http://www.Media4MathPlus.com In this issue of Math in the News we look at football statistics to examine who stands the best chance of winning Super Bowl XLVIII. This is an excellent opportunity for data analysis.

1. Who Will Win Super Bowl XLVIII?
Math in the News
Issue 89

2. Super Bowl XLVIII
Denver is a slight favorite to win the Super
Bowl against Seattle. But predictions are
usually as good as the statistics that underlie
the prediction. In this issue we look at the two
team’s statistics. (Source: NFL.com.)

3. Super Bowl XLVIII
We start by comparing the statistics of two key
players: the Quarterbacks Peyton Manning and
Russell Wilson
Rank
Player
Completion
Percentage Yds/G
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Philip Rivers
Tom Brady
Andy Dalton
Carson Palmer
Ben Roethlisberger
Ryan Tannehill
Joe Flacco
Tony Romo
Andrew Luck
Eli Manning
Cam Newton
Russell Wilson
68.3
68.6
58.5
67.4
69.5
60.5
61.9
63.3
64.2
60.4
59
63.9
60.2
57.5
61.7
63.1
342.3
322.6
290.6
282.2
279.9
271.4
268.3
267.1
266.3
244.6
244.5
255.2
238.9
238.6
211.2
209.8
TD
55
39
29
26
32
25
33
24
28
24
19
31
23
18
24
26

4. Super Bowl XLVIII
As you can see, Peyton Manning is not only in first place on
several key statistics, he has a dominant position, especially
compared to Russell Wilson. These statistics are from the
Regular Season. Let’s look at them in more detail.
Rank
Player
Completion
Percentage Yds/G
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Philip Rivers
Tom Brady
Andy Dalton
Carson Palmer
Ben Roethlisberger
Ryan Tannehill
Joe Flacco
Tony Romo
Andrew Luck
Eli Manning
Cam Newton
Russell Wilson
68.3
68.6
58.5
67.4
69.5
60.5
61.9
63.3
64.2
60.4
59
63.9
60.2
57.5
61.7
63.1
342.3
322.6
290.6
282.2
279.9
271.4
268.3
267.1
266.3
244.6
244.5
255.2
238.9
238.6
211.2
209.8
TD
55
39
29
26
32
25
33
24
28
24
19
31
23
18
24
26

5. Super Bowl XLVIII
This is a box-and-whisker plot showing the
completion percentage for all quarterbacks in
the NFL who attempted at least 100 passes.

6. Super Bowl XLVIII
We overlay the statistics for Manning and
Wilson for comparison. As you can see,
Manning was well above the median.
W
M

7. Super Bowl XLVIII
This is a box-and-whisker plot showing the
yards/game for all quarterbacks who attempted
at least 100 passes.

8. Super Bowl XLVIII
We overlay the statistics for Manning and
Wilson for comparison. As before, note
Manning’s dominant position.
W
M

9. Super Bowl XLVIII
Finally, here is a box-and-whisker plot showing
the total number of touchdowns in the regular
season. Note the outlier.

10. Super Bowl XLVIII
The overlay of Manning’s and Wilson’s
statistics shows that Manning accounts for the
outlier.
W
M

11. Super Bowl XLVIII
So why is Denver just a slight favorite over
Seattle? As strong as Denver’s offense is,
Seattle has an equally formidable defense.
Let’s look at the statistics.

12. Super Bowl XLVIII
A good defense keeps the opposing team from not
gaining many yards per game. These are the collective
stats for the Regular Season showing the total number
of yards defenses allowed. Note the outlier.

13. Super Bowl XLVIII
Here we overlay Seattle’s and Denver’s
defenses. You can see that Seattle allowed the
fewest yards per game and accounted for the
outlier.
S
D

14. Super Bowl XLVIII
Related to the total yards allowed is the total
number of points allowed. Here is a box-andwhisker plot for all the teams.

15. Super Bowl XLVIII
The overlay shows the statistics for Seattle and
Denver.
S
D

16. Super Bowl XLVIII
Based on the statistics you’ve seen, what is
your prediction about the outcome of the Super
Bowl?