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Bank Watch
August 2016
www.mercercapital.com
Fairness Considerations
for Mergers of Equals	 1
Public Market Indicators	 5
MA Market Indicators	 6
Regional Public
Bank Peer Reports	 7
About Mercer Capital	 8
© 2016 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1
Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016
When asked about his view of a tie years before the NCAA instituted the playoff
format in the 1990s, Coach Bear Bryant famously described the outcome as
“kissing your sister.” If he were a portfolio manager holding a position in a company
that entered into a merger of equals (MOE), his response might be the same. Wall
Street generally does not like MOEs unless the benefits are utterly obvious and/
or one or both parties had no other path to create shareholder value. In some
instances, MOEs may be an intermediate step to a larger transaction that unlocks
value. National Commerce Financial Corporation CEO Tom Garrott once told me
that part of his rationale for entering into a $1.6 billion MOE with CCB Financial
Corp. in 2000 that resulted in CCB owning 47% of the company was because
bankers told him he needed a bigger retail footprint to elicit top dollar in a sale.
It worked. National Commerce agreed to be acquired by SunTrust Banks, Inc. in
2004 in a deal that was valued at $7 billion.
Kissing Your Sister?
MOEs, like acquisitions, typically look good in a PowerPoint presentation, but
can be tough to execute. Busts from the past include Daimler-Benz/Chrysler
Corporation and AOL/Time Warner. Among banks the 1994 combination
of Cleveland-based Society Corporation and Albany-based KeyCorp was
considered to be a struggle for several years, while the 1995 combination of
North Carolina-based Southern National Corp. and BBT Financial Corporation
was deemed a success.
Fairness Considerations
for Mergers of Equals
The arbiter between success and failure for MOEs typically is culture, unless the
combination was just a triumph of investment banking and hubris, as was the case
with AOL/Time Warner. The post-merger KeyCorp struggled because Society was
a centralized, commercial-lending powerhouse compared to the decentralized,
retail-focused KeyCorp. Elements of both executive management teams stuck
around. Southern National, which took the BBT name, paid the then legacy BBT
management to go away. At the time there was outrage expressed among investors
at the amount, but CEO John Allison noted it was necessary to ensure success
with one management team in charge. Likewise, National Commerce’s Garrott as
Executive Chairman retained the exclusive option to oust CCB’s Ernie Roessler, who
became CEO of the combined company, at the cost of $10 million if he chose to do
so. Garrett exercised the option and cut the check in mid-2003 three years after the
MOE was consummated.
Fairness Opinions for MOEs
MOEs represent a different proposition for the financial advisor in terms of rendering
advice to the Board. An MOE is not the same transaction as advising a would-be
seller about how a take-out price will compare to other transactions or the company’s
potential value based upon management’s projections. The same applies to advising
a buyer regarding the pricing of a target. In an MOE (or quasi-MOE) both parties give
up 40-50% ownership for future benefits with typically little premium if one or both are
publicly traded. Plus there are the social issues to navigate.
© 2016 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2
Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016
While much of an advisor’s role will be focused on providing analysis and advice to
the Board leading up to a meaningful corporate decision, the fairness opinion issued
by the advisor (and/or second advisor) has a narrow scope. Among other things a
fairness opinion does not opine:
»» The course of action the Board should take;
»» 	The contemplated transaction represents the highest obtainable value;
»» Where a security will trade in the future; and
»» How shareholders should vote.
What is opined is the fairness of the transaction from a financial point of view of the
company’s shareholders as of a specific date and subject to certain assumptions.
If the opinion is a sell-side opinion, the advisor will opine as to the fairness of the
consideration received. The buy-side opinion will opine as to the fairness of the
consideration paid. A fairness opinion for each respective party to an MOE will opine
as to the fairness of the exchange ratio because MOEs largely entail stock-for-stock
structures.
Explaining the benefits of an MOE and why ultimately the transaction is deemed
to be fair in the absence of a market premium can be challenging. The pending
MOE among Talmer Bancorp Inc. (45%) and Chemical Financial Corp. (55%) is
an example. When the merger was announced on January 26, the implied value
for Talmer was $15.64 per share based upon the exchange ratio for Chemical
shares (plus a small amount of cash). Talmer’s shares closed on January 25,
2016 at $16.00 per share. During the call to discuss the transaction, one analyst
described the deal as a “take under” while a large institutional investor said
he was “incredibly disappointed” and accused the Board of not upholding its
fiduciary duty. The shares dropped 5% on the day of the announcement to close
at $15.19 per share.
