Audio http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/events/Mitch%20Silber%20Audio.mp3

2. The Al Qaeda Factor: Plots Against the West
• Tradebom Plot (World Trade Center, New York, 1993)
• Millennium Plot (Los Angeles, 1999)
• 9/11 Planes Plot (New York, Washington DC, Shanksville, PA 2001)
• Shoe Bombers’ Plot (Paris–Miami, 2001)
• The Lackawanna Cluster (Lackawanna, NY 2002)
• Operation Rhyme (London, 2004)
• Operation Crevice (London, 2004)
• Madrid Train System (March 11, 2004)
• Hofstad Group Plots (Netherlands, 2004–5)
• Operation Theseus (London, July 7, 2005)
• Operation Vivace (London, July 21, 2005)
• Operation Pendennis (Australia, 2005)
• Operation Osage (Toronto, 2006)
• Operation Overt (United Kingdom–United States, 2006)
• Operation Dagger (Copenhagen, 2007)
• Operation Highrise (New York, 2009)

3. The Al Qaeda Factor: Plots Against the West
Unique Research Sources:
• Legal documents (discovery material; trial transcripts, government reports)
• Self reports (terrorist documents, interviews & testimony)
• Media reporting (comprehensive, cross-checked, chronological analysis)
• Consultation with law enforcement agencies & security services

4. Joining Al Qaeda
A local, organic, bottom-up process
 The Scene  Overseas Travel
 Was there any al Qaeda role in  Did al Qaeda find the Westerners
the formation of the scene? or did they find al Qaeda?
 The Cluster  Plot Conception
 Did al Qaeda create or assign  Did al Qaeda suggest, endorse or
roles in the cluster? provide detailed instructions?
 Connecting to al Qaeda  Plot Launch
 Did al Qaeda send emissaries to  Did al Qaeda’s Chief of External
the West to radicalize and Operations have a role in the
recruit? plot?

5. The Operational Cycle
Acts in Furtherance of the Plot
 Target Selection  Logistics
 Did al Qaeda choose the  Did al Qaeda fund the
targets? operation?
 Casing of Targets  Weaponization
 Did al Qaeda recon the targets?  Did al Qaeda provide the
weapons or instructions?
 Communications
 Were the conspirators in contact
with al Qaeda?

6. Anatomy of an Al Qaeda Plot
LeT
LeT JeM
Al Qaeda
HuM
Operational Cycle
The Cluster
Politicization • Communication
of Beliefs • Target Selection
• Casing
Reactionary • Logistics
Islam
• Weaponization
The Scene

7. Plot Origins

8. The Scene and Counterculture
Reactionary Islam Politicization of Beliefs
• Literal interpretation of Islam • West at war with Islam (Af/Pak, Iraq…)
• Democracy and Islam not compatible • Islamic lands invaded by US and allies
• Believers vs. Unbelievers • Islamic political action: Hizb ut Tahrir,
• Return to the Caliphate (Utopia) Al Muhajiroun, Rev Muslim, ITS, MB
• Salafis and Tablighi • Anti-war protests
certain mosques
The Scene private locations
ideologue
universities
online community

9. Londonistan 2004-2006
Muslim Education Centre
(Markaz u Dawa)
Masjid-e-Umar
The Scene
Waltham Forest
College
Anti-war protests Islamic Medical Association
London Metro University

10. From the Scene to the Cluster
Rejecting the Scene
• Action is necessary to remedy situation • Private meetings (bookstore, apartments…)
• Protest activity and politics ineffective • Guilt about living comfortably in West
• Spin-off from scene with trusted associates • Desire to take action – train, fight overseas
The Scene private locations
The Cluster

11. Lackawanna, New York 2001
Rejecting the Scene
• Action is necessary to remedy situation • Private meetings (bookstore, apartments…)
• Protest activity and politics ineffective • Guilt about living comfortably in West
• Spin-off from scene with trusted associates • Desire to take action – train, fight overseas
The Scene private locations
The Cluster

12. Travel Overseas to Southwest Asia
the fixer
 FIGHT JIHAD OVERSEAS
 PARAMILITARY TRAINING
 SKILL DEVELOPMENT
 PROVIDE SUPPLIES
 SANCTION/DIRECTION

