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Disrupting Class:
   How Disruptive Innovation Will Change
        the Way the World Learns



                 Michael B. Horn
                  May 14, 2009
             mhorn@innosightinstitute.org


5/22/2009       Copyright Clayton M. Christensen   1
Sustaining and Disruptive Innovations


                          Incumbents nearly always win
Performance




                                                                           Time

              5/22/2009                 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen          2
Disruptive Innovations create asymmetric competition

                                    Incumbents nearly always win




                      Performance
                                                                         60% on
                                                                         $500,000


                                             45% on
                                             $250,000
    Of Performance
  Different measure




                                                                                        Time


                                                40%     20%
                                                on $2,000



                      Entrants nearly always win                            Time


5/22/2009                             Copyright Clayton M. Christensen              3
Disruption in business models has been the dominant
historical mechanism for making things more affordable and
                         accessible
 Yesterday              Today                              Tomorrow:
 • Ford                 • Toyota                           • Chery
 • Dept. Stores         • Wal-Mart                         • Internet retail
 • Digital Eqpt.        • Dell                             • RIM Blackberry
 • Delta                • Southwest Airlines               • Air taxis
 • JP Morgan            • Fidelity                         • ETFs
 • Xerox                • Canon                            • Zink
 • IBM                  • Microsoft                        • Linux
 • Cullinet             • Oracle                           • Salesforce.com
 • AT&T                 • Cingular                         • Skype
 • State universities   • Community colleges               • Online universities
 • Sony DiskMan         • Apple iPod                       • Cell Phones
 5/22/2009              Copyright Clayton M. Christensen                  4
Expensive failure results when disruption is framed in
  technological rather than business model terms
                                                                            Tabletop Radios,
                                                                             Floor-standing




                           Performance
                                                                                  TVs




                                                                               Path taken by
    Of Performance
  Different measure




                                                                               vacuum tube
                                                                              manufacturers


                                                                                           Time
                                                     Portable TVs
                                Pocket radios
                Hearing aids

                                                                               Time


5/22/2009                                Copyright Clayton M. Christensen              5
The right product architecture
depends upon the basis of competition
                  IBM Mainframes, Microsoft Windows
    Performance




                  Compete by improving
                     functionality &
                        reliability




                                                                     Compete by improving
                                                                     speed, responsiveness
                                                                     and customization


                                                              Dell PCs, Linux
                                                                            Time
5/22/2009                         Copyright Clayton M. Christensen                      6
Insights from examining education through
         the lenses of this research
1. Conflicting mandates in the way we teach vs. the way
   we learn
2. Computers have failed to make a difference because
   we have crammed them into conventional classrooms
   •   They must initially be deployed against non-consumption
3. Individualized, computer-based instruction requires a
     disruptive distribution model
4. Separation is critical. Chartered schools should be seen
     as heavyweight teams, not disruptive competitors
5. We have imposed disruption on our schools three times
     in recent history by moving the goalposts – the metrics
     of improvement.
6. 5/22/2009
     Education research has notM. Christensen the way forward 7
                       Copyright Clayton
                                         shown
We all learn differently
• Multiple intelligences                          • Talents
   – Linguistic, Mathematical, Kinesthetic              – “Giftedness” is fluid
• Motivations/interests                           • Aptitudes
• Learning Styles                                 • Different paces
   – Visual, aural, playful, deliberate                 – Fast, medium, slow
• Depends on subject/domain                       • Ongoing cognitive
• Research in practice                              science research
   – Scientific Learning                                – fMRI scans
   – Universal Design for Learning/CAST
   – K12, Inc.



  5/22/2009               Copyright Clayton M. Christensen                        8
Conflicting mandates in the way we must teach
                            vs.
                The way students must learn
  Interdependencies in the                                                Need for customization for
   teaching infrastructure                                                differences in how we learn




                                                                            Multiple Intelligences




                                                                                                                       Paces of Learning
                                  Standardization !!


                                                       Customization !!




