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What's Next in Vaccines? HIV, Malaria, MRSA, and 30 Other Vaccine
Targets in the 2010-2016 Pipeline
February 1, 2010
The global market for human vaccines has experienced strong growth in the past few
years, and R&D departments at many pharmaceutical companies are working on new
prophylactics, some of which may see near-term marketing. What illnesses may see a
vaccine option in the coming years? Which vaccines will have the most successful
business model? Who are the major companies in this market, and possible new
entrants? What can current vaccine success stories tell us about the future of the
vaccine market? This Kalorama Information report What's Next in Vaccines? examines
and estimates the market for vaccines that have yet to be launched, including the
following target areas:
Addiction
Allergy
Alzheimer’s Disease
Anthrax
Asthma
Campylobacter Infection
Chlamydia
Croup
Dengue Fever
Diabetes
Ebola
Epstein-Barr Virus
Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli
Helicobacter Pylori
Hepatitis
Herpesvirus
Hookworm
Hypertension
HIV/AIDS
Leishmaniasis

2. Malaria
MRSA Infection
Multiple Sclerosis
Obesity
Parainfluenza Virus Type 3
Parkinson’s Disease
Plague
Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Ross River Virus
Shigellosis
Smoking
Stroke
Tuberculosis
West Nile Virus
Some of these vaccines may see success; some could be the blockbusters of the
future. For marketers and industry watchers a knowledge of all of the potential vaccines
will be important to understand how pharma is seeking to renew bottom line with
aggressive prophylactic strategies, and who the winners and losers in the near future
may be. Alison Sahoo has looked at the vaccine market three times in as many years
for Kalorama Information, and in this report applies a knowledge of what companies
have done in the past to potential efforts.
There are a number of trends that will impact the industry that market watchers will want
to know about, and Kalorama Information has covered these trends; including: New
Vaccine Technologies, DNA Vaccination, Innovative Delivery Systems, Edible Vaccines,
Vaccine Patches, Funding Shortfalls. The report also discusses vaccine manufacturing
methods and the approval process. In addition, the report focuses on the emerging
vaccine activities of the following companies
Acambis plc
ACE BioSciences
AFFiRiS
ALK-Abello A/S
Allergy Therapeutics
Bavarian Nordic A/S
Baxter Healthcare
Celldex Therapeutics
Crucell
Cytos Biotechnology
GlaxoSmithKline
Hawaii Biotech
Intercell
Medimmune
Merck & Co. Inc
Mymetics

3. Nabi Biopharmaceuticals
Novartis
Opexa Therapeutics
Paladin Labs
Sanofi Pasteur
This report provides forecasted revenues for products in development out to 2020. The
report does not does not cover indication expansions of existing vaccine products, nor
does it cover vaccines for which products currently exist and are widely available, but
may need improvement. Development of vaccines that incorporate new production
methods (such as the migration of chicken eggs to mammal, yeast or other cells) is also
excluded. Cancer vaccines are excluded as Kalorama has an entire report on this topic.
Sales estimates for each market segment represent global revenues and are expressed
in current dollars. Information for this report was gathered from a wide variety of
published sources including company reports and filings, government documents, legal
filings, trade journals, newspapers and business press, analysts’ reports and other
sources.
Additional Information
New York, February 18, 2010 — In the not-too-distant future we could see diabetes,
the seventh leading cause of death in the U.S., treated with a vaccine. Several vaccine
candidates are in the pipeline, creating a possible $2.4 billion market for diabetes
vaccine products by 2020, according to healthcare market research publisher Kalorama
Information, who recently published a survey of emerging vaccine products titled:
What’s Next in Vaccines? HIV, Malaria, Rabies, MRSA, and 30 Other Vaccine
Targets in the 2010-2020 Pipeline.
Type I diabetes currently afflicts 35,000 people in the U.S. and about 700,000 people
worldwide each year. Type II diabetes affects more than 16 million Americans and over
200 million people worldwide.
Currently, other than a humanized anti-CD3 antibody with considerable side effects,
there is no other means to reverse new-onset type 1 diabetes. People with type II
diabetes must control their blood sugar levels with diet and exercise, and approximately
78% also take prescription medications to help control their diabetes. However, they
remain at risk for a large number of associated conditions including foot ulcers, heart
disease, kidney failure, and various skin conditions.
“Diabetes is a debilitating disease and a growing problem as waistlines continue to
expand,” said Bruce Carlson, publisher of Kalorama Information. “This is a desirable
market for any drug maker, and it’s not surprising that the pipeline is full.”

