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The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and
Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration

May 1, 2010


On the heels of more than two years of recession, the foodservice industry continues to
feel the results of discretionary spending pullbacks, and while it has worked margin
miracles, must nevertheless work its way out of a triple threat: declining guest traffic,
declining average check, and declines sales. Going forward, foodservice operators
across all segments will need a walk the fine line by balancing incentives and discounts
with added value and brand enhancement, working toward weaning consumers from
the downward spiral of price shopping.

The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trend
Momentum and Migration provides unique insights into consumers’ evolving relationship
with the foodservice industry, helping restaurant operators position their brands—and
menus—accordingly. Highlights of the study include 1) directional consumer behavioral
and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts’ proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook
Tracker, which identifies the consumers who will lead near-term foodservice growth; 2)
Via its Consumer Restaurant Usage and Spend Tracker, unique analysis of meal usage
by restaurant type, party size, and party spend, to help target consumers who can bring
in higher guest check averages; 3) Share of Stomach sales analysis that trends
foodservice sales by segment against its retail counterpart, and provides quarterly
same-store comparable trends and guest traffic frequency trends for more than 50
restaurant brands by segment—all of which provide a thorough sense of where the
industry is heading; and 4) current and future menu pricing strategies and detailed
consumer brand affiliations, to provide competitive insight.

Woven throughout U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010, readers will also find granular
consumer insight provided via “consumer drilldowns” that shed insight on a host of
pertinent guest traffic and incenting themes. Themes addressed include the degree to
which healthy and new menu items influence choosing a restaurant versus choosing a
menu item; the benefits of positioning gift cards & loyalty programs to healthy eaters
and online order placers; targeting party spend by budget and health attitudes; and
psychographic analyses of male and female Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big
Eaters.
While the report forecasts foodservice industry sales in detail through 2012, simply put,
the restaurant industry will face sales challenges through the reporting period. In an
environment where growth—even stasis—means taking share, knowing where menu
pricing trends, sales trends, menu selection trends, and convenience trends are going is
paramount. This new foodservice report provides needed consultation on these themes,
helping industry participants what position restaurant menus and services for
tomorrow’s consumer.

Read an excerpt from this report below.

Data Methodology

Our methodology rests on a balance of data-centric expertise and holistic
understanding, maximizing accuracy and depth of analysis. Report data is derived from
thorough analysis of a host of sources, including the following:

      Proprietary company interviews
      Proprietary consumer surveys
      The Experian Simmons National Consumer Study
      The U.S. Census Bureau
      The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey
      The U.S. Department of Agriculture
      The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
      The Bureau of Labor Statistics Retail Trade Survey
      Company presentations
      Trade associations and trade magazines
      Academic journals
      Industry conferences
      Restaurant menus

Coverage areas

In addition to supporting analysis (such as an introduction, an executive summary, and
terms & definitions), U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010 covers the following major
topics. Please note that the final published version of this report may contain addition
information. Charts/graphs, as well as major header topics, are included.



Additional Information

Market Insights: A Selection From The Report
Fast food remains traffic king: 4 in 10 restaurant visits in past month were to fast
food/QSR

As part of our proprietary February 2010 consumer survey, Packaged Facts measured
restaurant usage and mean usage frequency by restaurant type.

As expected, mean use of “fast food/quick service restaurants” was substantially higher
than any other restaurant type—about three times higher than for runner-up causal
restaurants—a testament fast food’s strong value, low-cost, and convenience
propositions.

With an aggregate mean use of all restaurant types of 10.8 in the past month, fast
food/quick-service visits represent almost half (49%) of all visits, followed by casual
restaurants (17%), family restaurants (15%) and coffeehouses (15%).

The Restaurant Generation: 18-34 year-olds still moving through restaurant doors

The relevance of youth to the restaurant industry is demonstrated by higher average
mean usage among 18-34s for every restaurant type shown.

This demographic group grew into adulthood at a time when dining out became
commonplace. Having gone through their first recession (leaving aside the mini-
recession that took place in 2001), these consumers’ lifestyles nevertheless remain
strongly attached to the emotional and practical benefits that restaurants provide them,
and they are at an age when socializing among friends and dating is paramount.

We believe that continuing to engage this group, more than any other age group, will be
the key to strengthening restaurant sales in the long run, as the macroeconomic trends
shaping the world today will shape the spending behavior of this group tomorrow.




Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Executive Summary
     Scope and Methodology
     Scope
     Methodology
     Macroeconomic summary
     Relevant facts and figures
     Consumer Outlook Tracker
     Relevant facts and figures
     Consumer Restaurant Spend Tracker
     Relevant facts and figures
     Share of Stomach: Sales Analysis
Relevant facts and figures
      Health, budgeting and technology
      Relevant facts and figures
      Menu regulation
      Relevant facts and figures
      Restaurant & menu selection influencers
      Relevant facts and figures
      Restaurant & menu selection influencers: Restaurant attributes and
      recommendations
      Relevant facts and figures
      Restaurant & menu selection influencers: Restaurant and menu discounts &
      incentives
      Relevant facts and figures
      Share of Stomach: day part analysis
      Relevant facts and figures
      Psychographic groups: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters
      Brand Analysis: selected insights
      Starbucks
      McDonald’s
      Burger King
      Wendy’s
      Domino’s
      Chipotle
      Panera Bread
      Cracker Barrel
      Denny’s
      P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
      The Cheesecake Factory
      Darden Restaurants, Inc
      Ruth’s Chris Steak House

Chapter 2: Restaurant Macroeconomic Analysis
     Consumers’ heavy burden will not lift soon
     Consumer Confidence
     Unemployment
     Personal Savings Rate
     Graph 2-1: Unemployment, Savings Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010
     Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Home Meal Use Continues to
     Gain Ground
     Graph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View
     Graph 2-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View
     Unemployment trends adversely affect everyday consumer; QSR and family
     segments to suffer
     Graph 2-4: Unemployment Rate, Education Level, Adults Aged 25+, 2007-10
     Graph 2-5: Unemployment Rate, Adults Aged 16+, 2007-10
     Regional weakness
Unemployment forecast: a little less bleak in 2011, and just a little less bleak than
      that in 2012
      Graph 2-6: Unemployment Forecast, 2010-12
      Stock and housing declines take toll on household wealth; rebound to 2006
      levels a long way off
      Graph 2-7: Household Net Worth, 2005-09
      Graph 2-8: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case Shiller Index
      Food at home gains pricing edge
      Graph 2-9: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2009
      Graph 2-10: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, July 2008 -
      December 2009
      Slight uptick in food inflation expected for 2010
      Graph 2-11: PPI: Selected Commodities, 2007-2009
      Graph 2-12: CPI: Selected Processed Foods and Feeds, 2007-2009

