Demographic Changes and International Security to 2050
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Powerpoint Presentation by Dr. Jack Goldstone December 2, 2009 "The Center Cannot Hold: Demographic Change and International Security 2010-2050" Social Change Project Lunch Lecture
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Demographic Changes and International Security to 2050
- 1. The Center Cannot Hold: Demographic Change and International Security 2010-2050 Jack A. Goldstone 2 December 2009 Mercatus Center
- 4. Table 2: European Pop Decline to 2050
- 5. Table 3: Oldest Countries in 2000 in 2050 Country 15-59 60+ 15-59 60+ Italy 61.7 24.1 46.2 42.3 Greece 61.5 23.4 46.2 40.7 Germany 61.2 23.2 49.5 38.1 Japan 62.1 23.2 45.2 42.3 Sweden 59.4 22.4 48.3 37.7 Belgium 60.6 22.1 50.3 35.5 Spain 63.5 21.8 44.5 44.1 Bulgaria 62.6 21.7 47.6 38.6 Switzerland 62.1 21.3 48.6 38.9 Latvia 61.7 20.9 47.5 37.5 Portugal 62.5 20.8 49.9 35.7 Austria 62.6 20.7 47.4 41.0 United Kingdom 60.4 20.6 51.1 34.0 Ukraine 61.6 20.5 49.0 38.1 France 60.7 20.5 51.3 32.7 Estonia 62.1 20.2 48.5 35.9 Croatia 61.8 20.2 53.0 30.8 Denmark 61.8 20.0 53.0 31.8 Finland 62.0 19.9 50.6 34.4 Hungary 63.3 19.7 49.4 36.2 Norway 60.7 19.6 51.7 32.3 Luxembourg 62.0 19.4 57.1 25.2 Slovenia 65.0 19.2 45.1 42.4 Belarus 62.4 18.9 49.6 35.8 Romania 62.9 18.8 50.0 34.2
- 6. Table 4: Fastest Growing Countries 2000-2005 (Pop. Over 1 million)
- 7. Table 5: Youngest Countries Country age groups 2000 in % 0-14 15-59 60+ Yemen 50.1 46.3 3.6 Niger 49.9 46.9 3.3 Uganda 49.2 47.0 3.8 Dem. Rep. of the Congo 48.8 46.7 4.5 Burkina Faso 48.7 46.5 4.8 Angola 48.2 47.3 4.5 Somalia 48.0 48.1 3.9 Burundi 47.6 48.1 4.3 Zambia 46.5 48.9 4.5 Chad 46.5 48.6 4.9 Palestinian Terr. 46.4 48.7 4.9 Benin 46.4 49.4 4.2 Malawi 46.3 49.0 4.6 Congo 46.3 48.7 5.1 Mali 46.1 48.1 5.7 Zimbabwe 45.2 50.1 4.7 Ethiopia 45.2 50.1 4.7 Nigeria 45.1 50.2 4.8 Tanzania 45.0 51.0 4.0 Solomon Islands 44.8 51.0 4.2 Madagascar 44.7 50.5 4.7 Senegal 44.3 51.5 4.2 Rwanda 44.3 51.5 4.2 Togo 44.3 50.9 4.9 Sierra Leone 44.2 51.0 4.8
- 8. Percentage of Population under 15 years old, 2005 Red: 40+ Pink: 30-39 Light Blue: 20-29 Dark Blue: <20 Figure 1: Old and Young Regions
- 9. Urban Agglomerations, 2015 Table 6:
- 10. Table 7: Urbanization Projected Urban Populations, percentages of total population REGION 2005 2030 E. Africa 22 34 N. Africa 51 64 M. Africa 40 55 W. Africa 42 57 S. Africa 56 69 SE Asia 44 61 Europe 72 78
- 11. Sources for Tables Tables 1 through 5: UN Population Division: World Population Prospects, 2008 Revision, Medium Growth Variant http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_text_tables.pdf Tables 6 and Table 7: UN Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, 2007 Revision http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2007/2007WUP_Highlights_web.pdf