4. There are at least seven diabetes vaccine candidates in development. Most are in
Phase I testing and address type 1 diabetes. But one being developed by the Swedish
company Diamyd Medical is currently in a global Phase III trial, which includes 640
children and adolescents newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. The purpose of the
Phase III trial is to confirm and evaluate the ability of the Diamyd vaccine to arrest or
slow the autoimmune destruction of the body's insulin-producing cells, thereby
preserving the body's own ability to produce insulin. Initial analysis of data from the
Phase II trial showed that patients treated with the Diamyd vaccine early after diagnosis
have a clearly better diabetes status compared to the corresponding placebo group, 4
years after the injections.
Kalorama predicts a $100 million market from diabetes vaccines by 2012 as the first
product currently in Phase III trials enters the market, with growth amounting to $2.4
billion by 2020 as other products reach market.
Kalorama Information’s What’s Next in Vaccines? HIV, Malaria, Rabies, MRSA, and
30 Other Vaccine Targets in the 2010-2020 Pipeline. forecasts emerging vaccine
markets through 2020, previews the product pipeline and details the major players in
the industry.
About Kalorama Information
Kalorama Information supplies the latest in independent market research in the life
sciences, as well as a full range of custom research services.
Table of Contents
CHAPTER ONE: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Scope and Methodology
Overview
Emerging Vaccines and Forecasts
The Global Market for Emerging Vaccines
CHAPTER TWO: INTRODUCTION TO VACCINES
A Brief History: The Development of Vaccines
The Immune Response
Mechanism of Action
Types of Vaccines
Attenuated (Weakened) Live Viruses
Killed (Inactivated) Viruses
Toxoid Vaccines
Genetically Engineered/Modified Vaccines
Bacteria-Based Vaccines
Subunit Vaccines
Conjugate Vaccines
DNA Vaccination

5. Vaccine Approval Process
Trends Driving the Vaccines Market
CHAPTER THREE: EMERGING VACCINES
Introduction
Emerging Vaccines by Disease Area
Addiction
Smoking
Allergy
Alzheimer’s Disease
Anthrax
Asthma
Campylobacter Infection
Chlamydia
Croup
Dengue Fever
Diabetes
Ebola
Epstein-Barr Virus
Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli
Heart Attack
Helicobacter Pylori
Hepatitis
Hepatitis C
Hepatitis E
Herpesvirus
Hookworm
Hypertension
HIV/AIDS
Leishmaniasis
Malaria
MRSA Infection
Multiple Sclerosis
Obesity
Parainfluenza Virus Type 3
Parkinson’s Disease
Plague
Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Ross River Virus
Shigellosis
Stroke
Tuberculosis
West Nile Virus
CHAPTER FOUR: EMERGING VACCINES MARKET FORECAST
Global Market for Emerging Vaccines
Emerging Vaccines Market Segment Forecasts

6. Addiction
Allergies
Alzheimer’s Disease
Anthrax
Asthma
Campylobacter Infection
Chlamydia
Croup
Dengue Fever
Diabetes
Ebola
EBV Infection
ETEC Infection
Heart Attack
H. Pylori Infection
Hepatitis C and E
Herpesvirus Infection
Hookworm
Hypertension
HIV/AIDS
Leishmaniasis
Malaria
MRSA Infection
Multiple Sclerosis
Obesity
PIV-3 Infection
Parkinson’s Disease
Plague
RSV Infection
Ross River Virus Infection
Shigellosis
Stroke
Tuberculosis
West Nile Virus
CHAPTER FIVE: ISSUES AND TRENDS
New Vaccine Technologies
DNA Vaccination
Innovative Delivery Systems
Edible Vaccines
Mucosal Delivery
Intranasal Delivery
Vaccine Patches
Funding Shortfalls
CHAPTER SIX: COMPANY PROFILES
Acambis plc

7. History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
ACE BioSciences
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
AFFiRiS
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
ALK-Abello A/S
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Allergy Therapeutics
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Bavarian Nordic A/S
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Baxter Healthcare
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Celldex Therapeutics
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Crucell
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Cytos Biotechnology
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial
GlaxoSmithKline
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Hawaii Biotech
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Products

8. Financial Information
Intercell
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Products
Financial Information
Medimmune
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Products
Financial Information
Merck & Co. Inc
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Mymetics
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Products
Financial Information
Nabi Biopharmaceuticals
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Novartis
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Opexa Therapeutics
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Paladin Labs
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Sanofi Pasteur
History and Lines of Business
Emerging Vaccine Activities
Financial Information
Appendix
Company Directory
LIST OF EXHIBITS
CHAPTER ONE: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Table 1-1: Status of Emerging Vaccines by Disease
CHAPTER TWO: INTRODUCTION TO VACCINES