Chapter 3: Consumer Restaurant Outlook
     Note on reading charts
     Consumers’ burden will not lift soon: 2534s with $50K+ HH show promise
     Consumer Confidence
     Current Situation vs. Expectations
     Graph 3-1: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 2007-2010
     Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Significant Shift to Home Food
     Spend Continues
     Graph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior
     Near Future Portends More of the Same
     Graph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior
     Hope resides in positive perceptions about future job security and treating
     self/others
     Graph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood
     Restaurant spend to be led by 25-34s?
     Graph 3-5: Restaurant Visits, by Age: 2008-09
     Graph 3-6: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age
     Graph 3-7: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age
     Graph 3-8: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age
     A split along income lines suggests increasing divergence in use by HH income
     Graph 3-9: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by HH Income
     Graph 3-10: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by HH Income
     Graph 3-11: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by HH
     Income
     Age & Income Consumer Drill-Downs Reinforce Importance of $50K+ 25-34s to
     present and future
     Graph 3-12: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age and
     Income
     Graph 3-13: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age and Income
     Graph 3-14: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by
     Age and Income
     Appendix: Consumer Survey
Chapter 4: Consumer Restaurant Usage & Spend Tracker
     Note on reading charts
     Triple threat: declining guest counts, guest checks, and sales
     Graph 4-1: Average Check, Guest Traffic, and Sales Trends: 2002-09
     Graph 4-2: Annual Meals Purchased at Restaurants, Per Person: 2000-09
     Fast food remains traffic king: 4 in 10 restaurant visits in past month were to fast
     food/QSR
     Graph 4-3: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type
     Restaurant use near complete saturation; street stands now used by 17% of
     restaurant goers
     Graph 4-4: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
     The Restaurant Generation: 18-34 year-olds still moving through restaurant
     doors
     Graph 4-5: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by
     Age
     Graph 4-6: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age
     Discretionary income translates to more frequent use; fast food an egalitarian
     exception
     Graph 4-7: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by
     HH Income
     Graph 4-8: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH
     Income
     Minorities above-average users across most restaurant types
     Graph 4-9: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by
     Race/Ethnicity
     Graph 4-10: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by
     Race/Ethnicity
     Total Spend Award goes to 25-34s
     Graph 4-11: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis, 2010,
     by Age
     Average mean cost increases with HH income; party size highest among middle-
     income users
     Graph 4-12: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend & Party Size Analysis, February
     2010, by HH Income
     If they love eating healthy, they’ll love spending money
     Graph 4-13: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend & Party Size Analysis: Food &
     Health Attitudes, 2010
     Appendix: Consumer Survey

Chapter 5: Share of Stomach: Sales Analysis
     Restaurant Performance Index on upswing but still exhibits contraction
     Graph 5-1: Restaurant Performance Index, 2006-2010
     Food away from home sales get a leg up on food at home sales
     Graph 5-2: Food Away From Home versus Food at Home, 2004-2008
     Food away from home: market size and forecast: 2004-11
     Graph 5-3: Food Away From Home, by Segment, 2004-11
     Eating and drinking places: market size and forecast: 2004-11
Full-service segment trends
Limited-service segment trends
Graph 5-4: Eating and Drinking Places: Sales Growth, 2004-11
Graph 5-5: Eating and Drinking Places: Percentage Sales Growth, 2004-11
Quarterly same-store sales comparisons, by brand and restaurant segment
Note on same-store sales
Summary analysis
Fast food/QSR burger segment
Graph 5-6: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Fast Food/QSR Burger,
2008-09
Fast food/QSR fast casual segment
Graph 5-7: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Fast Food/QSR Fast
Casual, 2008-09
Other fast food/QSR
Graph 5-8: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, QSR Other, 2008-09
Family restaurants
Graph 5-9: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Family, 2008-09
Casual bar & grill
Graph 5-10: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Bar & Grill, 2008-
09
Casual international
Graph 5-11: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual International,
2008-09
Other casual restaurants
Graph 5-12: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Other, 2008-09
Upscale restaurants
Graph 5-13: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Upscale, 2008-09
Guest traffic count and frequency comparisons, 2007-09
Summary analysis
Frequency counts: definition
Guest traffic: LSR, family and casual restaurants: 2007-09
Graph 5-14: Guest Traffic: LSR, Family, and Casual, 2007-09
Guest traffic: Snack & beverage: 2007-09
Graph 5-15: Guest Traffic: Snack & Beverage, 2007-09
Guest traffic: Fast food/QSR burger: 2007-09
Graph 5-16: Guest Traffic: Fast Food/QSR Burger, 2007-09
Guest traffic: Fast food/QSR chicken: 2007-09
Graph 5-17: Guest Traffic: Fast Food/QSR Chicken, 2007-09
Guest traffic: Fast food/QSR pizza: 2007-09
Graph 5-18: Guest Traffic: Fast Food/QSR Pizza, 2007-09
Guest traffic: Buffet/cafeteria: 2007-09
Graph 5-19: Guest Traffic: Buffet/Cafeteria, 2007-09
Guest traffic: Family restaurants: 2007-09
Graph 5-20: Guest Traffic: Family Restaurants, 2007-09
Guest traffic: Casual bar & grill: 2007-09
Graph 5-21: Guest Traffic: Casual Bar & Grill, 2007-09
Guest traffic: Casual international: 2007-09
      Graph 5-22: Guest Traffic: Casual International, 2007-09
      Guest traffic: Casual steakhouse: 2007-09
      Graph 5-23: Guest Traffic: Casual Steakhouse, 2007-09

Chapter 6: Health, Budgeting & Technology: Consumer Analysis
     Note on reading charts
     Consumer food, health and budgeting attitudes suggest challenge and
     opportunity
     Graph 6-1: Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by HH Income
     Graph 6-2: Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by Age
     Graph 6-3: Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by HH Income
     Appendix: Consumer Survey