What We’re Reading
In a recent meeting with the FDIC, many community bankers voiced their fears about
the potential disruption that fintech could have on their business models.
American Banker examines small businesses’ calls for their banks to adopt more up to
date technology in “Cost-Conscious Small Businesses Want Better Bank Tech.”
American Banker notes possible reasons behind an uptick in bank lending in the
second quarter of this year, despite a low growth economic environment.
Bank Director takes a look at the potential for the MA process for banks to evolve
in the post Dodd-Frank era of regulation.
A report from SNL highlights the plight of smaller community banks’ growth and
earnings, as they have often ended up paying much of the cost of recent regulatory
burdens placed on community banks. (subscription required)
© 2016 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3
Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016
Was the transaction unfair and did the Board breach its fiduciary duties (care, loyalty
and good faith) as the institutional shareholder claimed? It appears not. The S-4
notes Talmer had exploratory discussions with other institutions, including one that
was “substantially larger”; yet none were willing to move forward. As a result an MOE
with Chemical was crafted, which includes projected EPS accretion of 19% for Talmer,
8% for Chemical, and a 100%+ increase in the cash dividend to Talmer shareholders.
Although the fairness opinions did not opine where Chemical’s shares will trade in the
future, the bankers’ analyses noted sizable upside if the company achieves various
peer-level P/Es. (As of mid-July 2016, Talmer’s shares were trading around $20 per
share.)
Fairness is not defined legally. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines “fair” as “just,
equitable and agreeing with what is thought to be right or acceptable.” Fairness when
judging a corporate transaction is a range concept. Some transactions are not fair,
some are in the range—reasonable, and others are very fair.
The concept of “fairness” is especially well-suited for MOEs. MOEs represent a
combination of two companies in which both shareholders will benefit from expense
savings, revenue synergies and sometimes qualitative attributes.Value is an element
of the fairness analysis, but the relative analysis takes on more importance based
upon a comparison of contributions of revenues, earnings, capital and the like
compared to pro forma ownership.
Investment Merits to Consider
A key question to ask as part of the fairness analysis: are shareholders better
off or at least no worse for exchanging their shares for shares in the new
company and accepting the execution risks? In order to answer the question,
the investment merits of the pro forma company have to be weighed relative to
each partner’s attributes.
»» 	Profitability and Revenue Trends. The analysis should consider each
party’s historical and projected revenues, margins, operating earnings,
dividends and other financial metrics. Issues to be vetted include
customer concentrations, the source of growth, the source of any margin
pressure and the like.The quality of earnings and a comparison of core
vs. reported earnings over a multi-year period should be evaluated.
»» 	Expense Savings. How much and when are the savings expected to
be realized. Do the savings come disproportionately from one party?
Are the execution risks high? How does the present value of the after-
tax expense savings compare to the pre-merger value of the two
companies on a combined basis?
»» Pro Forma Projected Performance. How do the pro forma projections
compare with each party’s stand-alone projections? Does one party
sacrifice growth or margins by partnering with a slower growing and/or
lower margin company?
»» Per Share Accretion. Both parties of an MOE face ownership dilution.
What is obtained in return in terms of accretion (or dilution) in EBITDA
per share (for non-banks), tangible BVPS, EPS, dividends and the like?
»» 	Distribution Capacity. One of the benefits of a more profitable
company should be (all else equal) the capacity to return a greater
percentage of earnings (or cash flow) to shareholders in the form of
dividends and buybacks.
»» Capital Structure. Does the pro forma company operate with an
appropriate capital structure given industry norms, cyclicality of the
business and investment needs to sustain operations? Is there an issue
if one party to an MOE is less levered and the other is highly levered?
© 2016 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 4
Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016
»» Balance Sheet Flexibility. Related to the capital structure should
be a detailed review of the pro forma company’s balance sheet that
examines such areas as liquidity, funding sources, and the carrying
value of assets such as deferred tax assets.
