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Ton Dekkers
IWSM – Ankara – October 25th 2013

NEtherlands Software Metrics users Association
Ton Dekkers - Roles
 Netherlands Software Metrics Association (NESMA)
President

 International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG)
Past President

 Common Software Measurement International Consortium (COSMIC)
International Advisory Committee

 Dutch Association of Cost Engineers (DACE)
WG Parametric Estimation
Estimation concepts
Most common techniques
 Extrapolation from Actuals
 Expert Opinion

Southgate Pedestrian Bridge, Melbourne
Cost Estimating
 The process of collecting and analyzing historical data and applying

quantitative models, techniques, tools, and databases to predict the
future cost of an item, product, program, or task

Purpose of cost estimating:
 Translate system/functional requirements associated with programs,

projects, proposals, or processes into budget requirements
 Determine and communicate a realistic view of the likely cost (effort,
schedule) outcome, which can form the basis of the plan for executing
the work
A Bridge to the Future

Historical
data

Estimate
Time
now

Source: ICEAA training
Cost Estimation Techniques
 Analogy

 Build-Up

 Parametric
Parametric Estimating - Process
 Collect Data
Relevant, Reliable

NOW: CEBoK
Cost Engineering
Body of Knowledge

 Normalise Data
Cost level, activity level

 Determine correlations
 Validate correlations
R2 > 0.8 is useable

 Adjust Data Set when necessary

 Define CER/EER
 Estimate the new object

2012
ISPA & SCEA
are merged into
ICEAA
www.iceaaonline.org
About
• Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering - International

• A not-for-profit organisation
• Recommended Practices

17R-97: Cost Estimate Classification System
34R-05: Basis of Estimate
40R-08: Contingency Estimating: General Principles
42R-08: Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating

• Certification

Certified Cost Consultant™ (CCC™)
Certified Cost Engineer™ (CCE™)
Certified Estimating Professional™ (CEP™)

• www.aacei.org
Simplified Estimation Model
size

risk analysis

productivity
risks
gross hours
measures
influences

consequences
hours
(& money)
Size
 Basis of Estimate
 Quantity Metrics: excavation and backfill quantities, concrete volumes, piping

quantities, ...
These may be organized by facilities, process train or manufacturing unit.

 Basis of Estimate – Software Services
 Requirements: number of use cases, number of backlog items, ...
 Functional size: Function points

Measurement methods: IFPUG, NESMA, COSMIC, FiSMA, …
 Technical size: (source) lines of code, number of interfaces, modules, …
 Service size: number of incidents, tickets, users, locations, …
These may include expected error range, level of accuracy and method of
‘measuring’ (e.g. detailed, extrapolated, estimated, derived)
Basis of Estimate for Software Services
General
aspects
Basis
Risk
Mitigation
Quality
Mapping to NESMA interest areas
Sizing Basis
Requirements
Functional
technical

Effort Basis
delivery
constraints, service
levels

Planning Basis
Working time
standby

Cost Basis
methods and
sources , units

Benchmarking
Comparisons to
similar
engagements
The Tax System Case Study
Basis of Estimate in Practice
Good
H
A
L
na
L
A
H

Poor
Conclusions from supplier perspective
 Estimation (validation)
Consistent structure (e.g. Basis of Estimate)
Embedded process

 Benchmarking
Validation Estimate / Proposal
Historical data (Internal/External)

 Metrification
Consistent approach
Auditable calculations (e.g. tool-based)

 Management & Control
Metrification (direct data collection)
Re-estimation (reflecting direct data)
Risk Control
Estimation : The next level
Frank Vogelezang
IWSM – Ankara – October 25th 2013

NEtherlands Software Metrics users Association
The next level and beyond
 Widening the scope from sizing, to cost drivers, through

cost estimation relations to estimating, project control
and historical benchmark data.
 In cooperation with others like ISBSG, MAIN, DACE, PMI
 Products that can be of interest outside the
Netherlands will be made available in English
 Active working groups with short cycles to deliver
 Estimation Measurement Standards