Chapter 7: Health and Menu Regulation
     A healthful America: whether we like it or not
     Don’t forget: It’s about money
     Graph 7-1: Prevalence of Adult Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity,
     1988-2006
     Graph 7-2: Prevalence of Overweight Among Children and Adolescents, 1988-
     2006
     Why pick on restaurants?
     February 2010 report weighs impact of food away from home on diet quality
     How to address menu labeling

Chapter 8: Restaurant & Menu Selection Influencers: an Overview
     Note on reading charts
     Convenience and familiarity more apt to influence decision than discounts
     Graph 8-1: Restaurant Selection Factors, February-March 2010
     Among restaurant attributes, environmentally friendly practices least apt to
     influence
     Graph 8-2: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March
     2010
     Direct experience with restaurant more likely to influence than recommendations
     Graph 8-3: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity,
     February-March 2010
     A range of discounts and incentives share influence among consumers
     Graph 8-4: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-
     March 2010
     Healthy and new menu items not a significant restaurant draw
     Graph 8-5: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010
     On the menu, combo plates and mix-and-match options spur selections
     Graph 8-6: Menu Item Selection Factors, February-March 2010
     Appendix: Consumer Survey

Chapter 9: Restaurant Selection Analysis: Attributes, Recommendations & Other
Preferences
Note on reading charts
      Practical but memorable, with a twist
      Graph 9-1: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, 2010
      Environmental pulse quickens with youth
      Graph 9-2: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, 2010, by Age
      Special services, ambience, and quick service influenced by HH income
      Graph 9-3: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, 2010, by HH
      Income
      Take me to . . . where I’ve already been!
      Graph 9-4: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity,
      February-March 2010
      Age: Reputation and past experience versus recommendations, reviews and
      something new
      Graph 9-5: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, 2010,
      by Age
      Higher HH income; higher use of online reviews
      Graph 9-6: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, 2010,
      by HH Income
      Convenience comes in many flavors
      Ordering technology continues to evolve; virtual ordering platforms to continue
      rapid adoption
      Graph 9-7: Technology-Related Ordering and Research Behaviors, by Age and
      HH Income
      But the pizza players continue to lead on innovation.
      Free internet wireless is the rule and expectation
      Adapting to QSR efficiency
      Text coupons on the rise
      iPhone apps
      Reimaging the rule, not the exception
      Dual branding trend widens
      Spreading the word and learning from patrons via social networking
      Appendix: Consumer Survey

Chapter 10: Discounting & Incentives, Food Attributes, and Menu Attributes
     Note on reading charts
     Influence of discounts and incentives on consumers
     A range of discounts and incentives share influence among consumers
     Graph 10-1: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, 2010
     Degree of influence correlates with youth
     Graph 10-2: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, by Age
     Specials & combos spur bottom end; gift cards & loyalty programs spur middle
     and high end
     Graph 10-3: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, 2010, by HH
     Income
     Take note of different needs by race & ethnicity
     Graph 10-4: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, 2010, by
     Race/Ethnicity
Higher interest in rewards programs among healthy eaters and online order
placers
Graph 10-5: Food and Health Attitudes, 2010, by Discounts & Incentives
Yes, food matters
Graph 10-6: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, 2010
To 18-34s: Here’s to your health! Something new? Something small?
Graph 10-7: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, 2010, by Age
With heavier pocketbooks comes wider interest in cuisine, healthful items &
smaller portions
Graph 10-8: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, 2010, by HH Income
Menu item strategies that incent selection
Graph 10-9: Menu Item Selection Factors, 2010
Fickle youth, strongly persuaded by all but smaller portions
Graph 10-10: Menu Selection Factors, 2010, by Age
HH income: LTOs & lower prices draw lower end; waiter recs & new items the
higher end
Graph 10-11: Menu Selection Factors, 2010, by HH Income
Menu item selection influence among men & women by healthy eating
characteristics
Graph 10-12: Healthy Attitudes, Gender Column, Menu Selection Factors, 2010
Menu item selection influence among men & women by budgeting characteristics
Graph 10-13: Budget Attitudes, Gender Column, by Menu Selection Factors,
2010
In the past three months, which of the following has influenced your selection
from the restaurant menu?
Menu pricing strategy a top priority
Fast food/QSR must avoid extreme affordability death spiral
Notable fast food/QSR initiatives
With “Barbell Strategy,” Burger King plays catch up with McDonald’s on value
Wendy’s: “Real” food at a real value
Arby’s adjusts to value pricing
Starbucks pricing restructure nears completion
Sonic also hones value message
Domino’s pizza introduction draws new fans
CKE stays upstream
Coffeehouses embrace value bundling
Other notable promotions
Fast casual QSR segment innovates in face of recession
This promotion brought to you by Facebook
Family restaurants hope everyday value is the answer; we believe it is
Denny’s: everyday value with entry-point pricing across all dayparts
Bob Evans to emphasize value for money
With petite menus and extra promotions, casual restaurants walk a careful line
Darden balances the brand positioning of Olive Garden, Longhorn Steakhouse,
and Red Lobster
Smaller portions: a smart move with long-term potential
Chili’s, Cheesecake Factory, Champps, and California Pizza Kitchen downsize
      portions
      International aspirations: P.F. Chang’s China Bistro and McCormick & Schmick’s
      To pair or not to pair: Applebee’s versus Chili’s
      Other notable developments: P.F. Chang’s does lunch; Red Robin sets $5.99
      price point; CPKI Adventure Card
      Upscale: the fixe is in, for now, but for how long?
      Highbrow, meet comfort food
      Loyalty/rewards programs to pick up steam
      Graph 10-14: Top U.S. loyalty program memberships ranked by industry
      Up next: Chipotle
      Up next: Panera Bread
      A case for loyalty: it’s all about ROI
      The marketer’s view
      The consumers’ view
      Case study: Levy Restaurants & Bistro 110
      Bistro 110 Préféré membership
      Starbucks tweaks Customer Loyalty Program
      Other developments
      American Express teams with Dunkin’ Donuts to reward for recharging shopping
      card
      BJ’s rolls out new loyalty programs
      Kona Grill ramps up Konavore Loyalty Program
      Gift card programs expand; we see an oversaturated market ahead
      Red Robin incents gift cards with Bonus Bucks
      Cracker Barrel gift card sales up 14%
      The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. gift card redemptions up 25%
      Ruth’s Chris gift card sales top $40 million per year

