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Credit risk of UAE banks,[object Object],Supervised By: Dr. Hussein Al-Tamimi,[object Object],Student Name: MorshedAbdulqaderParkook,[object Object]
Credit RISK analysis: an empirical study OF UAE BANKS  ,[object Object]
Research Methodology,[object Object],The purpose of the study,[object Object],     The purpose of the study is to analyze the significance of some credit factors generally considered important by credit analysis,[object Object],The Scope of the study,[object Object],      The study focuses on credit risk assessment in a representative selection of UAE banks and corporations.,[object Object],Sources of data,[object Object],      Data were obtained from banks and corporations financial reports (report of condition and income statement),[object Object],Hypotheses of the study,[object Object],      In this study I predict that there is a really strong relationship between corporate financial performance and credit risk banks may get in if the lend to the wrong borrower.  ,[object Object]
Credit Risk,[object Object],Credit risk: is the oldest form of risk in the financial markets. If credit can be defined as “nothing but the expectation of a sum of money within some limited time,” then credit risk is the chance that this expectation will not be met. ,[object Object],Types: ,[object Object],A consumer or business does not make a payment due on a mortgage loan, credit card.,[object Object],A business does not pay a A/R (invoices) when due.,[object Object],A business does not pay an employee's earned wages when due.,[object Object],A business or government bond issuer does not make a payment on a coupon or principal payment when due.,[object Object],An insolvent insurance company does not pay a policy obligation,[object Object],An insolvent bank won't return funds to a depositor. (FDIC !),[object Object]
Credit risk management,[object Object],Credit risk is defined as the risk arising because borrowers may default on their obligations. Or The probability that some financial institution assets, especially its loans, will decline in value and perhaps become worthless (toxic assets),[object Object],The concept of adverse selection and moral hazard provide a frame work for understanding the principals that financial institution managers must follow to minimize credit risk and make successful loans.,[object Object]
Principals Of Managing Credit Risk,[object Object],Screening and monitoring ,[object Object],prime lending (credibility),[object Object],Long-term customer relationships,[object Object],Loan commitments,[object Object],Collateral,[object Object],Compensating balances,[object Object],Credit rationing,[object Object]
Credit risk analysis methods3 Questions,[object Object],Is the borrower creditworthy? The 5Cs of credit: ,[object Object],Character,[object Object],Capacity,[object Object],Cash ,[object Object],Collateral,[object Object],Conditions,[object Object]
Continue ,[object Object],Can the loan agreement be properly structured and documented?,[object Object],Can the lender perfect its claim against the borrower’s earnings and any assets that may be pledged as collateral?,[object Object],Collateral and popular assets pledged ,[object Object]
Factors determining the growth and mix of loans,[object Object],The profile of characteristics of the market area that lenders serves,[object Object],Lender size ,[object Object],The experience and expertise  of lenders officers,[object Object],The expected yield that each loan offers ,[object Object],Rules & Regulations (UAE real estate, and other rules),[object Object]
Empirical Analysis,[object Object],Credit Risk of UAE banks,[object Object]
Banks Credit risk analysis,[object Object]
Corporation's Credit risk analysis,[object Object],common size statement ,[object Object]
Corporation's Credit risk analysis,[object Object],Common Size Statements Ratios->,[object Object]
Cross sectional analysis ,[object Object],Liquidity ratios : ,[object Object],Current ratio,[object Object],Quick ratio,[object Object],Efficiency ratios,[object Object],The inventory turnover ratio,[object Object],The average collection period,[object Object],Number of days for which inventory is tied up,[object Object],Profitability ratios: ,[object Object],Gross profit/ sales,[object Object],Net profit/ sales,[object Object],Leverage ratio,[object Object],Debt/ equity ratio,[object Object],Interest coverage ratio,[object Object]
Ratio Analysis,[object Object]
Continue Cross sectional analysis ,[object Object]
Empirical finding ,[object Object],If you remember the previous findings, we mentioned that the best two are Surooh and Etisalat. In this section we found that the best firm is also Etisalat in addition to Abu Dhabi Ship Building Company. And the worse one is Tabreed. ,[object Object]
(Altman) Z-score,[object Object],The Z-score formula for predicting bankruptcy was published in 1968 by Edward I. Altman. The formula may be used to predict the probability that a firm will go into bankruptcywithin two years. ,[object Object],Z-scores are used to predict corporate defaults and an easy-to-calculate control measure for the financial distress status of companies in academic studies. ,[object Object],The Z-score uses multiple corporate income and balance sheet valuesto measure the financial health of a company.,[object Object]
(Altman) Z-score,[object Object],if (Z< 1.81) the firm will default. If Z (1.81:2.675), the firm will either default or not. If (Z> 2.675), the firm will not default.,[object Object]
Empirical finding,[object Object]
Risk Premium analyzing,[object Object],The higher the rate of return will lead to higher the probability of default and high credit risk for lender points of view.,[object Object],Keep in mind also that factors other than credit risk also affect the premium. Financial market participants often mention liquidity of a debt issue as being important for the premium. ,[object Object]
Beta ,[object Object],Beta is a relative measure of the systematic return of the stock to the overall market. Stocks with Betas greater than 1.0 are highly volatile and have a positive correlation with the market; such stocks are termed aggressive securities. Stocks with Betas less than 1.0 are either more stable than the average or have a low correlation with the market or both (defensive securities). ,[object Object],Stocks with a negative Beta move in the direction opposite to that of the market. ,[object Object]
Empirical finding Remember the higher the Beta the higher is the risk.,[object Object]
Conclusions,[object Object],Our finding showed to us that the best firms are: Etisalat, Surooh and Abu Dhabi Ship Building. The worst firm only is Tabreed. ,[object Object],Regarding the banks, we showed that Citibank and HSBC are the lowest credit risk encountered banks.,[object Object],(Business credit instrument and derivatives, business credit insurance, Credit default swap. )  ,[object Object],Recovery and real-estate issue .,[object Object],(See http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20110501055100/Is_Dubai_Back) ,[object Object],No FDIC !,[object Object]

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