9. Table 2-1: Impact of Vaccines in the 20th Century Annual Morbidity in the 20th
Century vs 2008
Table 2-2: Vaccine-Preventable Diseases, December 2009
Table 2-3: VAERS Table of Reportable Events Following Vaccination
CHAPTER THREE: EMERGING VACCINES
Figure 3-1: Global Prevalence of Conditions Addressed by Emerging Vaccines
Figure 3-2: Comparative Mortality, Symptom Severity and Treatment Availability
for Conditions Addressed by Emerging Vaccines
Table 3-1: Emerging Vaccines by Disease and Stage of Testing
Figure 3-3: Comparative Severity Ranking of Addiction
Figure 3-4: Comparative Severity Ranking of Allergy
Figure 3-5: Comparative Severity Ranking of Alzheimer’s Disease
Figure 3-6: Comparative Severity Ranking of Anthrax
Figure 3-7: Comparative Severity Ranking of Asthma
Figure 3-8: Comparative Severity Ranking of Campylobacter Infection
Figure 3-9: Comparative Severity Ranking of Chlamydia
Figure 3-10: Comparative Severity Ranking of Croup
Figure 3-10: Comparative Severity Ranking of Dengue Fever
Figure 3-12: Comparative Severity Ranking of Diabetes
Figure 3-13: Comparative Severity Ranking of Ebola
Figure 3-14: Comparative Severity Ranking of EBV
Figure 3-15: Comparative Severity Ranking of ETEC
Figure 3-16: Comparative Severity Ranking of Heart Attack
Figure 3-17: Comparative Severity Ranking of H. Pylori Infection
Figure 3-10: Comparative Severity Ranking of Hepatitis C and E
Figure 3-19: Comparative Severity Ranking of Herpesvirus Infection
Figure 3-20: Comparative Severity Ranking of Hookworm
Figure 3-21: Comparative Severity Ranking of Hypertension
Figure 3-10: Comparative Severity Ranking of HIV/AIDS
Figure 3-23: Comparative Severity Ranking of Leishmaniasis
Figure 3-24: Comparative Severity Ranking of Malaria
Figure 3-25: Comparative Severity Ranking of MRSA Infection
Figure 3-26: Comparative Severity Ranking of Multiple Sclerosis
Figure 3-27: Comparative Severity Ranking of Obesity
Figure 3-28: Comparative Severity Ranking of PIV-3 Infection
Figure 3-29: Comparative Severity Ranking of Parkinson’s Disease
Figure 3-30: Comparative Severity Ranking of Plague
Figure 3-31: Comparative Severity Ranking of RSV Infection
Figure 3-32: Comparative Severity Ranking of Ross River Virus Infection
Figure 3-33: Comparative Severity Ranking of Shigellosis
Figure 3-34: Comparative Severity Ranking of Stroke
Figure 3-35: Comparative Severity Ranking of Tuberculosis
Figure 3-36: Comparative Severity Ranking of West Nile Virus Infection
CHAPTER FOUR: EMERGING VACCINES MARKET FORECAST
Table 4-1: World Market for Emerging Vaccines by Type, 2009-2020

10. Table 4-2: World Market for Emerging Vaccines by Type, 2009-2020
Table 4-3: World Addiction Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-4: World Allergy Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-5: World Alzheimer’s Disease Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-6: World Anthrax Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-7: World Asthma Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-8: World Campylobacter Infection Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-9: World Chlamydia Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-10: World Croup Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-11: World Dengue Fever Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-12: World Diabetes Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-13: World Ebola Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-14: World EBVVaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-15: World ETECVaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-16: World Heart Attack Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-17: World H. Pylori Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-18: World Hepatitis C and E Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-19: World Herpesvirus Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-20: World Hookworm Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-21: World Hypertension Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-22: World HIV/AIDS Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-23: World Leishmaniasis Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-24: World Malaria Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-25: World MRSA Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-26: World Multiple Sclerosis Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-27: World Obesity Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-28: World PIV-3 Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-29: World Parkinson’s Disease Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-30: World Plague Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-31: World RSV Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-32: World Ross River Virus Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-33: World Shigellosis Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-34: World Stroke Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-35: World Tuberculosis Vaccine Market 2009-2020
Table 4-36: World West Nile Virus Vaccine Market 2009-2020
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