Chapter 11: Day Part & Ordering Behavior Trend Analysis
     Note on reading charts
     Breakfast activity belies industry sales impact
     Breakfast sales rise to 10.2% of restaurant-related meal spend in 2008
     Graph 11-1: Restaurant Meal Sales Per Consumer Unit, by Daypart: 2005-08
     In 2010, dinner day part accounts for half of all usage; breakfast less than 10%
     Graph 11-2: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010
     With age comes wisdom—and breakfast restaurant use
     Graph 11-3: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Age
     For Black and Asian restaurant goers, sweet snacks and “just a beverage” more
     popular
     Graph 11-4: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by
     Race/Ethnicity
     Dinner ordering behavior: two menu items per person is the norm
     Graph 11-5: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010
     25-34s most likely to order appetizers, alcoholic beverages; 65+ diners most
     likely to order dessert
     Graph 11-6: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by Age
Alcoholic beverage use 60% more likely among $75K+ diners
      Graph 11-7: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by HH Income
      Day part trends
      Day part pricing trends
      Breakfast now a mixed bag: near-term growth prospects challenged; long-term
      growth promising
      McDonald’s racks up $7.5 billion in 2009 breakfast sales; $1 value menu to
      pressure competition
      Burger King addresses breakfast challenges
      Wendy’s to reenter breakfast wars
      Chick-fil-A adds yogurt parfait
      Fast casual: Einstein Noah and Panera Bread tread water
      Family restaurants: Denny’s
      Panera Bread scores at lunch
      Dinner impact: Sonic and Denny’s
      Snacking moves
      Happy Hour attempts to rescue afternoon business

Chapter 12: Psychographic Profile Analysis
     Note on reading charts
     Meet the psychographic groups
     Consumer food, health and budgeting attitudes dues suggest both challenge and
     opportunity
     Graph 12-1: Psychographic Profile Analysis, by Age
     Graph 12-2: Psychographic Profile Analysis, by HH Income
     Graph 12-3: Psychographic Profile Analysis, by Restaurant Discounts and
     Incentives
     Graph 12-4: Psychographic Profile Analysis, by Menu Selection Factor

Chapter 13: Restaurant Brand Analysis
     Note on food lifestyle segmentation charts
     Note on low- and high-frequency users
     Starbucks Corporation
     Recession response
     Menu pricing strategies and customer incentives
     Healthful and “foodie” user groups important to the brand
     Graph 13-1: Starbucks Usage Frequency Analysis, Health Attitudes
     Graph 13-2: Starbucks Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
     Starbucks core low- and high-frequency users
     Graph 13-3: Starbucks core demographics: low- and high-frequency users
     Starbucks by the numbers
     Graph 13-4: Starbucks by the numbers
     McDonald’s Corporation
     2009-10 menu pricing strategy
     Going forward
     Core customers: Convenience and Ease and Weekend Cooks
Graph 13-5: McDonald’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle
Segmentation
Snack Wrap expansion may tweak user and non-user interest
Graph 13-6: McDonald’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Snacking Behavior
McDonald’s core low- and high-frequency users
Graph 13-7: McDonald’s core demographics: low- and high-frequency users
McDonald’s by the numbers
Graph 13-8: McDonald’s by the numbers
Burger King Holdings, Inc.
Barbell strategy
Reinvigorating breakfast
Attempts to broaden fan appeal
Convenience and Variety on a Budget
Graph 13-9: Burger King Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle
Segmentation
Snacking: opportunity or lost opportunity?
Graph 13-10: Burger King Usage Frequency Analysis, Snacking Behavior
Burger King core low- and high-frequency users
Graph 13-11: Burger King core demographics: low- and high-frequency users
Burger King by the numbers
Graph 13-12: Burger King by the numbers
Wendy’s
2009-10 strategy
“Real” food at a real value
Wendy’s to reenter breakfast wars
Snacking
Remodeling
Acquisitions?
“Food Lifestyle” segmentation groups a blend of McDonald’s and Burger King
Graph 13-13: Wendy’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Wendy’s core low- and high-frequency users
Graph 13-14: Wendy’s core demographics: low- and high-frequency users
Wendy’s by the numbers
Graph 13-15: Wendy’s by the numbers
Domino’s Pizza, Inc
In brief: profile
2009-10 strategy
PULSE helps drives online transactions
An impulse-driven higher-frequency user
Graph 13-16: Domino’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Graph 13-17: Domino’s Usage Frequency Analysis, New Product Interaction
Domino’s core low- and high-frequency users
Graph 13-18: Domino’s core demographics: low- and high-frequency users
Domino’s by the numbers
Graph 13-19: Domino’s by the numbers
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Competitive positioning: Customization; Food with Integrity
2009-10 strategy
On the menu
Restaurant expansion plans
Loyalty program
Variety on a Budget draws a crowd
Graph 13-20: Chipotle Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Graph 13-21: Chipotle by the numbers
Panera Bread Company
2009-10 strategy
Daypart positioning
Loyalty program
Variety on a Budget
Graph 13-22: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle
Segmentation
Panera Bread core low- and high-frequency users
Graph 13-23: Panera Bread core demographics: low- and high-frequency users
Panera Bread by the numbers
Graph 13-24: Panera Bread by the numbers
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.
Restaurant operations
Retail operations
2009-10 strategy
Menu item innovation
Reformed Traditional users may seek untapped health appeal
Graph 13-25: Cracker Barrel Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle
Segmentation
Cracker Barrel core low- and high-frequency users
Graph 13-26: Cracker Barrel core demographics: low- and high-frequency users
Cracker Barrel by the numbers
Graph 13-27: Cracker Barrel by the numbers
Denny’s Corporation
Recession challenges
2009-10 menu strategy
2010 shift to everyday value supported with LTO entrees
Weekend Cooks help drive sales
Graph 13-28: Denny’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Graph 13-29: Denny’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Competition
Denny’s core low- and high-frequency users
Graph 13-30: Denny’s core demographics: low- and high-frequency users
P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
2009-10 menu strategy and innovation
Graph 13-31: P.F. Chang’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle
Segmentation
The Cheesecake Factory
Menu strategy and innovation
Coupons can fly
       Graph 13-32: The Cheesecake Factory Usage Frequency Analysis, Coupon
       Interest
       Darden Restaurants, Inc.
       Menu pricing strategy
       Reimaging in the works
       Food lifestyle analysis: Red Lobster versus Olive Garden
       Graph 13-33: Red Lobster Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle
       Segmentation
       Graph 13-34: Olive Garden Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle
       Segmentation
       Graph 13-35: Olive Garden Usage Frequency Analysis, Health Attitudes
       Olive Garden & Red Lobster core low- and high-frequency users
       Graph 13-36: Olive Garden & Red Lobster core demographics: low- and high-
       frequency users
       Ruth’s Chris Steak House
       On the menu
       Revenue building strategies and menu moves
       Appendix on food lifestyle segmentation charts



