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Cosmic rays and climate

    Jasper Kirkby /CERN
 CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009




              1
1. Present climate change




            2
Climate forcings (IPCC 2007)
                                     Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
                           .6
                                   GISS
                                           Annual Mean
                           .4
Temperature Anomaly (°C)




                                           5-year Mean

                           .2


                           .0


                           -.2


                           -.4
                           1880     1900      1920    1940   1960   1980   2000


                           •     0.7oC rise since 1900 (not uniform)
                           •     IPCC findings:
                                 ‣ Total anthropogenic 1.6 W/m2
                                   (≅ 1 candle per 25 m2)
                                 ‣ Negligible natural (solar) contribution: 0.12 W/m2
                                 ‣ Clouds poorly understood
                                                                                  3
Why clouds are important for climate change
             John Constable, Cloud study, 1821




                                                 •   Clouds cover ~65%
                                                     of globe, annual
                                                     average

                                                 •   Net cooling of
                                                     30 W/m2

                                                 •   c.f. 1.6 W/m2 total
                                                     anthropogenic




                            4
NASA CERES satellite




•   Data from CERES satellite (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System)
•   Clouds (and oceans) are poorly simulated in climate models
    (finest grid sizes ~100 km x 100 km)
                                     5
II. Evidence for pre-industrial solar-climate
                    variability


• Numerous palaeoclimatic reconstructions suggest that
  solar/GCR variability has an important influence on climate
• However, there is no established physical mechanism, and
  so solar-climate variability is:
  ‣ Controversial subject
  ‣ Not included in current climate models

                             6
Little Ice Age and the sunspot record
                                                                                  The frozen Thames, 1677




                 200                                                                                      200
Sunspot number




                             Little Ice Age                      Dalton
                                                                Minimum
                 100                                                                                      100
                               Maunder Minimum

                  0                                                                                       0
                  1600         1650           1700   1750   1800          1850   1900        1950      2000
                                                            Year

                       •   Inactive sun (low sunspot peak, long cycle length)           cold climate
                       •   Active sun (high sunspot peak, short cycle length)
                                                            7
                                                                                        warm climate
1000           1200           1400         1600           1800             2000

                                                                                                                                                                                                Global climate - last 2000yr




                                                                                                                                             Greenland surface temperature (oC)
                                                      a) Northern hemisphere temperature
                                              0.4
                                                          Medieval Warm               Little Ice Age
             Temperature anomaly ( C)
         o




                                                                                                      instrumental

                                                                                                                                                                                                         •




                                                                                                                                                    -32 GRIP -31
                                                                                                                                                   -20.6 Dye 3 -19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Little Ice Age and
                                                0
                                                                                                   hockey stick


                                              -0.4   multi-proxy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Medieval Warm Period
                                                                                                                                                                                                         •
                                                     (tree rings, pollen,
                                                     shells, stalagmites, etc.)
                                                       Greenland boreholes (rhs)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Global observations
                                              -0.8
                                                              worldwide boreholes

                                                      b) Galactic cosmic rays                         10Be (Greenland)                                                                                    high GCR flux                     cool climate
             GCR change (% from 1950 value)




                                              -10                                 14C (rh scale)
                                                                                                            (arb. scale)                     -20




                                                                                                                                                                   Carbon-14 anomaly (x 10-3)
                                                                                                                                                                                                           low GCR flux                     warm climate
                                                0

                                               10




                                                                                                                           increasing GCR
                                                                                                                                             0

                                               20
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Austrian speleothem:

                                               30            10Be (South Pole)                                                                                                                                                                                   320
                                                                                                                                             20                                                                                    CO2
                                                                         (lh scale)                                                                                                                                                                                     CO2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (ppm)
                                               40                                                                                                                                                                                                                290
                                                      c) Tropical Andes glaciers                                                                                                                -10                                                              -8.0
                                                0                                                                                                                                                                            GCR
Lake Mucubaji magnetic
susceptibility (SI x10-6)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !18O
                                                                                                                                                              GCR/                               0                                                                      (‰)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -7.5
                                                                                                                                                              "14C
                                                                                                                           glacial advance




                                                3
                                                                                                                                                               (‰)
                                                                                                                                                                                                10                                                                      1oC
                                                                                                                                                                                                            !18O
                                                6                                                                                                                                                                                                                -7.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mangini et al., EPSL 235 (2005)
                                                                                                                                                                                                20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 500             1000          1500       2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Year (AD)
                                                        1000           1200           1400         1600           1800             2000
                                                                                          Year (AD)                                                                     8
Siberian climate - last 700 yr
• Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR
  variability and temperature in Siberia from glacial ice core
• 30 yr lag (ie. ocean currents may be part of response)
                                      Eichler et al. GRL 36 (2009)
      Siberia temperature (oC)




                                                        solar/GCR (rhs):   10Be
                                 2
                                                                           14C    4




                                                                                       Solar modulation
                                 1              temperature
                                                   (lhs)                          2




                                                                                           (! units)
                                 0
                                                                                  0

                                 -1
                                                                                  -2

                                       1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
                                                          Year
                                                            9
N. Atlantic ice rafted debris - last 10 kyr (Holocene)
                                                                           Bond et al, Science 294, 2001
                                            Cosmic rays:                                                                Ice-rafted
                                                                                                                        debris (%):
                                             Low cosmic -0.4                                        GCR                 -4 Less
                                               ray flux                                            (10Be)                   ice

                                                           0.0                                                          0
                                                                                                       ice-rafted
                                                                                                       debris
                                                           0.4                                                          4
                                             High cosmic                                                                    More
                                               ray flux                                                                      ice
                                                                                                 Little Ice Age
                                             Low cosmic -0.1                                  Medieval Warm             -4 Less
                                               ray flux                                                                     ice
                                                           0.0                                                          0
haemetite-stained grains    quartz grains
                  0.12 mm
                                                           0.1
                                                                                                           GCR          4
                                             High cosmic                                                                    More
                                                                                   ice-rafted debris       (14C)
                                               ray flux                                                                      ice


                                                                 12   10       8      6        4           2        0
                                                                           Calendar age (kyr BP)
  Icelandic glass grains     foraminifera



        • LIA is merely the most recent of 10
                                            around 10 such events in Holocene
GCR influence on ITCZ/monsoon in Little Ice Age?

                                      high GCR flux     southerly ITCZ shift

                                      low GCR flux      northerly ITCZ shift


                                                     Drier in LIA
                                                     Wetter in LIA



                                                                   ITCZ
                                                               displacement
                                            D11                 during LIA
                  D7
 July ITCZ D5          D8             D10     D13    D12

             D6        D9
                  W0                                        Equator
                                 W2
  January ITCZ                                        W4
                                 W3
                       W1




                            11
Indian Ocean monsoon - 6.5-9.5 kyr ago
                                  U. Neff et al. (Nature 411, 2001)
high   a                               14C (GCR intensity)                                 dry                                              510 ± 30
                                                                                                                                           1400 ± 30
GCR 10                                                                                                                                     3010 ± 60
                                                                                                                                           3740 ± 130
                                                                                    –3.5                                                   3790 ± 140
          5
                                                                                                                                           4380 ± 260
                                                                                                        IT C Z




                                                                                           O (‰ VPDB)
                                                                                    –4.0                                                   4370 ± 100
          0
 C (‰)




                                                                                                                                             4900 ± 140

          –5                                                                        –4.5                                                     5750 ± 100
                                                                                                                     Jun-Aug
 14




                                                                                                                                             6540 ± 180
                                                                                                                    monsoons




                                                                                           18
         –10                                                                        –5.0                                                     6960 ± 50
                                                                                                                                             7910 ± 210

                                                                                                                                             8880 ± 90
                                                                                                                                             8870 ± 230
         –15                                                                        –5.5
low                                                                                                                                         9760 ± 150




