1. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Demographic Trends and the Future of
Migration in the European Union
Philippe Fargues
Executive Training on Migration in the EU and its
Neighbouhood
Florence, 21 January 2013
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 1

2. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Three challenges
1. Demographic size of Europe
2. Europe’s labour force, production and
welfare
3. Low fertility, high immigration and
identity
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 2

3. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Fig.1: Total population of the European Union
1952-2010 and projection 2010-2050
700
600
EU
500
Population (million)
27 MS
400
USA
300
200
100
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Author's calculation based on UN Population Data Online
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 3

4. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Table 1: Population growth of the European Union 1952-
2010
In 1952 178
Total population (millions)
In 2010 498
Enlargement 248
Population increase
Demography* 72
(millions)
Total 319
* Natural population increase + migration balance
Source: UN Population Online
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 4

5. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Fig.2: Population of the European Union in
percentage of world population 1952-2050
16,0%
14,0%
12,0%
10,0%
8,0%
"EU"
6,0%
4,0% 27 MS
2,0%
0,0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Author's calculation based on UN Population Data Online
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 5

6. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Fig. 3: Population of Europe and Africa in
percentage of world population 1900-2050
25%
20%
Europe Africa
15%
10%
5%
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Source: UN Population Data Online
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 6

7. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Table 2: Expected population gains and losses between 2010 and 2050 by age
groups
B Migration continues at
Future migration A Migration stops as of 2010
current levels
Scenario 1: No further enlargement of the EU
Change 2010-2050 Absolute Relative Absolute Relative
0-20 -22 -27% -8 -10%
20-65 -93 -27% -39 -12%
Age group
65+ 57 65% 62 71%
Total -58 -11% 15 3%
Scenario 2: Entry of Croatia, Iceland, Macedonia and Turkey in the EU
Change 2010-2050 Absolute Relative Absolute Relative
0-20 2 3% 16 20%
20-65 -33 -10% 21 6%
Age group
65+ 76 88% 81 94%
Total 45 9% 118 23%
Source: Autor's calculation based on EUROSTAT and UN Population Data Online
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 7

8. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Fig.5: Old age dependency ratio 1952-2050
70%
60%
50%
Population 65+ / 20-65
27 MS
40%
30%
20% World
10%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Author's calculation based on UN Population Data Online
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 8

9. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Figure 8: EU Workforce Ageing - No-Migration Scenario
2010- 2030 (Eurostat data)
75.0
P
o 70.0
p
u M 65.0
Population
l i aged 60-69
a l
60.0
t l
i i Population
55.0
o o aged 25-34
n n
50.0
i
45.0
n
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 9

10. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Fig.6: Age at retirement necessary to maintain
old age dependency ratios at 2010 level
80
75
Age in years
27 MS
70
65
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Author's calculation based on EUROSTAT projections
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 10

11. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Fig. 7: Stocks of new migrants required to maintain in 2020
and 2030 the size of the working age population at 2010 level
Million migrants
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
2020
20.0 2030
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Netherlands
Greece
Romania
Cyprus
Denmark
Malta
Austria
Portugal
Spain
United Kingdom
Total EU-27
Slovenia
Lithuania
Finland
Latvia
Belgium
Hungary
Czech Republic
Poland
Ireland
Sweden
Italy
Estonia
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Germany
Luxembourg
France
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 11

12. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Fig; 9: Percentage Non-Western in Western European Populations
According to Ethnic Projections 2000-2050
25
England
20
Germany
Netherlands
15
Norway
10
Denmark
5
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Source: Coleman, 2006
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 12

13. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Fig. 10: Population of the Netherlands by Origin and Age
1st January 2009
90 to 95
80 to 85
70 to 75
60 to 65
Age Group
50 to 55
40 to 45
30 to 35
20 to 25
10 to 15
0 to 5
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1
Non-western foreign background Dutch background
Source: Statistics Netherlands - http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/default.aspx?LA=EN
www.eui.eu/RSCAS 13