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U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration, The

  • 1. Get more info on this report! The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration May 1, 2010 On the heels of more than two years of recession, the foodservice industry continues to feel the results of discretionary spending pullbacks, and while it has worked margin miracles, must nevertheless work its way out of a triple threat: declining guest traffic, declining average check, and declines sales. Going forward, foodservice operators across all segments will need a walk the fine line by balancing incentives and discounts with added value and brand enhancement, working toward weaning consumers from the downward spiral of price shopping. The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trend Momentum and Migration provides unique insights into consumers’ evolving relationship with the foodservice industry, helping restaurant operators position their brands—and menus—accordingly. Highlights of the study include 1) directional consumer behavioral and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts’ proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook Tracker, which identifies the consumers who will lead near-term foodservice growth; 2) Via its Consumer Restaurant Usage and Spend Tracker, unique analysis of meal usage by restaurant type, party size, and party spend, to help target consumers who can bring in higher guest check averages; 3) Share of Stomach sales analysis that trends foodservice sales by segment against its retail counterpart, and provides quarterly same-store comparable trends and guest traffic frequency trends for more than 50 restaurant brands by segment—all of which provide a thorough sense of where the industry is heading; and 4) current and future menu pricing strategies and detailed consumer brand affiliations, to provide competitive insight. Woven throughout U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010, readers will also find granular consumer insight provided via “consumer drilldowns” that shed insight on a host of pertinent guest traffic and incenting themes. Themes addressed include the degree to which healthy and new menu items influence choosing a restaurant versus choosing a menu item; the benefits of positioning gift cards & loyalty programs to healthy eaters and online order placers; targeting party spend by budget and health attitudes; and psychographic analyses of male and female Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters.
  • 2. While the report forecasts foodservice industry sales in detail through 2012, simply put, the restaurant industry will face sales challenges through the reporting period. In an environment where growth—even stasis—means taking share, knowing where menu pricing trends, sales trends, menu selection trends, and convenience trends are going is paramount. This new foodservice report provides needed consultation on these themes, helping industry participants what position restaurant menus and services for tomorrow’s consumer. Read an excerpt from this report below. Data Methodology Our methodology rests on a balance of data-centric expertise and holistic understanding, maximizing accuracy and depth of analysis. Report data is derived from thorough analysis of a host of sources, including the following: Proprietary company interviews Proprietary consumer surveys The Experian Simmons National Consumer Study The U.S. Census Bureau The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey The U.S. Department of Agriculture The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission The Bureau of Labor Statistics Retail Trade Survey Company presentations Trade associations and trade magazines Academic journals Industry conferences Restaurant menus Coverage areas In addition to supporting analysis (such as an introduction, an executive summary, and terms & definitions), U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010 covers the following major topics. Please note that the final published version of this report may contain addition information. Charts/graphs, as well as major header topics, are included. Additional Information Market Insights: A Selection From The Report
  • 3. Fast food remains traffic king: 4 in 10 restaurant visits in past month were to fast food/QSR As part of our proprietary February 2010 consumer survey, Packaged Facts measured restaurant usage and mean usage frequency by restaurant type. As expected, mean use of “fast food/quick service restaurants” was substantially higher than any other restaurant type—about three times higher than for runner-up causal restaurants—a testament fast food’s strong value, low-cost, and convenience propositions. With an aggregate mean use of all restaurant types of 10.8 in the past month, fast food/quick-service visits represent almost half (49%) of all visits, followed by casual restaurants (17%), family restaurants (15%) and coffeehouses (15%). The Restaurant Generation: 18-34 year-olds still moving through restaurant doors The relevance of youth to the restaurant industry is demonstrated by higher average mean usage among 18-34s for every restaurant type shown. This demographic group grew into adulthood at a time when dining out became commonplace. Having gone through their first recession (leaving aside the mini- recession that took place in 2001), these consumers’ lifestyles nevertheless remain strongly attached to the emotional and practical benefits that restaurants provide them, and they are at an age when socializing among friends and dating is paramount. We believe that continuing to engage this group, more than any other age group, will be the key to strengthening restaurant sales in the long run, as the macroeconomic trends shaping the world today will shape the spending behavior of this group tomorrow. Table of Contents Chapter 1: Executive Summary Scope and Methodology Scope Methodology Macroeconomic summary Relevant facts and figures Consumer Outlook Tracker Relevant facts and figures Consumer Restaurant Spend Tracker Relevant facts and figures Share of Stomach: Sales Analysis
  • 4. Relevant facts and figures Health, budgeting and technology Relevant facts and figures Menu regulation Relevant facts and figures Restaurant & menu selection influencers Relevant facts and figures Restaurant & menu selection influencers: Restaurant attributes and recommendations Relevant facts and figures Restaurant & menu selection influencers: Restaurant and menu discounts & incentives Relevant facts and figures Share of Stomach: day part analysis Relevant facts and figures Psychographic groups: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters Brand Analysis: selected insights Starbucks McDonald’s Burger King Wendy’s Domino’s Chipotle Panera Bread Cracker Barrel Denny’s P.F. Chang’s China Bistro The Cheesecake Factory Darden Restaurants, Inc Ruth’s Chris Steak House Chapter 2: Restaurant Macroeconomic Analysis Consumers’ heavy burden will not lift soon Consumer Confidence Unemployment Personal Savings Rate Graph 2-1: Unemployment, Savings Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010 Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Home Meal Use Continues to Gain Ground Graph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View Graph 2-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View Unemployment trends adversely affect everyday consumer; QSR and family segments to suffer Graph 2-4: Unemployment Rate, Education Level, Adults Aged 25+, 2007-10 Graph 2-5: Unemployment Rate, Adults Aged 16+, 2007-10 Regional weakness