                                                                                                                                   10 cm
                                                  18
                                                       O (rainfall)                                                                         10,060 ± 210
GCR                                                                                        wet                   High pres s ure            10,470 ± 170
               6.500   7.000   7.500      8.000        8.500      9.000     9.500
                           Age (kyr BP)

high 10                                                                                    dry
        b               14C (GCR intensity)
GCR
      5

                                                                                                        • Solar/GCR forcing of Indian
                                                                                    –4.0

          0

          –5                                                                        –4.5
                                                                                           O (‰ VPDB)
                                                                                                           Ocean monsoons (ITCZ
 C (‰)




         –10                                                                                               migration) on centennial—even
 14




                                                                                    –5.0                   decadel—timescales
                                                                                           18




         –15

         –20                                  18
                                                   O (rainfall)
low                                                                                 –5.5
GCR                                                                                        wet
           7.900       8.000        8.100                8.200            8.300
                                    Age (kyr BP)                                                 12
Solar-climate mechanisms

• Candidates for




                                       Global mean temperature (0C)
                                                                      0.15

    solar-climate variability:    0.10
                                                                               solar irradiance
                                                                             estimated forcing
                                                                                                  Lean et al. (1995)

                                                                              (MAGICC GCM)
    ‣ direct effect:              0.05


      ✦ total solar irradiance       0

                                 -0.05                              Lean et al. (2002)
      ✦ solar UV
                                 -0.10

    ‣ indirect effect:                1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
                                                          Year

      ✦ galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) /ionising particles
•   Can be resolved in principle since GCRs are, in addition to
    11-year solar cycle, modulated by:
    ‣ solar magnetic disturbances (esp. high latitude effects)
    ‣ geomagnetic field (low latitude effects)
    ‣ galactic environment
                                                                      13
Asian monsoon and geomagnetic field
                                                                                                            East Asian monsoon instensity; Wang et al., Nature 451, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                440




                                                                                                                         Monsoon
                                                                                                                         intensity
                                                                                                     –12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       N. Hemisphere summer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2! U-Th dating errors




                                                                                    18 O (‰, VPDB)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          insolation (W m-2)
                                                                                                     –11                                                                                                                                                                                                        420

                                                                                                     –10                                                                                                                                                                                                        400
                                                                                                      –9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                380
                                                                                                      –8
                                                                                                      –7                                                                                                                                                                                                        360
                                                                                                                    Sanbao/Hulu caves, China

                                                                                                            0      20                        40                      60                                              80         100 120 140                                160        180       200       220
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Age (kyr BP)
                           Knudsen & Riisager, GSA 2009




                                                                                                                             Geomagnetic dipole moment (1021Am2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0.4




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                monsoon intensity
                –7.0                                                                                                    120                                                                                                                         residuals for last 5000yr                                      20
                                                                           geomagnetic field                                                                                                                                                                                                    Asian monsoon




                                                                                                                                                                         Summer insolation, 30N (W m-2)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            dipole moment (1021Am2)
                                                                                                                                                                   460                                                0.2
                                                                           (± 2! band)




                                                                                                                                                                                                          (‰ VPDB)
                –7.4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10
                                                                                                                        100
18 O (‰ VPDB)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0.0
                –7.8                                                                                                                                               470                                                                                                                                             0
                                                  summer                                                                80
                              monsoon intensity




                                                                                                                                                                                                          18O
                –8.2                              insolation                                                                                                                                                         –0.2                                                 geomagnetic field
                                                                                                                                                                   480                                                                                                                                             –10
                                                      Asian monsoon
                –8.6                                                                                                    60                                                                                           –0.4
                                                      (Dongge Cave, China)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         –20
                                                                                                                                                                   490
                                                         r (0–5000 BP) = 0.86                                                                                                                                                                                 r (0–5000 BP) = 0.71
                –9.0                                                                                                  40                                                                                             –0.6                                                                                          –30
                       0      1000                2000    3000     4000    5000   6000               7000   8000   9000                                                                                                     0                          1000          2000             3000         4000         5000
                                                                  Age (yr B.P.)                                                                                                                                                                                                 Age (yr B.P.)


         •             Asian monsoon controlled by orbital insolation - with strong millennial-scale variability
         •             Possible influence of geomagnetic field on Asian monsoon?
         •             Opposite sign of effect: lower B field → increased GCR → increased monsoon intensity,
                       which could result from latitudinal differences of solar- and geomagnetic modulations
                                                                                                                                                                    14
Galactic modulation of climate? - 500 Myr
                                                    CO2              GCR


                                                           icehouse
                                                                greenhouse




               Shaviv & Veizer,
               GSA Today, 2003

•   Orbital period of Sun/Earth around Milky Way ~550Myr
•   High GCR flux in spiral arms => 140 Myr period
•   Same period and phase found in benthic sea temperature (4oC amplitude) and ice
    age epochs (icehouse/greenhouse)
                                        15
III. Solar variability in the 20th century




                    16
Sun (photosphere) seen in visible (677nm) at solar max (2001)




                                                     NASA/ESA
                                                     SOHO
                             17
Sun (corona) seen with extreme UV eyes (20nm)




                                      NASA/ESA
                                      SOHO
                      18
Cosmic ray changes during 20th century
                                                                                           0
                                        galactic cosmic          solar magnetic flux                                                                                    Lebedev balloon GCR data:




                                                                                                Solar magnetic flux (x1014 Wb)
                                        rays                                                                                                                      3.5
                                                                                           5                                                                                    a)                                  Murmansk
                                1.6

                                                                                           10
10Be concentration (x104 g-1)




                                                                                                                                                                  3.0




                                                                                                                                 Cosmic ray intensity (cm-2s-1)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mirny
                                1.2

                                                                                           15

                                0.8                                                                                                                               2.5                                                         Moscow



                                0.4
                                                                           10Be (GCR)                                                                                                weaker solar
                                                                                                                                                                  2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                     modulation at low latitudes,
                                 0                                                                                                                                                   due to geomagnetic shielding
                                 1700     1750   1800     1850      1900      1950      2000
                                                          Year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Alma-Ata

                 •
                                                                                                                                                                  1.5
                                      Solar open magnetic flux
                                      increased by x2.3 in 20th century
                 •
                                                                                                                                                                                b)
                                      GCR net decrease by ~20%                                                                                                    200
                                                                                                                                   Sunpot number




                                      (mostly in 1st half of century)                                                                                             100


                 •                    Largely only solar cycle variations
                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                                                                                                                                                        cycle
                                                                                                                                                                         19
                                                                                                                                                                                         cycle
                                                                                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                                                                                           cycle
                                                                                                                                                                                                            21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     cycle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        cycle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         23


                                      of GCR flux in 2nd half                                                                                                              1960            1970            1980      1990                2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Year


                                                                                                                                                                   19
Sea-level change in 20th century                                                                      Year
                                                                                                                                       1920         1940           1960       1980   2000
                                                                                                                             8
                                                                                                                                         sea-level rate:
                                                                                                                                         9 stations                 sunspot number
                                           Holgate, GRL (2007)                                                                           177 stations                                 <TOPEX
                                   150                                                                                       6                                                        satellite>




                                                                                          Rate of sea level change (mm/yr)
                                                                                                                                                                                              200
Cumulative sea level change (mm)




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sunspot number (smoothed)
                                                                                                                             4
                                                                                                                                                                                            150
                                   100

                                                                                                                             2                                                              100


                                   50                                                                                                                                                       50
                                                                                                                             0

                                                                                                                                                                                            0

                                    0                                                                                        -2
                                    1900      1920     1940          1960   1980   2000
                                                              Year                                                           -4

                                                                                                                                       1920         1940           1960       1980   2000
                                                                                                                                                  Year (decade mid-point)