»» Consensus Analyst Estimates. This can be a big consideration in
terms of Street reaction to an MOE for public companies. If pro forma
EPS estimates for both parties comfortably exceed Street estimates,
then the chances for a favorable reaction to an MOE announcement
improve. If accretion is deemed to be marginal for the risk assumed
or the projections are not viewed as credible, then reaction may be
negative.
»» Valuation. The valuation of the combined company based upon pro
forma per share metrics should be compared with each company’s
current and historical valuations and a relevant peer group. Also,
while no opinion is expressed about where the pro forma company’s
shares will trade in the future, the historical valuation metrics provide
a context to analyze a range of shareholder returns if earning targets
are met under various valuation scenarios. This is particularly useful
when comparing the analysis with each company on a stand-alone
basis.
»» Share Performance. Both parties should understand the source
of their shares and the other party’s share performance over multi-
year holding periods. For example, if the shares have significantly
outperformed an index over a given holding period, is it because
earnings growth accelerated? Or, is it because the shares were
depressed at the beginning of the measurement period? Likewise,
underperformance may signal disappointing earnings, or it may
reflect a starting point valuation that was unusually high.
»» 	Liquidity of the Shares. How much is liquidity expected to improve
because of the MOE? What is the capacity to sell shares issued in the
merger? SEC registration and even NASADQ and NYSE listings do not
guarantee that large blocks can be liquidated efficiently.
»» Strategic Position. Does the pro forma company have greater
strategic value as an acquisition candidate (or an acquirer) than the
merger partners individually?
Conclusion
The list does not encompass every question that should be asked as part of the
fairness analysis for an MOE, but it points to the importance of vetting the combined
company’s investment attributes as part of addressing what shareholders stand
to gain relative to what is relinquished. We at Mercer Capital have over 30 years
of experience helping companies and financial institutions assess significant
transactions, including MOEs. Do not hesitate to contact us to discuss a transaction
or valuation issue in confidence.
Jeff K. Davis, CFA
jeffdavis@mercercapital.com
615.345.0350
© 2016 Mercer Capital // Data provided by SP Global Market Intelligence 5
80 !
90 !
100 !
110 !
120 !
130 !
140 !
150 !
8/31/2012!9/30/2012!
10/31/2012!
11/30/2012!
12/31/2012!1/31/2013!2/28/2013!3/31/2013!4/30/2013!5/31/2013!6/30/2013!7/31/2013!
August31,2012=100!
MCM Index - Community Banks! SNL Bank! SP 500!
Mercer Capital’s Bank Group Index Overview Return Stratification of U.S. Banks
by Asset Size
Median Valuation Multiples
Median Total Return Median Valuation Multiples as of July 29, 2016
Indices
Month-to-
Date
Quarter-to-
Date
Year-to-
Date
Last 12
Months
Price/
LTM EPS
Price / 16(E)
EPS
Price / 17(E)
EPS
Price /
Book Value
Price /
Tangible
Book Value
Dividend
Yield
Atlantic Coast 3.40% 3.40% 5.43% 14.68% 16.6x 16.1x 14.5x 113% 129% 2.0%
Midwest 4.70% 4.70% 7.10% 17.55% 14.5x 14.5x 12.9x 118% 138% 2.1%
Northeast 3.23% 3.23% 7.54% 12.90% 14.5x 14.2x 11.9x 115% 128% 3.0%
Southeast 4.12% 4.12% 1.80% 11.77% 14.6x 15.0x 13.8x 102% 111% 1.5%
West 2.42% 2.42% 1.75% 10.83% 15.3x 15.0x 12.7x 120% 128% 2.4%
National Community Banks 3.58% 3.58% 4.89% 13.57% 15.1x 15.0x 13.1x 115% 128% 2.1%
SNL Bank Index 4.26% 4.26% -5.75% -10.59%
80 !
85 !
90 !
95 !
100 !
105 !
110 !
115 !
120 !
7/29/2015!8/29/2015!9/29/2015!
10/29/2015!11/29/2015!
12/29/2015!1/29/2016!2/29/2016!3/31/2016!4/30/2016!5/31/2016!6/30/2016!
July29,2015=100!
MCM Index - Community Banks! SNL Bank! SP 500!