  • 5. Unemployment forecast: a little less bleak in 2011, and just a little less bleak than that in 2012 Graph 2-6: Unemployment Forecast, 2010-12 Stock and housing declines take toll on household wealth; rebound to 2006 levels a long way off Graph 2-7: Household Net Worth, 2005-09 Graph 2-8: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case Shiller Index Food at home gains pricing edge Graph 2-9: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2009 Graph 2-10: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, July 2008 - December 2009 Slight uptick in food inflation expected for 2010 Graph 2-11: PPI: Selected Commodities, 2007-2009 Graph 2-12: CPI: Selected Processed Foods and Feeds, 2007-2009 Chapter 3: Consumer Restaurant Outlook Note on reading charts Consumers’ burden will not lift soon: 2534s with $50K+ HH show promise Consumer Confidence Current Situation vs. Expectations Graph 3-1: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 2007-2010 Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Significant Shift to Home Food Spend Continues Graph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior Near Future Portends More of the Same Graph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior Hope resides in positive perceptions about future job security and treating self/others Graph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood Restaurant spend to be led by 25-34s? Graph 3-5: Restaurant Visits, by Age: 2008-09 Graph 3-6: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age Graph 3-7: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age Graph 3-8: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age A split along income lines suggests increasing divergence in use by HH income Graph 3-9: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by HH Income Graph 3-10: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by HH Income Graph 3-11: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by HH Income Age & Income Consumer Drill-Downs Reinforce Importance of $50K+ 25-34s to present and future Graph 3-12: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age and Income Graph 3-13: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age and Income Graph 3-14: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age and Income Appendix: Consumer Survey
  • 6. Chapter 4: Consumer Restaurant Usage & Spend Tracker Note on reading charts Triple threat: declining guest counts, guest checks, and sales Graph 4-1: Average Check, Guest Traffic, and Sales Trends: 2002-09 Graph 4-2: Annual Meals Purchased at Restaurants, Per Person: 2000-09 Fast food remains traffic king: 4 in 10 restaurant visits in past month were to fast food/QSR Graph 4-3: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type Restaurant use near complete saturation; street stands now used by 17% of restaurant goers Graph 4-4: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010 The Restaurant Generation: 18-34 year-olds still moving through restaurant doors Graph 4-5: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age Graph 4-6: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age Discretionary income translates to more frequent use; fast food an egalitarian exception Graph 4-7: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income Graph 4-8: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income Minorities above-average users across most restaurant types Graph 4-9: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Race/Ethnicity Graph 4-10: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Race/Ethnicity Total Spend Award goes to 25-34s Graph 4-11: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis, 2010, by Age Average mean cost increases with HH income; party size highest among middle- income users Graph 4-12: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend & Party Size Analysis, February 2010, by HH Income If they love eating healthy, they’ll love spending money Graph 4-13: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend & Party Size Analysis: Food & Health Attitudes, 2010 Appendix: Consumer Survey Chapter 5: Share of Stomach: Sales Analysis Restaurant Performance Index on upswing but still exhibits contraction Graph 5-1: Restaurant Performance Index, 2006-2010 Food away from home sales get a leg up on food at home sales Graph 5-2: Food Away From Home versus Food at Home, 2004-2008 Food away from home: market size and forecast: 2004-11 Graph 5-3: Food Away From Home, by Segment, 2004-11 Eating and drinking places: market size and forecast: 2004-11
  • 7. Full-service segment trends Limited-service segment trends Graph 5-4: Eating and Drinking Places: Sales Growth, 2004-11 Graph 5-5: Eating and Drinking Places: Percentage Sales Growth, 2004-11 Quarterly same-store sales comparisons, by brand and restaurant segment Note on same-store sales Summary analysis Fast food/QSR burger segment Graph 5-6: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Fast Food/QSR Burger, 2008-09 Fast food/QSR fast casual segment Graph 5-7: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Fast Food/QSR Fast Casual, 2008-09 Other fast food/QSR Graph 5-8: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, QSR Other, 2008-09 Family restaurants Graph 5-9: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Family, 2008-09 Casual bar & grill Graph 5-10: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Bar & Grill, 2008- 09 Casual international Graph 5-11: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual International, 2008-09 Other casual restaurants Graph 5-12: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Other, 2008-09 Upscale restaurants Graph 5-13: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Upscale, 2008-09 Guest traffic count and frequency comparisons, 2007-09 Summary analysis Frequency counts: definition Guest traffic: LSR, family and casual restaurants: 2007-09 Graph 5-14: Guest Traffic: LSR, Family, and Casual, 2007-09 Guest traffic: Snack & beverage: 2007-09 Graph 5-15: Guest Traffic: Snack & Beverage, 2007-09 Guest traffic: Fast food/QSR burger: 2007-09 Graph 5-16: Guest Traffic: Fast Food/QSR Burger, 2007-09 Guest traffic: Fast food/QSR chicken: 2007-09 Graph 5-17: Guest Traffic: Fast Food/QSR Chicken, 2007-09 Guest traffic: Fast food/QSR pizza: 2007-09 Graph 5-18: Guest Traffic: Fast Food/QSR Pizza, 2007-09 Guest traffic: Buffet/cafeteria: 2007-09 Graph 5-19: Guest Traffic: Buffet/Cafeteria, 2007-09 Guest traffic: Family restaurants: 2007-09 Graph 5-20: Guest Traffic: Family Restaurants, 2007-09 Guest traffic: Casual bar & grill: 2007-09 Graph 5-21: Guest Traffic: Casual Bar & Grill, 2007-09