                   •                     Steady rise of sea-level; mean rate = 1.7 mm/yr
                   •                     No increase in rate during recent decades
                   •                     Thermal expansion of oceans (mainly) + land ice melting
                   •                     Rate of sea-level rise is strongly modulated
                                                 solar modulation? (but solar irradiance variation is too small)
                                                                                                                                  20
Sea-level positive feedback




             21
Recent global temperatures - last 30 yr
                           1.0                                                                           1.0
                                                  surface temperatures; thermometers
                           0.8                    (Hadley and GISS)                                      0.8
Temperature anomaly (oC)




                           0.6                                                                           0.6
                           0.4                                                                           0.4
                           0.2                                                                           0.2
                             0                                                                           0
                           -0.2                                                                          -0.2
                                                                            tropospheric temperatures;
                           -0.4                                             satellite microwaves (UAH)   -0.4
                           -0.6                                                                          -0.6

                                  1980     1985        1990          1995        2000        2005
                                                              Year

                             •     Most of ~2 yr fluctuations due to
                                   El Niño-Southern Oscillation (eg 1997-98)
                                   + volcanoes (El Chichon 1982, Pinatubo 1991)
                             •     Satellite and radiosonde (tropospheric) data show
                                   ‣ less warming than thermometer measurements of surface
                                   ‣ no enhanced upper tropospheric warming, expected from GHG
                             •     Mean global temperatures flat over last 8 years. Cause not known but
                                   CO2 increasing, so must be natural forcing
                                                                                             22
Pacific Decadel Oscillation




•   PDO (Hare 1996) is similar to ENSO (temperature anomalies and surface
    winds), except for long (30 yr) periodicity and primary effect on Pacific NW
•   PDO transitions coincide with gradient changes of global temperatures
•   PDO may be shifting to negative phase
                                        23
Sunspot weakening
                                                            Livingston and Penn, National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ
                                                            "Sunspots may vanish by 2015", submitted 2005 (rejected for publication)
                                                           Livingston and Penn, 2005                                                             example measurements:
Sunspot magnetic field (G)




                                               3000                                                                                       0.0




                                                                                                               Normalised central depth
                                                                            Fe 1564.8 magnetic spliting                                   0.1
                                                                                                                                                      CN
                                               2500                                                                                                                       OH
                                                                                                                                          0.2
                                                                                                   2015
                                                                                                                                                            Fe I 1564.8
                                                                                                                                          0.3
                                               2000                                                                                                         Jan 2002
                                                                                                                                          0.4
                                                                                                                                                            Jun 1991
                                                                                                                                                                               OH
                                                           minimum B field for visible sunspots                                           0.5
                                               1500                                                                                                                             OH 1565.3
                                                             2000          2005          2010       2015                                  0.6
                                                                                                                                                0.4   0.6     0.8    1.0       1.2   1.4    1.6
                                                                               Year
                                                                                                                                                        ! Wavelength (+1564 nm)
                                                     1.0
                (Sunspot / photospheric) intensity




                                                            Sunspot contrast                                   ‣ Temperature-sensitive molecular lines
                                                            (1.0 = invisible)
                                                     0.9
                                                                                                               ‣ Zeeman splitting of Fe I line
                                                     0.8
                                                                                                  2014         ‣ Continuum brightness of sunspot umbrae
                                                                                                           •   Sunspot umbrae warming at 45K /yr
                                                     0.7
                                                                                                           •   Sunspot magnetic fields decreasing at 77 G/yr
                                                     0.6                                                   •   Independent of sunspot cycle

                                                             2000          2005          2010       2015
                                                                                                           •   Linear extrapolation sunspots vanish after
                                                                               Year
                                                                                                               2015 (like Maunder Minimum)
                                                                                                               24
Current very low solar activity
                                                                                                                                                  •
                                                             Galactic cosmic rays (Oulu neutron monitor)
                          Counting rate change (%)
                                                     10
                                                                                                                                                      Currently one sunspot on
                                                      0                                                                                               Sun, and GCRs high
                                                                                                                                                  •   Next sunspot cycle 24 is
                                                     -10
                                                                                                                                                      very late
                                                     -20                                                                                          •   Mean sunspot cycle length
                                                                    1980                     1990                 2000                   2010         is 11.1 yr
                                                                                                    Year
                                                                                                                                                  •   Length of cycle 23 is now
                                                             Total solar irradiance (World Radiation Center, Davos)                                   >13.1 yr
Solar Irradiance (Wm!2)




                            1368                                      cycle 21                cycle 22             cycle 23
                                                                                                                                  0.1%            •   Last time such a long cycle
                                                                                                                                                      occurred was cycle 4
                            1366                                                                                                                      (1784-1798) just before
                                                                                                                                                      the Dalton minimum -
                            1364
                                                                                                                                                      coincided with notable
                                                     1975           1980           1985      1990      1995       2000        2005       2010         cold period of few decades
                                                                                                    Year
                                                                                                                                                  •   We live in interesting
                   200                                                                                                                      200
                                                                                                                                                      times for the Sun...
 Sunspot number




                                                           Little Ice Age                         Dalton
                                                                                                 Minimum
                   100
                                                             Maunder Minimum
                                                                                                                                            100       (hopefully a blessing not a
                             0                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                      curse)
                             1600                            1650           1700      1750      1800       1850    1900        1950      2000
                                                                                                Year
                                                                                                                          25
IV. Physical mechanism

• GCRs/ionising radiation may affect cloud amount via:
  ‣ CCN number concentration, and/or
  ‣ ice particle formation in clouds



                          26
Radiative forcing from aerosols

                       cloud droplet
aerosol                   (CCN)




     scattering and              unperturbed cloud        1. increased cloud   2. increased cloud lifetime
      absorption of                                              albedo           (drizzle suppression)
     solar radiation


     “direct effect”                                                    “indirect effect”
                                                                      (more cloud droplets)   cloud droplet
                                                                                              (~10-20 m)


•   All cloud droplets form on aerosol “seeds” known as
    cloud condensation nuclei - CCN
•   Cloud properties are sensitive to number of droplets
•   More aerosols/CCN
    => brighter clouds, with longer lifetimes
                                                                                          cloud condensation
                                                                                             nucleus (CCN)
                                                                                               (~100 nm)
                                                     27
Seeds for cloud formation




                  contrails                      ship tracks off N.America

•   Aerosol particles = condensation seeds
•   Charged particles = condensation seeds
            (at very high supersaturations)
          +
              - + -   +
                      -   +
                              -   -
                                   +

•   Can cosmic rays, under natural conditions,
    influence aerosols, clouds and climate?
                                                   bubble chamber
                                          28
Possible mechanism
 •    Important source of cloud
      condensation nuclei is gas-to-particle                                                                           tion
                                                                                                                                        critical cluster




                                                                              ! Gibbs free energy
                                                                                                                   ora




                                                                                                                                                                  spo
      conversion:                                                                                               p             neutral           nucleation
                                                                                                               a
                                                                                                            ev                                  barrier




                                                                                                                                                                   nta
                                                                                                                              cluster

      trace gas → CN → CCN




                                                                                                                                                                    neo
                                                                                                    0




                                                                                                                                                                        us
                                                                                                              spo


 •
                                                                                                                  n




                                                                                                                                                                         gro
                                                                                                                     tan
      Ion-induced nucleation pathway is                                                                                 eou
                                                                                                                                sg




                                                                                                                                                                          wth
                                                                                                                                  row
                                                                                                                                     th
      energetically favoured but limited by                                                                                charged cluster
      the ion production rate and ion lifetime                                                          0                                  5                                   10
                                                                                                                               No. H2SO4 molecules

