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#NOESTIMATES 
thinking 
#iad14 
Massimo Iacolare @iacoware
my journey
MYTH
Estimating 
sucks!
Estimating 
sucks! 
End of story. Questions?
Estimating 
sucks! 
End of story. Questions? 
Relax, I’m kidding ;-)
Estimating 
sucks! 
End of story. Questions? 
Relax, I’m kidding ;-) 
kind of…
just lazy?
from 
#NoEstimates 
to 
#NoSalary
#NoEstimates Thinking
woody zuill 
@woodyzuill 
vasco duarte 
@duarte_vasco Neil killick 
@neil_killick 
Ángel Medinilla 
@angel_m 
J.B. rainsberger 
@jbrains 
Chris R. Chapman 
@DerailleurAgile 
Joshua Kerievsky 
@JoshuaKerievsky 
Henri Karhatsu 
@karhatsu 
many more…
#NoEstimates is a hashtag for the 
topic of exploring alternatives to 
estimates for making decisions in 
software development. That is, ways 
to make decisions with 'No Estimates' 
Woody Zuill
“#NoEstimates is a critique 
to how estimates are 
usually handled not to 
how they should be done”
ED D
ED EVELOPMENT 
STIMATES 
RIVEN 
D
#NoEstimates Thinking
WHY ESTIMATES 
DON’T HELP
WRITING 
SOFTWARE
DEALING WITH 
UNCERTAINTY 
every project brings something new
Domain 
Technology - tools 
process 
people
Domain 
Technology - tools 
process 
people 
+ 
we learn by doing
UNCERTAINTY 
& 
upfront 
ESTIMATES ?
Oil & water
unreliable
MOST useful at the beginning 
maximum 
ignorance
Cost of a feature 
essential 
complexity +
Cost of a feature 
essential 
complexity 
accidental 
complexity + 
Foundamental theorem of agile software development
#NoEstimates Thinking
How much time do you need to 
add “customer promotions” 
to our e-commerce?
How much time do you need to 
add “customer promotions” 
to our e-commerce?
BIASES 
optimism bias 
anchoring bias 
LOSS AVERSION 
AVAILABILITY BIAS 
sunk cost fallacy 
SELECTIVE PERCEPT. 
…many more
we suck at making 
predictions
side effects
Set 
Expectations
Foster plans 
detailed plans 
detailed backlog
“estimating means you’re 
getting married to a plan, 
which you know is wrong 
even when you start” 
vasco duarte
learn by doing 
“estimating means you’re 
getting married to a plan, 
which you know is wrong 
even when you start” 
vasco duarte
Hinder 
Adaptation
loss aversion 
Hinder 
Adaptation
promote 
cost-based 
mindset
cost 
↳number 
↳certain 
value 
↳ ??? 
↳ UNcertain
availability bias 
cost 
↳number 
↳certain 
value 
↳ ??? 
↳ UNcertain
Costs become 
the target to Hit
same cost 
more features
same cost 
more features
more features 
= 
better software
more features 
== 
better software
more features 
== 
in case you are 
a developer 
better software
more features 
== 
better software
more features 
== 
in case you come 
from javascript = 
better software
more features 
== 
in case you come 
from javascript = 
better software 
Fallacy
minimize output 
maximize outcome
more features 
= 
bigger codebase 
= 
Hinder ADAPTation
more features 
= 
bigger codebase 
= 
Hinder ADAPTation 
again
BETTER SOFTWARE
BETTER features 
= 
BETTER SOFTWARE
RECAP
don’t help with uncertainty 
plagued by fallacies 
foster detailed plans 
COST-based mindset 
hinder adaptation
#NoEstimates Thinking
#NoEstimates Thinking
Where’s the 
exit, please?
step 0 
sign the contract
get off to a 
good start
get off to a 
good start 
affect execution
the perils of 
fixed-price 
fixed-scope
fixed price - fixed scope 
requirements (estimated plan) 
a price 
a delivery date
fixed price - fixed scope 
requirements (estimated plan) 
a price 
a delivery date
premises 
requirements captured the problem 
you understood the problem 
Uncertainty doesn’t exist 
estimates are correct 
execution goes smootly
premises 
requirements captured the problem 
you understood the problem 
Uncertainty doesn’t exist 
estimates are correct 
execution goes smootly
premises 
requirements captured the problem 
you understood the problem 
Uncertainty doesn’t exist 
estimates are correct 
execution goes smootly
customer problem 
fp-fs 
things go wrong 
you fail 
you suck
customer problem 
fp-fs 
things go wrong 
you fail 
you suck 
bigger penalty fees
customer problem 
fp-fs 
things go wrong 
you fail 
you suck 
bigger penalty fees 
more analysis
you f*ck me, 
I F*ck you 
fixed-price, fixed-scope contracts
Agile contracts 
Capped time-material 
incremental delivery
#NoEstimates Thinking
the exit, 
please?
adopt a 
development style 
which doesn’t rely 
on estimates
we learn by doing 
so we should hit the 
target iteratively
adopt a development 
style which foster a 
healthy, mature 
relationship with my 
customers
do the right thing 
do it right 
do it iteratively
do the right thing 
do it right
do the right thing 
solve the right problem 
the starting point matters
map the 
problem with 
story mapping
jeff patton
communication tool 
whole point of Xp: business people and 
technical people should talk 
help build customer trust Visualizing 
your strategy
#NoEstimates Thinking
#NoEstimates Thinking
#NoEstimates Thinking
#NoEstimates Thinking
#NoEstimates Thinking
#NoEstimates Thinking
#NoEstimates Thinking
#NoEstimates Thinking
story mapping 
benefits
build a shared 
understanding
spot story’s 
holes
build effective 
releases 
prioritize by outcome, not features 
walking skeleton 
plan to reduce uncertainty
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
avoid silos 
Users catalog cart promo payments
keep plans 
lightweight 
embrace flexible scope 
half life of requirements
#NoEstimates Thinking
do it right 
get better at software development 
how hard 
can it be?
do it right 
get better at software development 
how hard 
can it be?
support an 
iterative-incremental 
style of development
what do we need?
tight feedback loop 
slice scope 
exploit iterative development 
technical excellence to keep 
it all together
tight feedback 
loop 
tdd ↔ continuous delivery
slice everything 
generate options 
always assume there’s 
a simpler way 
defer commitment
exploit 
iterative 
development 
don’t know what i want Uncertainty-Jeff-Patton
#NoEstimates Thinking
“if you work on it 
only once you are 
not doing iterative 
development”
tech. EXCellence 
you’ll need to grow your design 
incrementally… 
…so you won’t get stuck and 
rewrite it every time you touch it
iterative development 
is the result of your 
well trained 
technical abilities
nurture your 
skills
technical xp 
practices 
pair programming 
simple design refactoring 
tdd
“#NoEstimates is merely 
a call to refocus on 
the agile manifesto” 
Woody Zuill
Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools 
Working software over Comprehensive documentation 
Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation 
Responding to change over Following a plan
Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools 
Working software over Comprehensive documentation 
Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation 
Responding to change over Following a plan 
#NoEstimates
Massimo Iacolare 
freelance 
.net and js expert 
quality addicted 
love shipping features 
love making users happy 
co-founder of 
the awesome
Lambacon - marzo 2015, bologna
Thanks 
Questions? 
joind.in/event/iad14

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