This document discusses opportunities for international collaboration on understanding climate change. It outlines key issues including the need for open data exchange, the many potential partners across nations and agencies, balancing scope and continuity of observations, determining collaborative mission structures, and coordinating roles. International cooperation is essential given the global nature and societal impacts of climate change.

1. New Opportunities – International Collaboration
Understanding Climate Change
Jean-Louis FELLOUS
Executive Director
Committee on Space Research
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 1

2. Observing climate and climate change
 Climate observation present daunting challenges
 Detecting global temperature trends of 0.1° per decade, or
variations in solar constant of 0.1% over the same period of time,
or global sea level rise of a few mm per year
 Characteristics of a global climate observing system
 Climate-quality measurements should be taken with accurate,
calibrated instruments, converted into geophysical data, quality-
controlled and stored in standard format. Data sets should be
precise enough for the early detection of trends over the next
decade, homogeneous in location, time and method,
uninterrupted and long enough to resolve decadal trends, and
with sufficient coverage and resolution to permit a description of
spatial and temporal patterns of change.
 Current observing systems are far for being adequate
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 2

3. Advances in observing techniques
 Progress in satellite techniques (e.g., electronics
miniaturisation, antenna design, communication rates,
microwave radar techniques, stability of oscillators,
detector sensitivity, etc.) have led to the development of
active sensors and of smaller/better/cheaper satellites,
providing huge amount of all-weather observations with
ever-increasing resolution in space and time.
 Progress also affected ground-based (in situ) observing
systems, computing capabilities and numerical models.
 Space-based measurements can give access (uniquely
in some cases) to a wide range of climate variables
relating to the atmosphere, ocean and land domains
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 3

4. Challenges and opportunities in building a
global climate observing system
 Financial and geographic challenges
 Necessary international cooperation and coordination
 Compatibility challenge
 Combining data from different systems with varying
original purposes and diverse data collection,
processing and storage schemes
 Knowledge and innovation challenges
 New capabilities from R&D space agencies
 Continuity challenge
 Once their value has been established, these
capabilities need to transition into ongoing,
“operational” capabilities.
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 4

5. “Crossing the Valley of Death”
 In a report to the U.S. National Research
Council, a group of experts have
compared the challenge of bridging the
gap between research and operations to
“crossing the Valley of Death.”
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 5

6. Four major issues
1. Observations of climate change
 Which are the key observations that require space-
based observations?
2. Understanding climate change
 Which are the key parameters that we do not
observe sufficiently well today?
3. Modeling and forecasting
 Which are the observable parameters required by
models?
4. Mitigating the consequences of climate change
 What is the role of space observations?
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 6

7. Global observation needs for climate
 The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was
established in 1992 to address climate-related issues
 Over the years GCOS has published Adequacy Reports and a
10-year Implementation Plan to resolve the inadequacies
 The COP-10 (10th Conference of the Parties to the
United nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change) adopted in December 2004 the following
“Decision on research and Systematic Observation”:
 “Invites Parties that support space agencies involved in global
observations to request these agencies to provide a coordinated
response to the needs expressed in the GCOS Implementation
Plan”
 The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)
presented its response to COP-12 in November 2006
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 7

8. 1. Do we know what needs to be
observed and how?
 “Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal, as is
now evident from observations
of increases in global average
air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow
and ice, and rising global
average sea level.”
(From IPCC AR4,
Summary for Policy-makers)
 A large fraction of climate
change observations now
come from space-based
systems.
Source: IPCC AR4
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 8

9. Global Average Sea Level Rise:
1.3 mm/yr from 1960 to 2003
Altimetry Satellites
3,2 mm/yr
Holgate and Woodworth, 2004
1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr (1960 à 2000)
Church et al., 2004, 2006
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 9

10. Arctic Sea Ice Extent Decline
from microwave imagery – 1979-2009
Source: NSIDC
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 10