                                     0.3 nm                  1 nm                                                      100 nm                                > 10 µm
  galactic                                cluster          critical
  cosmic                                  ion              cluster
                                     H 2O        H 2O                 H 2O
   rays           H2SO4
                            HSO4¯
                                 H2SO4
                                           -       H2SO4
                                                             -        H2SO4
                                                                                                    -                                                         cloud
                    NO3¯                                                                                                   cloud                              droplet
                                                                                 aerosol                                   condensation
            O2¯                          neutral                 critical        particle,                                 nucleus, CCN
                                                                                   CN                                                                             H3O+
                                         cluster                 cluster
                              H 2O                                                                                                                         H 2O
ion pairs                                                                                                                                      H 2O
                              H2SO4                                                                                                                          SO42-
             N 2+

                           H3O+
                                                                 29
Is ion-induced nucleation globally important?
                                F. Yu et al., ACP 2008
                                Ratio of ion-induced nucleation rates to all primay aerosol sources
                                (dust, sea salt, black carbon, organic carbon) - for lowest 3km altitude

                                    .001 .01    .1   1    3    10   30   100 300 1000 10000




•   Modeling studies:
    ‣ Kazil et al.
        ACP 2006: “No”
    ‣ Pierce & Adams
        GRL 2009: “No”
    ‣ Yu et al.,
        ACP 2008: “Yes”
•   All modeling studies depend on uncertain experimental parameters
•   Atmospheric observations over land (boreal forest) suggest ~10-20% of new particles are
    ion-induced (Laakso et al, 2007), but alternative model interpretation of same dataset (Yu
    and Turco, 2008) find much higher fraction, ~80%
•   Ion-induced nucleation likely to be more important over oceans and at high altitudes
    (lower background aerosols, trace gas concentrations and temperatures) - but few
    measurements exist
                                                30
Aerosol production by solar cosmic rays
                                        Mironova et al, GRL 2008




                                                                          •
Aerosol Index (norm. variation)




                                                                               Solar proton event 20 Jan 2005 (GLE)
                                  highest SPE intensity sites (6 stars)
                                                                          •    TOMS satellite measurement of optical
                                                                               depth/Aerosol Index (AI)
                                                                          •    Increase of sulphate/nitrate aerosol
                                                                          •    Further satellite/LIDAR observations
                                                                               have been made of increased aerosol
                                                                               production in atmosphere due to
                                                                               ionising particles
                                                                          31
Cloud observations
•   Original GCR-cloud correlation made by Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997
•   Many studies since then supporting or disputing solar/GCR - cloud correlation
•   Not independent - most use the same ISCCP satellite cloud dataset
•   No firm conclusion yet - requires more data - but, if there is an effect, it is likely
    to be restricted to certain regions of globe and at certain altitudes & conditions
•   Eg. correlation (>90% sig.) of low cloud amount and solar UV/GCR,1984-2004:




                                                 Usoskin et al, GRL 2006
                                           32
Global electrical circuit
           ionosphere (>90 km altitude) +250 kV
           + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
                                                                      fair weather current                           fair weather
                                                                            ~ 2 pA m -2                              field
                 ~105 !
                 (fair weather                                    +         _                 bipolar ion-
                                 fair weather              _     _                            environment
                 value)                                                          +
                                                                +         +
                                 current
                                                    highly charged _      _                                          cloud-perturbed
               ~1400A            (J ~ 2.7 pA/m2)              +_
                                                       aerosols + +          + _+                                    field
                                                                                              region of net -
                                                              + _ + +_+ _ + +                 positive charge
                                                      +                      +
                                                            + + + ++ + + ++ + + +
                                                                 + + +
          + + + + +                                 +                   + + + + +
                                                                  charge accumulation         cloud layer
       thunderstorm                                                                           (low conductivity)
                                  ~200 ! 0.7 F                 ___ _    _ __              _
    current generators                              aerosol   _ _ _ _
                                                                 _      _                +
                                                                      + __                    region of net -
      (40 flashes /s)                               scavenging _ +    _
                                  " = RC ~2min                     _




                                                                                                                                    250 m
                                                                                              negative charge


                                                                                              bipolar ion-
                                                                                              environment

           surface                             0V                                                                  Electric field


•    Cosmic rays ionise atmosphere and control Earth-ionosphere conductivity
•    Large aerosol charges at cloud boundaries => unipolar space charge region
•    Can be entrained inside clouds and may affect:
     ‣ Rate of aerosol accretion by cloud droplets
     ‣ Ice particle formation
     ‣ Atmospheric dynamics
•    Largest ionisation in polar regions; many observations of cloud and T/P changes
     caused by Forbush decreases, solar disturbances, magnetic sector crossings...
                                                    33
V. CLOUD experiment at CERN




             34
CLOUD collaboration
                                    CLOUD Collaboration
                                    31 May 2009
                                    Austria:
                                    University of Innsbruck, Institute of Ion Physics and Applied Physics
                                    University of Vienna, Institute for Experimental Physics


        cloud                       Bulgaria:
                                    Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Sofia
                                    Estonia:
                                    University of Tartu, Department of Environmental Physics

•   19 institutes from Europe,      Finland:
                                    Helsinki Institute of Physics and University of Helsinki, Department of Physics
    Russia and USA                  Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki

•
                                    University of Kuopio, Department of Physics
    14 atmospheric institutes       Tampere University of Technology, Department of Physics
    + 5 space/CR/particle physics   Germany:

•
                                    Goethe-University of Frankfurt, Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
    CLOUD-ITN network of 10         Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig
    Marie Curie fellows: 8 PhD      Portugal:
                                    University of Lisbon, Department of Physics
    students + 2 postdocs
                                    Russia:
                                    Lebedev Physical Institute, Solar and Cosmic Ray Research Laboratory, Moscow
                                    Switzerland:
                                    CERN, Physics Department
                                    Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz (FHNW), Institute of Aerosol and Sensor Technology, Brugg
                                    Paul Scherrer Institute, Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry
                                    United Kingdom:
                                    University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
                                    University of Reading, Department of Meteorology
                                    Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Space Science Department
                                    United States:
                                    California Institute of Technology, Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering
                                                       35
Cloud observational scales
                                       observational scale

       1 nm             1 µm            1 mm               1m             1 km          1000 km

                                                                                  satellite
                         CLOUD                               ground/aircraft
                                                                               cloud system

                                                               cloud scale
                          laboratory
                    microphysical scale



molecule          CCN                  raindrop        cloud parcel
  /ion critical           cloud droplet
        cluster            /ice particle




                                                  36
CLOUD method
    P. Minginette
                    • aerosol chamber +
                        state-of-the-art
                        analysing instruments
                        in CERN PS beamline
                    •   laboratory expts. under
                        precisely controlled
                        conditions (T, trace
                        gases, aerosols, ions)
                    •   study aerosol
                        nucleation & growth;
                        and cloud droplet & ice
                        particle microphysics -
                        with and without beam

      37
CLOUD-06
  liq.N2   liq.O2          air
 dewar     dewar         mixing              SO2
 (500 l)   (500 l)       station


                              03 generator
    ultrapure air system
                               humidifier          electrostatic
                                                   precipitator
UV collimator          +HV (0-20kV)                    4kV
                                                                      condensation particle
                                                                      counter (CPC) battery
                                                                        scanning mobility
                                                                      particle sizer (SMPS)
                     2m aerosol chamber                                 atmospheric ion
                                                                       spectrometer(AIS)
                             sampling                               chemical ionisation mass
                               probes                              spectrometer (CIMS;H2SO4)

                                                                       Gerdien condenser
             field
             cage
                                                                       SO2, O3 analysers
                        HV electrode
                                                                          T, P, UV, H20
                                                                         measurements
                        -HV (0-20kV)
UV lamp
array (254nm)
                      beam hodoscope