                                                                                                     Learning Styles
Temporal
Lateral
Physical
Hierarchical



    5/22/2009                Copyright Clayton M. Christensen                                                                              9
Historically, most schools have “crammed” computer-based
                 learning into the blue space
                                                  Core



                       Performance
                                              curriculum



                                                                             Path taken by
     Of Performance
   Different measure




                                                                            most schools,
                                                                          foundations and
                                                                        education software
                                                                                companies

                                                                                        Time




                                                                           Time


 5/22/2009                           Copyright Clayton M. Christensen              10
Prime examples of non-consumption
• Credit recovery                         •   Tutoring
• Drop-outs                               •   Professional development
• Advanced Placement and                  •   Pre-K
  other advanced courses                  •   After school
• Scheduling conflicts                    •   In the home
• Home-schooled and                       •   Incarcerated youth
  homebound students                      •   In-school suspension
• Small, rural, and urban                 •   School bus commute
  schools

            Looming budget cuts and teacher shortages are an
                     opportunity,     not a threat

5/22/2009                 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen               11
School boards have been moving “up-market” to focus limited
      resources in the “new” trajectory of improvement




               of program
              Importance




                                                                           Time




                                                               Time
  5/22/2009                 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen          12
Perfect opportunity to implement online learning disruptively




                         of program
              Political importance




                                                                                     Time




                                                                         Time


 5/22/2009                            Copyright Clayton M. Christensen          13
The substitution of one thing for another
        always follows an S-curve pattern
                                   % new
                                   % old
  %                                10.0
new
                                    1.0


                                    0.1


                                    .01


                                   .001

                                   .0001
                                                03    05   07   09   11   13   15


  5/22/2009        Copyright Clayton M. Christensen                       14
Online learning gaining adoption
                                                                                            Online Enrollments (9-12 Grade)



             O n l i n e / O v era l l E n ro l l m e n t s ( 9 -1 2 G ra d e )
                                                                                      10



                                                                                       1

                                                                                       00


                                                                                             02


                                                                                                   04


                                                                                                         06


                                                                                                               08


                                                                                                                     10


                                                                                                                           12


                                                                                                                                 14


                                                                                                                                       16


                                                                                                                                             18


                                                                                                                                                   20
                                                                                      20


                                                                                            20


                                                                                                  20


                                                                                                        20


                                                                                                              20


                                                                                                                    20


                                                                                                                          20


                                                                                                                                20


                                                                                                                                      20


                                                                                                                                            20


                                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                     0.1



                                                                                    0.01



                                                                                   0.001



                                                                                  0.0001




    Enrollments up from 45,000 in 2000 to 1,000,000 in 2007
5/22/2009                                                                                     Copyright Clayton M. Christensen                          15
What are states doing?
• 44 states have some form of online learning
  initiative
• 25+ states have supplemental state-led
  programs
     – FLVS, Idaho Digital Learning Academy, MVU
     – 4 of these have 10K+ enrollments
     – Over a quarter grew by over 50%


5/22/2009        Copyright Clayton M. Christensen   16
What else can states do?
                  Policy implications
• Autonomous
• Self-sustaining funding
• Not beholden by the old metrics
    • Seat time  Mastery
    • Student: teacher ratio
    • Teacher certification
• Human resources pipeline and professional
  development
• Treatment and use of data
• Portal/Based on usage and what works
5/22/2009            Copyright Clayton M. Christensen   17