Mercer Capital’s Public Market Indicators August 2016
Assets $250 -
$500M
Assets $500M
- $1B
Assets $1 -
$5B
Assets $5 -
$10B
Assets  $10B
Month-to-Date 4.37% 2.72% 4.15% 4.85% 4.23%
Quarter-to-Date 4.37% 2.72% 4.15% 4.85% 4.23%
Year-to-Date 2.00% 5.96% 2.81% 4.56% -6.59%
Last 12 Months 6.60% 13.23% 9.05% 7.83% -12.08%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
AsofJuly29,2016
© 2016 Mercer Capital // Data provided by SP Global Market Intelligence 6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM
U.S. 18.3% 19.9% 19.9% 18.7% 12.0% 6.9% 6.3% 5.4% 4.3% 5.5% 7.5% 7.5% 6.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
CoreDepositPremiums
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM
U.S. 246% 243% 243% 228% 196% 145% 141% 132% 130% 134% 155% 148% 143%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Price/TangibleBookValue
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM
U.S. 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.1 19.9 19.3 21.7 21.9 17.0 16.5 17.5 18.8 17.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Price/Last12Months
Earnings
Regions
Price /
LTM
Earnings
Price/
Tang.
BV
Price /
Core Dep
Premium
No.
of
Deals
Median
Deal
Value
Target’s
Median
Assets
Target’s
Median
LTM
ROAE
Atlantic Coast 17.7x 145% 6.0% 21 65.10 501,856 8.27%
Midwest 17.3x 141% 6.0% 71 23.20 136,536 8.72%
Northeast 21.9x 149% 9.3% 9 78.47 495,016 7.12%
Southeast 15.5x 142% 8.8% 25 58.71 184,113 11.02%
West 16.1x 141% 8.7% 14 56.25 218,543 11.05%
National Community
Banks
17.5x 143% 6.3% 140 41.58 195,874 8.87%
Source: Per SNL Financial
Median Valuation Multiples for MA Deals
Target Banks’ Assets $5B and LTM ROE 5%, 12 months ended July 2016
Median Core Deposit Multiples
Target Banks’ Assets $5B and LTM ROE 5%
Median Price/Tangible Book Value Multiples
Target Banks’ Assets $5B and LTM ROE 5%
Median Price/Earnings Multiples
Target Banks’ Assets $5B and LTM ROE 5%
Mercer Capital’s MA Market Indicators August 2016
Updated weekly, Mercer Capital’s Regional Public Bank Peer Reports offer a closer
look at the market pricing and performance of publicly traded banks in the states of
five U.S. regions. Click on the map to view the reports from the representative region.
© 2016 Mercer Capital // Data provided by SP Global Market Intelligence 7
Atlantic Coast Midwest Northeast
Southeast West
Mercer Capital’s
Regional Public
Bank Peer Reports
Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016
Mercer Capital assists banks, thrifts, and credit unions with significant corporate
valuation requirements, transactional advisory services, and other strategic
decisions.
Mercer Capital pairs analytical rigor with industry knowledge to deliver unique insight into issues facing banks. These
insights underpin the valuation analyses that are at the heart of Mercer Capital’s services to depository institutions.
»» Bank valuation
»» Financial reporting for banks
»» Goodwill impairment
»» Litigation support
»» Stress Testing
Mercer Capital is a thought-leader among valuation firms in the banking industry. In addition to scores of articles
and books, The ESOP Handbook for Banks, Acquiring a Failed Bank, The Bank Director’s Valuation Handbook,
and Valuing Financial Institutions, Mercer Capital professionals speak at industry and educational conferences.
For more information about Mercer Capital, visit www.mercercapital.com.
Mercer
Capital
Financial Institutions Services
Jeff K. Davis, CFA
615.345.0350
jeffdavis@mercercapital.com
Andrew K. Gibbs, CFA, CPA/ABV
901.322.9726
gibbsa@mercercapital.com
Jay D. Wilson, Jr., CFA, ASA, CBA
901.322.9725
wilsonj@mercercapital.com
MERCER CAPITAL
Memphis
5100 Poplar Avenue, Suite 2600
Memphis, Tennessee 38137
901.685.2120
Dallas
12201 Merit Drive, Suite 480
Dallas, Texas 75251
214.468.8400
Nashville
102 Woodmont Blvd., Suite 231
Nashville, Tennessee 37205
615.345.0350
www.mercercapital.com
Contact Us
Copyright © 2016 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged.
Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch is published monthly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an
information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list
to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com.
»» Loan portfolio valuation
»» Tax compliance
»» Transaction advisory
»» Strategic planning

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Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | August 2016 | Fairness Considerations for Mergers of Equals

  • 1. Bank Watch August 2016 www.mercercapital.com Fairness Considerations for Mergers of Equals 1 Public Market Indicators 5 MA Market Indicators 6 Regional Public Bank Peer Reports 7 About Mercer Capital 8
  • 2. © 2016 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1 Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016 When asked about his view of a tie years before the NCAA instituted the playoff format in the 1990s, Coach Bear Bryant famously described the outcome as “kissing your sister.” If he were a portfolio manager holding a position in a company that entered into a merger of equals (MOE), his response might be the same. Wall Street generally does not like MOEs unless the benefits are utterly obvious and/ or one or both parties had no other path to create shareholder value. In some instances, MOEs may be an intermediate step to a larger transaction that unlocks value. National Commerce Financial Corporation CEO Tom Garrott once told me that part of his rationale for entering into a $1.6 billion MOE with CCB Financial Corp. in 2000 that resulted in CCB owning 47% of the company was because bankers told him he needed a bigger retail footprint to elicit top dollar in a sale. It worked. National Commerce agreed to be acquired by SunTrust Banks, Inc. in 2004 in a deal that was valued at $7 billion. Kissing Your Sister? MOEs, like acquisitions, typically look good in a PowerPoint presentation, but can be tough to execute. Busts from the past include Daimler-Benz/Chrysler Corporation and AOL/Time Warner. Among banks the 1994 combination of Cleveland-based Society Corporation and Albany-based KeyCorp was considered to be a struggle for several years, while the 1995 combination of North Carolina-based Southern National Corp. and BBT Financial Corporation was deemed a success. Fairness Considerations for Mergers of Equals The arbiter between success and failure for MOEs typically is culture, unless the combination was just a triumph of investment banking and hubris, as was the case with AOL/Time Warner. The post-merger KeyCorp struggled because Society was a centralized, commercial-lending powerhouse compared to the decentralized, retail-focused KeyCorp. Elements of both executive management teams stuck around. Southern National, which took the BBT name, paid the then legacy BBT management to go away. At the time there was outrage expressed among investors at the amount, but CEO John Allison noted it was necessary to ensure success with one management team in charge. Likewise, National Commerce’s Garrott as Executive Chairman retained the exclusive option to oust CCB’s Ernie Roessler, who became CEO of the combined company, at the cost of $10 million if he chose to do so. Garrett exercised the option and cut the check in mid-2003 three years after the MOE was consummated. Fairness Opinions for MOEs MOEs represent a different proposition for the financial advisor in terms of rendering advice to the Board. An MOE is not the same transaction as advising a would-be seller about how a take-out price will compare to other transactions or the company’s potential value based upon management’s projections. The same applies to advising a buyer regarding the pricing of a target. In an MOE (or quasi-MOE) both parties give up 40-50% ownership for future benefits with typically little premium if one or both are publicly traded. Plus there are the social issues to navigate.