                       3.5 GeV/c !+

•    Beam tests of pilot CLOUD experiment at CERN PS in Oct/Nov 2006
•    Aims:
     ‣ Technical input for CLOUD design
     ‣ First physics measurements (H2SO4 ion-induced nucleation)
                                                                                  38
Aerosol bursts
                                   Kulmala et al:
                                                                                                                                     Fiedler, Arnold, Kulmala et al, ACP 2005 (Hyytiälä, Finland)

                                                                                                                                         H2SO4 vapour                          aerosol no.
                                                                                                                                          concentration                        concentration
                                                                                                                                                                               (3-6 nm diameter)
                                                                                                                                        2000 /cm3
                                                                                                                                                                                        0.1 pptv
                                                                                                                                                                                         H2SO4




                                                                                                                                               90 min
                                                                                                                                                delay




                                                 CLOUD-06 measurements:
                                                                                                                             •   Bursts of aerosol particle
                                                                                                                                 production growing to CCN
                                                                                                                                 size in few hours observed


                                                                                                    log(dN/dlog(Dp) [cm ])
                                             AIS (-)
               Mobility diameter [nm]




                                        10                                                    3.5
                                                                                              3.0
                                                                                              2.5
                                                                                                                                 throughout troposphere
                                                                                                                             •
                                        1
                                                                                                                                 Associated with H2S04
                                                                                              2.0
                                             AIS (+)                                          1.5
                                        10                                                    1.0
                                                                                                                    -3
                                                                                                                                 production, but at very low
                   1                                                                                                             concentrations
                                                                                                                             •
               10000                                                                      CPC threshold
 Conc. [cm ]




                                                                                                                                 Not yet understood:
-3




                8000                                                                          3 nm
                6000                                                                          3 nm

                                                                                                                                 ‣ Extra vapours (NH3,VOC)?
                4000                                                                          5 nm
                2000                                                                          7 nm
                   0                                                                          9 nm
                                             0         2   4        6
                                                               Time [hr]
                                                                           8    10   12                                          ‣ Ion-induced nucleation?
                                                                                             39
Beam intensity
                                                                     CLOUD-06 results
                                 200
                                            run 35
     [kHz]




                                 100

                                   0                                                                                                                    0
                                                                                       8                                                           10
                                                                                   7       3




                                                                                                                     Nucleation rate, J3 [cm s ]
                                                                             5 6




                                                                                                                    -1
                                                                                               CPC threshold [nm]
                                                                         4                 3
Particle concentration [cm-3]




                                                                                                                                                    -1
                                6000                                                                                                               10




                                                                                                                    -3
                                                              2      3                                                                                                                  SO2 [ppb]
                                5000                                                                                                                -2                                      0.3-0.6
                                                      1                                    5                                                       10
                                4000                                                                                                                                                        1.5
                                                                                           7                                                                                                6
                                                                                                                                                    -3
                                3000                                                                                                               10
                                2000                                                       9                                                        -4
                                                                                                                                                   10
                                1000
                                                                                                                                                    -5
                                  0                                                                                                                10
                                       -8        -4         0        4       8                                                                              0   50       100      150       200       250
                                                          Time [h]
                                                                                                                                                                     Beam intensity [kHz]



              •                  Results of pilot CLOUD run:
                                 ‣ validated the basic experimental concept of CLOUD
                                 ‣ suggestive evidence for ion-induced nucleation of H2SO4-H2O under
                                    atmospheric conditions
                                 ‣ provided important technical input for CLOUD design
                                                                                               40
CLOUD-09 design requirements
•   Large chamber:
    ‣ Diffusion lifetime of aerosols/trace gases to walls ~L2
    ‣ Dilution lifetime of makeup gases ~L3
       => 3m chamber has typically 5-10 hr lifetimes
•   Ultra-clean conditions:
    ‣ Condensable vapours, eg. [H2SO4] ~0.1 pptv
    ‣ Ultrapure air supply from cryogenic liquids
    ‣ UHV procedures for inner surfaces, no plastics                                  50                                                     100




•   Temperature stability and wide T range                                            40                                                     80




                                                                   CPC 3010 [# cm ]
                                                                -3




                                                                                                                                                   CPC 3025 [# cm ]
                                                                                                                        3 nm CPC 3025
                                                                                      30                                7 nm CPC 3010        60

    ‣ 0.1oC stability                                                                 20                                                     40


    ‣ Fibre-optic UV system for photochemistry




                                                                                                                                                              -3
                                                                                      10                                                     20



    ‣ -90C → +100C range                                                               0                                                     0




                                                                                                                                                       Temperature [°C]
                                                                                                                                             27



•   Field cage up to 30 kV/m:                                                                                                                26



    ‣ Zero residual field
                                                                                                                                             25
                                                           40                         1.2




                                                                SO2 [ppb]
•                                               O3 [ppb]
                                                           30
                                                                                      0.8

    Particle beam                                          20                                                                                40




                                                                                                                                                   RH [%]
                                                                                      0.4
                                                           10                                                                                20
                                                           0                          0.0                                                    0

    ‣ Wide beam for ~uniform exposure                                                       0   4   8         12
                                                                                                        Time [hrs]
                                                                                                           Time [hrs]
                                                                                                                        16      20      24




•   Comprehensive analysers (measure “everything”, as for collider detectors...)
    ‣ Mass spectrometers for H2SO4, organics, aerosol composition
                                       41
CLOUD-09 chamber at CERN
          P. Minginette




              42
CLOUD plans
• 2009:
    ‣ commission CLOUD-09
    ‣ study H2SO4-H2O nucleation with and without beam
    ‣ reproducibility of nucleation events
    ‣ PTR-Mass Spect. to measure organics at 10 pptv level
    ‣ new ion-TOF Mass Spect. for ion characterisation
•   2010:
    ‣ commission thermal system (-90C → +100C)
    ‣ study H2SO4/water + volatile organic compounds with
      and without beam
    ‣ temperature dependence (effect of altitude)
•   2011-2013:
    ‣ extend studies to other trace vapours, and to cloud
      droplets & ice particles (adiabatic expansions in chamber)
                                43
Conclusions

• Climate has continually varied in the past, and the causes are
    not well understood - especially on the 100 year timescale
    relevant for today’s climate change
•   Strong evidence for solar-climate variability, but no established
    mechanism. A cosmic ray influence on clouds is a leading
    candidate
•   CLOUD at CERN aims to study and quantify the cosmic ray-
    cloud mechanism in a controlled laboratory experiment
•   The question of whether - and to what extent - the climate is
    influenced by solar/cosmic ray variability remains central to
    our understanding of anthropogenic climate change



                                  44

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Cosmic rays and climate jasper kirkby -cern - 4-6-2009

