 o Finished steel exports from Russia are not always able to meet local demand in EU o EU-based rolling facilities can offer an extension to Russian steelmakers that match the demand from European customers o Finished steel imported from EU saturates growing demand in innovative steel solution in Russia. We are an excellent example of a win-win cooperation in the global economy! 14
  • 15. THANK YOU SBB European Steel Conference Global reach; local impact