13. July 7, 2005 Bombers
the fixer
Para-military
Training
HuM
2001
2003
Al Qaeda
2004/2005

14. Overseas Travel and Al Qaeda Link Up
LeT JeM
Al Qaeda
Chief of al Qaeda External Operations
“do something for the
HuM cause back in London”
Para-military
Training “we have a specific
mission for you”
the “link man”
the fixer

15. Shoe Bombers and LAX Millennium Plot
LeT JeM
Al Qaeda
Chief of al Qaeda External Operations
“do something for the
HuM cause”
Para-military
Training “we have a specific
mission for you”
the “link man”
the fixer

16. Al Qaeda Plot Typology
Command & Control Suggested/Endorsed Inspired
 Individuals met with  Individuals met with  Individuals did not
someone of rank within someone of rank within meet someone of
al Qaeda, or their al Qaeda, or their rank within al
representative in representative in Qaeda , or their
Afghanistan or Pakistan Afghanistan or Pakistan representative
 AQ assigned them a  AQ provided a  AQ did not provide
specific mission suggestion/endorsement direct suggestion or
conceptualized by AQ to do something endorsement
 Specific guidance  General guidance  No guidance on
provided on means, provided on means, means, timing, and
timing, and targets timing, and targets targets
 Ongoing communication  Sporadic communication  No communication

17. Al Qaeda Plot Typology
Command & Control Suggested/Endorsed Inspired
 9/11 Planes Plot  Millennium Plot (LAX)  Tradebom Plot
 (1993)
 Shoe Bombers Plot  Operative Rhyme (US/UK)
 Madrid Train System
 Operation Overt  Operation Crevice (UK)
 Transatlantic Liquid  Hofstad Plots
Bomb Plot  Operation Theseus (7/7)  (Netherlands)
 Operation Vivace (7/21)  Operation Pendennis
 (Australia)
 Operation Dagger
 Operation Osage
 Operation Highrise (NYC)  (Toronto 18)

18. Anatomy of a Cluster/Conspiracy
The Active Core
The Periphery
The Followers

19. The Toronto 18
ideologue
The Active Core
The Followers The Periphery

20. Plot Progression
Operational Cycle Al Qaeda
• Communication
• Target Selection “link man”
• Casing
• Logistics
communication
• Weaponization

21. 2009 Zazi NYC Subway Plot
Operational Cycle Al Qaeda
• Communication
• Target Selection “link man”
• Casing
• Logistics
communication
• Weaponization

22. Where is the Center of Gravity for the plots?
LeT
LeT JeM
Al Qaeda
HuM
Operational Cycle
The Cluster
Politicization • Communication
of Beliefs • Target Selection
• Casing
Reactionary • Logistics
Islam
• Weaponization
The Scene

23. Al Qaeda Threat 2001-2004
2011
AQ Ideology
Abu Sayyaf
Al Qaeda
Jemaah
Islamiyah
AQI
AQ Ideology

24. Al Qaeda Threat 2004-2011
2001- 2004 2011
AQ Ideology
AQIM
LeT
TTP
homegrown
Al Qaeda
AQI
AQAP
AQAP
JeM Al Shabab

25. The Overall Threat Now
Al Qaeda Al Qaeda Affiliates Al Qaeda
Core and Allies Inspired
AQAP LeT homegrown
Al Qaeda
TTP
JeM AQIM
Al Shabab
RADICALIZED IN THE WEST
North America, Western Europe, Australia

26. The Al Qaeda Factor: Plots Against the West
Key Judgments:
• Al Qaeda Core’s actual role in plots against the West has been overstated.
• Much more of the “action of the conspiracies” has taken place in the West, by
Westerners, independent of Al Qaeda.
• Al Qaeda has not actively recruited in the West; rather the plots are underpinned
by a “bottom-up” process, driven by individuals in the West who radicalize and
then take the initiative to go overseas for training or to get into the fight.
• Al Qaeda has been opportunistic, taking advantage of the Westerners who have
shown up on its doorstep to utilize them in plots against the West.
• Post Bin Laden, given the combination of Westerners who continue to
radicalize/mobilize plus the rise of other important nodes in al Qaeda’s
worldwide network of allies and affiliates, the threat from al Qaeda type
terrorism has not ended.