  • 1. Cosmic rays and climate Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009 1
  • 3. Climate forcings (IPCC 2007) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index .6 GISS Annual Mean .4 Temperature Anomaly (°C) 5-year Mean .2 .0 -.2 -.4 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 • 0.7oC rise since 1900 (not uniform) • IPCC findings: ‣ Total anthropogenic 1.6 W/m2 (≅ 1 candle per 25 m2) ‣ Negligible natural (solar) contribution: 0.12 W/m2 ‣ Clouds poorly understood 3
  • 4. Why clouds are important for climate change John Constable, Cloud study, 1821 • Clouds cover ~65% of globe, annual average • Net cooling of 30 W/m2 • c.f. 1.6 W/m2 total anthropogenic 4
  • 5. NASA CERES satellite • Data from CERES satellite (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System) • Clouds (and oceans) are poorly simulated in climate models (finest grid sizes ~100 km x 100 km) 5
  • 6. II. Evidence for pre-industrial solar-climate variability • Numerous palaeoclimatic reconstructions suggest that solar/GCR variability has an important influence on climate • However, there is no established physical mechanism, and so solar-climate variability is: ‣ Controversial subject ‣ Not included in current climate models 6
  • 7. Little Ice Age and the sunspot record The frozen Thames, 1677 200 200 Sunspot number Little Ice Age Dalton Minimum 100 100 Maunder Minimum 0 0 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year • Inactive sun (low sunspot peak, long cycle length) cold climate • Active sun (high sunspot peak, short cycle length) 7 warm climate
  • 8. 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Global climate - last 2000yr Greenland surface temperature (oC) a) Northern hemisphere temperature 0.4 Medieval Warm Little Ice Age Temperature anomaly ( C) o instrumental • -32 GRIP -31 -20.6 Dye 3 -19 Little Ice Age and 0 hockey stick -0.4 multi-proxy Medieval Warm Period • (tree rings, pollen, shells, stalagmites, etc.) Greenland boreholes (rhs) Global observations -0.8 worldwide boreholes b) Galactic cosmic rays 10Be (Greenland) high GCR flux cool climate GCR change (% from 1950 value) -10 14C (rh scale) (arb. scale) -20 Carbon-14 anomaly (x 10-3) low GCR flux warm climate 0 10 increasing GCR 0 20 Austrian speleothem: 30 10Be (South Pole) 320 20 CO2 (lh scale) CO2 (ppm) 40 290 c) Tropical Andes glaciers -10 -8.0 0 GCR Lake Mucubaji magnetic susceptibility (SI x10-6) !18O GCR/ 0 (‰) -7.5 "14C glacial advance 3 (‰) 10 1oC !18O 6 -7.0 Mangini et al., EPSL 235 (2005) 20 500 1000 1500 2000 Year (AD) 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year (AD) 8
  • 9. Siberian climate - last 700 yr • Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR variability and temperature in Siberia from glacial ice core • 30 yr lag (ie. ocean currents may be part of response) Eichler et al. GRL 36 (2009) Siberia temperature (oC) solar/GCR (rhs): 10Be 2 14C 4 Solar modulation 1 temperature (lhs) 2 (! units) 0 0 -1 -2 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Year 9
  • 10. N. Atlantic ice rafted debris - last 10 kyr (Holocene) Bond et al, Science 294, 2001 Cosmic rays: Ice-rafted debris (%): Low cosmic -0.4 GCR -4 Less ray flux (10Be) ice 0.0 0 ice-rafted debris 0.4 4 High cosmic More ray flux ice Little Ice Age Low cosmic -0.1 Medieval Warm -4 Less ray flux ice 0.0 0 haemetite-stained grains quartz grains 0.12 mm 0.1 GCR 4 High cosmic More ice-rafted debris (14C) ray flux ice 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Calendar age (kyr BP) Icelandic glass grains foraminifera • LIA is merely the most recent of 10 around 10 such events in Holocene
  • 11. GCR influence on ITCZ/monsoon in Little Ice Age? high GCR flux southerly ITCZ shift low GCR flux northerly ITCZ shift Drier in LIA Wetter in LIA ITCZ displacement D11 during LIA D7 July ITCZ D5 D8 D10 D13 D12 D6 D9 W0 Equator W2 January ITCZ W4 W3 W1 11
  • 12. Indian Ocean monsoon - 6.5-9.5 kyr ago U. Neff et al. (Nature 411, 2001) high a 14C (GCR intensity) dry 510 ± 30 1400 ± 30 GCR 10 3010 ± 60 3740 ± 130 –3.5 3790 ± 140 5 4380 ± 260 IT C Z O (‰ VPDB) –4.0 4370 ± 100 0 C (‰) 4900 ± 140 –5 –4.5 5750 ± 100 Jun-Aug 14 6540 ± 180 monsoons 18 –10 –5.0 6960 ± 50 7910 ± 210 8880 ± 90 8870 ± 230 –15 –5.5 low 9760 ± 150 10 cm 18 O (rainfall) 10,060 ± 210 GCR wet High pres s ure 10,470 ± 170 6.500 7.000 7.500 8.000 8.500 9.000 9.500 Age (kyr BP) high 10 dry b 14C (GCR intensity) GCR 5 • Solar/GCR forcing of Indian –4.0 0 –5 –4.5 O (‰ VPDB) Ocean monsoons (ITCZ C (‰) –10 migration) on centennial—even 14 –5.0 decadel—timescales 18 –15 –20 18 O (rainfall) low –5.5 GCR wet 7.900 8.000 8.100 8.200 8.300 Age (kyr BP) 12
  • 13. Solar-climate mechanisms • Candidates for Global mean temperature (0C) 0.15 solar-climate variability: 0.10 solar irradiance estimated forcing Lean et al. (1995) (MAGICC GCM) ‣ direct effect: 0.05 ✦ total solar irradiance 0 -0.05 Lean et al. (2002) ✦ solar UV -0.10 ‣ indirect effect: 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year ✦ galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) /ionising particles • Can be resolved in principle since GCRs are, in addition to 11-year solar cycle, modulated by: ‣ solar magnetic disturbances (esp. high latitude effects) ‣ geomagnetic field (low latitude effects) ‣ galactic environment 13
  • 14. Asian monsoon and geomagnetic field East Asian monsoon instensity; Wang et al., Nature 451, 2008 440 Monsoon intensity –12 N. Hemisphere summer 2! U-Th dating errors 18 O (‰, VPDB) insolation (W m-2) –11 420 –10 400 –9 380 –8 –7 360 Sanbao/Hulu caves, China 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Age (kyr BP) Knudsen & Riisager, GSA 2009 Geomagnetic dipole moment (1021Am2) 0.4 monsoon intensity –7.0 120 residuals for last 5000yr 20 geomagnetic field Asian monsoon Summer insolation, 30N (W m-2) dipole moment (1021Am2) 460 0.2 (± 2! band) (‰ VPDB) –7.4 10 100 18 O (‰ VPDB) 0.0 –7.8 470 0 summer 80 monsoon intensity 18O –8.2 insolation –0.2 geomagnetic field 480 –10 Asian monsoon –8.6 60 –0.4 (Dongge Cave, China) –20 490 r (0–5000 BP) = 0.86 r (0–5000 BP) = 0.71 –9.0 40 –0.6 –30 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Age (yr B.P.) Age (yr B.P.) • Asian monsoon controlled by orbital insolation - with strong millennial-scale variability • Possible influence of geomagnetic field on Asian monsoon? • Opposite sign of effect: lower B field → increased GCR → increased monsoon intensity, which could result from latitudinal differences of solar- and geomagnetic modulations 14
  • 15. Galactic modulation of climate? - 500 Myr CO2 GCR icehouse greenhouse Shaviv & Veizer, GSA Today, 2003 • Orbital period of Sun/Earth around Milky Way ~550Myr • High GCR flux in spiral arms => 140 Myr period • Same period and phase found in benthic sea temperature (4oC amplitude) and ice age epochs (icehouse/greenhouse) 15
  • 16. III. Solar variability in the 20th century 16
  • 17. Sun (photosphere) seen in visible (677nm) at solar max (2001) NASA/ESA SOHO 17
  • 18. Sun (corona) seen with extreme UV eyes (20nm) NASA/ESA SOHO 18
  • 19. Cosmic ray changes during 20th century 0 galactic cosmic solar magnetic flux Lebedev balloon GCR data: Solar magnetic flux (x1014 Wb) rays 3.5 5 a) Murmansk 1.6 10 10Be concentration (x104 g-1) 3.0 Cosmic ray intensity (cm-2s-1) Mirny 1.2 15 0.8 2.5 Moscow 0.4 10Be (GCR) weaker solar 2.0 modulation at low latitudes, 0 due to geomagnetic shielding 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Alma-Ata • 1.5 Solar open magnetic flux increased by x2.3 in 20th century • b) GCR net decrease by ~20% 200 Sunpot number (mostly in 1st half of century) 100 • Largely only solar cycle variations 0 cycle 19 cycle 20 cycle 21 cycle 22 cycle 23 of GCR flux in 2nd half 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 19