 Estimating Packaged Software
 COSMIC Approximation
I hope to see you next year

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Estimating Software Costs and Effort with Parametric Models

  • 1. Ton Dekkers IWSM – Ankara – October 25th 2013 NEtherlands Software Metrics users Association
  • 2. Ton Dekkers - Roles  Netherlands Software Metrics Association (NESMA) President  International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG) Past President  Common Software Measurement International Consortium (COSMIC) International Advisory Committee  Dutch Association of Cost Engineers (DACE) WG Parametric Estimation
  • 3. Estimation concepts Most common techniques  Extrapolation from Actuals  Expert Opinion Southgate Pedestrian Bridge, Melbourne
  • 4. Cost Estimating  The process of collecting and analyzing historical data and applying quantitative models, techniques, tools, and databases to predict the future cost of an item, product, program, or task Purpose of cost estimating:  Translate system/functional requirements associated with programs, projects, proposals, or processes into budget requirements  Determine and communicate a realistic view of the likely cost (effort, schedule) outcome, which can form the basis of the plan for executing the work
  • 5. A Bridge to the Future Historical data Estimate Time now Source: ICEAA training
  • 6. Cost Estimation Techniques  Analogy  Build-Up  Parametric
  • 7. Parametric Estimating - Process  Collect Data Relevant, Reliable NOW: CEBoK Cost Engineering Body of Knowledge  Normalise Data Cost level, activity level  Determine correlations  Validate correlations R2 > 0.8 is useable  Adjust Data Set when necessary  Define CER/EER  Estimate the new object 2012 ISPA & SCEA are merged into ICEAA www.iceaaonline.org
  • 8. About • Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering - International • A not-for-profit organisation • Recommended Practices 17R-97: Cost Estimate Classification System 34R-05: Basis of Estimate 40R-08: Contingency Estimating: General Principles 42R-08: Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating • Certification Certified Cost Consultant™ (CCC™) Certified Cost Engineer™ (CCE™) Certified Estimating Professional™ (CEP™) • www.aacei.org
  • 9. Simplified Estimation Model size risk analysis productivity risks gross hours measures influences consequences hours (& money)
  • 10. Size  Basis of Estimate  Quantity Metrics: excavation and backfill quantities, concrete volumes, piping quantities, ... These may be organized by facilities, process train or manufacturing unit.  Basis of Estimate – Software Services  Requirements: number of use cases, number of backlog items, ...  Functional size: Function points Measurement methods: IFPUG, NESMA, COSMIC, FiSMA, …  Technical size: (source) lines of code, number of interfaces, modules, …  Service size: number of incidents, tickets, users, locations, … These may include expected error range, level of accuracy and method of ‘measuring’ (e.g. detailed, extrapolated, estimated, derived)
  • 11. Basis of Estimate for Software Services General aspects Basis Risk Mitigation Quality
  • 12. Mapping to NESMA interest areas Sizing Basis Requirements Functional technical Effort Basis delivery constraints, service levels Planning Basis Working time standby Cost Basis methods and sources , units Benchmarking Comparisons to similar engagements
  • 13. The Tax System Case Study
  • 14. Basis of Estimate in Practice Good H A L na L A H Poor
  • 15. Conclusions from supplier perspective  Estimation (validation) Consistent structure (e.g. Basis of Estimate) Embedded process  Benchmarking Validation Estimate / Proposal Historical data (Internal/External)  Metrification Consistent approach Auditable calculations (e.g. tool-based)  Management & Control Metrification (direct data collection) Re-estimation (reflecting direct data) Risk Control
  • 16. Estimation : The next level
  • 17. Frank Vogelezang IWSM – Ankara – October 25th 2013 NEtherlands Software Metrics users Association
  • 18. The next level and beyond  Widening the scope from sizing, to cost drivers, through cost estimation relations to estimating, project control and historical benchmark data.  In cooperation with others like ISBSG, MAIN, DACE, PMI  Products that can be of interest outside the Netherlands will be made available in English  Active working groups with short cycles to deliver  Estimation Measurement Standards  Estimating Packaged Software  COSMIC Approximation
  • 19. I hope to see you next year