11. Yes, requirements have been carefully
stated by GCOS…
Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-
based Products for Climate
Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation
Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC
(GCOS-92)”
**************************************************
GCOS Secretariat
GCOS-107
WMO/TD No. 1338 September 2006
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 11

12. … and space agencies are well aware
of the GCOS requirements
CEOS Response to the GCOS Implementation Plan – September 2006
Satellite Observation of the Climate
System
The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Response
to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Implementation
Plan (IP)
Developed by CEOS and submitted to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Subsidiary Body on Scientific
and Technical Advice (SBSTA) on behalf of CEOS by the United States of
America (USA) delegation
Visit http://www.ceos.org for the full report
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 12

13. Do we miss something?
The space component of the World Weather Watch in 2006
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 13

14. Atmospheric Essential Climate
Variables, status as of mid-2006
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 14

15. Terrestrial Essential Climate Variables,
status as of mid-2006
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 15

16. Oceanic Climate Variables, status as
of mid-2006
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 16

17. Ocean Surface Topography Constellation Roadmap
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Medium accuracy SSH from high-inclination sun-synchronous orbit
GFO US HY-2A China HY-2B, -2C, -2D
Saral/AltiKa India/France
ERS-2 ESA
ENVISAT ESA Sentinel-3A Europe Sentinel-3B, -3C, -3D
CRYOSAT-2 ESA
Swath altimetry from high-inclination orbit (several orbit options)
SWOT/WaTER-HM USA/Europe
Orbit to be assessed Jason-CS successor Europe/US
High accuracy SSH from mid-inclination orbit
Jason-1 Fr./USA Jason-3 Europe/USA
Jason-2 Europe/USA Jason-Continuity Series Europe/USA
In orbit Approved Planned/Pending approval Needed
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 17

18. Yes, we mostly miss continuity !
Pending
Jason-3
decision
Situation
improved
thanks to
decisions
on ESA
Sentinels
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 18

19. Press release – February 2, 2010
 Global sea level rise monitoring secured for next decade
 The transatlantic Jason-3 Program has now been approved by
EUMETSAT Member States (…).
 Nineteen EUMETSAT Member States have agreed to subscribe
to the Jason-3 ocean altimetry satellite program: Belgium, Croatia,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Together, these
countries are prepared to contribute €63.6 million (at 2009 economic
conditions) to the €252-million program cost of Jason-3.
 The Jason-3 program is led by EUMETSAT and the US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition,
the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), the French
space agency, is making a significant in-kind contribution to the
program (…). The US National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA), in conjunction with the three other
partners, will support science team activities.
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 19

20. GEOSS – The Global Earth
Observation System of Systems
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 20

21. CEOS Virtual Constellations for GEO
 New implementation framework
 To inspire and facilitate commitments aimed at
harmonizing and sustaining observations within
CEOS members in support of GEO and GEOSS
 Four Initial Prototype Constellations
 Land Surface Imaging
 Ocean Surface Topography
 Global Precipitation Mission
 Atmospheric Composition
 New Constellations
 Ocean Surface Wind Vector
 Ocean Color Radiometry
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 21

22. Land Surface Imaging Constellation
Forest Carbon Tracking Project
TERRA
IRS
LANDSAT
RESOURCESAT
Landsat acquisition over Borneo
ALOS
SAC-C
CBERS
SPOT
ALOS 50 m mosaic over Borneo
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 22

23. The Global Precipitation Constellation
… and the French-Indian MEGHA-
TROPIQUES satellite to be placed in
20° inclination orbit in 2010
The Global Precipitation Mission will
include a rain radar and several passive
microwave radiometers in polar-orbit …
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 23

24. The Atmospheric Chemistry
Constellation
Five of the six missions from the A-Train are already in orbit providing
coordinated atmospheric composition measurements
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 24

