The Research staff analyzes the week's key data releases and tell you what they mean for you and your business.

1. Week of October 25–October 29, 2010
Produced by NAR Research

2. Weekly Economic Forecast
Indicator Updated
Forecast
Past Week’s
Forecast
Directional
Shift
GDP 2010 Q4: 2.6% 1.7% ↑
GDP 2011 Q1: 2.5% 2.7% ↓
GDP 2011 Q@: 2.2% 2.6% ↓
Unemployment rate by mid-
2011:
9.5% 9.8% ↓
Average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate by mid-2011:
4.9% 4.5% ↑
NAR's monthly official forecast as of October 4
Produced by NAR Research

3. Monday, 10/25/10
• Existing Home Sales data for
September was released today,
and showed a strong gain. To
read the press release, click here >
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

4. Tuesday, 10/26/10
• The S&P/Case-Shiller home price
index was released this morning.
The index showed a decline in both
the 10-city and 20-city composite
indexes from July to August, but
both indexes remain higher than
their levels from the same time last
year. The 10-city index was up 2.6%
over the 12 months ending in
August of 2010, while the 20-city
index was up 1.7% over the same
period.
• Twelve of the cities in the 20-city
index posted a decline in prices over
the 12-month period ending in
August. Most of the cities that
remain positive were among the
first cities to enter the housing
slump, including Los Angeles,
Boston, San Diego, and San
Francisco. Washington, DC is also
up compared to a year earlier at
4.8%.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

5. Wednesday, 10/27/10
• Mortgage purchase applications
were up 3.9 percent for the week
ending October 22nd
. Purchase
applications do not take into
consideration cash buyers who
according to the August
REALTORS® Confidence Index
make up as much as 28 percent of
transactions.
• Mortgage purchase applications
were down 30.8 percent from the
same week a year ago.
• The government portion of the
index (FHA loans) was up 4.4
percent. New FHA regulations
went into place at the beginning
of the month.
• Refinances, which made up 82.3
percent of mortgage activity, were
up 3.0 percent as mortgage rates
fell to 4.25 percent on a 30-year
fixed mortgage.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

6. Wednesday, 10/27/10 (cont’d)
• New Home Sales were up 6.6
percent in September to an annual
pace of 307,000, yet still remain very
weak historically.
• The median price increased slightly
to $223,800.
• Months’ supply of new homes fell to
8.0.
• Sales in the Midwest rose over 60
percent, while sales in the West fell
almost 10 percent.
• New orders for durable goods
increased 3.3 percent in September;
however, the report was weak
excluding the boost in the demand
for commercial aircrafts.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

7. Thursday, 10/28/10
• New jobless claims data for week
ending October 23 show a significant
improvement in the job market, above
all expectations. There were 21,000
fewer claims bringing the total claims
down to 434,000.The 4-week moving
average also decreased by 5,500 to
453,250. Dropping below 400,000 would
suggest more jobs are being created
than terminated. As a result, the
unemployment rate for workers with
unemployment insurance decreased 0.1
percentage point from the prior week's
3.6 percent. The number of continuing
claims also dropped significantly, by
122,000 to 4,356,000. The 4-week
moving average decreased by 38,500.
• The largest decrease in new claims was
in California, primarily in service
industry, followed by North Carolina,
New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
Puerto Rico had the largest increase in
new claims, followed by Minnesota,
Wisconsin, Florida, and Alabama.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research

8. Friday, 10/29/10
• Third quarter GDP expanded at a 2.0
percent annualized pace, following a 1.7
percent increase the in the second quarter.
This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of
real GDP growth.
• Gains were seen in inventory investment,
consumer spending, equipment investment,
and government purchases. The highest
gain was in personal consumption
expenditures (PCEs). PCEs were the
strongest since late 2006.
• However, the economy remains soft as it is
below the 3 percent historical average and
much below the 4 to 5 percent that would
be expected coming out of the recession.
The unemployment rate will remained
elevated near 10 percent for a while.
• Consumer sentiment fell to 67.7. There will
not be any meaningful increase until the
economy improves vigorously.
• Usually after an election, consumer
sentiment rises. The majority of people got
their desired result. As a result, there could
be an improvement in the next month’s
data.
Economic Updates
Produced by NAR Research