  • 20. Sea-level change in 20th century Year 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 8 sea-level rate: 9 stations sunspot number Holgate, GRL (2007) 177 stations <TOPEX 150 6 satellite> Rate of sea level change (mm/yr) 200 Cumulative sea level change (mm) Sunspot number (smoothed) 4 150 100 2 100 50 50 0 0 0 -2 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year -4 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year (decade mid-point) • Steady rise of sea-level; mean rate = 1.7 mm/yr • No increase in rate during recent decades • Thermal expansion of oceans (mainly) + land ice melting • Rate of sea-level rise is strongly modulated solar modulation? (but solar irradiance variation is too small) 20
  • 22. Recent global temperatures - last 30 yr 1.0 1.0 surface temperatures; thermometers 0.8 (Hadley and GISS) 0.8 Temperature anomaly (oC) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 -0.2 -0.2 tropospheric temperatures; -0.4 satellite microwaves (UAH) -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year • Most of ~2 yr fluctuations due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (eg 1997-98) + volcanoes (El Chichon 1982, Pinatubo 1991) • Satellite and radiosonde (tropospheric) data show ‣ less warming than thermometer measurements of surface ‣ no enhanced upper tropospheric warming, expected from GHG • Mean global temperatures flat over last 8 years. Cause not known but CO2 increasing, so must be natural forcing 22
  • 23. Pacific Decadel Oscillation • PDO (Hare 1996) is similar to ENSO (temperature anomalies and surface winds), except for long (30 yr) periodicity and primary effect on Pacific NW • PDO transitions coincide with gradient changes of global temperatures • PDO may be shifting to negative phase 23
  • 24. Sunspot weakening Livingston and Penn, National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ "Sunspots may vanish by 2015", submitted 2005 (rejected for publication) Livingston and Penn, 2005 example measurements: Sunspot magnetic field (G) 3000 0.0 Normalised central depth Fe 1564.8 magnetic spliting 0.1 CN 2500 OH 0.2 2015 Fe I 1564.8 0.3 2000 Jan 2002 0.4 Jun 1991 OH minimum B field for visible sunspots 0.5 1500 OH 1565.3 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Year ! Wavelength (+1564 nm) 1.0 (Sunspot / photospheric) intensity Sunspot contrast ‣ Temperature-sensitive molecular lines (1.0 = invisible) 0.9 ‣ Zeeman splitting of Fe I line 0.8 2014 ‣ Continuum brightness of sunspot umbrae • Sunspot umbrae warming at 45K /yr 0.7 • Sunspot magnetic fields decreasing at 77 G/yr 0.6 • Independent of sunspot cycle 2000 2005 2010 2015 • Linear extrapolation sunspots vanish after Year 2015 (like Maunder Minimum) 24
  • 25. Current very low solar activity • Galactic cosmic rays (Oulu neutron monitor) Counting rate change (%) 10 Currently one sunspot on 0 Sun, and GCRs high • Next sunspot cycle 24 is -10 very late -20 • Mean sunspot cycle length 1980 1990 2000 2010 is 11.1 yr Year • Length of cycle 23 is now Total solar irradiance (World Radiation Center, Davos) >13.1 yr Solar Irradiance (Wm!2) 1368 cycle 21 cycle 22 cycle 23 0.1% • Last time such a long cycle occurred was cycle 4 1366 (1784-1798) just before the Dalton minimum - 1364 coincided with notable 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 cold period of few decades Year • We live in interesting 200 200 times for the Sun... Sunspot number Little Ice Age Dalton Minimum 100 Maunder Minimum 100 (hopefully a blessing not a 0 0 curse) 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year 25
  • 26. IV. Physical mechanism • GCRs/ionising radiation may affect cloud amount via: ‣ CCN number concentration, and/or ‣ ice particle formation in clouds 26
  • 27. Radiative forcing from aerosols cloud droplet aerosol (CCN) scattering and unperturbed cloud 1. increased cloud 2. increased cloud lifetime absorption of albedo (drizzle suppression) solar radiation “direct effect” “indirect effect” (more cloud droplets) cloud droplet (~10-20 m) • All cloud droplets form on aerosol “seeds” known as cloud condensation nuclei - CCN • Cloud properties are sensitive to number of droplets • More aerosols/CCN => brighter clouds, with longer lifetimes cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) (~100 nm) 27
  • 28. Seeds for cloud formation contrails ship tracks off N.America • Aerosol particles = condensation seeds • Charged particles = condensation seeds (at very high supersaturations) + - + - + - + - - + • Can cosmic rays, under natural conditions, influence aerosols, clouds and climate? bubble chamber 28
  • 29. Possible mechanism • Important source of cloud condensation nuclei is gas-to-particle tion critical cluster ! Gibbs free energy ora spo conversion: p neutral nucleation a ev barrier nta cluster trace gas → CN → CCN neo 0 us spo • n gro tan Ion-induced nucleation pathway is eou sg wth row th energetically favoured but limited by charged cluster the ion production rate and ion lifetime 0 5 10 No. H2SO4 molecules 0.3 nm 1 nm 100 nm > 10 µm galactic cluster critical cosmic ion cluster H 2O H 2O H 2O rays H2SO4 HSO4¯ H2SO4 - H2SO4 - H2SO4 - cloud NO3¯ cloud droplet aerosol condensation O2¯ neutral critical particle, nucleus, CCN CN H3O+ cluster cluster H 2O H 2O ion pairs H 2O H2SO4 SO42- N 2+ H3O+ 29
  • 30. Is ion-induced nucleation globally important? F. Yu et al., ACP 2008 Ratio of ion-induced nucleation rates to all primay aerosol sources (dust, sea salt, black carbon, organic carbon) - for lowest 3km altitude .001 .01 .1 1 3 10 30 100 300 1000 10000 • Modeling studies: ‣ Kazil et al. ACP 2006: “No” ‣ Pierce & Adams GRL 2009: “No” ‣ Yu et al., ACP 2008: “Yes” • All modeling studies depend on uncertain experimental parameters • Atmospheric observations over land (boreal forest) suggest ~10-20% of new particles are ion-induced (Laakso et al, 2007), but alternative model interpretation of same dataset (Yu and Turco, 2008) find much higher fraction, ~80% • Ion-induced nucleation likely to be more important over oceans and at high altitudes (lower background aerosols, trace gas concentrations and temperatures) - but few measurements exist 30
  • 31. Aerosol production by solar cosmic rays Mironova et al, GRL 2008 • Aerosol Index (norm. variation) Solar proton event 20 Jan 2005 (GLE) highest SPE intensity sites (6 stars) • TOMS satellite measurement of optical depth/Aerosol Index (AI) • Increase of sulphate/nitrate aerosol • Further satellite/LIDAR observations have been made of increased aerosol production in atmosphere due to ionising particles 31
  • 32. Cloud observations • Original GCR-cloud correlation made by Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997 • Many studies since then supporting or disputing solar/GCR - cloud correlation • Not independent - most use the same ISCCP satellite cloud dataset • No firm conclusion yet - requires more data - but, if there is an effect, it is likely to be restricted to certain regions of globe and at certain altitudes & conditions • Eg. correlation (>90% sig.) of low cloud amount and solar UV/GCR,1984-2004: Usoskin et al, GRL 2006 32