  • 3. © 2016 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2 Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016 While much of an advisor’s role will be focused on providing analysis and advice to the Board leading up to a meaningful corporate decision, the fairness opinion issued by the advisor (and/or second advisor) has a narrow scope. Among other things a fairness opinion does not opine: »» The course of action the Board should take; »» The contemplated transaction represents the highest obtainable value; »» Where a security will trade in the future; and »» How shareholders should vote. What is opined is the fairness of the transaction from a financial point of view of the company’s shareholders as of a specific date and subject to certain assumptions. If the opinion is a sell-side opinion, the advisor will opine as to the fairness of the consideration received. The buy-side opinion will opine as to the fairness of the consideration paid. A fairness opinion for each respective party to an MOE will opine as to the fairness of the exchange ratio because MOEs largely entail stock-for-stock structures. Explaining the benefits of an MOE and why ultimately the transaction is deemed to be fair in the absence of a market premium can be challenging. The pending MOE among Talmer Bancorp Inc. (45%) and Chemical Financial Corp. (55%) is an example. When the merger was announced on January 26, the implied value for Talmer was $15.64 per share based upon the exchange ratio for Chemical shares (plus a small amount of cash). Talmer’s shares closed on January 25, 2016 at $16.00 per share. During the call to discuss the transaction, one analyst described the deal as a “take under” while a large institutional investor said he was “incredibly disappointed” and accused the Board of not upholding its fiduciary duty. The shares dropped 5% on the day of the announcement to close at $15.19 per share. What We’re Reading In a recent meeting with the FDIC, many community bankers voiced their fears about the potential disruption that fintech could have on their business models. American Banker examines small businesses’ calls for their banks to adopt more up to date technology in “Cost-Conscious Small Businesses Want Better Bank Tech.” American Banker notes possible reasons behind an uptick in bank lending in the second quarter of this year, despite a low growth economic environment. Bank Director takes a look at the potential for the MA process for banks to evolve in the post Dodd-Frank era of regulation. A report from SNL highlights the plight of smaller community banks’ growth and earnings, as they have often ended up paying much of the cost of recent regulatory burdens placed on community banks. (subscription required)
  • 4. © 2016 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3 Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016 Was the transaction unfair and did the Board breach its fiduciary duties (care, loyalty and good faith) as the institutional shareholder claimed? It appears not. The S-4 notes Talmer had exploratory discussions with other institutions, including one that was “substantially larger”; yet none were willing to move forward. As a result an MOE with Chemical was crafted, which includes projected EPS accretion of 19% for Talmer, 8% for Chemical, and a 100%+ increase in the cash dividend to Talmer shareholders. Although the fairness opinions did not opine where Chemical’s shares will trade in the future, the bankers’ analyses noted sizable upside if the company achieves various peer-level P/Es. (As of mid-July 2016, Talmer’s shares were trading around $20 per share.) Fairness is not defined legally. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines “fair” as “just, equitable and agreeing with what is thought to be right or acceptable.” Fairness when judging a corporate transaction is a range concept. Some transactions are not fair, some are in the range—reasonable, and others are very fair. The concept of “fairness” is especially well-suited for MOEs. MOEs represent a combination of two companies in which both shareholders will benefit from expense savings, revenue synergies and sometimes qualitative attributes.Value is an element of the fairness analysis, but the relative analysis takes on more importance based upon a comparison of contributions of revenues, earnings, capital and the like compared to pro forma ownership. Investment Merits to Consider A key question to ask as part of the fairness analysis: are shareholders better off or at least no worse for exchanging their shares for shares in the new company and accepting the execution risks? In order to answer the question, the investment merits of the pro forma company have to be weighed relative to each partner’s attributes. »» Profitability and Revenue Trends. The analysis should consider each party’s historical and projected revenues, margins, operating earnings, dividends and other financial metrics. Issues to be vetted include customer concentrations, the source of growth, the source of any margin pressure and the like.The quality of earnings and a comparison of core vs. reported earnings over a multi-year period should be evaluated. »» Expense Savings. How much and when are the savings expected to be realized. Do the savings come disproportionately from one party? Are the execution risks high? How does the present value of the after- tax expense savings compare to the pre-merger value of the two companies on a combined basis? »» Pro Forma Projected Performance. How do the pro forma projections compare with each party’s stand-alone projections? Does one party sacrifice growth or margins by partnering with a slower growing and/or lower margin company? »» Per Share Accretion. Both parties of an MOE face ownership dilution. What is obtained in return in terms of accretion (or dilution) in EBITDA per share (for non-banks), tangible BVPS, EPS, dividends and the like? »» Distribution Capacity. One of the benefits of a more profitable company should be (all else equal) the capacity to return a greater percentage of earnings (or cash flow) to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. »» Capital Structure. Does the pro forma company operate with an appropriate capital structure given industry norms, cyclicality of the business and investment needs to sustain operations? Is there an issue if one party to an MOE is less levered and the other is highly levered?