  • 8. Guest traffic: Casual international: 2007-09 Graph 5-22: Guest Traffic: Casual International, 2007-09 Guest traffic: Casual steakhouse: 2007-09 Graph 5-23: Guest Traffic: Casual Steakhouse, 2007-09 Chapter 6: Health, Budgeting & Technology: Consumer Analysis Note on reading charts Consumer food, health and budgeting attitudes suggest challenge and opportunity Graph 6-1: Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by HH Income Graph 6-2: Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by Age Graph 6-3: Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by HH Income Appendix: Consumer Survey Chapter 7: Health and Menu Regulation A healthful America: whether we like it or not Don’t forget: It’s about money Graph 7-1: Prevalence of Adult Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity, 1988-2006 Graph 7-2: Prevalence of Overweight Among Children and Adolescents, 1988- 2006 Why pick on restaurants? February 2010 report weighs impact of food away from home on diet quality How to address menu labeling Chapter 8: Restaurant & Menu Selection Influencers: an Overview Note on reading charts Convenience and familiarity more apt to influence decision than discounts Graph 8-1: Restaurant Selection Factors, February-March 2010 Among restaurant attributes, environmentally friendly practices least apt to influence Graph 8-2: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010 Direct experience with restaurant more likely to influence than recommendations Graph 8-3: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, February-March 2010 A range of discounts and incentives share influence among consumers Graph 8-4: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February- March 2010 Healthy and new menu items not a significant restaurant draw Graph 8-5: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010 On the menu, combo plates and mix-and-match options spur selections Graph 8-6: Menu Item Selection Factors, February-March 2010 Appendix: Consumer Survey Chapter 9: Restaurant Selection Analysis: Attributes, Recommendations & Other Preferences
  • 9. Note on reading charts Practical but memorable, with a twist Graph 9-1: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, 2010 Environmental pulse quickens with youth Graph 9-2: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, 2010, by Age Special services, ambience, and quick service influenced by HH income Graph 9-3: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, 2010, by HH Income Take me to . . . where I’ve already been! Graph 9-4: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, February-March 2010 Age: Reputation and past experience versus recommendations, reviews and something new Graph 9-5: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, 2010, by Age Higher HH income; higher use of online reviews Graph 9-6: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, 2010, by HH Income Convenience comes in many flavors Ordering technology continues to evolve; virtual ordering platforms to continue rapid adoption Graph 9-7: Technology-Related Ordering and Research Behaviors, by Age and HH Income But the pizza players continue to lead on innovation. Free internet wireless is the rule and expectation Adapting to QSR efficiency Text coupons on the rise iPhone apps Reimaging the rule, not the exception Dual branding trend widens Spreading the word and learning from patrons via social networking Appendix: Consumer Survey Chapter 10: Discounting & Incentives, Food Attributes, and Menu Attributes Note on reading charts Influence of discounts and incentives on consumers A range of discounts and incentives share influence among consumers Graph 10-1: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, 2010 Degree of influence correlates with youth Graph 10-2: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, by Age Specials & combos spur bottom end; gift cards & loyalty programs spur middle and high end Graph 10-3: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, 2010, by HH Income Take note of different needs by race & ethnicity Graph 10-4: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, 2010, by Race/Ethnicity
  • 10. Higher interest in rewards programs among healthy eaters and online order placers Graph 10-5: Food and Health Attitudes, 2010, by Discounts & Incentives Yes, food matters Graph 10-6: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, 2010 To 18-34s: Here’s to your health! Something new? Something small? Graph 10-7: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, 2010, by Age With heavier pocketbooks comes wider interest in cuisine, healthful items & smaller portions Graph 10-8: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, 2010, by HH Income Menu item strategies that incent selection Graph 10-9: Menu Item Selection Factors, 2010 Fickle youth, strongly persuaded by all but smaller portions Graph 10-10: Menu Selection Factors, 2010, by Age HH income: LTOs & lower prices draw lower end; waiter recs & new items the higher end Graph 10-11: Menu Selection Factors, 2010, by HH Income Menu item selection influence among men & women by healthy eating characteristics Graph 10-12: Healthy Attitudes, Gender Column, Menu Selection Factors, 2010 Menu item selection influence among men & women by budgeting characteristics Graph 10-13: Budget Attitudes, Gender Column, by Menu Selection Factors, 2010 In the past three months, which of the following has influenced your selection from the restaurant menu? Menu pricing strategy a top priority Fast food/QSR must avoid extreme affordability death spiral Notable fast food/QSR initiatives With “Barbell Strategy,” Burger King plays catch up with McDonald’s on value Wendy’s: “Real” food at a real value Arby’s adjusts to value pricing Starbucks pricing restructure nears completion Sonic also hones value message Domino’s pizza introduction draws new fans CKE stays upstream Coffeehouses embrace value bundling Other notable promotions Fast casual QSR segment innovates in face of recession This promotion brought to you by Facebook Family restaurants hope everyday value is the answer; we believe it is Denny’s: everyday value with entry-point pricing across all dayparts Bob Evans to emphasize value for money With petite menus and extra promotions, casual restaurants walk a careful line Darden balances the brand positioning of Olive Garden, Longhorn Steakhouse, and Red Lobster Smaller portions: a smart move with long-term potential
  • 11. Chili’s, Cheesecake Factory, Champps, and California Pizza Kitchen downsize portions International aspirations: P.F. Chang’s China Bistro and McCormick & Schmick’s To pair or not to pair: Applebee’s versus Chili’s Other notable developments: P.F. Chang’s does lunch; Red Robin sets $5.99 price point; CPKI Adventure Card Upscale: the fixe is in, for now, but for how long? Highbrow, meet comfort food Loyalty/rewards programs to pick up steam Graph 10-14: Top U.S. loyalty program memberships ranked by industry Up next: Chipotle Up next: Panera Bread A case for loyalty: it’s all about ROI The marketer’s view The consumers’ view Case study: Levy Restaurants & Bistro 110 Bistro 110 Préféré membership Starbucks tweaks Customer Loyalty Program Other developments American Express teams with Dunkin’ Donuts to reward for recharging shopping card BJ’s rolls out new loyalty programs Kona Grill ramps up Konavore Loyalty Program Gift card programs expand; we see an oversaturated market ahead Red Robin incents gift cards with Bonus Bucks Cracker Barrel gift card sales up 14% The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. gift card redemptions up 25% Ruth’s Chris gift card sales top $40 million per year Chapter 11: Day Part & Ordering Behavior Trend Analysis Note on reading charts Breakfast activity belies industry sales impact Breakfast sales rise to 10.2% of restaurant-related meal spend in 2008 Graph 11-1: Restaurant Meal Sales Per Consumer Unit, by Daypart: 2005-08 In 2010, dinner day part accounts for half of all usage; breakfast less than 10% Graph 11-2: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010 With age comes wisdom—and breakfast restaurant use Graph 11-3: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Age For Black and Asian restaurant goers, sweet snacks and “just a beverage” more popular Graph 11-4: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity Dinner ordering behavior: two menu items per person is the norm Graph 11-5: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010 25-34s most likely to order appetizers, alcoholic beverages; 65+ diners most likely to order dessert Graph 11-6: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by Age