  • 33. Global electrical circuit ionosphere (>90 km altitude) +250 kV + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + fair weather current fair weather ~ 2 pA m -2 field ~105 ! (fair weather + _ bipolar ion- fair weather _ _ environment value) + + + current highly charged _ _ cloud-perturbed ~1400A (J ~ 2.7 pA/m2) +_ aerosols + + + _+ field region of net - + _ + +_+ _ + + positive charge + + + + + ++ + + ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + charge accumulation cloud layer thunderstorm (low conductivity) ~200 ! 0.7 F ___ _ _ __ _ current generators aerosol _ _ _ _ _ _ + + __ region of net - (40 flashes /s) scavenging _ + _ " = RC ~2min _ 250 m negative charge bipolar ion- environment surface 0V Electric field • Cosmic rays ionise atmosphere and control Earth-ionosphere conductivity • Large aerosol charges at cloud boundaries => unipolar space charge region • Can be entrained inside clouds and may affect: ‣ Rate of aerosol accretion by cloud droplets ‣ Ice particle formation ‣ Atmospheric dynamics • Largest ionisation in polar regions; many observations of cloud and T/P changes caused by Forbush decreases, solar disturbances, magnetic sector crossings... 33
  • 34. V. CLOUD experiment at CERN 34
  • 35. CLOUD collaboration CLOUD Collaboration 31 May 2009 Austria: University of Innsbruck, Institute of Ion Physics and Applied Physics University of Vienna, Institute for Experimental Physics cloud Bulgaria: Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Sofia Estonia: University of Tartu, Department of Environmental Physics • 19 institutes from Europe, Finland: Helsinki Institute of Physics and University of Helsinki, Department of Physics Russia and USA Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki • University of Kuopio, Department of Physics 14 atmospheric institutes Tampere University of Technology, Department of Physics + 5 space/CR/particle physics Germany: • Goethe-University of Frankfurt, Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences CLOUD-ITN network of 10 Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig Marie Curie fellows: 8 PhD Portugal: University of Lisbon, Department of Physics students + 2 postdocs Russia: Lebedev Physical Institute, Solar and Cosmic Ray Research Laboratory, Moscow Switzerland: CERN, Physics Department Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz (FHNW), Institute of Aerosol and Sensor Technology, Brugg Paul Scherrer Institute, Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry United Kingdom: University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment University of Reading, Department of Meteorology Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Space Science Department United States: California Institute of Technology, Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering 35
  • 36. Cloud observational scales observational scale 1 nm 1 µm 1 mm 1m 1 km 1000 km satellite CLOUD ground/aircraft cloud system cloud scale laboratory microphysical scale molecule CCN raindrop cloud parcel /ion critical cloud droplet cluster /ice particle 36
  • 37. CLOUD method P. Minginette • aerosol chamber + state-of-the-art analysing instruments in CERN PS beamline • laboratory expts. under precisely controlled conditions (T, trace gases, aerosols, ions) • study aerosol nucleation & growth; and cloud droplet & ice particle microphysics - with and without beam 37
  • 38. CLOUD-06 liq.N2 liq.O2 air dewar dewar mixing SO2 (500 l) (500 l) station 03 generator ultrapure air system humidifier electrostatic precipitator UV collimator +HV (0-20kV) 4kV condensation particle counter (CPC) battery scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) 2m aerosol chamber atmospheric ion spectrometer(AIS) sampling chemical ionisation mass probes spectrometer (CIMS;H2SO4) Gerdien condenser field cage SO2, O3 analysers HV electrode T, P, UV, H20 measurements -HV (0-20kV) UV lamp array (254nm) beam hodoscope 3.5 GeV/c !+ • Beam tests of pilot CLOUD experiment at CERN PS in Oct/Nov 2006 • Aims: ‣ Technical input for CLOUD design ‣ First physics measurements (H2SO4 ion-induced nucleation) 38
  • 39. Aerosol bursts Kulmala et al: Fiedler, Arnold, Kulmala et al, ACP 2005 (Hyytiälä, Finland) H2SO4 vapour aerosol no. concentration concentration (3-6 nm diameter) 2000 /cm3 0.1 pptv H2SO4 90 min delay CLOUD-06 measurements: • Bursts of aerosol particle production growing to CCN size in few hours observed log(dN/dlog(Dp) [cm ]) AIS (-) Mobility diameter [nm] 10 3.5 3.0 2.5 throughout troposphere • 1 Associated with H2S04 2.0 AIS (+) 1.5 10 1.0 -3 production, but at very low 1 concentrations • 10000 CPC threshold Conc. [cm ] Not yet understood: -3 8000 3 nm 6000 3 nm ‣ Extra vapours (NH3,VOC)? 4000 5 nm 2000 7 nm 0 9 nm 0 2 4 6 Time [hr] 8 10 12 ‣ Ion-induced nucleation? 39
  • 40. Beam intensity CLOUD-06 results 200 run 35 [kHz] 100 0 0 8 10 7 3 Nucleation rate, J3 [cm s ] 5 6 -1 CPC threshold [nm] 4 3 Particle concentration [cm-3] -1 6000 10 -3 2 3 SO2 [ppb] 5000 -2 0.3-0.6 1 5 10 4000 1.5 7 6 -3 3000 10 2000 9 -4 10 1000 -5 0 10 -8 -4 0 4 8 0 50 100 150 200 250 Time [h] Beam intensity [kHz] • Results of pilot CLOUD run: ‣ validated the basic experimental concept of CLOUD ‣ suggestive evidence for ion-induced nucleation of H2SO4-H2O under atmospheric conditions ‣ provided important technical input for CLOUD design 40
  • 41. CLOUD-09 design requirements • Large chamber: ‣ Diffusion lifetime of aerosols/trace gases to walls ~L2 ‣ Dilution lifetime of makeup gases ~L3 => 3m chamber has typically 5-10 hr lifetimes • Ultra-clean conditions: ‣ Condensable vapours, eg. [H2SO4] ~0.1 pptv ‣ Ultrapure air supply from cryogenic liquids ‣ UHV procedures for inner surfaces, no plastics 50 100 • Temperature stability and wide T range 40 80 CPC 3010 [# cm ] -3 CPC 3025 [# cm ] 3 nm CPC 3025 30 7 nm CPC 3010 60 ‣ 0.1oC stability 20 40 ‣ Fibre-optic UV system for photochemistry -3 10 20 ‣ -90C → +100C range 0 0 Temperature [°C] 27 • Field cage up to 30 kV/m: 26 ‣ Zero residual field 25 40 1.2 SO2 [ppb] • O3 [ppb] 30 0.8 Particle beam 20 40 RH [%] 0.4 10 20 0 0.0 0 ‣ Wide beam for ~uniform exposure 0 4 8 12 Time [hrs] Time [hrs] 16 20 24 • Comprehensive analysers (measure “everything”, as for collider detectors...) ‣ Mass spectrometers for H2SO4, organics, aerosol composition 41
  • 42. CLOUD-09 chamber at CERN P. Minginette 42
  • 43. CLOUD plans • 2009: ‣ commission CLOUD-09 ‣ study H2SO4-H2O nucleation with and without beam ‣ reproducibility of nucleation events ‣ PTR-Mass Spect. to measure organics at 10 pptv level ‣ new ion-TOF Mass Spect. for ion characterisation • 2010: ‣ commission thermal system (-90C → +100C) ‣ study H2SO4/water + volatile organic compounds with and without beam ‣ temperature dependence (effect of altitude) • 2011-2013: ‣ extend studies to other trace vapours, and to cloud droplets & ice particles (adiabatic expansions in chamber) 43
  • 44. Conclusions • Climate has continually varied in the past, and the causes are not well understood - especially on the 100 year timescale relevant for today’s climate change • Strong evidence for solar-climate variability, but no established mechanism. A cosmic ray influence on clouds is a leading candidate • CLOUD at CERN aims to study and quantify the cosmic ray- cloud mechanism in a controlled laboratory experiment • The question of whether - and to what extent - the climate is influenced by solar/cosmic ray variability remains central to our understanding of anthropogenic climate change 44