25. The European Space Agency
Sentinels Program
Sentinel 1 – Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)
All weather imagery, interferometry, polar regions
Sentinel 2 – Super-spectral optical imagery
Continuity of Landsat, Spot & Vegetation data
Sentinel 3 – Ocean monitoring
Ocean color, sea surface temperature and sea
surface topography
Sentinel 4 – Atmospheric Monitoring from GEO
Atmospheric composition, transboundary
pollution
Sentinel 5 – Atmospheric Monitoring from LEO
Atmospheric composition
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 25

26. 2. Some major uncertainties in climate
change understanding
 Clouds and aerosols A-Train
 Polar ice balance CryoSat-2
 Ocean natural variability vs. trends Jason +
Goce
 GHG sources/sinks Gosat/Ibuki, (OCO-2 ?)
 … and more
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 26

27. 3. Space observations and decadal
predictions (after Trenberth, 2009)
 Initialization
 Ocean, sea ice, land processes. Requires observations
 Forward integration of the coupled model
 The external forcing by greenhouse gases is prescribed.
 Ensemble generation
 To give probabilistic nature
 Calibration of model output
 Because of deficiencies in the component models the coupled
model output needs calibration.
 Verification of results and skill assessment
 A priori knowledge of the quality of the forecast
is required based on past performance.
Requires observations
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 27

28. 4. Many space observations of climate
change impacts, e.g., sea level rise…
Altimetry Satellites
3,2 mm/yr
Holgate and Woodworth, 2004
1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr (1960 à 2000)
Church et al., 2004, 2006
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 28

29. … or Arctic sea ice decline…
Source: NSIDC
Source: ESA/Envisat
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 29

30. … are there, but do we take these
warnings seriously enough?
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 30

31. New Opportunities:
International Collaboration –
Understanding Climate Change
Michael H. Freilich
10 February 2009

32. OVERARCHING PRINCIPLES and OBJECTIVES
• The Earth is an integral, complex system
– Many processes, with varying time and spatial scales
– Quantitatively describing the interactions between
processes is key
• Measurements must span all important variables, and all
important scales
• Research leads to greater understanding, which is codified
in numerical models – prediction
• Societal benefits result when understanding is combined
with measurements so that useful information products
are generated and actually used
• The problem of understanding and predicting climate
change is too large for any single agency or even any
single nation – efficient , effective collaborations are
2
essential

33. OUTLINE
• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications
• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration
– Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange
– Plethora of potential partners
o Many nations
o Research and operational agencies
– Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity
– Collaborative missions or collaborative programs?
o Differences in program structures and approaches
between different international space agencies
– Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entities
o CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ...
– Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership
visibility
3

34. Earth Science Division Overview
• Overarching goal: to advance Earth System science, including climate
studies, through spaceborne data acquisition, research and analysis, and
predictive modeling
• Six major activities:
• Building and operating Earth observing satellite missions, many with
international and interagency partners
• Making high-quality data products available to the broad science
community
• Conducting and sponsoring cutting-edge research
– Field campaigns to complement satellite measurements
– Analyses of non-NASA mission data
– Modeling
• Applied Science
• Developing technologies to improve Earth observation capabilities
• Education and Public Outreach
• NASA’s Earth Science Program is unique: Space program with a
comprehensive, broad-based research and applications element,
and a research science/applications program with expertise and 4
access to space

35. NASA Operating Missions – January 2010
OSTM/Jason 2
X
X
5

36. NASA Operating Missions – International Collaborations
OSTM/Jason 2
X
X
6

37. International A-Train (end of CY2010)

38. CloudSat and Calipso in the A-Train
Vega
CALIPSO track;
CloudSat track
CALIOP laser
Taken at 5/28/09, 3am local, 6 sec exposure; track visible because satellites illuminated while
surface still in darkness 8
8

39. OUTLINE
• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications
• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration
– Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange
– Plethora of potential partners
o Many nations
o Research and operational agencies
– Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity
– Collaborative missions or collaborative programs?
o Differences in program structures and approaches
between different international space agencies
– Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entities
o CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ...
– Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership
visibility
9