  • 5. © 2016 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 4 Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016 »» Balance Sheet Flexibility. Related to the capital structure should be a detailed review of the pro forma company’s balance sheet that examines such areas as liquidity, funding sources, and the carrying value of assets such as deferred tax assets. »» Consensus Analyst Estimates. This can be a big consideration in terms of Street reaction to an MOE for public companies. If pro forma EPS estimates for both parties comfortably exceed Street estimates, then the chances for a favorable reaction to an MOE announcement improve. If accretion is deemed to be marginal for the risk assumed or the projections are not viewed as credible, then reaction may be negative. »» Valuation. The valuation of the combined company based upon pro forma per share metrics should be compared with each company’s current and historical valuations and a relevant peer group. Also, while no opinion is expressed about where the pro forma company’s shares will trade in the future, the historical valuation metrics provide a context to analyze a range of shareholder returns if earning targets are met under various valuation scenarios. This is particularly useful when comparing the analysis with each company on a stand-alone basis. »» Share Performance. Both parties should understand the source of their shares and the other party’s share performance over multi- year holding periods. For example, if the shares have significantly outperformed an index over a given holding period, is it because earnings growth accelerated? Or, is it because the shares were depressed at the beginning of the measurement period? Likewise, underperformance may signal disappointing earnings, or it may reflect a starting point valuation that was unusually high. »» Liquidity of the Shares. How much is liquidity expected to improve because of the MOE? What is the capacity to sell shares issued in the merger? SEC registration and even NASADQ and NYSE listings do not guarantee that large blocks can be liquidated efficiently. »» Strategic Position. Does the pro forma company have greater strategic value as an acquisition candidate (or an acquirer) than the merger partners individually? Conclusion The list does not encompass every question that should be asked as part of the fairness analysis for an MOE, but it points to the importance of vetting the combined company’s investment attributes as part of addressing what shareholders stand to gain relative to what is relinquished. We at Mercer Capital have over 30 years of experience helping companies and financial institutions assess significant transactions, including MOEs. Do not hesitate to contact us to discuss a transaction or valuation issue in confidence. Jeff K. Davis, CFA jeffdavis@mercercapital.com 615.345.0350
  • 6. © 2016 Mercer Capital // Data provided by SP Global Market Intelligence 5 80 ! 90 ! 100 ! 110 ! 120 ! 130 ! 140 ! 150 ! 8/31/2012!9/30/2012! 10/31/2012! 11/30/2012! 12/31/2012!1/31/2013!2/28/2013!3/31/2013!4/30/2013!5/31/2013!6/30/2013!7/31/2013! August31,2012=100! MCM Index - Community Banks! SNL Bank! SP 500! Mercer Capital’s Bank Group Index Overview Return Stratification of U.S. Banks by Asset Size Median Valuation Multiples Median Total Return Median Valuation Multiples as of July 29, 2016 Indices Month-to- Date Quarter-to- Date Year-to- Date Last 12 Months Price/ LTM EPS Price / 16(E) EPS Price / 17(E) EPS Price / Book Value Price / Tangible Book Value Dividend Yield Atlantic Coast 3.40% 3.40% 5.43% 14.68% 16.6x 16.1x 14.5x 113% 129% 2.0% Midwest 4.70% 4.70% 7.10% 17.55% 14.5x 14.5x 12.9x 118% 138% 2.1% Northeast 3.23% 3.23% 7.54% 12.90% 14.5x 14.2x 11.9x 115% 128% 3.0% Southeast 4.12% 4.12% 1.80% 11.77% 14.6x 15.0x 13.8x 102% 111% 1.5% West 2.42% 2.42% 1.75% 10.83% 15.3x 15.0x 12.7x 120% 128% 2.4% National Community Banks 3.58% 3.58% 4.89% 13.57% 15.1x 15.0x 13.1x 115% 128% 2.1% SNL Bank Index 4.26% 4.26% -5.75% -10.59% 80 ! 85 ! 90 ! 95 ! 100 ! 105 ! 110 ! 115 ! 120 ! 7/29/2015!8/29/2015!9/29/2015! 10/29/2015!11/29/2015! 12/29/2015!1/29/2016!2/29/2016!3/31/2016!4/30/2016!5/31/2016!6/30/2016! July29,2015=100! MCM Index - Community Banks! SNL Bank! SP 500! Mercer Capital’s Public Market Indicators August 2016 Assets $250 - $500M Assets $500M - $1B Assets $1 - $5B Assets $5 - $10B Assets $10B Month-to-Date 4.37% 2.72% 4.15% 4.85% 4.23% Quarter-to-Date 4.37% 2.72% 4.15% 4.85% 4.23% Year-to-Date 2.00% 5.96% 2.81% 4.56% -6.59% Last 12 Months 6.60% 13.23% 9.05% 7.83% -12.08% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% AsofJuly29,2016