  • 12. Alcoholic beverage use 60% more likely among $75K+ diners Graph 11-7: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by HH Income Day part trends Day part pricing trends Breakfast now a mixed bag: near-term growth prospects challenged; long-term growth promising McDonald’s racks up $7.5 billion in 2009 breakfast sales; $1 value menu to pressure competition Burger King addresses breakfast challenges Wendy’s to reenter breakfast wars Chick-fil-A adds yogurt parfait Fast casual: Einstein Noah and Panera Bread tread water Family restaurants: Denny’s Panera Bread scores at lunch Dinner impact: Sonic and Denny’s Snacking moves Happy Hour attempts to rescue afternoon business Chapter 12: Psychographic Profile Analysis Note on reading charts Meet the psychographic groups Consumer food, health and budgeting attitudes dues suggest both challenge and opportunity Graph 12-1: Psychographic Profile Analysis, by Age Graph 12-2: Psychographic Profile Analysis, by HH Income Graph 12-3: Psychographic Profile Analysis, by Restaurant Discounts and Incentives Graph 12-4: Psychographic Profile Analysis, by Menu Selection Factor Chapter 13: Restaurant Brand Analysis Note on food lifestyle segmentation charts Note on low- and high-frequency users Starbucks Corporation Recession response Menu pricing strategies and customer incentives Healthful and “foodie” user groups important to the brand Graph 13-1: Starbucks Usage Frequency Analysis, Health Attitudes Graph 13-2: Starbucks Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Starbucks core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-3: Starbucks core demographics: low- and high-frequency users Starbucks by the numbers Graph 13-4: Starbucks by the numbers McDonald’s Corporation 2009-10 menu pricing strategy Going forward Core customers: Convenience and Ease and Weekend Cooks
  • 13. Graph 13-5: McDonald’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Snack Wrap expansion may tweak user and non-user interest Graph 13-6: McDonald’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Snacking Behavior McDonald’s core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-7: McDonald’s core demographics: low- and high-frequency users McDonald’s by the numbers Graph 13-8: McDonald’s by the numbers Burger King Holdings, Inc. Barbell strategy Reinvigorating breakfast Attempts to broaden fan appeal Convenience and Variety on a Budget Graph 13-9: Burger King Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Snacking: opportunity or lost opportunity? Graph 13-10: Burger King Usage Frequency Analysis, Snacking Behavior Burger King core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-11: Burger King core demographics: low- and high-frequency users Burger King by the numbers Graph 13-12: Burger King by the numbers Wendy’s 2009-10 strategy “Real” food at a real value Wendy’s to reenter breakfast wars Snacking Remodeling Acquisitions? “Food Lifestyle” segmentation groups a blend of McDonald’s and Burger King Graph 13-13: Wendy’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Wendy’s core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-14: Wendy’s core demographics: low- and high-frequency users Wendy’s by the numbers Graph 13-15: Wendy’s by the numbers Domino’s Pizza, Inc In brief: profile 2009-10 strategy PULSE helps drives online transactions An impulse-driven higher-frequency user Graph 13-16: Domino’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Graph 13-17: Domino’s Usage Frequency Analysis, New Product Interaction Domino’s core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-18: Domino’s core demographics: low- and high-frequency users Domino’s by the numbers Graph 13-19: Domino’s by the numbers Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
  • 14. Competitive positioning: Customization; Food with Integrity 2009-10 strategy On the menu Restaurant expansion plans Loyalty program Variety on a Budget draws a crowd Graph 13-20: Chipotle Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Graph 13-21: Chipotle by the numbers Panera Bread Company 2009-10 strategy Daypart positioning Loyalty program Variety on a Budget Graph 13-22: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Panera Bread core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-23: Panera Bread core demographics: low- and high-frequency users Panera Bread by the numbers Graph 13-24: Panera Bread by the numbers Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Restaurant operations Retail operations 2009-10 strategy Menu item innovation Reformed Traditional users may seek untapped health appeal Graph 13-25: Cracker Barrel Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Cracker Barrel core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-26: Cracker Barrel core demographics: low- and high-frequency users Cracker Barrel by the numbers Graph 13-27: Cracker Barrel by the numbers Denny’s Corporation Recession challenges 2009-10 menu strategy 2010 shift to everyday value supported with LTO entrees Weekend Cooks help drive sales Graph 13-28: Denny’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Graph 13-29: Denny’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Competition Denny’s core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-30: Denny’s core demographics: low- and high-frequency users P.F. Chang’s China Bistro 2009-10 menu strategy and innovation Graph 13-31: P.F. Chang’s Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation The Cheesecake Factory Menu strategy and innovation
  • 15. Coupons can fly Graph 13-32: The Cheesecake Factory Usage Frequency Analysis, Coupon Interest Darden Restaurants, Inc. Menu pricing strategy Reimaging in the works Food lifestyle analysis: Red Lobster versus Olive Garden Graph 13-33: Red Lobster Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Graph 13-34: Olive Garden Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation Graph 13-35: Olive Garden Usage Frequency Analysis, Health Attitudes Olive Garden & Red Lobster core low- and high-frequency users Graph 13-36: Olive Garden & Red Lobster core demographics: low- and high- frequency users Ruth’s Chris Steak House On the menu Revenue building strategies and menu moves Appendix on food lifestyle segmentation charts Available immediately for Online Download at http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2624812 US: 800.298.5699 UK +44.207.256.3920 Int'l: +1.240.747.3093 Fax: 240.747.3004