40. FOUNDATIONAL PRINCIPLES OF
EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS
• The Earth is an integral, complex system
– Many processes, with varying time and spatial scales
– Quantitatively describing the interactions between processes is key
– Measurements must span all important variables and all important scales
– Open, timely data exchange/availability is essential
• Understanding the integrated system requires coupled, coordinated activities
(“end-to-end” approach)
– Measurements are important but not sufficient
– Research combines measurements, develops understanding
– Models codify knowledge, extend data, and can be used for prediction
when coupled with measurements
– Open, timely data exchange/availability is essential
• Societal benefits result from useful information products based on research
– Accurate, focused, timely
– Predictably available
– Understandable (product + user)
10

41. Data Sharing/Availability Policy
• NASA commits to the full and open sharing of Earth science data obtained from NASA
Earth observing satellites, sub-orbital platforms and field campaigns with all users as soon
as such data become available.
• NASA recognizes no period of exclusive access to NASA Earth science data.
• NASA makes available all NASA-generated standard products along with the source code
for algorithm software, coefficients, and ancillary data used to generate these products.
• All NASA Earth science missions, projects, and grants and cooperative agreements include
data management plans to facilitate the implementation of these data principles.
• NASA enforces a principle of non-discriminatory data access so that all users will be treated
equally. For data products supplied from an international partner or another agency, NASA
restricts access only to the extent required by the appropriate MOU.
• NASA charges for distribution of data are no more than the cost of dissemination (OMB
Circular A-130).
• NASA promotes an open data sharing policy in national and international fora including GEO
and US GEO. NASA is vice-chair of the CEOS Strategic Implementation Team, and is also a
contributing member of the Interagency Working Group on Digital Data.
11
http://nasascience.nasa.gov/earth-science/earth-science-data-centers/data-and-information-policy

42. OUTLINE
• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications
• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration
– Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange
– Plethora of potential partners
o Many nations
o Research and operational agencies
– Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity
– Collaborative missions or collaborative programs?
o Differences in program structures and approaches
between different international space agencies
– Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entities
o CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ...
– Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership
visibility
12

43. Diverse Range of Potential Partners/Participants
• In contrast with Space Science (Planetary, Astrophysics),
many different agencies/nations, with differing resources
and aspirations, have the desire and the capability (and
accomplishments) to contribute to Earth observations from
space
– NASA, ESA, JAXA, CSA, CNES, CONAE, Korea, ISRO,
Brazil, Thailand, ASI, …
• Interests and foci often overlap or compete
• Sampling considerations can justify some coordinated
multiple measurements of the same quantity, but
unnecessary duplication or low quality is not helpful
• Data product quality, transparency, and timeliness often
vary between research vs. “operational” organizations
13

44. OUTLINE
• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications
• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration
– Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange
– Plethora of potential partners
o Many nations
o Research and operational agencies
– Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity
– Collaborative missions or collaborative programs?
o Differences in program structures and approaches
between different international space agencies
– Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entities
o CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ...
– Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership
visibility
14

45. Joint Missions, or Collaborative Programs?
• Joint missions are typical collaborations
– Multiple contributions of hardware and services to a single
mission
– Both research and operational organizations
– Must manage for schedule to be successful
• Collaborative programs involve complementary missions
divided among agencies
– More common among operational agencies (NOAA does PM
polar met orbit, EUMETSAT covers mid-morning; GEO met
sats, etc.)
– Absolutely requires transparent, full data exchange
• Mission selection/definition approaches must be compatible
– Mission vision/definition (e.g. Decadal Survey) vs.
competitive mission focus selection (e.g. Earth Explorer,
Venture-Class)
15

46. Decadal Survey Missions Next Generation
VENTURE-CLASS
16

47. NASA Operating Missions – International Collaborations
OSTM/Jason 2
X
X
17

48. BACKUP
18