  • 7. © 2016 Mercer Capital // Data provided by SP Global Market Intelligence 6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM U.S. 18.3% 19.9% 19.9% 18.7% 12.0% 6.9% 6.3% 5.4% 4.3% 5.5% 7.5% 7.5% 6.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% CoreDepositPremiums 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM U.S. 246% 243% 243% 228% 196% 145% 141% 132% 130% 134% 155% 148% 143% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Price/TangibleBookValue 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM U.S. 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.1 19.9 19.3 21.7 21.9 17.0 16.5 17.5 18.8 17.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Price/Last12Months Earnings Regions Price / LTM Earnings Price/ Tang. BV Price / Core Dep Premium No. of Deals Median Deal Value Target’s Median Assets Target’s Median LTM ROAE Atlantic Coast 17.7x 145% 6.0% 21 65.10 501,856 8.27% Midwest 17.3x 141% 6.0% 71 23.20 136,536 8.72% Northeast 21.9x 149% 9.3% 9 78.47 495,016 7.12% Southeast 15.5x 142% 8.8% 25 58.71 184,113 11.02% West 16.1x 141% 8.7% 14 56.25 218,543 11.05% National Community Banks 17.5x 143% 6.3% 140 41.58 195,874 8.87% Source: Per SNL Financial Median Valuation Multiples for MA Deals Target Banks’ Assets $5B and LTM ROE 5%, 12 months ended July 2016 Median Core Deposit Multiples Target Banks’ Assets $5B and LTM ROE 5% Median Price/Tangible Book Value Multiples Target Banks’ Assets $5B and LTM ROE 5% Median Price/Earnings Multiples Target Banks’ Assets $5B and LTM ROE 5% Mercer Capital’s MA Market Indicators August 2016
  • 8. Updated weekly, Mercer Capital’s Regional Public Bank Peer Reports offer a closer look at the market pricing and performance of publicly traded banks in the states of five U.S. regions. Click on the map to view the reports from the representative region. © 2016 Mercer Capital // Data provided by SP Global Market Intelligence 7 Atlantic Coast Midwest Northeast Southeast West Mercer Capital’s Regional Public Bank Peer Reports Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch August 2016
  • 9. Mercer Capital assists banks, thrifts, and credit unions with significant corporate valuation requirements, transactional advisory services, and other strategic decisions. Mercer Capital pairs analytical rigor with industry knowledge to deliver unique insight into issues facing banks. These insights underpin the valuation analyses that are at the heart of Mercer Capital’s services to depository institutions. »» Bank valuation »» Financial reporting for banks »» Goodwill impairment »» Litigation support »» Stress Testing Mercer Capital is a thought-leader among valuation firms in the banking industry. In addition to scores of articles and books, The ESOP Handbook for Banks, Acquiring a Failed Bank, The Bank Director’s Valuation Handbook, and Valuing Financial Institutions, Mercer Capital professionals speak at industry and educational conferences. For more information about Mercer Capital, visit www.mercercapital.com. Mercer Capital Financial Institutions Services Jeff K. Davis, CFA 615.345.0350 jeffdavis@mercercapital.com Andrew K. Gibbs, CFA, CPA/ABV 901.322.9726 gibbsa@mercercapital.com Jay D. Wilson, Jr., CFA, ASA, CBA 901.322.9725 wilsonj@mercercapital.com MERCER CAPITAL Memphis 5100 Poplar Avenue, Suite 2600 Memphis, Tennessee 38137 901.685.2120 Dallas 12201 Merit Drive, Suite 480 Dallas, Texas 75251 214.468.8400 Nashville 102 Woodmont Blvd., Suite 231 Nashville, Tennessee 37205 615.345.0350 www.mercercapital.com Contact Us Copyright © 2016 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch is published monthly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com. »» Loan portfolio valuation »» Tax compliance »» Transaction advisory »» Strategic planning