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Disrupting Class Powerpoint

  • 1. Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns Michael B. Horn May 14, 2009 mhorn@innosightinstitute.org 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 1
  • 2. Sustaining and Disruptive Innovations Incumbents nearly always win Performance Time 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 2
  • 3. Disruptive Innovations create asymmetric competition Incumbents nearly always win Performance 60% on $500,000 45% on $250,000 Of Performance Different measure Time 40% 20% on $2,000 Entrants nearly always win Time 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 3
  • 4. Disruption in business models has been the dominant historical mechanism for making things more affordable and accessible Yesterday Today Tomorrow: • Ford • Toyota • Chery • Dept. Stores • Wal-Mart • Internet retail • Digital Eqpt. • Dell • RIM Blackberry • Delta • Southwest Airlines • Air taxis • JP Morgan • Fidelity • ETFs • Xerox • Canon • Zink • IBM • Microsoft • Linux • Cullinet • Oracle • Salesforce.com • AT&T • Cingular • Skype • State universities • Community colleges • Online universities • Sony DiskMan • Apple iPod • Cell Phones 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 4
  • 5. Expensive failure results when disruption is framed in technological rather than business model terms Tabletop Radios, Floor-standing Performance TVs Path taken by Of Performance Different measure vacuum tube manufacturers Time Portable TVs Pocket radios Hearing aids Time 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 5
  • 6. The right product architecture depends upon the basis of competition IBM Mainframes, Microsoft Windows Performance Compete by improving functionality & reliability Compete by improving speed, responsiveness and customization Dell PCs, Linux Time 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 6
  • 7. Insights from examining education through the lenses of this research 1. Conflicting mandates in the way we teach vs. the way we learn 2. Computers have failed to make a difference because we have crammed them into conventional classrooms • They must initially be deployed against non-consumption 3. Individualized, computer-based instruction requires a disruptive distribution model 4. Separation is critical. Chartered schools should be seen as heavyweight teams, not disruptive competitors 5. We have imposed disruption on our schools three times in recent history by moving the goalposts – the metrics of improvement. 6. 5/22/2009 Education research has notM. Christensen the way forward 7 Copyright Clayton shown
  • 8. We all learn differently • Multiple intelligences • Talents – Linguistic, Mathematical, Kinesthetic – “Giftedness” is fluid • Motivations/interests • Aptitudes • Learning Styles • Different paces – Visual, aural, playful, deliberate – Fast, medium, slow • Depends on subject/domain • Ongoing cognitive • Research in practice science research – Scientific Learning – fMRI scans – Universal Design for Learning/CAST – K12, Inc. 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 8
  • 9. Conflicting mandates in the way we must teach vs. The way students must learn Interdependencies in the Need for customization for teaching infrastructure differences in how we learn Multiple Intelligences Paces of Learning Standardization !! Customization !! Learning Styles Temporal Lateral Physical Hierarchical 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 9
  • 10. Historically, most schools have “crammed” computer-based learning into the blue space Core Performance curriculum Path taken by Of Performance Different measure most schools, foundations and education software companies Time Time 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 10
  • 11. Prime examples of non-consumption • Credit recovery • Tutoring • Drop-outs • Professional development • Advanced Placement and • Pre-K other advanced courses • After school • Scheduling conflicts • In the home • Home-schooled and • Incarcerated youth homebound students • In-school suspension • Small, rural, and urban • School bus commute schools Looming budget cuts and teacher shortages are an opportunity, not a threat 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 11
  • 12. School boards have been moving “up-market” to focus limited resources in the “new” trajectory of improvement of program Importance Time Time 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 12
  • 13. Perfect opportunity to implement online learning disruptively of program Political importance Time Time 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 13
  • 14. The substitution of one thing for another always follows an S-curve pattern % new % old % 10.0 new 1.0 0.1 .01 .001 .0001 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 14
  • 15. Online learning gaining adoption Online Enrollments (9-12 Grade) O n l i n e / O v era l l E n ro l l m e n t s ( 9 -1 2 G ra d e ) 10 1 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 Enrollments up from 45,000 in 2000 to 1,000,000 in 2007 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 15
  • 16. What are states doing? • 44 states have some form of online learning initiative • 25+ states have supplemental state-led programs – FLVS, Idaho Digital Learning Academy, MVU – 4 of these have 10K+ enrollments – Over a quarter grew by over 50% 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 16
  • 17. What else can states do? Policy implications • Autonomous • Self-sustaining funding • Not beholden by the old metrics • Seat time  Mastery • Student: teacher ratio • Teacher certification • Human resources pipeline and professional development • Treatment and use of data • Portal/Based on usage and what works 5/22/2009 Copyright Clayton M. Christensen 17